整理 | GLP1减重宝典内容团队 近日，湘雅二医院研究人员发表在柳叶刀子刊eClinicalMedicine上的一项系统综述和Meta分析，研究了在FDA和欧洲药监局批准上市的减肥 药。 结果表明， 对于减肥，替尔泊肽是首选，其次是司美格鲁肽 。考虑到心脏代谢风险因素， 替尔泊肽显示出最佳的降血压和降血糖效果，而司 美格鲁肽和利拉鲁肽可降低 MACE 风险 。纳曲酮/安非他酮有升高血压的风险。芬特明/托吡酯有较高的心理副作用风险，应谨慎使用。尽管 存在与研究异质性相关的局限性，但这些发现为不同个体的体重管理策略提供了宝贵的见解。 ▍研究背景 超重和肥胖对个人和社会构成了严重的健康挑战。本研究旨在通过总结最近关于减肥药物疗法的研究来促进肥胖的个性化治疗，重点关注其对 减肥、心脏代谢健康、心理结果和不良事件的影响。 ▍ 研究 方法 本系统评价和荟萃分析包括从开始到 2024 年 6 月 8 日对 Web of Science、PubMed 和 Cochrane 对照试验中心注册库的搜索。纳入了评估美国 食品药品监督管理局 (FDA) 或欧洲药品管理局 (EMA) 批准用于治疗超重或肥胖的减肥药物疗法的随机对照试 ...

Summary of US Large Cap Pharmaceuticals: Mid-Year State Of Play Industry Overview - The report focuses on the US Large Cap Pharmaceuticals sector, analyzing key companies such as ABBV, LLY, JNJ, MRK, BMY, and PFE [6][5][32]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Revenue Growth and Stability**: Projected revenues from growth/stable products for 2025-2030 are as follows: ABBV at $10.39 billion, LLY at $3.06 billion, JNJ at $1.68 billion, MRK at $1.37 billion, BMY at $0.60 billion, and PFE at $0.54 billion [5]. 2. **Patent Cliff Exposure**: The number of years to the next major patent cliff varies, with ABBV and MRK at 3.5 years, while LLY and JNJ face longer timelines [5]. 3. **Market Sentiment**: The report indicates a "Launch Trade" momentum, with high investor psychology impacting stock performance, particularly for ABBV and GILD as popular longs, while MRK is viewed as a funding underweight [6]. 4. **Macro Environment**: A friendlier US macro backdrop with diminished recession risks and benign inflation data is noted, which could complicate the case for large-cap biopharma relative to other sectors [6]. 5. **Drug Pricing Uncertainty**: Ongoing debates regarding drug pricing and potential implementation of Most Favored Nation (MFN) pricing are highlighted as significant uncertainties affecting investor sentiment [6]. 6. **Key Catalysts for 2H25**: Important upcoming catalysts include LLY's ATTAIN-1 data for an oral obesity pill, BMY's ADEPT-2 Phase 3 data for Alzheimer's treatment, and MRK's CADENCE trial outcomes [6]. Additional Important Considerations 1. **Tariff Implications**: The report discusses potential tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with an expected starting rate of 25% on transfer pricing, potentially dropping to around 10% based on negotiations [6]. 2. **Investor Positioning**: The healthcare sector is experiencing a positioning cleanse, with Medtech favored over large-cap biopharma [6]. 3. **Earnings Setup**: Investor sentiment is more comfortable with ABBV, PFE, and LLY, while concerns are raised regarding BMY's performance [6]. 4. **Government Exposure**: The report notes that government end-market exposure varies significantly among companies, with LLY and MRK having over 35% exposure to Medicare/Medicaid revenues [5]. Conclusion The US Large Cap Pharmaceuticals sector is navigating a complex landscape characterized by macroeconomic factors, regulatory uncertainties, and evolving investor sentiment. Key companies are positioned differently based on their revenue growth potential, patent cliff exposure, and government market dependencies. The upcoming catalysts and tariff implications will be critical in shaping the sector's performance in the second half of 2025.

