【提醒：日内请重点关注（以下均为北京时间）】① 时间待定 芬兰总理奥尔波将访华（1月25-28 日）； ② 欧股盘前 阿斯麦控股发布业绩报告； ⑦ 23:30 美国能源信息署（EIA）发布政府版原油库存周报； ③ 18:00 欧洲央行执委Elderson在关于任命的听证会发表开场白演讲，欧洲央行12月中旬提名其继续担 任监管委员会副主席； ⑧ 次日02:00 欧洲央行执行理事会成员Isabel Schnabel讲话； ④ 美股盘前 苹果供应商康宁公司（GLW）、星巴克发布业绩报告； ⑤ 21:30 美国12月商品贸易帐； ⑥ 22:45 加拿大央行公布利率决议； ⑨ 次日03:00 美联储发布FOMC利率决议声明（没有"季度性"经济预期概要/SEP）； ⑩ 次日03:30 美联储主席鲍威尔举行例行新闻发布会； ⑪ 美股盘后 微软、Meta、特斯拉发布业绩报告，拉姆研究、IBM、ServiceNOW也将发布业绩报告； ⑫ 次日05:30 巴西央行公布利率决议； ⑬ 次日05:45 新西兰12月进出口与贸易帐； ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the software industry, particularly the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on software companies and their business models [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Reliance on Existing Software Vendors** Companies prefer to rely on existing software vendors for AI feature upgrades and are willing to pay for these enhancements. There is no plan to replace current vendors, and spending continues to grow during contract renewals [1][2]. 2. **Focus on Time to Market** Companies aim to concentrate internal development resources on revenue growth and core business rather than redeveloping third-party applications. This indicates a strategic shift towards leveraging existing solutions [1][2]. 3. **Outsourcing Development and Maintenance** Businesses are dismissing the idea of developing software in-house and prefer to outsource responsibilities and risks to third-party vendors. Developer headcount remains unchanged despite the growing reliance on external solutions [2]. 4. **AI Monetization** The call highlighted that many companies are successfully monetizing additional AI features through new contracts and product SKUs. This trend is seen as a legitimate business rationale for increased spending [2][3][4][5]. 5. **SaaS Pricing Dynamics** The SaaS sector is evolving, with AI transforming simple functionalities into high-value productivity engines, justifying significant price increases for software products. For instance, a user expressed willingness to pay 50% more for a service due to the exponential utility of AI-generated content [5][19]. 6. **Challenges in Data Management** The complexity of managing vast amounts of data across various systems poses significant challenges. Companies face issues related to data governance, privacy, and integration, making it impractical to switch from established products [6][7][8][9]. 7. **Emergence of Claude Code** The transition towards tools like Claude Code is noted, where AI is taking on more coding responsibilities, potentially accelerating development processes. However, there are concerns about the reliability and effectiveness of such tools in large enterprise environments [10][11][12][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment** The overall sentiment in the software industry is cautious, with a belief that market emotions may have been overstretched. The hype around AI tools like Claude Code is nearing its peak, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [14][15]. - **Growth Expectations** A recent Morgan Stanley CIO survey indicates an increase in growth expectations for the software industry from 2.4% in 2025 to 3.8% in 2026, surpassing growth rates in hardware and communication services [18]. - **Skepticism on Price Compression** There is skepticism regarding significant price compression in the software industry, as low-cost software already exists, and SaaS pricing is generally low. R&D spending as a percentage of revenue for CRM companies is around 25%, indicating a balanced investment approach [19]. Investment Strategy - The software industry is viewed as a potential buy in the short to medium term, with a focus on identifying individual stocks that present investment opportunities. The market is expected to experience volatility, leading to increased differentiation in stock performance [20].

Core Viewpoint - ServiceNow, Inc. is anticipated to have a significant earnings report, which could have major consequences for the stock market, particularly in comparison to its competitor Salesforce [1]. Company Overview - ServiceNow provides a cloud platform that enhances digital workflows through various technologies, including AI, automation, low-code tools, analytics, and a range of products focused on IT, security, customer service, and employee experience [2]. Investment Perspective - While ServiceNow is recognized for its potential as an investment, there are other AI stocks that are perceived to offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk [3].

