好的，各位投资人，晚上好，然后欢迎参加我们的医药每周谈第 236 期，关于 GP MOOC 2026 的海外公司的一个进展。然后我是中银建投医药分析师徐颖翔。然后就是关于整个 Gilead 海外公司的一个情况吧。我们可以看得出来，在整个基于摩根这个期间的话，海外 的药企主要就是在一个专利悬崖的一个压力下面，是加速转型与和与技术兑现。大部分跨 国药企的话，是通过一个大规模的 BD 和并购来平滑自己重磅产品专利的到期的一个销售 冲击。包括默沙东规划 700 亿美元的一个新的产品组合，BMS 的话这几年也完成了 300 亿美元的一个并购交易，阿斯利康的话也是目标在 2030 年能够实现一个 800 亿美元的一 个营收。 因此这几年的话，整个受并购与 BD 还是各家跨国药企最重要的一个战略布局的一个方向， 主要也就是为了应对专利悬崖，同时聚焦高确定性的资产，以及技术平台的一个补强。另 一方面的话，也是整个 AI，从工具也上升到了一个制药的一个核心生产力。成为整个制药 行业的一个核心的驱动，驱动力之一。多家跨国药企，包括礼来、阿斯利康、赛诺菲，都 在 GD Morgan 期间。通过与英伟达以及各种其他的 AI 公司达成 ...

Group 1 - The "Brain-Computer Interface Developers Conference" in Tianjin is a key event to watch for the day [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its policy interest rate at 11:30 AM [1] - RBA Governor Philip Lowe will hold a monetary policy press conference at 12:30 PM [1] Group 2 - The preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January in France will be released at 3:45 PM [1] - Major U.S. companies including Merck, Pfizer, and PayPal are set to report their earnings before the market opens [1] - Richmond Fed President Barkin will discuss the U.S. economy at 9:00 PM [1] Group 3 - The Wall Street Journal's Invest Live event will feature Federal Reserve officials, timing to be determined [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman is scheduled to speak at 10:40 PM [1] - After market close, AMD and other companies like Advanced Micro Devices, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Electronic Arts, and Take-Two Interactive Software will release their earnings reports [1]

Merck & Co. reports Q4 2025 earnings on Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, before market open. Wall Street expects earnings of $2.01 per share on revenue of $16.12 billion, representing 3.1% year-over-year growth. Shares have gained 13% over the past year, outperforming the healthcare sector's broader returns. Here's what investors should watch for. This infographic outlines Wall Street's expectations for MRK's Q4 2025 earnings report on February 3, 2026, alongside analyst price targets and historical beat rates. The N ...

Last week we saw a plethora of important earnings results and increased market volatility. This wee should be another busy one with a lot of important companies due to report. This week we have Amazon (AMZN), Palantir (PLTR), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Alphabet (GOOGL), PayPal (PYPL), Pfizer (PFE), Uber Technologies (UBER), Disney (DIS) and Merck (MRK) all reporting in what shapes as a busy and pivotal week for stocks. Before a company reports earnings, implied volatility is usually high because the m ...

报告导读： Moderna 个体化 mRNA 癌症疫苗 V940 在高危黑色素瘤中的 5 年随访结果 支持疫苗机制能提供持久免疫应答，为后续 III 期与注册推进提供了更充分的临床依据。 事件。 2026 年 1 月 21 日， Moderna 与默沙东联合披露个体化 mRNA 癌症疫苗 V940 （ mRNA-4157 ）联合 Keytruda 用于高危黑色素瘤辅助治疗的 IIb 期 5 年随访结果。该联合治疗方案在较长时间内维持了既往观察到的疗效水平，支持其能够诱导并维持相对持久的免疫应答。 核心读出数据支持疫苗机制能提供持久免疫应答。 KEYNOTE-942 研究结果显示 V940 联合 Keytruda 降低 49% 高危黑色素瘤患者复发或死亡风险，疗效 从 2 年随访时的 44% 提升至 3 年的 49% 并在 5 年随访时仍维持在 49% 。同时未发现新的安全性信号。 V940 的整体推进节奏在同类项目中较为靠前。 mRNA-4157 目前已开展 8 项 II/III 期临床研究，适应症覆盖黑色素瘤、非小细胞肺癌、膀胱癌及肾细胞癌 等多种实体瘤。其中黑色素瘤 III 期临床试验已完成入组，预计将于 ...

医药周报 20260130 从 JPM 大会挖掘 FIC 靶点三期数据验证节点 glmszqdatemark 医药行情回顾&分析&近期判断 周专题：从 JP Morgan 大会看 2026 MNC 密集验证新靶点 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] | 分析师 张金洋 | | --- | | 执业证书： S0590525120012 | | 邮箱： zhangjinyang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 胡偌碧 | | 执业证书： S0590525120011 | | 邮箱： huruobi@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 王彦迪 | | 执业证书： S0590525120015 | | 邮箱： wangyandi@glms.com.cn | 相对走势 -10% 7% 23% 40% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/1 医药 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 风险提示：1）医保、集采政策导致价格不及预期；2）临床进度或上市时间不及预期；3）行业竞争 格局的不确定性；4）地缘政治风险；5）下游投融资及需求复苏不及 ...

