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Is Eli Lilly Stock a Buy? Here's What the Market Isn't Pricing in Yet.
The Motley Fool· 2025-08-16 12:45
Core Viewpoint - Viking Therapeutics is emerging as a potential competitor to Eli Lilly in the obesity treatment market, which is valued at $100 billion, particularly in light of recent challenges faced by Lilly's oral weight-loss pill [1][6]. Financial Performance of Eli Lilly - Eli Lilly reported a 38% revenue increase to $15.56 billion in the second quarter, with Mounjaro generating $5.2 billion (up 68%) and Zepbound delivering $3.38 billion (up 172% in the U.S.) [4]. - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to $60 billion to $62 billion, with earnings per share expected between $21.75 and $23, reflecting a 61% increase in quarterly earnings to $6.31 per share and an 85% gross margin [5]. Challenges Faced by Eli Lilly - The results of the ATTAIN-1 trial for Orforglipron showed only 12.4% weight loss at the highest dose, which is lower than competitors like Novo Nordisk's Wegovy, which achieves 14% to 15% weight loss [6]. - This underperformance could limit Lilly's addressable oral market and weaken its mass-market capture strategy, impacting reimbursement rates [7]. Viking Therapeutics' Competitive Edge - Viking Therapeutics' VK-2735 is a dual GLP-1/GIP agonist that could disrupt Lilly's market position, with a subcutaneous formulation in Phase 3 and an oral version in Phase 2 [8][9]. - The subcutaneous version showed a 14.7% weight loss with better tolerability, while the oral version demonstrated weight loss persistence six days after the last dose, indicating potential durability [10]. Market Positioning and Timing - VK-2735 is targeting patients with a body mass index of 30 to 38, a segment that is likely to generate recurring revenue due to their desire for effective results without severe side effects [11]. - The timing of VK-2735's potential launch around 2027 could coincide with challenges for Lilly's Orforglipron, creating a significant competitive threat [12]. Valuation Concerns for Eli Lilly - Eli Lilly's market cap is based on a forward earnings multiple of 29, which assumes continued dominance in the obesity market, but the entry of VK-2735 could disrupt this expectation [13]. - Any loss of market share to Viking could significantly impact Lilly's growth and challenge its premium valuation, especially as its obesity treatments account for over half of its revenue [14][15]. Strategic Recommendations - Investors may consider taking profits from Lilly's recent performance and monitor Viking's Phase 2 oral results expected in the second half of 2025, as this could signal a significant shift in the market dynamics [16].
“减肥双雄”市值距离高点已蒸发超6000亿美元,今年就跌掉1个“爱马仕”
华尔街见闻· 2025-08-16 10:27
Core Viewpoint - The two major weight loss drug manufacturers, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, are facing a crisis of investor confidence, having lost a combined market value of $252 billion this year, equivalent to the entire market value of Hermès [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Novo Nordisk's stock has dropped 49% this year, resulting in a market value loss of $166 billion, while Eli Lilly's stock has decreased by 11%, losing $86 billion [1] - Since their peak last year, the total market value loss for these companies exceeds $600 billion [1][2] - The obesity treatment market is experiencing a significant adjustment, with expectations returning to a more rational level [1] Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Trump administration's policies are increasing market concerns, with both companies receiving letters demanding lower drug prices [1][3] - A total of 15 pharmaceutical companies received similar price reduction requests, indicating a shift towards aggressive trade and pricing policies [3] - The broader pharmaceutical sector has collectively lost $128 billion in market value this year, with the top ten pharmaceutical groups in the US and Europe now valued at $2.8 trillion [3] Group 3: Internal Confidence Signals - Despite challenges, there are signs that market sentiment may be bottoming out, as five executives at Eli Lilly purchased stock following disappointing earnings, marking the first insider buying in three years [5] - CEO Dave Ricks made a significant purchase of $1.1 million, indicating confidence in the company's future [5] - The current low price-to-earnings ratio for the pharmaceutical sector may set the stage for a future rebound [5]
