36,382,733+$15.35+7.81%$211.95[FactSet Research Systems][FDS]• Vol: 349,169+$11.69+6.14%$201.95[IBM][IBM]• Vol: 5,557,844+$12.45+5.58%$235.80## Top Losing Stocks[Expeditors International of Washington][EXPD]• Vol: 713,376-$9.206.15%$140.44[Oneok][OKE]†¢ Vol: 2,540,845-$4.705.38%$82.63[CVS Health][CVS]• Vol: 2,949,597-$3.364.36%$73.64[Fair Isaac] [FICO]• Vol: 132,015-$45.403.54%$1,236.25[Diamondback Energy][FANG]• Vol: 1,195,316-$5.733.30%$168.09 Bleeker | Feb 15, 2026 at 7:50 AM EST Nvidia closed the week ...

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia has experienced significant stock price appreciation, rising over 750% in the past three years due to its pivotal role in the AI sector [1] - Despite strong business momentum, the stock may not deliver extraordinary returns in the next five years as the market has already priced in high demand [2] Business Performance - Nvidia's revenue for the fiscal third quarter of 2026 reached $57.0 billion, a 62% year-over-year increase, accelerating from a 56% increase in the previous quarter [4] - The data center business, crucial for growth, saw a 66% year-over-year revenue increase to $51.2 billion [5] Industry Trends - Major tech companies are planning substantial capital expenditures, with Amazon projecting $200 billion, Meta Platforms estimating $115 billion to $135 billion, and Alphabet forecasting $175 billion to $185 billion for 2026, indicating ongoing investment in AI [6][7] - These budgets signal that hyperscalers are aggressively expanding capacity, with GPUs remaining essential for this growth [7] Long-term Outlook - The AI hardware market is expected to stabilize after initial capacity expansion, raising questions about Nvidia's future pricing power as customers seek to diversify suppliers [8] - Amazon's internal chip programs, such as Trainium and Graviton, are gaining traction, with a combined annual revenue run rate exceeding $10 billion and growing at a triple-digit rate [9] Stock Valuation - Current stock price is approximately $188, with potential future prices estimated at $303 with 10% annual compounding and $331 with 12% [12] - Nvidia's shares are trading at about 47 times earnings, indicating a premium valuation [12]

Group 1 - The core concern raised by Ben Thompson is the conservative capacity expansion of TSMC, which he believes is a limiting factor for global AI expansion [2][3] - Thompson predicts a significant chip shortage around 2029 due to insufficient capital expenditure growth to meet the exponential demand for computing power driven by AI [2][3] - He emphasizes that TSMC's cautious approach to capacity expansion is rational, as they prefer to avoid the risks associated with overcapacity and its impact on profit margins [2][3] Group 2 - Thompson advocates for tech giants to support companies like Intel or Samsung through prepayments or other means to mitigate future capacity bottlenecks [3] - He argues that the advertising model is the most effective monetization strategy for AI applications, countering the prevalent skepticism in Silicon Valley regarding advertising [4][5] - Thompson cites Facebook's advertising system as a successful automated agent, highlighting its effectiveness in delivering results for businesses [4][5] Group 3 - Thompson provides insights on the performance of major tech companies, labeling Meta as the strongest in execution despite concerns over its capital expenditures [5] - He describes Google as chaotic yet resilient, comparing it to a slime mold that adapts effectively despite its apparent disorder [5] - Concerns are raised about Amazon's chip strategy in the AI era, suggesting that its low-cost approach may not be sustainable in a rapidly evolving market [5] Group 4 - Thompson discusses the potential end of the SaaS business model if AI leads to a reduction in workforce, indicating a growth ceiling for per-seat pricing [6] - He posits that in a world of infinite content, live experiences will gain value, as they cannot be personalized by AI [7] - The future of AI-generated content will redefine value based on scarcity, emphasizing the importance of shared experiences [7]

