Core Viewpoint - Moderna is currently facing challenges with declining revenue and stock performance, but has potential for long-term growth if its oncology pipeline proves successful [1][2][9]. Revenue Performance - In 2022, Moderna generated over $19 billion in revenue, which fell to $3.24 billion in 2024, raising questions about its future revenue potential [2]. - The recent approval of a COVID-19 vaccine for at-risk children aged 6 months and older may open new market opportunities, but it is uncertain if this will restore revenue to previous levels [2]. Pipeline Developments - Moderna is focusing on applying its mRNA technology to oncology, with the intismeran autogene vaccine currently in phase 3 trials for melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer [4][5]. - Other potential oncology applications include treatments for bladder cancer and renal cell carcinoma [4]. Valuation Insights - Valuation is challenging due to recent losses; analysts do not expect earnings per share until at least 2027, with a potential EPS of $3.52, leading to a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 9 times [8]. - The current price-to-sales ratio stands at 3.6 times fiscal 2024 sales, with projected revenue for 2025 expected to decline further to between $1.5 billion and $2.5 billion [10]. Market Potential - The oncology market is projected to reach $900 billion by 2034, representing a significant growth opportunity for Moderna if it successfully navigates clinical trials and regulatory approvals [9]. Investment Considerations - Investors need to be patient as Moderna works through its clinical trials and seeks approval for its oncology drugs, which are seen as key to regaining momentum [9][10]. - There is a risk of further stock decline if 2025 performance is weaker than expected, potentially creating better buying opportunities [11].

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates Moderna (MRNA) to report a year-over-year increase in earnings despite lower revenues, with a focus on how actual results will compare to estimates [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Moderna is expected to report a quarterly loss of $2.99 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +10.2% [3]. - Revenue is projected to be $127.17 million, down 47.2% from the same quarter last year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.37% lower in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [4]. - A positive Earnings ESP of +7.22% suggests analysts have recently become more optimistic about Moderna's earnings prospects [12]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that a positive reading is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, especially when combined with a Zacks Rank of 1, 2, or 3 [10]. - Moderna currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a likelihood of beating the consensus EPS estimate [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Moderna was expected to post a loss of $2.92 per share but actually reported a loss of -$2.52, resulting in a surprise of +13.70% [13]. - Over the past four quarters, Moderna has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times [14]. Industry Context - In the Zacks Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry, Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) is expected to post earnings of $0.02 per share, indicating a year-over-year change of -66.7% [18]. - Amicus Therapeutics' revenue is expected to be $147.5 million, up 16.4% from the previous year, with a higher Most Accurate Estimate leading to an Earnings ESP of +191.67% [19].

Company Insights - Moderna's stock (MRNA) has surged approximately 37% in the last month but has dipped around 15% year to date, with a recent trading increase of about 7% [1] - The FDA approved Moderna's supplemental Biologics License Application for Spikevax, allowing its COVID-19 vaccine for children aged six months to 11 years at increased risk for COVID-19 [1] - Moderna's mRNA-1010, a seasonal influenza vaccine candidate, achieved a relative vaccine efficacy (rVE) of 26.6% in a Phase 3 study, with specific strain efficacies of 29.6% for A/H1N1, 22.2% for A/H3N2, and 29.1% for B/Victoria lineages [2][3] - The FDA also expanded the approval of Moderna's respiratory syncytial virus vaccine to adults aged 18-59 at increased risk for the disease [3] Industry Trends - Global healthcare stocks are currently cheaper than they have been in decades, with a slow return of investment into the sector [4] - Despite low prices, investor interest remains weak due to uncertainty around U.S. drug pricing policies, including potential revival of "most-favored-nation" rules and 200% tariffs on pharmaceutical imports [5] - Healthcare funds have seen net inflows of $7.2 billion since early 2024, although this is still 41% lower than the previous year [7] - U.S. healthcare has underperformed the S&P 500 by over 60 percentage points in the past three years, with its valuation at a near-record 27% discount compared to the S&P [8] - Investors are awaiting a clear catalyst for the sector, with ongoing policy uncertainty complicating future earnings predictions [9]

Core Insights - Moderna has announced the cancellation of its plan to build an mRNA drug manufacturing facility in Japan due to changes in the global and Japanese business environment [1] - The construction of Moderna's factory in China is also reported to have no progress at this time [1]