Economic Data - China's January Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.1, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [3] - Eurozone's January Manufacturing PMI final value is reported at 49.4, showing continued contraction [3] - The US ISM Manufacturing Index for January is anticipated to rise to 48.3 from 47.9, suggesting a potential stabilization in manufacturing [3] Central Bank Decisions - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise its policy rate to 3.85% from 3.6% [4] - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England are both expected to maintain their current interest rates during their upcoming meetings [9] Major Corporate Earnings - Key earnings reports are expected from major companies including Disney, Pepsi, Merck, and Pfizer, with a focus on their performance in the current economic climate [4][26] - Tech giants like Google and Amazon will report on their cloud business growth, which is critical for assessing AI monetization capabilities [6][26] Geopolitical Events - Ongoing tensions in Iran are highlighted, with the US increasing military presence in the region, which may impact global markets [12] - Japan and Thailand are set to hold significant elections on February 8, which could influence regional political stability [15][17] IPOs and Market Movements - Muyuan Foods is set to launch its IPO in Hong Kong, potentially raising up to 14 billion HKD (approximately 1.8 billion USD) [28] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limits and margin requirements for silver futures, reflecting a tightening in trading conditions [11] Commodity Market Changes - CME has raised the margin requirements for gold from 6% to 8% and for silver from 11% to 15%, indicating a move to reduce leverage in the precious metals market [10] - The Chinese government has implemented a temporary 5% import tax on whiskey starting February 2 [19]

Core Viewpoint - Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK) is recognized as a highly profitable healthcare stock, included in BofA's "US 1 List" of top investment ideas, indicating strong analyst support for the company [1]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Bernstein has maintained a Market Perform rating on Merck with a price target of $95, while expressing concerns about the company's growth prospects, suggesting that significant growth beyond Keytruda may not materialize until 2027 [2]. - The overall analyst sentiment towards Merck is mixed, with slightly over half recommending a Buy and 45% adopting a cautious stance. The consensus 1-year median price target is set at $120, reflecting an upside potential of 10.93% [4]. Strategic Focus and Challenges - Bernstein noted Merck's renewed focus on mergers and acquisitions (M&As), indicating a willingness to invest tens of billions in strategic deals. However, there are challenges in establishing confidence in Merck's short-term growth momentum [3]. Company Overview - Merck & Co., Inc. is a New Jersey-based healthcare company that has been developing and manufacturing human health pharmaceuticals since its founding in 1891, with a commitment to improving lives through scientific advancements [5].

Core Viewpoint - Merck is expected to report its Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings on February 3, with a consensus estimate of $16.19 billion in sales and $2.04 per share in earnings, but earnings estimates for 2026 have declined significantly due to costs from recent M&A activities [1][7][34] Financial Performance - Merck has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the past four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 5.08% and a notable 9.32% surprise in the last quarter [3][34] - The company currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.33% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [4] Factors Influencing Upcoming Results - Q4 growth is anticipated from Keytruda, Animal Health, and new drugs, although this may be offset by weaker performance from Gardasil and M&A-related costs [7][34] - Keytruda sales are projected to reach $8.31 billion, driven by strong uptake in early-stage indications and metastatic indications [9][34] - The HPV vaccine Gardasil is expected to see lower sales, particularly in China and Japan, with estimates at $1.04 billion [13][34] - The Animal Health segment is estimated to generate $1.48 billion, with mixed performance in livestock and companion animal products [17][34] Strategic Initiatives - Merck has been active in acquisitions, including Cidara Therapeutics for $9.2 billion and Verona Pharma for around $10 billion, aimed at bolstering its pipeline ahead of Keytruda's patent expiration in 2028 [28][30] - The company is positioned to launch approximately 20 new vaccines and drugs in the coming years, with several having blockbuster potential [27][34] Market Position and Valuation - Merck's stock has increased by 9.4% over the past year, underperforming the industry average of 16.1% [20][34] - The company's shares trade at a forward P/E ratio of 15.62, lower than the industry average of 18.18, but above its five-year mean of 12.48 [23][34] Investment Considerations - While Keytruda remains a significant revenue driver, there are concerns about Merck's reliance on this drug and its ability to diversify its product lineup [31][34] - Short-term investors may be cautious due to challenges such as Gardasil's performance, potential competition for Keytruda, and rising pressures from generics [34]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index by more than 15% [4][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights the five-year follow-up results of Moderna's personalized mRNA cancer vaccine V940 in high-risk melanoma, supporting the vaccine's mechanism to provide durable immune responses, which strengthens the clinical basis for subsequent Phase III and registration advancements [2][5]. - The KEYNOTE-942 study results show that the combination of V940 and Keytruda reduces the risk of recurrence or death in high-risk melanoma patients by 49%, with efficacy maintaining from 44% at the two-year follow-up to 49% at the three-year and five-year follow-ups, without new safety signals being reported [5]. - V940 is advancing ahead of similar projects, with eight ongoing Phase II/III clinical studies covering various solid tumors, including melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, bladder cancer, and renal cell carcinoma. The Phase III trial for melanoma has completed enrollment and is expected to yield critical data in 2026, with the project also receiving FDA breakthrough therapy designation [5]. Summary by Sections - **Investment Highlights**: The report emphasizes the sustained efficacy of V940 in inducing durable immune responses, differentiating it from previous unsuccessful cancer vaccine attempts, and providing long-term clinical data support for mRNA tumor vaccine technology [5]. - **Clinical Data**: The report details that V940 can encode up to 34 new antigens, activating T-cell responses with immune memory characteristics, complementing PD-1 inhibitors [5].