2025.07. 06 本文字数：5463，阅读时长大约9分钟 作者 | 第一财经 钱童心 伴随着国产GLP-1减重药玛仕度肽（商品名：信尔美）的商业化落地，国内减重药市场格局迎来了 新的变化。全球两大减重药巨头诺和诺德与礼来在中国市场将面临更激烈的竞争环境，减重药未来价 格是否会出现松动也引发关注。 减重药市场迎来"新玩家" 7月3日，信达生物的GLP-1减重创新药玛仕度肽"首方"落地。北京大学人民医院分泌科主任医师纪 立农教授为一名超重合并脂肪肝的患者开出全国首张处方，标志着玛仕度肽正式进入国内公立医院。 这距离该药物获批仅一周之隔。下周起，该药物将陆续进入全国各大公立医院。 相比之下，诺和诺德的司美格鲁肽减重适应症（商品名：诺和盈）从获批到正式商业化开出公立医 院"首方"历时近5个月；礼来的替尔泊肽减重适应症从获批到上市也经历了近半年时间。 "国内厂商没有产能供应限制的问题。"一位业内人士对第一财经记者。另据记者了解，直到目前为 止，司美格鲁肽与替尔泊肽均尚未在国内实现本土化生产。 在信达生物此前召开的产品上市发布会上，信达生物首席财务官由飞表示，对于玛仕度肽的市场潜 力，公司非常有信心。在渠道拓展方面 ...

For investors focused on the long game, there is little reason to sell -- at least, so long as a company generates solid returns through consistently improving financial results, regularly increases its dividend (if it pays one), and maintains strong growth prospects. Although it's sometimes difficult to find corporations that can do all that over long periods, stocks of this caliber do exist.Consider the following two healthcare leaders: Zoetis (ZTS 0.06%) and Eli Lilly (LLY 0.16%). They have checked all o ...

整理 | GLP1减重宝典内容团队 这些言论是周三在JAMA的一篇评论文章中发表的，由世卫组织官员Jeremy Farrar、Francesco Branca和Francesca Celletti撰写。 在文章中，专家们称肥胖是一个"大流行"的公共卫生问题， 影响全球10多亿人，几乎每个国家的病例都在增加。2019年，肥胖相关的非传染性 疾病夺走了500万人的生命。到 2030 年，全球肥胖相关成本可能达到 3 万亿美元 。 据世界卫生组织称，GLP-1受体激动剂目前正以高度医疗化的方式使用。 医疗保健系统需要制定更全面的解决方案，重点关注健康促进、疾病 预防和政策干预。 世界卫生组织官员认为， GLP-1 肥胖疗法的迅速崛起为该行业和医疗保健系统提供了对抗肥胖大流行的有力武器，但目前 的部署方式有可能无法实现这一目标。 在此背景下，GLP-1 受体激动剂的兴起和日益普及可能会对肥胖护理产生"变革性"影响，为各国卫生系统提供有效的药物治疗选择。 "然而，单独的药物治疗不足以解决肥胖危机，"世卫组织官员写道，并补充说，医疗保健系统必须采取整体应对措施，"确保普遍提供预防、治 疗和管理疾病的服务，使之易于获得、负 ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 increased by 1.7% this week, while the Nasdaq rose by 1.6%[3] - Small-cap value stocks (Russell 2000 Value) outperformed with a gain of 4.6%, compared to small-cap growth (Russell 2000 Growth) at 2.6%[3] Sector Performance - The technology hardware and equipment sector led with a 5.4% increase, followed by banks at 4.2% and durable goods and apparel at 3.9%[3] - Four sectors experienced declines, with the automotive and components sector down by 1.4%[3] Fund Flows - Estimated fund inflow for S&P 500 components was $2.34 billion this week, a significant decrease from $18.17 billion the previous week[4] - The technology hardware and equipment sector saw the highest inflow at $1.4 billion, while healthcare equipment and services experienced an outflow of $2.62 billion[4] Earnings Forecast - The dynamic F12M EPS forecast for S&P 500 components was adjusted upward by 0.2% this week, following a 0.3% increase last week[5] - The semiconductor products and equipment sector had the largest upward revision at 0.5%, while the automotive sector was revised down by 2.1%[5] Economic Risks - Key risks include uncertainties in economic fundamentals, international political situations, U.S. fiscal policy, and Federal Reserve monetary policy[5]