“减肥双雄”市值距离高点已蒸发超6000亿美元,今年就跌掉1个“爱马仕”
美股IPO· 2025-08-16 07:23
Core Viewpoint - Investor enthusiasm for obesity treatment drugs is waning due to concerns over the rise of generic drugs, disappointing results from next-generation drug trials, and aggressive price reduction demands from the Trump administration [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The two major weight loss drug manufacturers, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, have faced a crisis of investor confidence, losing a total of $252 billion in market value this year, equivalent to the entire market value of Hermès [3]. - Since their peak last year, the total market value loss has exceeded $600 billion, with Novo Nordisk's stock down 49% and Eli Lilly down 11% [3]. - Novo Nordisk has lost $166 billion in market value, while Eli Lilly has lost $86 billion [3]. Group 2: Product and Market Dynamics - The once-promising obesity treatment business is undergoing a sharp adjustment, with products like Novo Nordisk's Wegovy and Ozempic, and Eli Lilly's Zepbound and Mounjaro, seeing a return to rational market expectations [4]. - Novo Nordisk has lost $367 billion in market value since its peak in June last year, with a decline of over two-thirds [5]. - Eli Lilly's stock hit a low not seen since February 2024, primarily due to disappointing trial results for its oral weight loss drug orforglipron, resulting in a 29% decline and a $250 billion market value loss since its historical peak [5]. Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The Trump administration's tough stance on the pharmaceutical industry has become a major concern for investors, with 15 other pharmaceutical companies also receiving price reduction demands [7]. - Broader concerns over tariffs and price reductions have impacted the entire pharmaceutical sector, with the top ten pharmaceutical groups in the US and Europe losing a combined $128 billion in market value this year [7]. Group 4: Insider Confidence Signals - Despite challenges, there are signs that market sentiment may be bottoming out, as five directors and executives at Eli Lilly purchased stock following disappointing earnings, marking the first insider buying in three years [9]. - CEO Dave Ricks made a significant purchase of $1.1 million in stock, indicating a belief that the sell-off was excessive [9]. - The current low price-to-earnings ratio for the pharmaceutical sector may lay the groundwork for a future rebound, highlighting the vulnerability of even the most promising medical innovations to policy changes and market sentiment fluctuations [9].
“减肥双雄”市值距离高点已蒸发超6000亿美元,今年就跌掉1个“爱马仕”
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-16 06:59
Core Insights - The two major weight loss drug manufacturers, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, are facing a crisis of investor confidence, having lost a total market value of $252 billion this year, equivalent to the entire market value of Hermès [1] - Investor enthusiasm for obesity treatment drugs is waning due to concerns over the rise of generic drugs and disappointing results from next-generation drug trials [1] - The pharmaceutical sector's price-to-earnings ratio has dropped to its lowest level in over a decade, despite having just completed a strong earnings season [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Novo Nordisk's stock has fallen by 49% this year, resulting in a market value loss of $166 billion, while Eli Lilly's stock has decreased by 11%, losing $86 billion [1] - Since its peak in June last year, Novo Nordisk has lost $367 billion in market value, a decline of over two-thirds [2] - Eli Lilly's stock hit a low not seen since February 2024, primarily due to disappointing trial results for its oral weight loss drug orforglipron, leading to a 29% drop in market value since its historical peak [2] Group 2: Policy Uncertainty - The Trump administration's tough stance on the pharmaceutical industry is a major concern for investors, with 15 pharmaceutical companies receiving price reduction requests [3] - The broader concerns over tariffs and price reductions have impacted the entire pharmaceutical sector, with the top ten pharmaceutical groups in the US and Europe losing a combined $128 billion in market value this year [3] - Investors are questioning