受近期经营环境影响 莫德纳放弃在日本建mRNA药物活性成分工厂 智通财经7月18日电，莫德纳就拟在日本湘南健康创新园建设两座研究和制造设施发布更新。声明称， 经过对近期经营环境的慎重考虑，决定不再继续发展由莫德纳日本公司主导的mRNA药物活性成分工厂 建设计划。由Moderna Enzymatics主导的mRNA药物研究和制造设施大楼则已经完工。莫德纳表示，将 继续把日本业务扩张定位为其战略的重要组成部分。若未来商业环境变得有利，该公司计划重新考虑建 设mRNA药物活性成分工厂。 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the potential for long-term investment opportunities in companies that have experienced significant stock declines but possess strong future prospects [1][3] - It highlights the case of Moderna, which has seen an 80% drop in stock price, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors [3][7] Company Overview - Moderna is recognized for its successful coronavirus vaccine, which generated $18 billion in annual revenue at its peak in 2022 [5] - The company experienced a stock price increase of over 2,000% from early 2020 to August 2021, but has since faced challenges as demand for its vaccine declined [5][6] Current Challenges - The decline in coronavirus vaccine sales has led to a significant drop in earnings, and investors have begun to view Moderna primarily as a "coronavirus vaccine stock," limiting its perceived growth potential [6][7] - Despite having a broad pipeline of candidates across various therapeutic areas, Moderna struggles with redefining its identity in the market [6] Future Growth Potential - Moderna plans to launch up to 10 new products over the next three years, which could diversify its revenue sources and reduce dependence on a single product line [7][8] - The company aims to develop a portfolio that includes vaccines for cancer, cytomegalovirus (CMV), and Norovirus, with a goal of achieving $6 billion in revenue by 2028 [9][10] Market Opportunities - The potential markets for CMV and Norovirus vaccines are estimated to be around $5 billion each, while the oncology market represents a multibillion-dollar opportunity [11] - Even achieving half of its product launch goals could result in a positive growth outlook for Moderna, making it an attractive investment opportunity at its current low stock price [12]

Company Performance - Moderna's stock closed at $33.64, down 1.87%, underperforming the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.33% [1] - Over the previous month, Moderna's shares gained 25.34%, outperforming the Medical sector's loss of 0.32% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.07% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The upcoming earnings release is anticipated, with an expected EPS of -$2.97, reflecting a 10.81% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted at $130.15 million, indicating a 46% decline compared to the same quarter last year [2] Full-Year Estimates - Zacks Consensus Estimates predict full-year earnings of -$9.81 per share and revenue of $2.08 billion, representing year-over-year changes of -10.6% and -35.83%, respectively [3] - Recent changes in analyst estimates are crucial for investors, as positive revisions indicate optimism regarding business and profitability [3] Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), has shown a strong track record, with 1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [5] - Currently, Moderna holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS estimate moving 0.26% lower over the last 30 days [5] Industry Overview - The Medical - Biomedical and Genetics industry ranks in the top 31% of all industries, with a current Zacks Industry Rank of 76 [6] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [6]

Core Insights - Moderna (MRNA) received FDA approval for its COVID-19 vaccine, Spikevax, for children aged six months to 11 years at increased risk for the disease [1][6] - The vaccine was previously available under Emergency Use Authorization [1][6] - Following the announcement, Moderna's shares increased by 4.5% [1] Group 1: FDA Approval and Vaccine Availability - Spikevax is now fully approved for adults aged 65 and above, and individuals aged six months to 64 years at increased risk for severe COVID-19 [2] - The updated Spikevax will be available for eligible patients during the 2025-2026 vaccination season in the U.S. [2][6] Group 2: Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Moderna's shares have decreased by 17.5%, while the industry has seen a growth of 0.2% [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Other COVID-19 vaccines include Pfizer (PFE)/BioNTech's (BNTX) Comirnaty and Novavax's (NVAX) Nuvaxovid, with Comirnaty also using mRNA technology [4] - Novavax's Nuvaxovid is the only non-mRNA vaccine in the U.S. and has received full approval for older adults and high-risk individuals aged 12-64 [7] Group 4: Company Ranking - Moderna currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. pharmaceutical sector experienced a decline, failing to maintain its upward momentum from earlier in the week [1] - Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) saw a drop of over 3%, while Moderna (MRNA.US) fell by more than 2.4%, Eli Lilly (LLY.US) decreased by over 1%, and Pfizer (PFE.US) declined by nearly 1% [1] - Reports indicate that the FDA may expedite drug reviews to lower drug prices in the U.S. [1]

Group 1: Moderna's Vaccine Approval - The U.S. FDA has approved Moderna's supplemental Biologics License Application for Spikevax, allowing its COVID-19 vaccine for children aged six months to 11 years at increased risk for COVID-19 disease [1] - Moderna's CEO emphasized the importance of vaccination for protecting children against severe disease and hospitalization, expressing appreciation for the FDA's review and approval [2] - The updated Spikevax vaccine is expected to be available for eligible populations in the U.S. for the 2025-2026 respiratory virus season [2] Group 2: Legal Challenges and Patent Issues - Pfizer and BioNTech have requested a reversal of a court ruling that found their COVID-19 vaccine infringed on a Moderna patent, while a previous ruling declared one of Moderna's patents invalid [3] - The companies argue that Moderna's mRNA technology is a continuation of earlier research, questioning the validity of the patent [4] - Moderna maintains that the court's decision to uphold the patent is correct and should remain [4] Group 3: FDA's Vaccine Approval Decisions - The FDA's top vaccine official overruled agency scientists to limit the approval of two COVID-19 vaccines, despite recommendations for broader use [6] - The official restricted the vaccines to higher-risk individuals, citing declining hospitalization and death rates from COVID-19 as a factor in the decision [7] - Following the news, Moderna's stock price increased by 3.60% to $33.97 [7]