整理 | GLP1减重宝典内容团队 ▍诺和+礼来，新减肥药减脂又增肌引发巨大关注 礼来公司近日公布的一项Ⅱ期临床试验数据显示，将Bimagrumab与司美格鲁肽联合使用，在体重管理方面取得了显著疗效。 在为期48周的试 验中，接受联合治疗的受试者体重平均下降22.1%，其中92.8%的减重来自脂肪减少。 相比之下，单独使用司美格鲁肽的受试者体重减少 15.7%，其中71.8%为脂肪减少。这表明Bimagrumab在促进脂肪代谢的同时有助于保留肌肉组织，为肥胖治疗提供了一种更全面的策略。 这一组合疗法标志着肥胖治疗领域的重要进展。司美格鲁肽是一种由诺和诺德开发的GLP-1受体激动剂，已被广泛用于减重治疗。但GLP-1类 药物一个常见问题是减重过程中可能导致肌肉流失。 礼来研发的Bimagrumab是一种靶向活化素II型受体的抗体，该受体在调节肌肉生长和维 持中发挥关键作用。 通过抑制该受体，Bimagrumab能够在减重过程中保护肌肉质量，与司美格鲁肽形成互补。 临床数据显示，两药联合使用具有协同效应。接受组合治疗的受试者不仅减重幅度更大，还保留了更多的瘦体重，相较于单用司美格鲁肽者表 现更优。这对于存在肌少症 ...

阿尔茨海默+减肥药，阿尔茨海默领域服务欧美药企，为小分子减肥药提供中间体，客户包括礼来、辉瑞 等巨头，在中美均设有研发生产中心，这家公司可为客户提供含氟药物中间体或原料药的定制服务。 前言 《电报解读》是一款主打时效性和专业性的即时资讯解读产品。侧重于挖掘重要事件的投资价值、分析 产业链公司以及解读重磅政策的要点。即时为用户提供快讯信息对市场影响的投资参考，将信息的价值 用专业的视角、朴素的语言、图文并茂的方式呈现给用户。 ...

7月3日，迪哲医药公告称，舒沃哲（通用名：舒沃替尼片）的新药上市申请，正式获得美国食品药品监 督管理局（FDA）批准，用于既往经含铂化疗治疗时或治疗后出现疾病进展，并且经FDA批准的试剂盒 检测确认，存在表皮生长因子受体（EGFR）20号外显子插入突变（exon20ins）的局部晚期或转移性非 小细胞肺癌（NSCLC）的成人患者。 点评：舒沃哲是中国首个独立研发、在美获批的全球首创新药，此次获批有望提升迪哲医药在国际市场 的声誉，也为国产创新药出海提供了新的示范案例。 NO.3 先声药业恩泽舒获批上市，为中国首个铂耐药卵巢癌全人群适用靶向药 7月3日，先声药业旗下创新药子公司先声再明宣布，其在中国开发的新一代抗肿瘤血管生成（抗VEGF 抗体）一类生物新药恩泽舒（通用名：注射用苏维西塔单抗）已正式获中国国家药品监督管理局批准上 市。恩泽舒获批适应证为联合紫杉醇、多柔比星脂质体或拓扑替康用于铂耐药后接受过不超过1种系统 治疗的成人复发性卵巢癌、输卵管癌或原发性腹膜癌的治疗。 每经记者｜许立波 每经编辑｜张益铭 丨2025年7月4日 星期五丨 NO.1 礼来替尔泊肽获批第三项适应证 7月3日，礼来宣布，其GIP/G ...

RT qw (@QwQiao)current stonk holdings- goog: gemini is a favorite to win ai. youtube and google cloud benefit from ai. waymo winning automation is not priced in. even if search gets killed by ai itll take years. sergey is back. generally avoiding us tech stonks due to valuation but goog is reasonably priced.- eli lilly: signs that glp-1 drugs may cure chronic diseases beyond fat loss. market is too big to ignore. based in the us which has the biggest chronically unhealthy population. been consolidating for ...