the rationale for investing in the pharmaceutical sector amid these challenges, with some preferring to invest in AI stocks instead [3] Group 3: Insider Confidence - Despite the challenges, there are signs that market sentiment may be bottoming out, as five directors and executives at Eli Lilly purchased stock following disappointing earnings, marking the first insider buying in three years [4] - CEO Dave Ricks made a significant purchase of $1.1 million in stock, the largest in over a decade, signaling that insiders believe the sell-off has been excessive [5] - The current low price-to-earnings ratio in the pharmaceutical sector may lay the groundwork for a future rebound, despite the ongoing challenges [5]
速递|礼来:响应特朗普,英国地区替尔泊肽涨价170%
GLP1减重宝典· 2025-08-16 03:04
Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly (LLY.N) announced a significant price increase for its weight loss drug Mounjaro in the UK, with a maximum increase of 170%, coinciding with the White House's push for pharmaceutical companies to raise prices in Europe to facilitate price reductions in the US [2][6]. Pricing Strategy - The new pricing also applies to the version of Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes, with the highest dosage monthly cost rising from £122 to £330 [3]. - This price increase only affects self-paying patients, as those receiving prescriptions through the National Health Service (NHS) in the UK are not impacted due to separate agreements covering costs [4]. - Eli Lilly stated that the initial pricing of Mounjaro in the UK was "significantly lower" than in three other European markets to avoid delays in entering the NHS channel, and the current adjustment aims to align UK pricing more closely with Europe [5]. Market Context - The decision highlights the pressure on global drug pricing, with the US being the largest pharmaceutical market where prescription drug costs are significantly higher than in other developed countries [6]. - The former administration under Trump aimed to reduce drug prices in the US while encouraging pharmaceutical companies to increase prices abroad [6]. - Eli Lilly's CEO, David Ricks, mentioned that narrowing the price gap between the US and Europe is a long-term goal, but European governments remain reluctant to accept higher drug prices [6]. Competitive Landscape - Mounjaro was launched in the UK in February 2024, while competitor Novo Nordisk's weight loss drug Wegovy entered the UK market in September 2023 [7].
Novo Nordisk's Lead Fades, Eli Lilly Holds Course For Outsized Gains, Says Analyst
Benzinga· 2025-08-15 17:54
Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly plans to significantly increase the list price of its weight-loss and type 2 diabetes drug Mounjaro in the UK, reflecting heightened competition in the obesity drug market, particularly with Novo Nordisk [1][2]. Pricing Strategy - Starting in September, the highest monthly dose of Mounjaro will see a price increase from £122 to £330, marking a 170% rise to align with prices in other European markets [1]. - Bank of America Securities reported that Eli Lilly intends to double GLP-1 drug prices in the UK, although the specific customers affected remain unclear [2]. Market Context - Similar price adjustments are anticipated in other European markets, where GLP-1 manufacturers typically lack formal pricing agreements with governments, resulting in out-of-pocket costs for patients [3]. - The pricing strategy aligns with a "most favored nation" (MFN) pricing concept discussed recently, aiming to raise drug prices outside the U.S. while lowering them domestically [3][4]. Company Initiatives - Eli Lilly has initiated pricing strategies, including the "Lilly Direct" direct-to-consumer channel for Zepbound and other medications, which aims to bypass pharmacy benefit managers [5]. - While direct-to-consumer initiatives may enhance access, they are expected to have minimal impact on profit and loss, particularly for obesity drugs [6]. Investor Sentiment - Investors in the obesity sector are increasingly anxious due to the competitive landscape, with Novo Nordisk's lead diminishing and Eli Lilly's stock volatility [7]. - Bank of America maintains a Buy rating for Eli Lilly, projecting a price target of $900, citing strong growth potential at a reasonable valuation [7]. Stock Performance - Eli Lilly's stock was trading higher by 0.85% at $690.27 as of the last check [8].
