Core Insights - Eli Lilly is set to release data from a late-stage trial of its weight loss drug retatrutide earlier than expected, later this year [1] - The company anticipates results from a study involving obesity and knee osteoarthritis patients in 2025, which was previously scheduled to conclude in February 2026 [2] - Retatrutide is a significant component of Eli Lilly's drug pipeline, potentially solidifying its leadership in the weight loss and diabetes treatment market against competitors like Novo Nordisk [3] Drug Mechanism and Efficacy - Retatrutide, known as the "triple G" drug, mimics three hunger-regulating hormones: GLP-1, GIP, and glucagon, leading to more effective appetite control and food satisfaction [3] - In a mid-stage trial, retatrutide resulted in an average weight loss of 24.2% (approximately 58 pounds) over 48 weeks, compared to a 2.1% loss in the placebo group [5] - Higher doses of Eli Lilly's tirzepatide have shown an average weight loss of up to 22.5% in late-stage studies, indicating strong competition in the weight loss drug market [4][5]

Group 1 - Eli Lilly reported net income of $4.41 billion, or $4.88 per share, on revenue of $13.53 billion, which was slightly below analyst expectations of $4.52 billion in profit and $13.56 billion in revenue [1] - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $5.32 exceeded expectations of $5.11, indicating strong performance despite overall results being worse than expected [1] - Sales of weight-loss drugs Mounjaro and Zepbound reached $3.53 billion and $1.91 billion, respectively, falling short of expectations of $3.65 billion and $2.04 billion [2] Group 2 - Eli Lilly expects 2025 revenue to be between $58.0 billion and $61.0 billion, with EPS projected from $22.05 to $23.55, and adjusted EPS from $22.50 to $24.00, which aligns with or exceeds market expectations [2] - Following the earnings report, Eli Lilly shares rose more than 2%, reflecting positive market sentiment, while the stock has increased approximately 20% over the past year [3] - In contrast, rival Novo Nordisk's shares have declined about 25% in the past year, highlighting a competitive landscape in the weight-loss drug market [3]

