Core Insights - Mattel, Inc. reported fourth-quarter 2024 results with earnings exceeding expectations while revenues fell short of estimates, showing year-over-year growth in both metrics [1][4]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 were 35 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 23 cents by 52.2%, compared to 29 cents in the prior-year quarter [4]. - Net sales reached $1.64 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of $1.66 billion, marking a 2% increase year-over-year [4]. - For the full year 2024, net sales totaled $5.38 billion, down from $5.44 billion in 2023, while net income rose to $541.8 million from $214.4 million in 2023 [14]. Segment Performance - North America segment net sales increased by 1% year-over-year, while the International segment saw a 3% increase [5]. - Gross billings for Vehicles rose by 14% year-over-year, driven primarily by Hot Wheels, while Dolls experienced a decline of 4% [10][8]. Cost Management and Shareholder Value - In 2024, Mattel repurchased $400 million worth of shares and is on track to achieve a $200 million cost-savings target by 2026 [2]. - The company plans a $600 million share repurchase program for 2025, indicating a commitment to long-term shareholder value [2]. Operational Efficiency - Adjusted gross margin improved to 50.8%, up 200 basis points year-over-year, attributed to supply-chain efficiencies and favorable foreign exchange [11]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $248.9 million, an increase from $234 million [11]. Future Outlook - For 2025, Mattel anticipates net sales growth of 2-3% year-over-year and adjusted EPS between $1.66 and $1.72 [15].

KEY TAKEAWAYSMattel shares are rising in premarket trading Wednesday, after the maker of Barbie dolls and Hot Wheels announced plans to mitigate the threat of tariffs by reorienting its supply chain and forecast a surprising growth in 2025 sales.Mattel said that it would take "mitigating actions" to limit the impact of tariffs.UBS analysts said Mattel's projection of 2025 was a big surprise and that Mattel could shift some production out of China. Mattel (MAT) shares are rising more than 12% in premarket tr ...

Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) Q4 2024 Earnings Conference Call February 4, 2025 5:00 PM ET Company Participants Jenn Kettnich - Vice President, Investor Relations Ynon Kreiz - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Anthony DiSilvestro - Chief Financial Officer Conference Call Participants Stephen Laszczyk - Goldman Sachs Alexander Perry - Bank of America Megan Clapp - Morgan Stanley Chris Horvers - JPMorgan Arpine Kocharyan - UBS Eric Handler - Roth Capital Fred Wightman - Wolfe Research Linda Bolton-Weiser - D.A ...

Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Earnings (Unaudited Results) February 4, 2025 Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements / Presentation Information Mattel cautions the viewer that this presentation contains a number of forward-looking statements, which are statements that relate to the future and are, by their nature, uncertain. Forward-looking statements can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts and include statements regarding Mattel's guidan ...

Core Insights - Mattel reported $1.65 billion in revenue for Q4 2024, a year-over-year increase of 1.6% and an EPS of $0.35, up from $0.29 a year ago [1] - The revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.66 billion by -0.53%, while the EPS exceeded the consensus estimate of $0.23 by +52.17% [1] Revenue Performance - Barbie gross billings were $406 million, below the average estimate of $419.40 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of -14.2% [4] - Hot Wheels gross billings reached $481.40 million, surpassing the estimated $446.19 million, marking a year-over-year increase of +15.3% [4] - Fisher-Price gross billings were $206.10 million, below the average estimate of $249.61 million, indicating a year-over-year decline of -16% [4] - Other categories reported gross billings of $788.50 million, exceeding the estimate of $751.94 million [4] Category Performance - Infant, Toddler, and Preschool category gross billings were $276.20 million, slightly below the estimate of $279.96 million, with a year-over-year change of -5.5% [4] - Vehicles category gross billings were $543.80 million, above the estimate of $508.75 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase of +14.5% [4] - Dolls category gross billings were $734.90 million, below the average estimate of $745.05 million, showing a year-over-year decline of -3.7% [4] Stock Performance - Mattel's shares have returned -3% over the past month, compared to a +1% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Mattel reported quarterly earnings of $0.35 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.23 per share, and showing an increase from $0.29 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 52.17% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company posted revenues of $1.65 billion for the quarter ended December 2024, slightly missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.53%, compared to $1.62 billion in the same quarter last year [2] - Over the last four quarters, Mattel has surpassed consensus EPS estimates four times but has only topped consensus revenue estimates once [2] Stock Performance and Outlook - Mattel shares have increased approximately 0.3% since the beginning of the year, underperforming the S&P 500, which gained 1.9% [3] - The future performance of the stock will largely depend on management's commentary during the earnings call and the trends in earnings estimate revisions [3][4] Earnings Estimates - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.08 on revenues of $812.73 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.58 on revenues of $5.5 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Mattel is mixed, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating expected performance in line with the market [6] Industry Context - The Toys - Games - Hobbies industry, to which Mattel belongs, is currently ranked in the top 16% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a favorable outlook compared to lower-ranked industries [8] - Hasbro, a competitor in the same industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.36 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 5.3% [9]