礼来13亿美元投资了背靠英伟达的AI制药商
第一财经· 2025-08-15 08:28
Core Insights - Eli Lilly announced a $1.3 billion deal with AI pharmaceutical company Superluminal to accelerate AI drug development, particularly for small molecule drugs targeting obesity and other cardiometabolic diseases [3] - The partnership will allow Eli Lilly to utilize Superluminal's AI-driven drug discovery platform, focusing on G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) drug development, which plays a crucial role in various physiological processes [3] - The obesity treatment market is projected to reach $150 billion over the next decade, with major pharmaceutical companies like Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk enhancing their positions through drug development and acquisitions [3] Group 1 - Superluminal is a Boston-based AI pharmaceutical startup that has received investments from companies including NVIDIA [3] - GPCRs are identified as significant targets in cardiometabolic diseases, yet many potential drug targets remain unexplored [4] - Eli Lilly's collaboration with Chinese company Lykai Pharmaceuticals aims to develop next-generation weight loss drugs that help patients lose weight while preserving muscle [3] Group 2 - Novo Nordisk is also targeting GPCR small molecule drugs, having entered a $2.2 billion deal with Septerna to develop oral therapies for obesity and other cardiometabolic diseases [4] - In June, Novo Nordisk partnered with Deep Apple for over $800 million to co-develop and commercialize GPCR small molecule drugs [4] - GPCRs represent the largest and most diverse family of cell membrane receptors, with hundreds of types regulating physiological mechanisms across nearly all organ systems [4] Group 3 - AI pharmaceutical technology has significant potential in drug discovery, capable of screening billions of candidate molecules [4] - GPCRs account for approximately one-third of all FDA-approved drugs, yet about 75% of GPCR therapeutic targets remain undeveloped, indicating substantial future drug discovery potential [4]
美股异动|礼来盘前续涨超1.2% 大幅上调减肥药Mounjaro在英国售价
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-15 08:16
礼来(LLY.US)盘前续涨超1.2%,报691.4美元;该股周四收涨超3.6%。 消息面上,礼来将从9月起大幅上调减肥药Mounjaro在英国售价,旨在解决美国与其他发达国家定价不 一致的问题。此次价格调整涉及不同剂量的全线产品,其中最高剂量药物的月供应价格将从122英镑上 涨至330英镑,涨幅达170%;较低剂量的涨幅则在45%至138%之间。同时,礼来承诺不会上调向英国国 家医疗服务体系(NHS)的供应价格,以确保药物的持续供应。(格隆汇) ...
礼来13亿美元投资了背靠英伟达的AI制药商
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-15 07:13
Group 1 - Eli Lilly announced a $1.3 billion deal with AI pharmaceutical company Superluminal to accelerate AI drug development, particularly for small molecule drugs targeting obesity and other cardiometabolic diseases [1] - Superluminal's AI-driven drug discovery platform will be utilized by Eli Lilly to develop drugs targeting G protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs), which play a significant role in various physiological processes [1] - The obesity treatment market, where Eli Lilly currently holds a dominant position, is projected to reach a value of $150 billion over the next decade [1] Group 2 - Novo Nordisk is also focusing on GPCR small molecule drug development, having signed a deal worth up to $2.2 billion with Septerna to develop oral small molecule therapies targeting specific GPCRs for obesity and other cardiometabolic diseases [2] - In June, Novo Nordisk entered into a collaboration valued at over $800 million with Deep Apple to jointly develop and commercialize GPCR small molecule drugs [2] - GPCRs represent the largest and most diverse family of cell membrane receptors, with hundreds of different GPCRs regulating physiological mechanisms across nearly all organ systems in the human body [2]
礼来上调英国售价高达170%,只因特朗普抱怨“伦敦减肥药比美国便宜的多”
美股IPO· 2025-08-15 04:03
礼来大幅上调减肥药Mounjaro在英国售价,最高剂量的月供应价格将从122英镑上涨至330英镑,涨幅达170%;较低剂量的涨幅则在45%至138%之 间。此举直接回应特朗普的抱怨和政治压力,特朗普曾在演讲中明确表达了对价格差异的不满,称其伦敦朋友购买"减肥针剂"的价格远低于美国市场。 美国制药巨头礼来公司大幅上调其热门减肥药物Mounjaro在英国的售价,最高涨幅达170%,此举直接回应了特朗普政府对"外国搭便车者"依赖美国承 担更高药品成本的抱怨。 最高剂量药物的月供应价格将从122英镑上涨至330英镑,涨幅达170%;较低剂量的涨幅则在45%至138%之间 。 分析指出,这一激进的涨价策略直接回应了特朗普政府的政治压力。特朗普在演讲中明确表达了对价格差异的不满,称其伦敦朋友购买"减肥针剂"的价 格远低于美国市场。 礼来在声明中表示,英国是其首批推出Mounjaro的国家之一,公司当时的优先考虑是尽快为糖尿病患者提供药物供应。 "在推出时,礼来同意了一个显著低于欧洲平均水平的英国标价,以防止NHS供应延迟。" 尽管大幅涨价,礼来强调不会提高向NHS的供应价格,以确保药物供应的连续性。公司表示正与私人医疗提 ...