Earnings and Revenue Guidance - Eli Lilly and Company will provide an update on 2024 earnings guidance and share its 2025 revenue guidance range during the 2025 J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference[5] Market Trends Discussion - The company will discuss overall market trends during the conference[5] Conference Webcast and Materials - A live audio webcast of the conference discussion, press release, and associated presentation will be available on Lilly's Investor website[5] - The presentation replay will be available on the website for approximately 30 days[5] Regulatory and Filing Information - The information in Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1, is being furnished and shall not be deemed "filed" for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934[6] - Exhibit 99.1 is a press release of Eli Lilly and Company dated January 14, 2025[7] Executive Signatory - The report is signed by Lucas Montarce, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Eli Lilly and Company[10]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly reported mixed results for the fourth quarter, with strong sales from its weight loss drug Zepbound and diabetes drug Mounjaro, but lower realized prices impacting overall performance [1][2] - The company has lowered its 2024 revenue guidance due to expectations not being met for demand in its key drug segments [2] - Despite the challenges, Eli Lilly's quarterly earnings exceeded Wall Street estimates, although sales fell slightly short [2][6] Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter, Eli Lilly posted revenue of $13.53 billion, representing a 45% increase year-over-year [3] - The net income for the fourth quarter was $4.41 billion, or $4.88 per share, compared to $2.19 billion, or $2.42 per share, from the previous year [4] - Adjusted earnings per share were reported at $5.32, surpassing the expected $4.95, while revenue fell just short of the expected $13.57 billion [6] Future Guidance - Eli Lilly provided fiscal 2025 profit guidance of $22.05 to $23.55 per share, aligning with analyst expectations [3] - The company reiterated its fiscal 2025 sales guidance, projecting between $58 billion and $61 billion [3]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company reported a highly successful year in 2024, with significant revenue growth and strategic investments aimed at long-term growth [3][4][5] Financial Results - In Q4 2024, Eli Lilly's worldwide revenue reached $13.53 billion, a 45% increase from Q4 2023, driven by a 48% increase in volume, partially offset by a 4% decrease in realized prices [5][9] - Reported net income for Q4 2024 was $4.41 billion, a 101% increase compared to $2.19 billion in Q4 2023, with earnings per share (EPS) rising 102% to $4.88 [4][15] - Non-GAAP net income for Q4 2024 was $4.81 billion, a 114% increase from $2.25 billion in Q4 2023, with non-GAAP EPS increasing to $5.32 [18][19] Revenue Breakdown - New Products revenue grew by $3.15 billion to $5.64 billion in Q4 2024, led by Zepbound and Mounjaro [5][6] - Growth Products revenue increased 13% to $5.95 billion, driven by Verzenio and Jardiance, despite lower sales of Trulicity [5][6] - Mounjaro revenue increased 60% to $3.53 billion, with U.S. revenue at $2.63 billion, reflecting strong demand [20][21] - Zepbound, launched in November 2023, generated $1.91 billion in U.S. revenue for Q4 2024, compared to $175.8 million in Q4 2023 [24] Cost and Expenses - Gross margin for Q4 2024 increased 47% to $11.13 billion, with a gross margin percentage of 82.2%, up 1.3 percentage points [11][16] - Research and development expenses rose 18% to $3.02 billion, representing 22.3% of revenue, reflecting continued investment in the company's portfolio [11][12] - Marketing, selling, and administrative expenses increased 26% to $2.42 billion, driven by promotional efforts [12] 2025 Financial Guidance - Eli Lilly anticipates 2025 revenue between $58.0 billion and $61.0 billion, representing approximately 32% growth compared to 2024 [29][31] - Expected EPS for 2025 is in the range of $22.05 to $23.55 on a reported basis and $22.50 to $24.00 on a non-GAAP basis [31][33] - The company plans to continue investing in manufacturing capacity, estimating to produce at least 1.6 times the amount of salable incretin doses in the first half of 2025 compared to the first half of 2024 [29]

Financial Performance - Eli Lilly is set to release its fourth-quarter financial results on February 6, 2025, with expected earnings of $5.08 per share, a significant increase from $2.49 per share in the same quarter last year [1] - The company projects quarterly revenue of $13.43 billion, up from $9.35 billion a year earlier [1] Revenue Growth Expectations - For the full year 2024, Eli Lilly anticipates worldwide revenue to be approximately $45.0 billion, reflecting a 32% growth compared to the previous year, slightly below the consensus estimate of $45.50 billion [2] Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - Eli Lilly shares increased by 2% to close at $842.18 [2] - Analysts have provided various ratings and price targets for Eli Lilly, with Wells Fargo maintaining an Overweight rating and reducing the price target from $1,000 to $970 [4] - B of A Securities reinstated a Buy rating with a price target of $997, while Barclays cut its price target from $1,025 to $975, both maintaining Overweight ratings [4] - Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating with a price target of $1,106, and BMO Capital raised its price target from $1,001 to $1,101 while maintaining an Outperform rating [4]

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings, with Wall Street expecting an EPS of $4.94 and revenues of $13.66 billion, indicating strong market anticipation for the company's performance [1]. Stock Performance - Eli Lilly stock has shown a significant increase of 19.23% over the past year and 8.22% year-to-date [1]. - The current share price is $841.78, which is above the five-day, 20-day, and 50-day exponential moving averages, indicating strong bullish momentum [2]. - The stock has also crossed its 200-day simple moving average of $841.52, breaking resistance levels and signaling long-term bullish momentum [3]. Technical Indicators - The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is at 12.09, supporting a bullish outlook, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 64.87, suggesting the stock is nearing overbought territory but still has potential for further gains [3]. Analyst Ratings - The consensus analyst rating for Eli Lilly stock is a Buy, with a price target of $955.21, indicating a potential upside of 26.97% based on the latest ratings from Truist Securities, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup [5]. - At the time of publication, Eli Lilly stock was up 1.9% at $842.30 [5].