Financial Performance - Fourth quarter 2024 net sales increased by 2% to $1,646 million, or 3% in constant currency, compared to the prior year[3]. - Full year 2024 net sales decreased by 1% to $5,380 million, or 0.5% in constant currency, compared to the prior year[4]. - Fourth quarter 2024 reported operating income was $158 million, an increase of $18 million, while adjusted operating income was $161 million, an increase of $14 million[5]. - Full year 2024 reported net income improved by $327 million to $542 million, with earnings per share increasing to $1.58 from $0.60[5]. - Gross margin for the fourth quarter 2024 increased to 50.7%, up 190 basis points from the prior year[8]. - Worldwide net sales for the year ended December 31, 2024, were $5,379.5 million, a slight decrease of 1% compared to $5,441.2 million in 2023[47]. - Net income for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $541.8 million, a significant increase of 153% from $214.4 million in 2023[40]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $1,057.6 million, reflecting a 12% increase from $947.8 million in 2023[46]. Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased $400 million of shares in 2024 and plans to repurchase an additional $600 million in 2025[5]. - For the year ended December 31, 2024, Mattel reported a net income per common share of $1.58, a significant increase of 163% compared to $0.60 in 2023[44]. Sales by Region - The North America segment saw a 1% increase in net sales in the fourth quarter, while international net sales increased by 3%[6][7]. - North America net sales for Q4 2024 were $975.5 million, a 1% increase from $968.5 million in Q4 2023[49]. - International net sales for Q4 2024 reached $670.9 million, reflecting a 3% increase compared to $652.2 million in Q4 2023[50]. - EMEA region saw a 10% increase in net sales, totaling $402.6 million in Q4 2024, up from $366.5 million in Q4 2023[50]. - Latin America net sales decreased by 16% in Q4 2024, totaling $153.4 million compared to $182.4 million in Q4 2023[50]. - The Asia Pacific region experienced an 11% increase in net sales, totaling $114.9 million in Q4 2024, up from $103.3 million in Q4 2023[50]. Brand Performance - Worldwide gross billings for vehicles increased by 14% to $544 million in the fourth quarter, primarily driven by growth in Hot Wheels[17]. - Barbie brand gross billings decreased by 12% to $1,350.1 million in 2024 from $1,537.8 million in 2023[48]. - Hot Wheels brand gross billings increased by 10% to $1,575.0 million in 2024 compared to $1,432.4 million in 2023[48]. - Barbie brand gross billings decreased by 14% in Q4 2024, totaling $217.4 million compared to $252.8 million in Q4 2023[49]. - Hot Wheels brand gross billings increased by 11% in Q4 2024, reaching $220.3 million, up from $198.5 million in Q4 2023[49]. Operational Metrics - Adjusted Gross Profit and Adjusted Gross Margin are key metrics, with Adjusted Gross Margin providing insight into underlying trends in core profitability[27]. - Adjusted Operating Income and Adjusted Operating Income Margin exclude severance and restructuring expenses, offering a clearer view of operational performance[29]. - Adjusted Earnings Per Share reflects core business performance, adjusted for non-recurring items, providing a more accurate earnings measure[30]. - EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA are critical for assessing business performance, with Adjusted EBITDA excluding non-core expenses[31]. - Free Cash Flow represents net cash from operating activities minus capital expenditures, crucial for evaluating liquidity[32]. - The Leverage Ratio, calculated as Total Debt divided by Adjusted EBITDA, helps gauge financial health and operational efficiency[33]. - Net Debt, which accounts for cash and equivalents, is a vital indicator for monitoring liquidity and balance sheet strength[34]. - Constant Currency metrics are used to analyze performance trends without the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, enhancing comparability[36]. - Gross Billings serve as a key performance indicator, reflecting amounts invoiced to customers and highlighting significant business trends[37]. Inventory and Cash Flow - Cash flows provided by operating activities for the year ended December 31, 2024, were $800.6 million, down from $869.8 million in 2023[42]. - Net cash flows provided by operating activities for the year ended December 31, 2024, were $800.6 million, down 8% from $869.8 million in 2023[46]. - The company reported a decrease in inventories to $501.7 million in 2024 from $571.6 million in 2023[41]. - The accounts receivable net days of sales outstanding (DSO) improved to 55 days in 2024 from 60 days in 2023[42]. - Free cash flow for the year ended December 31, 2024, was $597.9 million, down 16% from $709.5 million in 2023[46]. Debt and Taxation - The company’s long-term debt remained stable at $2,334.4 million as of December 31, 2024, compared to $2,330.0 million in 2023[41]. - The leverage ratio (Total Debt/Adjusted EBITDA) improved to 2.2x in 2024 from 2.5x in 2023[46]. - The tax rate as reported for 2024 was 17%, a decrease of 41 percentage points from 58% in 2023[45].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Mattel (MAT) is well-positioned to continue its earnings-beat streak, particularly due to its strong historical performance in exceeding earnings estimates [1][3]. - Mattel reported earnings of $1.14 per share for the last quarter, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.94 per share, resulting in a surprise of 21.28% [2]. - The company has an average surprise of 20.01% over the past two quarters, indicating a consistent ability to exceed expectations [1][2]. Group 2 - There has been a favorable change in earnings estimates for Mattel, with a positive Earnings ESP of +7.69%, suggesting increased analyst optimism regarding its near-term earnings potential [3][6]. - The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) indicates a high likelihood of another earnings beat, with historical data showing that such combinations lead to positive surprises nearly 70% of the time [4][6]. - The next earnings report for Mattel is anticipated to be released on February 4, 2025 [6].