Core Viewpoint - BNP Paribas Exane has cut the price target for ServiceNow to $120 from $186, indicating a moderate downside, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating despite describing the company as "resilient" [1] Company Overview - ServiceNow is a leading provider of cloud-based digital workflow solutions, operating the ServiceNow AI Platform that integrates with various cloud models and data sources [2] - The company serves over 85% of the Fortune 500 and nearly 60% of the Global 2000, with a market capitalization of $138.1 billion [2] Financial Performance - ServiceNow reported third-quarter total revenue of $3.41 billion, a 21.8% year-over-year increase, surpassing Wall Street expectations by $50 million [6] - Subscription revenue accounted for $3.3 billion, reflecting a 21.5% increase from the previous year, driven by new and existing customer purchases [6] - The company's current remaining performance obligations (cRPO) reached $11.35 billion, representing a 21% year-over-year growth [7] - ServiceNow raised its full-year guidance for subscription revenue to $12.84 billion to $12.85 billion, up from a previous forecast of $12.78 billion to $12.8 billion [8] Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - Despite concerns about AI disruption, many analysts maintain a positive outlook on ServiceNow, with 33 out of 42 analysts recommending a "Strong Buy" [11] - The average price target for ServiceNow stock is $212.88, suggesting a 59.9% upside potential from its recent closing price [11] Upcoming Expectations - Analysts expect ServiceNow's Q4 results to show a 23.08% year-over-year increase in GAAP EPS to $0.48 and a 19.35% year-over-year revenue increase to $3.53 billion [9] - The recent decline in ServiceNow shares has made its valuation more attractive, with a forward non-GAAP P/E of 38.25x, significantly lower than its five-year average of 67.56x [10]

Core Viewpoint - ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE:NOW) is recognized as one of the best long-term tech stocks to buy, despite recent price target reductions by analysts [1][3]. Group 1: Price Target Adjustments - BMO Capital has reduced its price target for ServiceNow from $230 to $175 while maintaining an "Outperform" rating, citing expectations for better-than-anticipated Q4 constant-currency growth in subscription revenues and current remaining performance obligations [1][2]. - Jefferies also lowered its price target for ServiceNow to $175 from $230, while keeping a "Buy" rating, indicating expectations for marginally better performance in constant currency cRPO and subscription revenue [3]. Group 2: Growth Expectations - BMO Capital anticipates that ServiceNow will guide in line with the current FY 2026 consensus organic subscription revenue growth rates on a constant-currency basis, which may help alleviate concerns regarding the sustainability of growth [2]. - The upcoming earnings report is expected to provide clarity on the durability of ServiceNow's growth trajectory [2]. Group 3: Market Context - The reduction in price targets is attributed to broader multiple compression in the software sector, indicating a challenging market environment for tech stocks [2].

Core Insights - ServiceNow (NOW) is set to announce its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 28, with expected revenues of $3.52 billion, reflecting a 19.2% year-over-year growth [1] - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is 87 cents, indicating a 19.2% increase from the previous year [1] Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 subscription revenues is $3.43 billion, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 19.5% on a GAAP basis [6] - Subscription revenues are projected to be between $3.42 billion and $3.43 billion, with constant currency growth estimated at 17.5% to 18% [6] Performance Trends - ServiceNow has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 9.79% [4] - The company’s stock has declined by 41.7% over the past year, which is better than the Zacks Computer & Technology sector's return of 28.4% and the Computers – IT Services industry's decline of 22.6% [12] Strategic Developments - ServiceNow's AI products are expected to exceed $0.5 billion in Annual Contract Value (ACV) in 2025, with a target of reaching $1 billion in 2026 [18] - The acquisition of Veza enhances ServiceNow's security portfolio by focusing on identity security, which is crucial for managing access to sensitive data [18] - The $7.75 billion acquisition of Armis will strengthen ServiceNow's offerings in cyber exposure management and is expected to drive greater AI adoption [19] Partnerships and Integrations - ServiceNow has expanded its partnerships with major companies like NVIDIA and Microsoft, enhancing its AI capabilities and integration with enterprise workflows [10] - The collaboration with NVIDIA has led to the development of Apriel 2.0, which aims to improve AI reasoning and capabilities for enterprises [8] Valuation Insights - ServiceNow's current valuation is considered stretched, with a forward price/sales ratio of 8.73X compared to the sector's 7.32X [15] - The company holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting that investors may want to wait for a more favorable entry point [20]

ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE:NOW) is one of the Buzzing AI Stocks Analysts are Watching. On January 20, Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Peter Weed reiterated an Outperform rating on the stock with a $219.00 price target. The firm is optimistic on NOW, citing upside catalysts in GenAI and H2 execution. In an investor note, the firm highlighted how ServiceNow is one of the safest application stocks based on short interest metrics. This is despite having experienced sharper declines than most large-cap application ...

