Summary of the Americas Thematic Focus List Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - **Industry**: The thematic focus is on various sectors across North America and Latin America, particularly in technology, energy, healthcare, and education. - **Companies Featured**: The focus list includes notable companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, NVIDIA, Eli Lilly, and Walmart, among others. Key Themes for 2026 1. **Tech Diffusion**: Emphasizes the rapid adoption of AI technologies across various sectors, with significant implications for productivity and competitive dynamics [12][14]. 2. **The Future of Energy**: Focuses on the increasing demand for energy driven by AI infrastructure and the transition to renewable energy sources [12][17]. 3. **The Multipolar World**: Highlights the shift towards localized supply chains and national economic security, impacting multinational corporations [12][13]. 4. **Societal Shifts**: Explores the implications of demographic changes, AI-driven employment disruption, and evolving consumer preferences [12][18]. Americas Thematic Focus List - **List Composition**: The focus list includes 18 high-conviction stock ideas, with a target holding period of 12-18 months [9][20]. - **Key Companies on the List**: - **Amazon (AMZN)**: Positioned as a leader in AI infrastructure, with a projected 32% upside to a price target of $238.18 [23]. - **Microsoft (MSFT)**: Expected to capture significant AI spending, with a 42% upside to a price target of $456.66 [23]. - **Eli Lilly (LLY)**: A leader in the GLP-1 market, with a 25% upside to a price target of $1,032.97 [23]. - **Walmart (WMT)**: Leveraging AI for operational efficiency, with a 13% upside to a price target of $119.20 [23]. Methodology and Specifications - **Focus List Size**: 15-20 stocks, with equal weighting upon construction [21]. - **Sector Weights**: No fixed sector weights, aiming for diversification [21][22]. - **Regional Weights**: Targeting 80-85% in the USA and 15-20% in Latin America [28]. Important Insights and Data - **Amazon's Growth**: Amazon's custom silicon strategy has grown 150% sequentially, indicating strong demand for its AI capabilities [29]. - **Eli Lilly's Market Potential**: The global diabesity market is projected to exceed $150 billion by the early 2030s, with significant growth opportunities for Eli Lilly [39]. - **NVIDIA's Dominance**: NVIDIA is positioned to capture a significant share of the projected $3-4 trillion in annual AI infrastructure spending by the end of the decade [53]. - **Walmart's AI Strategy**: Walmart's AI initiatives have led to a 50% automation rate in its supply chain, significantly reducing delivery costs [68]. Conclusion The Americas Thematic Focus List presents a strategic overview of high-conviction investment opportunities across key sectors, driven by transformative themes such as technology diffusion and energy transition. The insights provided highlight the potential for significant growth and the evolving landscape of investment in the Americas.

Core Viewpoint - Nu Holdings has experienced significant growth, with its shares rising 350% over the past three years, and is positioned to continue its success in the Latin American financial services market due to a high concentration of unbanked and underbanked citizens [2][3]. Company Performance - Revenue increased by 31% year over year to $11.1 billion through the first nine months of 2025, with a customer base of 127 million, including 60% of the Brazilian adult population and 17 million customers in Mexico and Colombia [3]. - The company reported a net income of $2 billion in the first nine months of 2025, with a monthly average cost to serve a customer of $0.90 and a monthly average revenue per active customer of $13.40 [4]. Strategic Focus - Nu Holdings aims to become AI-first, integrating foundation models into its operations to enhance customer experience and operational efficiency [5]. Market Position and Competition - The company faces competition from established financial institutions like MercadoLibre and Itau Unibanco, which may impact its market share as the Latin American financial landscape evolves [7]. - Nu operates in a developing market, facing unique challenges such as political instability, currency fluctuations, and potential regulatory changes [9]. Investment Considerations - Investors may consider purchasing Nu shares before the Q4 2025 financial results are released on February 25, as this could provide insights into customer growth, revenue, and net income [10]. - The current valuation of Nu, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.7, presents a compelling investment opportunity [11].

