Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the author's investment philosophy, which incorporates various strategies including fundamental, technical, and momentum investing, emphasizing the importance of a diversified approach to capital management [1]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The author believes in the merits of different investment approaches, such as fundamental investing, technical investing, and momentum investing [1]. - The investment process has been refined over the years by leveraging the positive aspects of each approach [1]. Group 2: Purpose of Writing - The article serves as a platform for tracking the performance of the author's investment ideas and connecting with like-minded investors [1].

Core Insights - The impact of tariffs is prompting U.S. toy manufacturers to reshape their supply chains, resulting in significant profit losses amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars [1][2] Group 1: Supply Chain Changes - Major retailers are shifting from a "direct import" model to a "domestic transportation" model, transferring more costs and risks to suppliers [1] - The "direct import" model involves retailers placing large orders months in advance and using their logistics to bring goods to the U.S., while the "domestic transportation" model allows suppliers like Mattel to handle imports and storage [1] - This strategy is seen as a response to the need for more time and flexibility in order management amid ongoing trade uncertainties [1] Group 2: Financial Impact - Mattel reported a 6% decline in sales for the three months ending September 30, with a 10% drop in total invoicing in North America for the third quarter [2] - Analysts estimate that tariffs could lead to a loss of up to $200 million in annual profits for Mattel due to increased import costs and delayed holiday orders from retailers [2] - The company is also facing challenges from discerning U.S. consumers and rising toy prices [2]

Group 1 - Proactive provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The news team covers medium and small-cap markets, as well as blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - Proactive's content includes insights across various sectors such as biotech, pharma, mining, natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging technologies [3] Group 2 - Proactive is committed to adopting technology to enhance workflows and content production [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring all content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Core Insights - Uno remains the top-selling card game, experiencing growth for nine consecutive quarters, as reported by Mattel [1] - American Girl doll sales have increased for four straight quarters, while sales of Barbie and Polly Pocket have declined [2][7] Financial Performance - Mattel's quarterly sales decreased by 6% year-over-year, and net income fell by 25% due to changes in retailer order methods amid tariffs [3] - The company maintains its full-year sales growth forecast of 1% to 3%, despite third-quarter performance pressures [3][4] Market Trends - Retailers are shifting more orders to the fourth quarter, indicating a strategy to prepare for the holiday season [8] - Mattel has raised prices in response to tariffs but will not consider further increases until 2026, with current prices not negatively impacting consumer demand [5][8] Competitive Landscape - Both Mattel and Hasbro are raising prices due to tariffs, but Mattel has indicated it has reached its price increase limit for the year [5] - Fewer retailers are importing products directly, relying more on Mattel for warehousing and logistics, which provides retailers with flexibility [6]

Mattel has just published its quarterly results and reiterated its guidance, which, in my opinion and based on the figures, will be difficult to achieve, given the unfavorable context (tariffs, pressure on margins, shrinking core business). Add to this a “premium” valuation comparedPortfolio manager, fundamental equity research, macro and geopolitical strategy.Over 10 years across global markets, managing multi-asset strategies and equity portfolios at a European asset manager.I combine top-down macro, bott ...

Group 1 - Mattel has published its quarterly results and reiterated its guidance, which may be difficult to achieve due to unfavorable conditions such as tariffs, pressure on margins, and a shrinking core business [1] - The company is facing a "premium" valuation, which adds to the challenges in meeting its guidance [1] Group 2 - The context of the current market includes macroeconomic factors that could impact the company's performance, such as geopolitical strategies and capital flows [1]

Let's stick with earning shares of. It's now taking a hit as retailers delay orders over tariff uncertainty impacts and the current. Joins us now for more.And there we're starting to see it might not be a big stock market issue but a company turning around is saying some retailers are holding back, waiting for clarity. How much of an economic issue might that be. Well, it's a big question, a big missing piece of the jigsaw.When will these tariffs start to flow through to more broadly goods on the shelf. Jon ...

Core Insights - Mattel, Inc. reported lower-than-expected third-quarter 2025 results, with both earnings and revenues missing estimates, leading to a 6.8% decline in share price during after-hours trading [1][5] Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS for Q3 was 89 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.05, and down from $1.14 in the prior-year quarter [5] - Net sales were $1.74 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $1.81 billion by 4.1%, and declined 6% year over year [5] - North America segment net sales decreased by 12% year over year, while the International segment saw a 3% increase [6] Segment Performance - Gross billings in the North America segment fell 11% year over year, attributed to declines in Dolls, Infant, Toddler and Preschool, and vehicles [6] - International segment gross billings increased by 5% year over year, driven by growth in the EMEA and Asia Pacific regions [7] - Barbie gross billings fell by 17% year over year, while Hot Wheels saw an 8% increase [8][9] Operational Insights - Adjusted gross margin was 50.2%, down 290 basis points year over year, due to foreign exchange impacts, inflation, and increased tariff costs [11] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $466.1 million, compared to $584.4 million in the prior-year quarter [11] Balance Sheet Overview - As of September 30, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $691.9 million, down from $723.5 million a year earlier [12] - Total inventories increased to $826.6 million from $737.2 million year over year, while long-term debt decreased to $1.73 billion from $2.33 billion [12] Future Outlook - Mattel expects net sales growth of 1% to 3% for 2025, with adjusted EPS projected between $1.54 and $1.66 [13] - The company anticipates an adjusted gross margin of approximately 50%, down from 50.9% reported in fiscal 2024 [13]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market opened with slight declines across major indices, including S&P 500 (-0.04%), Russell 2000 (-0.11%), Dow (-0.14%), and Nasdaq (-0.18%) [2] Earnings Reports - Intuitive Surgical reported strong earnings, leading to a significant increase in its stock price by 17.76%. Other notable gainers include Vertiv (+7.1%) and Hilton (+3.1%) [3] - Pegasystems saw a rise of 12.5%, while Capital One and Haliburton increased by 4.12% and 2.77%, respectively, benefiting from positive earnings sentiment from the previous day [3] - Conversely, Texas Instruments experienced a sharp decline of 7.9% following weaker after-hours results, alongside other laggards like Manhattan Associates (-7.9%), Netflix (-7.4%), and Newmont (-4.77%) [4] - Mattel's stock fell by 5.5% after missing earnings expectations and reporting a decline in North American sales [4] Upcoming Earnings - Major earnings reports expected later today include Tesla, SAP, and IBM, which will be released after the market closes [8] Economic Indicators - The 10-Year Treasury yield decreased by 1.9 points to 3.944%, while the Continuous Gold Contract fell by 1.76% to $4,036.80 [6]

Core Insights - Mattel missed topline expectations in Q3, making the upcoming holiday season crucial for performance [3][4] - Analysts express concerns about the dynamics heading into the holiday season due to Q3's sales decline [4] - The company maintains its guidance for a 1% to 3% increase in net sales for the year, with an adjusted gross margin target of around 50% [4][6] Company Performance - Q3 net sales decreased nearly 6% year-over-year to $1.7 billion, necessitating a strong holiday season for recovery [6] - Net income fell 25% to $278.4 million, with gross margin contracting by 310 basis points to 50% [6] - The margin contraction was attributed to currency exchange, inflation, tariffs, and higher sales adjustments, though partially offset by cost savings [6] Industry Context - The toy industry overall is experiencing high-single-digit growth, indicating stronger momentum compared to traditional low-single-digit growth [5] - Retailers are adjusting their supply chain strategies due to tariffs, shifting from direct importing to domestic shipping, impacting Mattel's operations [5][6] - The company is adapting to a more just-in-time inventory system with smaller, more frequent orders from retailers [6]