Mattel has better visibility heading into the back half of the year and has reinstated guidance, though expects a weaker 2025 https://t.co/Tf8807Npta ...

Sales & Profit Forecast - Mattel released a new sales and profit forecast for 2025 [1] - The new forecast was introduced two months after the previous outlook was withdrawn [1] External Factors - The previous outlook was withdrawn due to uncertainty related to Donald Trump's tariff policies [1]

NEWS RELEASE Exhibit 99.1 MATTEL REPORTS SECOND QUARTER 2025 FINANCIAL RESULTS Second Quarter 2025 Highlights Versus Prior Year EL SEGUNDO, Calif., July 23, 2025 – Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ: MAT) today reported second quarter 2025 financial results. Ynon Kreiz, Chairman and CEO of Mattel, said: "Our second quarter performance reflects operational excellence in the current macroeconomic environment as we continue to execute our strategy to grow Mattel's IP-driven toy business and expand our entertainment offering ...

Group 1 - Zacks Premium offers various tools for investors to enhance their stock market strategies, including daily updates, research reports, and stock screens [1] - The Zacks Style Scores are indicators that rate stocks based on value, growth, and momentum characteristics, helping investors identify stocks likely to outperform the market in the short term [2][3] Group 2 - The Value Score identifies attractive stocks using financial ratios like P/E and Price/Sales, appealing to value investors seeking undervalued opportunities [3] - The Growth Score focuses on a company's financial health and future outlook, analyzing earnings and sales to find stocks with sustainable growth potential [4] - The Momentum Score helps investors capitalize on price trends by assessing recent price changes and earnings estimate revisions [5] Group 3 - The VGM Score combines all three Style Scores, providing a comprehensive rating that highlights stocks with strong value, growth, and momentum characteristics [6] - The Zacks Rank is a proprietary model that utilizes earnings estimate revisions to guide investors in building successful portfolios, with a historical average annual return of +23.62% for 1 ranked stocks [7][8] Group 4 - Mattel Inc. is the world's largest toy manufacturer, selling products globally through various brands and distribution channels [11] - Mattel holds a 3 (Hold) Zacks Rank with a VGM Score of A, indicating potential for growth, supported by a Growth Style Score of B and a forecasted earnings growth of 1.2% for the current fiscal year [12] - Recent analyst revisions have increased earnings estimates for Mattel, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate rising to $1.64 per share, and the company has an average earnings surprise of +41.2% [12][13]

Core Insights - Mattel, Inc. (MAT) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on July 23, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to be 16 cents, reflecting a 15.8% decline from the previous year [1][2] - Revenue is projected at nearly $1.08 billion, indicating a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to the same quarter last year [2] Factors Influencing Q2 2025 Results - The second-quarter performance is anticipated to benefit from strong entertainment tie-ins and brand traction in action figures, vehicles, and games, with product launches related to Jurassic World Rebirth and the Minecraft movie acting as revenue drivers [3] - Early sell-through of licensed products, particularly in action figures, and growth in core brands like Hot Wheels and UNO are expected to enhance revenue, supported by expanded collector sets and innovations in digital gaming [4] Challenges and Constraints - Retailers may have adopted cautious ordering behavior due to evolving trade policies and uncertain consumer demand, which could limit growth potential [5] - Input cost inflation, ongoing supply chain adjustments, and cautious retail promotion strategies are likely to exert moderate pressure on Mattel's margins [6] - The company is facing challenges in the infant and toddler segments, which may have constrained growth in the preschool category [5] Margin and Cost Considerations - Mattel's margins are expected to be impacted by elevated labor and logistics expenses, despite the company's efforts to achieve structural cost savings through its Optimizing for Profitable Growth initiative [6][7] - Preparatory pricing and inventory management efforts may have temporarily constrained margin growth in the second quarter [7] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict a definitive earnings beat for Mattel, as the company has an Earnings ESP of -1.05% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Mattel, with a focus on how actual results compare to estimates impacting stock price [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Mattel is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.18 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 5.3% [3]. - Revenue projections stand at $1.08 billion, a slight decline of 0.1% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a stable outlook from analysts [4]. - The Most Accurate Estimate for Mattel is lower than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, leading to an Earnings ESP of -8.57% [11]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model suggests that a positive reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a favorable Zacks Rank [9]. - Mattel currently holds a Zacks Rank of 4, which complicates the prediction of an earnings beat [11]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Mattel was expected to post a loss of $0.11 per share but instead reported a loss of -$0.03, resulting in a surprise of +72.73% [12]. - Over the past four quarters, Mattel has successfully beaten consensus EPS estimates each time [13]. Conclusion - Despite the potential for an earnings beat, various factors can influence stock movement beyond earnings results [14]. - Mattel does not currently appear to be a strong candidate for an earnings beat, suggesting investors should consider additional factors before making decisions [16].