Earnings Report and Estimates - Mattel Inc (MAT) is scheduled to report Q4 2024 results on Feb 4 after market close [1] - Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q4 earnings is 24 cents per share, down 17.2% YoY [2] - Revenue consensus estimate is $1.68 billion, up 3.4% YoY [2] - Earnings estimates for Q4 have been revised upward by 1 cent per share in the past 7 days [2] Factors Influencing Q4 Performance - Strong demand for Hot Wheels expected to boost Q4 revenue [3] - IP-driven toy business, portfolio innovations, and entertainment expansion are positive factors [4] - Demand creation initiatives and licensing partnerships likely contributed to performance [4] - Higher input costs, unfavorable fixed cost absorption, and supply chain costs may hurt profitability [6] - Increased severance, restructuring expenses, incentive compensation, and pay raises could negatively impact bottom line [6] Brand Performance Estimates - Worldwide gross billings estimates for top brands: - Barbie: $419 million (down 11.4% YoY) [5] - Fisher-Price: $250 million (up 2% YoY) [5] - Hot Wheels: $467 million (up 11.7% YoY) [5] Earnings Prediction Model - Mattel currently has a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [8] - Earnings ESP of -11.02% suggests lower likelihood of earnings beat [7] Other Stocks with Earnings Potential - Life Time Group Holdings (LTH): - Earnings ESP +14.29%, Zacks Rank 1 [9] - Expected 5.3% earnings increase for upcoming quarter [10] - Beat earnings in 3 of last 4 quarters with 46.2% average surprise [10] - Trip.com Group (TCOM): - Earnings ESP +0.97%, Zacks Rank 1 [11] - Expected 7.1% earnings decrease for upcoming quarter [11] - Beat earnings in last 4 quarters with 42.8% average surprise [11] - Rush Street Interactive (RSI): - Earnings ESP +22.22%, Zacks Rank 1 [11] - Expected 800% earnings increase for upcoming quarter [12] - Beat earnings in last 4 quarters with 225% average surprise [12]

Core Viewpoint - Mattel (MAT) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in earnings despite an increase in revenues for the quarter ending December 2024, with the actual results being crucial for the stock's near-term price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is scheduled for February 4, 2025, with expectations that better-than-expected key numbers could lead to a stock price increase, while missing expectations may result in a decline [2]. - The consensus estimate for Mattel's quarterly earnings is projected at $0.24 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 17.2%, while revenues are expected to reach $1.68 billion, marking a 3.4% increase from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 36.77%, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts regarding the company's earnings outlook [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Mattel is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of -11.02%, suggesting a bearish sentiment among analysts [10][11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive or negative reading can predict the likelihood of actual earnings deviating from consensus estimates, with a positive reading being a strong predictor of an earnings beat [6][8]. - Despite the negative Earnings ESP, the stock holds a Zacks Rank of 3, complicating predictions of an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Mattel exceeded the expected earnings of $0.94 per share by delivering $1.14, resulting in a surprise of +21.28% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates three times [13]. Conclusion - While the potential for an earnings beat exists, various factors can influence stock movement beyond just earnings results, making it essential to consider other elements before making investment decisions [14][16].