Core Insights - Longleaf Partners Fund reported a return of -0.33% in Q3 2025, underperforming the S&P 500's 8.12% and Russell 1000 Value's 5.33% [1] - The fund focuses on investments in real assets and brands that generate growing free cash flow (FCF) per share, with expectations of a rise in FCF multiple from ~10x to the mid-teens [1] Company Performance - Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) experienced a one-month return of 13.49% and a 52-week gain of 0.95%, with a market capitalization of $6.18 billion as of October 23, 2025 [2] - In Q3 2025, Mattel's net sales decreased by 6% to $1.74 billion, with a 7% decline in constant currency [4] Sales and Market Dynamics - North American sales for Mattel fell by 16% due to retailers adjusting orders amid tariff uncertainties, while international sales increased by 7% [3] - Despite lower-than-expected sales, Mattel showed positive point-of-sale sell-through, indicating healthy underlying demand for toys [3] Future Outlook - The company anticipates modest sales growth in 2025, with acceleration expected in 2026 due to new movie releases and digital games [3] - Management plans to utilize nearly all FCF for share repurchases, targeting $340 million in the second half of 2025, representing over 5% of shares outstanding [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - U.S. equities experienced a rally in Q3 2025, driven by the Federal Reserve's first rate cut of the year, strong corporate earnings, and broadening market participation [1] - The enthusiasm for AI led to significant gains in the technology sector, while small-cap stocks outperformed as capital shifted into undervalued market segments [1] - Ariel Fund achieved a return of +12.39% in Q3 2025, outperforming the Russell 2500 Value Index (+8.17%) but lagging behind the Russell 2000 Value Index (+12.60%) [1] Group 2: Company Focus - Mattel, Inc. - Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ:MAT) reported a one-month return of 13.49% and a 52-week gain of 0.95%, with shares closing at $19.18 and a market capitalization of $6.18 billion on October 23, 2025 [2] - The company faced mixed earnings due to timing shifts in retailer orders linked to tariff uncertainties, although consumer demand remained strong [3] - Despite a slight reduction in 2025 guidance, management anticipates revenue growth and market share gains, supported by resilient point of sale, disciplined cost control, and active buybacks [3] Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Mattel, Inc.'s net sales decreased by 6% as reported and 7% in constant currency, totaling $1.74 billion [4] - The company’s gross margins expanded, and earnings per share (EPS) exceeded consensus expectations, indicating progress on profitability initiatives [3] - The potential for monetizing intellectual property through future media projects supports the view that Mattel's shares are undervalued [3]

Core Insights - Mattel, Inc. has announced a multi-year licensing partnership with Formula 1® to expand its Hot Wheels Formula 1® collection [1] - The updated collection will feature all 10 Formula 1® teams, including Scuderia Ferrari and Aston Martin Aramco Formula One™ Team [1] - The new lineup will showcase the official Formula 1® 2025 team liveries and driver roster, available in the Hot Wheels core [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the author's investment philosophy, which incorporates various strategies including fundamental, technical, and momentum investing, emphasizing the importance of a diversified approach to capital management [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - The author utilizes fundamental investing, which focuses on the intrinsic value of companies, as well as technical investing that analyzes historical price charts [1]. - Momentum investing is also mentioned, highlighting the significance of share price reactions following earnings announcements [1]. - The combination of these strategies aims to enhance the author's investment process and decision-making [1]. Group 2: Purpose of Writing - The article serves as a platform for tracking the performance of the author's investment ideas [1]. - It aims to connect with like-minded investors who share similar interests in investment strategies [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the author's investment philosophy, which incorporates various strategies including fundamental, technical, and momentum investing, emphasizing the importance of a diversified approach to capital management [1]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - The author believes in the merits of different investment approaches, such as fundamental investing, technical investing, and momentum investing [1]. - The investment process has been refined over the years by leveraging the positive aspects of each approach [1]. Group 2: Purpose of Writing - The article serves as a platform for tracking the performance of the author's investment ideas and connecting with like-minded investors [1].

Core Insights - The impact of tariffs is prompting U.S. toy manufacturers to reshape their supply chains, resulting in significant profit losses amounting to hundreds of millions of dollars [1][2] Group 1: Supply Chain Changes - Major retailers are shifting from a "direct import" model to a "domestic transportation" model, transferring more costs and risks to suppliers [1] - The "direct import" model involves retailers placing large orders months in advance and using their logistics to bring goods to the U.S., while the "domestic transportation" model allows suppliers like Mattel to handle imports and storage [1] - This strategy is seen as a response to the need for more time and flexibility in order management amid ongoing trade uncertainties [1] Group 2: Financial Impact - Mattel reported a 6% decline in sales for the three months ending September 30, with a 10% drop in total invoicing in North America for the third quarter [2] - Analysts estimate that tariffs could lead to a loss of up to $200 million in annual profits for Mattel due to increased import costs and delayed holiday orders from retailers [2] - The company is also facing challenges from discerning U.S. consumers and rising toy prices [2]

Group 1 - Proactive provides fast, accessible, informative, and actionable business and finance news content to a global investment audience [2] - The news team covers medium and small-cap markets, as well as blue-chip companies, commodities, and broader investment stories [3] - Proactive's content includes insights across various sectors such as biotech, pharma, mining, natural resources, battery metals, oil and gas, crypto, and emerging technologies [3] Group 2 - Proactive is committed to adopting technology to enhance workflows and content production [4] - The company utilizes automation and software tools, including generative AI, while ensuring all content is edited and authored by humans [5]

Core Insights - Uno remains the top-selling card game, experiencing growth for nine consecutive quarters, as reported by Mattel [1] - American Girl doll sales have increased for four straight quarters, while sales of Barbie and Polly Pocket have declined [2][7] Financial Performance - Mattel's quarterly sales decreased by 6% year-over-year, and net income fell by 25% due to changes in retailer order methods amid tariffs [3] - The company maintains its full-year sales growth forecast of 1% to 3%, despite third-quarter performance pressures [3][4] Market Trends - Retailers are shifting more orders to the fourth quarter, indicating a strategy to prepare for the holiday season [8] - Mattel has raised prices in response to tariffs but will not consider further increases until 2026, with current prices not negatively impacting consumer demand [5][8] Competitive Landscape - Both Mattel and Hasbro are raising prices due to tariffs, but Mattel has indicated it has reached its price increase limit for the year [5] - Fewer retailers are importing products directly, relying more on Mattel for warehousing and logistics, which provides retailers with flexibility [6]

Mattel has just published its quarterly results and reiterated its guidance, which, in my opinion and based on the figures, will be difficult to achieve, given the unfavorable context (tariffs, pressure on margins, shrinking core business). Add to this a “premium” valuation comparedPortfolio manager, fundamental equity research, macro and geopolitical strategy.Over 10 years across global markets, managing multi-asset strategies and equity portfolios at a European asset manager.I combine top-down macro, bott ...

Group 1 - Mattel has published its quarterly results and reiterated its guidance, which may be difficult to achieve due to unfavorable conditions such as tariffs, pressure on margins, and a shrinking core business [1] - The company is facing a "premium" valuation, which adds to the challenges in meeting its guidance [1] Group 2 - The context of the current market includes macroeconomic factors that could impact the company's performance, such as geopolitical strategies and capital flows [1]