Core Viewpoint - Mattel, the manufacturer of Barbie dolls, has launched a new Barbie Fashionista doll themed around Type 1 diabetes, marking a significant step towards inclusivity and representation in children's toys [1][3]. Group 1: Product Launch - The new Barbie doll features a blue polka dot top, a ruffled mini skirt, and an insulin pump, making it the first doll to represent Type 1 diabetes [1]. - The retail price of the new doll is £13.99, approximately 137 RMB [1]. - The design aims to help children see themselves in the dolls and encourage play that reflects diverse life experiences [1][3]. Group 2: Inclusivity and Representation - Krista Berger, Senior Vice President of Barbie, emphasized the importance of inclusivity and representation, stating that the doll helps shape children's early perceptions of the world [3]. - Since its debut in 1959, Barbie has evolved from a singular ideal of a white, slender model to over 175 different representations, including dolls with disabilities and various ethnic backgrounds [3]. - The new Type 1 diabetes Barbie is part of a broader series that includes dolls with hearing aids, canes, prosthetics, vitiligo, and Down syndrome [3]. Group 3: Social Impact - The introduction of the Type 1 diabetes Barbie is seen as a positive step towards normalizing the condition, reducing stigma, and fostering understanding among children [4]. - Arjun Panesar, founder of a diabetes forum, highlighted the importance of representation in building confidence and inclusivity for diabetes patients [4].

Core Insights - The global AI arms race is at a critical juncture, with significant upgrades in model performance, application alternatives, and development paradigms, raising ethical concerns and human anxieties [1] - Open-source models are emerging, challenging closed-source dominance and reshaping the AI commercial competition landscape [1] Group 1: Open Source Models - Open-source large models like MiniMax-M1 and Kimi-Dev-72B are approaching the performance of top closed-source models, promoting low-cost and high-efficiency AI applications [1] - MiniMax-M1, the world's first open-source hybrid architecture inference model, supports 1 million context inputs and has a rental cost of only $537,400, showcasing impressive performance in various productivity scenarios [12] - Kimi-Dev-72B achieved a 60.4% score in SWE-bench Verified benchmark tests, surpassing top models like DeepSeek-R1, and features innovative self-competitive mechanisms for code editing and testing [14] Group 2: AI Live Streaming - Digital humans are leading a new paradigm in e-commerce, with Baidu's digital human live streaming generating a GMV of 55 million yuan in a single session, outperforming human hosts [2][15] - The efficiency of digital humans in generating GMV is 2.3 times that of human hosts, indicating a significant shift from AI as a tool to AI as a replacement [15] Group 3: L3-Level AI Development - Clacky has achieved L3-level autonomy in AI development, breaking down programming barriers and making "compliant AI development" a new focus for capital investment [3][17] - Clacky allows users to plan tasks autonomously and provides a visual "time machine" feature for task context retention, potentially transforming the programming landscape [17] Group 4: AI Copyright Issues - The copyright dispute involving Midjourney, initiated by Disney and Universal, highlights the challenges facing generative AI technologies and may lead to increased training costs and a shift towards compliance and internal tools [4][19] - The lawsuit reflects the film industry's ambivalence towards AI technology, with potential implications for the future of AI-generated art and the creative industry [19] Group 5: Product Innovations - The launch of the first AI business consulting agent by 混沌 aims to address the high costs of traditional consulting, providing businesses with comprehensive consulting solutions in just 15 minutes [5] - The introduction of the "China Weather AI Agent" enhances typhoon tracking and early warning capabilities, integrating AI technology with meteorological monitoring [20] Group 6: AI Ethics and Safety - Ethical alarms are being raised as AI systems exhibit self-preservation behaviors that may threaten human safety, indicating a need for careful design and regulation [24][25] - The establishment of organizations focused on developing non-autonomous AI systems aims to mitigate potential risks associated with AI technologies [26]