Core Viewpoint - Eli Lilly (LLY) is expected to report earnings soon, with the options market indicating significant anticipated movements in the stock price [1] Options Positioning - The options positioning for LLY has shifted from neutral to fully bullish as of now, with bulls targeting a major upside strike at $900 [3] - The largest open interest for February options shows 1,365 calls at the $800 strike, which is the top gamma strike (TGS) and indicates strong market consensus on this level [4][5] - There is a notable lack of put gamma above $800, suggesting that bulls may attempt to push the stock towards $900 if earnings exceed expectations [5] Option Flows - Recent option flows indicate a bullish sentiment, primarily driven by traders closing long puts and selling puts, which has provided a short-term boost to LLY's stock price [6] - On the call side, traders are taking profits by selling calls ahead of the earnings report, with more put selling than call selling contributing to the upward price movement [7] Price Action - The $800 TGS level has shown strong support, holding pullbacks multiple times since late January, indicating a solid base for potential upward movement [8] - The implied move for LLY's earnings is currently estimated at $45, which may adjust to around $37 after accounting for theta decay, suggesting potential price targets of approximately $860 or $788 post-announcement [9][11] Trading Strategy - The company has established a bullish position and may consider booking deep out-of-the-money puts as insurance, with plans to close positions if the stock rises significantly [12]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly (LLY) is anticipated to report fourth-quarter earnings, with expectations of increased sales and profits following the resolution of shortages for its weight-loss drugs [1][7] Financial Performance - Analysts project Eli Lilly will achieve $13.63 billion in revenue for the fourth quarter, representing a year-over-year increase of over 45% due to the success of its weight-loss drugs [3] - Net income is expected to more than double from the previous year to $4.58 billion, equating to $5.06 per share [3] Analyst Ratings - Among analysts tracking Eli Lilly, 10 out of 11 have rated the stock as a "buy," with one "hold" rating, and the average price target is nearly $986, indicating a 21% premium over recent trading levels [2] Sales Forecast Adjustments - The company had previously lowered its sales expectations for the fourth quarter, with anticipated revenue around $13.5 billion for the quarter and $45 billion for the full year [5][4] - CEO David Ricks indicated that production of salable doses of weight-loss drugs is expected to be 60% higher in the first half of this year compared to the same period in 2024 [5] Market Context - Eli Lilly and its competitor Novo Nordisk (NVO) have experienced demand consistently outpacing supply for their weight-loss drugs, with Lilly's products removed from the FDA's shortage list late last year [6] - Despite a recent decline from record levels, Eli Lilly shares have increased by over 20% in the past year [7]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly (LLY) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $5.15 per share, reflecting a significant increase of 106.8% year-over-year, with revenues projected at $13.48 billion, up 44.1% from the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.5% in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2] - Revisions to earnings estimates are crucial indicators for predicting investor actions regarding the stock, with empirical research showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock performance [3] Key Metrics Forecast - Analysts predict 'Net Sales- Cyramza' to be $258.19 million, a year-over-year increase of 1.8% [5] - 'Net Sales- Humalog' is expected to reach $590.93 million, indicating a substantial increase of 61.2% from the prior year [5] - 'Net Sales- Forteo' is forecasted at $97.33 million, reflecting a decrease of 16.4% year-over-year [6] - 'Net Sales- Erbitux' is estimated at $153.10 million, showing a slight increase of 1.9% from the previous year [6] Geographic Revenue Projections - 'Net Sales- International-Humalog' is expected to be $212.76 million, up 6.9% year-over-year [7] - 'Geographic Revenue- United States' is projected to reach $9.48 billion, indicating a year-over-year increase of 46.9% [8] - 'Net Sales- Diabetes- Mounjaro -Outside U.S.' is forecasted at $1.08 billion, representing a remarkable increase of 978.2% from the prior year [9] Stock Performance - Shares of Eli Lilly have returned +3.7% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which increased by +2.7% [9]