Core Insights - Amazon reported a record revenue of $213.4 billion for Q4 2025, marking a 14% year-over-year increase, and net profit reached $21.2 billion, up 6% [1] - For the full year 2025, Amazon's revenue hit $716.9 billion, a 12% increase, with net profit soaring to $77.7 billion, a 31% rise from 2024 [1] - Amazon's cloud business, AWS, contributed over 60% of the company's operating profit, highlighting its significance as a cash cow [5] Revenue Breakdown - In Q4 2025, Amazon's online store revenue was $82.99 billion, up 10%, while physical stores generated $5.86 billion, a 5% increase [4] - Third-party seller services brought in $42.82 billion, growing 11%, and subscription services earned $13.12 billion, up 14% [4] - Advertising revenue reached $21.32 billion, marking a 23% increase [4] - North America accounted for $127.08 billion in sales, a 10% increase, with operating profit rising 24% to $9.3 billion [4] - International e-commerce revenue was $50.7 billion, up 17%, although operating profit declined 23% to $1 billion due to increased competition and costs [4] Cloud Business Performance - AWS achieved $35.6 billion in revenue for Q4 2025, a 24% increase, marking the highest growth rate in 13 quarters [5] - For the full year, AWS revenue reached $128.7 billion, a 20% increase, representing 18% of total revenue [5] - AWS's operating profit was $12.5 billion, with a profit margin of 35% [5] Capital Expenditure and Future Investments - Amazon plans to invest approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, a 52% increase from 2025's $131 billion [14] - The significant capital expenditure includes investments in AI, robotics, and chip development, indicating a strategic focus on enhancing operational efficiency and customer experience [17][21] - Amazon's self-developed AI training chips, Trainium and Graviton, have surpassed $10 billion in annualized revenue, with Trainium 3 already in high demand [17][18] Competitive Landscape - Amazon maintains a leading position in the public cloud market with a 28% market share, followed by Microsoft at 21% and Google at 14% [10] - However, AWS's revenue growth rate is lagging behind competitors like Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud, which are growing at 39% and 48%, respectively [10]

Core Insights - Nebius (NBIS) has signed an agreement to acquire Tavily, enhancing its AI cloud platform with real-time search capabilities [1][9] - The acquisition positions Nebius to leverage the growing agentic AI market, projected to expand at a CAGR of 43.8% from 2025 to 2034 [2] - Tavily's technology will improve Nebius Token Factory, enabling developers to create enterprise-grade agentic systems with real-time web access [3][4] Company Strategy - By integrating Tavily's search infrastructure, Nebius aims to streamline the development process for AI firms, reducing reliance on multiple vendors [4] - The acquisition is expected to close soon, with Tavily continuing to operate under its brand and serving existing clients, including Fortune 500 companies [5] Market Context - Competitor CoreWeave (CRWV) is also pursuing inorganic growth, having made several acquisitions to enhance its AI infrastructure [6] - Amazon (AMZN) is focusing on internal development and partnerships rather than acquisitions, reporting significant revenue growth in its custom chips and AI services [7] Financial Performance - Nebius shares have decreased by 15.4% over the past month, compared to a 13% decline in the Internet Software and Services industry [8] - The price/book ratio for NBIS is currently at 4.64X, higher than the industry average of 3.46X [10] - Earnings estimates for NBIS have been revised upwards over the past 60 days, indicating positive sentiment [11]

Core Insights - The competition for AI leadership among major cloud providers is intensifying, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon leading in different segments of the AI stack [1] Microsoft (Azure) - In Q2 FY2026, Microsoft's Cloud revenue rose 26% to US$51.5 billion, driven by a 39% increase in Azure and other cloud revenue [2] - Microsoft's capital expenditure (CAPEX) surged 66% YoY to US$37.5 billion, raising concerns about the sustainability of growth [2] - The backlog for Azure reached US$625 billion, up 110% YoY, indicating strong demand for Azure services [3] - OpenAI contributed 45% to Microsoft's backlog, while the non-OpenAI segment grew 28% YoY, reflecting broad-based demand [3] - Microsoft is developing custom AI accelerators and integrating AI into its product suites, similar to Alphabet's strategy [3] - The company has extended the useful life of older GPUs through advanced software, akin to NVIDIA's CUDA approach [4] Alphabet (Google Cloud Platform - GCP) - In Q4 2025, Alphabet's Cloud revenue increased 48% YoY to US$17.7 billion, with GCP growing at an even higher rate [5] - Alphabet's CAPEX in Q4 2025 rose 95% YoY to US$27.9 billion, with total CAPEX for 2025 reaching US$91.4 billion [5] - GCP's backlog grew 55% sequentially to US$240 billion in Q4 2025, with projected CAPEX for 2026 expected to be US$175 billion to US$185 billion [6] - Revenue from GCP's AI products grew nearly 400% YoY in Q4 2025, with costs to run its AI models reduced by 78% [7] - 14 of Alphabet's AI-powered products have annual revenues exceeding US$1 billion, indicating significant adoption [8] Amazon (AWS) - AWS revenue surged 24% YoY to US$35.6 billion in Q4 2025, marking the fastest growth in 13 quarters [9] - Amazon's CAPEX reached US$39.5 billion in Q4 2025, a 42% YoY increase, with total CAPEX for 2025 at US$131.8 billion [9] - Projected CAPEX for 2026 is expected to be around US$200 billion, driven by demand for core and AI workloads [10] - Amazon's backlog increased 40% YoY to US$244 billion, reflecting strong demand [10] - AWS's Trainium and Graviton chips are generating a US$10 billion annual revenue run rate, growing at triple-digit percentages YoY [13] - Amazon Bedrock, a service for building AI applications, is utilized by over 100,000 companies and has a multi-billion-dollar annualized revenue run rate [13] - Amazon Connect reached a US$1 billion annualized revenue run rate in Q4 2025, growing at 30% YoY [13]