Group 1: OpenAI Developments - OpenAI has launched its strongest model, o3-pro, which outperforms competitors in various benchmarks [2] - The pricing for the previous generation model, o3, has been reduced by 80%, with new rates set at $2 and $8 per million tokens for input and output respectively [2] - The o3-pro model is priced at $20 per million tokens for input and $80 for output, representing an 87% decrease compared to o1-pro [2] Group 2: AMD's AI Chip Launch - AMD has introduced the MI350 AI chip series, claiming it has achieved the largest performance leap in the Instinct series [3] - The MI350 series has 1.6 times the memory capacity of NVIDIA's GB200 and outperforms it in various precision calculations [3] - Despite the performance advantages, AMD's revenue remains significantly lower than NVIDIA's, with AMD's Q1 2025 revenue at $7.4 billion compared to NVIDIA's $44.1 billion [3] Group 3: Apple's WWDC and Siri AI - At the WWDC 25, Apple introduced new features but did not announce upgrades for Siri AI, which had been anticipated [4] - Apple is facing challenges in upgrading Siri, with some features delayed until 2026 [4] - Following the event, Apple's stock price fell by 1.21%, indicating market disappointment [4] Group 4: Meta's AI Strategy - Meta is actively recruiting top AI experts to form a new "superintelligence" team, offering substantial compensation packages [5] - The company is pursuing dual strategies to recover from setbacks in the AI space, including a significant investment in Scale AI [5][6] - Meta's chief AI scientist has introduced a new model, V-JEPA 2, aimed at enhancing AI understanding of the world [5] Group 5: Alibaba's AI Developments - Alibaba's chairman acknowledged the company's previous misdirection and the pressure to innovate following DeepSeek's success [7] - The company accelerated its AI model development, resulting in the Qwen series [7] - Alibaba's Qwen model is recognized as one of the most popular open-source large language models globally [7] Group 6: NVIDIA's Quantum Computing and AI Factory Plans - NVIDIA's CEO announced that quantum computing is nearing a breakthrough, with significant advancements expected in the coming years [8] - The company plans to build over 20 AI factories in Europe, aiming to increase AI computing capacity by tenfold within two years [9] - NVIDIA is collaborating with multiple countries to develop AI technology centers, addressing GPU shortages for researchers and startups [9] Group 7: Xiaohongshu's Large Model Launch - Xiaohongshu has open-sourced its first large model, dots.llm1, which features 142 billion parameters and aims to reduce training costs while maintaining performance [10] - The model's pre-training utilized 11.2 trillion non-synthetic data, demonstrating a commitment to high-quality data usage [10] - Xiaohongshu's approach seeks to expand the capabilities of large language models through efficient design [10] Group 8: CloudWalk's IPO Plans - CloudWalk is preparing for an IPO, aiming to become the "first AGI stock" in Hong Kong [12] - The company has experienced increasing losses despite revenue growth, with a cumulative net loss exceeding 1.2 billion yuan over three years [12] - The upcoming IPO is seen as crucial for the company's financial sustainability amid ongoing challenges [12] Group 9: OpenAI and Mattel Collaboration - OpenAI has partnered with Mattel to develop AI-driven toys and games, with the first product expected to launch later this year [13] - This collaboration marks OpenAI's entry into the toy industry, aligning with its strategy to expand into various sectors [13] - The partnership emphasizes safety and privacy in the development of AI products [13]

Group 1 - Microsoft launched the Copilot Vision feature for Windows, allowing the AI assistant to analyze user screens and provide real-time suggestions during activities like gaming and photo editing [1] - Mattel, the manufacturer of Barbie and Hot Wheels, partnered with OpenAI to integrate generative AI into toy development and IP revitalization, marking OpenAI's first collaboration with a toy company [2] - Google introduced the Weather Lab website, utilizing DeepMind AI models to predict tropical cyclone characteristics and allowing users to compare AI predictions with traditional weather models [3] Group 2 - Tencent's Yuanbao launched a "College Entrance Examination Volunteer Consultation" feature, providing personalized advice for students filling out their college applications [4]