Core Insights - Investing in financial stocks may seem risky due to declining interest rates affecting traditional banks' profits, but fintech companies like SoFi and Nu could present long-term investment opportunities as they attract customers from older banks [1][2] Group 1: SoFi - SoFi, founded in 2011, has evolved from offering only student loans to a comprehensive online platform providing various financial services, including auto loans, mortgages, personal loans, credit cards, insurance, and trading tools [4] - The company has experienced rapid growth, increasing its membership from 2.5 million in 2021 to 12.6 million by Q3 2025, with products in use rising from 1.9 million to 18.6 million [5] - Analysts project SoFi's revenue and adjusted EBITDA to grow at a CAGR of 23% and 38% respectively from 2025 to 2027, with an enterprise value of $31.5 billion, indicating it is reasonably valued at 19 times this year's adjusted EBITDA [7] Group 2: Nu Holdings - Nu, founded in 2013, operates NuBank, the leading direct bank in Latin America, and has successfully attracted younger customers while addressing the needs of a largely unbanked adult population in the region [10] - Similar to SoFi, Nu has outpaced traditional banks in growth by leveraging its digital-native platform to appeal to younger demographics [9]

Core Insights - Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) is leveraging AI to enhance risk mitigation and achieve efficient scalability, with CEO David Velez-Osomo highlighting an AI-first approach as key to low-cost product scalability and unlocking new revenue streams [1][9] Financial Performance - The company has experienced a sequential revenue growth of 14% in the third quarter of 2025, alongside a 19% increase in net income and a 200 basis points expansion in margins [2][3][9] - Monthly average revenue per active customer has reached $13.4, with a monthly activity rate of 83% [4] Customer Growth - Nu Holdings added 4.3 million customers in the third quarter of 2025, bringing the total customer count to 127 million, demonstrating the effectiveness of the AI-first strategy [4][9] AI Implementation - The company is utilizing AI for risk mitigation through the development of nuFormer, which enhances understanding of customer needs and allows for personalized recommendations without increasing risk [5][9] - The AI-first strategy is positioned as a digital banking moat, enabling the company to set benchmarks for data-driven financial offerings in the fintech market [6] Market Position and Valuation - NU's stock has increased by 20.2% over the past six months, compared to the industry's growth of 26.8% [7] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 19.27X, which is above the industry average of 11.16X and higher than peers Credicorp and Itau Unibanco [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for EPS for 2025 is set at 60 cents, with a recent upward revision of 3.4% [14]

Core Thesis - Nu Holdings Ltd. is positioned for significant growth in the U.S. market through its recent filing for a national bank charter, which will enable it to expand operations and better serve underserved communities [2][5]. Expansion Strategy - The filing for a U.S. national bank charter is a critical step for Nu, allowing it to operate across all 50 states and target low-income and Latin American communities [2][4]. - Nu's expansion strategy includes offering no-fee accounts, competitive credit cards, high deposit interest, loans, investment products, crypto services, and low-cost remittances, appealing to an estimated 60 million potential customers [4][5]. Competitive Advantage - Nu leverages cloud-based infrastructure, AI, and automation to maintain a structural cost advantage over traditional U.S. banks, enabling scalable and low-cost operations [5]. - The company has a strong balance sheet and regulatory experience across three countries, which enhances its likelihood of receiving approval for the bank charter [3][5]. Market Opportunity - The U.S. market represents a multibillion-dollar opportunity for Nu, with the potential to replicate its successful growth trajectory in Latin America [5]. - Although meaningful profits are projected to be years away, the filing indicates Nu's long-term ambition to establish itself as a dominant low-cost digital bank [5]. Performance Metrics - Nu Holdings Ltd.'s stock was trading at $17.04 as of January 12th, with trailing and forward P/E ratios of 33.03 and 21.23 respectively [1]. - The stock has appreciated approximately 29.77% since a previous bullish thesis was published, reflecting continued execution and growth in the region [6].