Over the past few months, mega-cap tech stocks have been caught in an unusual tech tug-of-war: investors are thrilled about AI growth but jittery about how much it will cost to build the infrastructure needed to deliver that AI future. Big names like Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) have seen share prices dip after eye-popping capital expenditure plans flooded into the market alongside earnings reports. In this climate, Amazon’s (AMZN) latest quarterly report triggered its own selloff, not be ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：君实财经） 亚马逊2025年Q4业绩点评整理 《广发海外电子通信》 AI持续推动云端业务 AWS业务收入356亿美元，同比增加24%，高于市场预期的21%，加速增长由核心服务和AI服务共同驱 动，因为客户持续对其基础设施进行现代化，并将工作负载迁移至云端，年化营收规模提升至1420亿美 元。 持续扩展数据中心网络 正大规模扩展数据中心网络以最快的速度扩充产能，过去12个月新增超3.9GW，预计到2027年将再翻 倍，仅第四季度，公司就新增超过1.2GW。现已获得超过140万颗Trainium2芯片订单，业务规模达数十 亿美元。市场对Trainium3的需求非常强劲，其性价比较Trainium2高出40%，预计到2026年中几乎全部 芯片供应都将被预订。若将Trainium和Graviton合并计算，年化营收规模远超100亿美元。 股价盘后下跌11%，主因资本支出远超市场预期，引发近期投资人对资本回报率的担忧，且其业绩及指 引仅符合预期。然而，公司持续正向看待资本投入，认为AI产能建置的速度代表其货币化速度，是强 劲资本回报率的难得机遇。 亚马逊发布Q4财报，26年资本开支指引2000亿 ...

2026年2月9日 CMB国际全球市场 | 股权研究 | 公司更新 亚马逊（AMZN US） 成长故事不变，AWS收入增长加速，超出预期。 亚马逊宣布（2月6日北京时间）2025年第四季度业绩：收入为2134亿美元，同比增长1 4%，按固定汇率计算同比增长12%（2024年第四季度：按固定汇率计算增长11%）， 比我们的预测/摩根大通一致预期高出1%。在此期间，总运营利润为250亿美元，同比 增长18%，比我们的预测/摩根大通一致预期高出2%-1%。剔除总额为24亿美元的三项 一次性特殊费用，运营利润将比预期高出10%。2025年第四季度AWS收入同比增长加 速至23.6%（2025年第三季度：20.2%；2024年第四季度：18.9%），比预期高出2个 百分点，受供应限制放宽（但仍存在）的推动。对于2025年，总收入同比增长12%至7 169亿美元，运营利润同比增长17%至800亿美元。管理层预计2026年第一季度预期收 入为1735-1785亿美元（预期：1755亿美元），意味着同比增长11%-15%。同时，管 理层预计运营利润为165-215亿美元（预期：222亿美元），2026年预期资本支出为20 0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Amazon with a target price of $260 [6]. Core Insights - Amazon's Q4 revenue increased by 13.6% year-over-year to $213.4 billion, exceeding consensus expectations by 1% [1]. - The company reported a Q4 operating profit of $27.4 billion, which was 4% above expectations, and a net profit increase of 6% to $21.2 billion [1]. - Capital expenditures for Q4 reached $38.5 billion, surpassing expectations by 12% [1]. - Concerns arose regarding cash flow and high valuation due to a significant increase in 2026 Capex guidance to $200 billion, compared to the expected $147.5 billion [2]. - AWS revenue growth was 24% year-over-year, although it lagged behind competitors like Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure [3]. - The company is focusing on high-end organic grocery products through its Whole Foods brand, with plans to open over 100 new stores in the coming years [4]. - Adjustments to revenue and net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were made, reflecting a slowdown in AWS growth and increased capital expenditures [5]. Financial Performance - Q4 operating margin was reported at 11.3%, with a net margin of 10.7% [18]. - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between $137.5 billion and $178.5 billion, aligning with expectations [2]. - The annualized revenue for AWS is projected to exceed $100 billion, with significant contributions from self-developed chips like Trainium and Graviton [3]. - The report anticipates a decrease in net profit margins due to increased capital expenditures and depreciation [5]. Business Segments - North American e-commerce revenue grew by 10%, while international e-commerce revenue increased by 17% [4]. - The grocery business is transitioning to focus on high-end organic products, with a total annual sales exceeding $150 billion [4]. - The AI shopping assistant Rufus has expanded its user base to over 300 million, significantly increasing transaction probabilities for users [15]. Future Outlook - The report projects Amazon's revenue for 2026 to be $806 billion, with net profit expected to reach $84 billion [8]. - The company is investing heavily in its Leo project, which aims to provide low-orbit satellite internet services, enhancing its cloud offerings [15]. - AWS is expected to enter a new pricing cycle, with recent price increases for EC2 instances indicating strong demand for cloud services [10].