Core Viewpoint - ServiceNow, Inc. (NYSE:NOW) has faced significant share price declines, down 43.6% over the past year and 13.9% year-to-date, amidst challenges in the broader software sector [2] Group 1: Stock Performance and Analyst Ratings - Baird reduced its share price target for ServiceNow to $190 from $250 while maintaining an Outperform rating [2] - RBC Capital also kept an Outperform rating with a $195 share price target, highlighting the company's partnership with OpenAI as a positive indicator of its market presence [2] - Citi set a more optimistic share price target of $250.60, reflecting confidence in ServiceNow's sales pipeline following the OpenAI partnership announcement [2] Group 2: Partnership with OpenAI - The partnership with OpenAI will integrate OpenAI's frontier model capabilities into ServiceNow's platform, enhancing its offerings to customers [2] - There is speculation regarding whether the partnership primarily benefits OpenAI by establishing its presence in the business-to-business market [3] Group 3: Investment Sentiment - While there is potential for ServiceNow as an investment, some analysts believe that other AI stocks may offer better returns with lower risk [3]

分组1 - The stock market is experiencing mixed results, with the Dow down 285 points, S&P slightly up by 0.03%, and NASDAQ up by 28 points, indicating a focus on fundamentals moving forward [2] - Newor, a leading steel company, pre-announced earnings that fell short of expectations, yet the stock rose by approximately 12% following a Fed rate cut and tariffs on foreign steel, suggesting a buying opportunity if the stock dips [3][4] - Boeing is expected to report earnings after a significant stock increase, with a positive outlook for a multi-year turnaround, indicating potential for continued investment [4] 分组2 - General Motors is set to report earnings, with a historical pattern of underperformance in the initial trading hours, presenting a potential buying opportunity [5] - CSX and Union Pacific are highlighted as key players in the transportation sector, with expectations for positive performance [6] - Seagate, a storage and memory chip manufacturer, has seen a 25% increase in stock value this year due to rising demand from data centers, with expectations for a strong earnings report [8] 分组3 - Starbucks is reporting earnings and will follow up with an investor day, raising questions about the sustainability of its recent stock performance, which is considered overbought [10][11] - Generova, spun out from GE, has seen its stock price rise significantly, but high expectations may lead to a better entry point for investors [12] - Corning is noted for its strong prospects in data centers, with a recommendation to wait for a price drop to buy [13] 分组4 - Microsoft and Meta have faced stock price pressures, with Microsoft affected by concerns over generative AI, while Meta's stock has fluctuated following comments from its CEO about spending [14][15] - Tesla is positioned as a company focused on autonomous driving, with expectations that its upcoming earnings report could significantly boost its stock price [16] - Service Now is anticipated to be a critical report of the week, with the CEO needing to clarify the company's position amidst a stock decline [18][19] 分组5 - Honeywell's upcoming earnings report is complicated by its plans to split into multiple businesses, which may lead to stock volatility [21][22] - Caterpillar is expected to perform well due to its role in providing backup generators for data centers, contrasting with past performance trends [24] - Apple has faced stock declines due to rising storage costs, which may impact its gross margins, but the recommendation is to hold rather than trade [25][26] 分组6 - American Express typically reports strong earnings but often sees stock declines post-reporting, presenting a buying opportunity [27] - Chevron and Exxon are highlighted for their strong cash flow and buyback programs, with Chevron favored for its consistency and potential benefits from operations in Venezuela [28]

Core Insights - The World Economic Forum in Davos highlighted the contrasting views on AI's impact on jobs, with some leaders predicting total job replacement while others foresee job growth over the next decade [1][2] Group 1: AI and Workforce Dynamics - The shift from AI-driven efficiency to AI-driven growth is anticipated, with CEOs focusing on deriving value and profit from AI implementation rather than solely on workforce reduction [2] - Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei predicts that software engineers may become obsolete within six to twelve months due to AI advancements [2] - A unicorn AI startup CEO believes that AI will create more jobs than it replaces, suggesting a potential surge in billionaires similar to the internet boom [2] Group 2: Perspectives on Job Replacement - A Big Tech executive views AI as a human substitute, indicating that nearly every job could be replaced as AI technology improves [2] - An optimistic Asian tech CEO predicts a V-shaped job curve, with an initial decline in jobs followed by a significant rise as AI creates new roles [2] - ServiceNow CEO Bill McDermott emphasizes a commitment to not lay off employees, instead repurposing them into new roles as AI takes over certain functions [2] Group 3: Job Market Trends - David Sacks, a venture capitalist, argues that concerns about job replacement are exaggerated compared to current job numbers, warning that American pessimism could hinder progress in the AI race against China [2] - Toptal CEO Taso Du Val reports an increase in job demand in various sectors, countering the narrative of job shrinkage [2]