Core Insights - Investing in the intersection of financial services and technology offers significant opportunities, with one fintech stock, Nu Holdings, experiencing a 62% increase in 2025 and a 364% rise over the past three years as of January 12 [1] Company Performance - Nu Holdings has shown remarkable financial performance, with a 42% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 2025, and analysts project a 31% revenue growth for 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3][4] - The company has expanded its customer base significantly, reaching 127 million customers by the end of Q3 2025, up from 70 million three years prior, with a strong presence in Brazil where 60% of the adult population are customers [4] Market Potential - Latin America presents long-term growth potential due to a high number of unbanked and underbanked individuals, coupled with increasing smartphone and internet penetration, which positions Nu for continued success [5] Valuation and Investment Opportunity - Nu Holdings is currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 21.8, which is attractive compared to the S&P 500's 22.4 multiple, suggesting that investors are not overpaying for the stock [6] - The company's scalable digital banking model, which avoids significant operating costs associated with physical branches, has led to substantial growth in both revenue and customer numbers, making it an appealing investment opportunity [7]

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on following a stock's recent price trends, aiming to buy high and sell higher, with the expectation that established trends will continue [1] Company Overview: Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) - Nu Holdings Ltd. currently holds a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating strong momentum characteristics [3] - The company has a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting a favorable outlook based on historical performance metrics [4] Price Performance - Over the past week, NU shares increased by 2.59%, while the Zacks Banks - Foreign industry saw a slight decline of 0.15% [6] - In a longer timeframe, NU's monthly price change is 2.22%, compared to the industry's performance of 3.25% [6] - Over the last quarter, NU shares rose by 8.66%, and over the past year, they increased by 51.79%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which rose by 4.96% and 20.67% respectively [7] Trading Volume - NU's average 20-day trading volume is 31,139,958 shares, which serves as a bullish indicator when combined with rising stock prices [8] Earnings Outlook - In the past two months, three earnings estimates for NU have been revised upwards, with no downward revisions, leading to an increase in the consensus estimate from $0.58 to $0.60 [10] - For the next fiscal year, three estimates have also moved upwards without any downward revisions [10] Conclusion - Given the strong momentum indicators and positive earnings outlook, NU is positioned as a promising investment opportunity with a Momentum Score of A and a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [12]

Core Viewpoint - Nu Holdings has experienced significant growth, with shares increasing by 61.6% in 2025, driven by its expansion in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia, and is now trading near an all-time high [1][2]. Group 1: Growth and Market Expansion - Nu Bank has achieved widespread adoption in Brazil, with over half of the adult population using its products, attributed to low fees and an easy-to-use mobile app [3]. - The company has expanded into Mexico, reaching 13 million customers, and is aggressively growing in Colombia, where it has captured 10% of the population [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Nu Holdings reported a net income of $2.5 billion over the last twelve months, a significant turnaround from previous losses, indicating strong profit potential as the business matures [5]. - The stock currently trades at a market cap of $80 billion, with a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of approximately 32, which is considered premium compared to other banking stocks [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The rapid addition of new customers and potential entry into more Latin American markets suggest that earnings will continue to grow, which may normalize the current high P/E ratio [8][9].

Core Insights - Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) has achieved a 33.6% increase in stock price over the past six months, outperforming the industry average of 25.8% and the Zacks S&P 500 Composite's 14.8% return [1] - The company has surpassed industry peers such as ING Group (27.7% growth) and Royal Bank of Canada (30.4% growth) [1] Stock Performance - NU's stock rose by 4.9% recently, compared to ING Group's 4.1% and Royal Bank of Canada's 1.3% growth [4] Revenue Growth and Customer Base - Nu Holdings has expanded its customer base to 127 million, adding over 4 million users in the third quarter of 2025, with an activity rate exceeding 83% [5][6] - The company focuses on recurring revenues, which enhances performance stability amid macroeconomic pressures [5] Business Model and Efficiency - NU's strategy includes high-engagement products and low-cost deposits, moving away from higher-risk credit [6] - The tech-driven platform allows for operational efficiency, directing incremental revenues towards a cost-effective structure [8] Capital Efficiency - NU's trailing 12-month return on equity is 30.1%, significantly higher than the industry average of 11.4% [9] - The return on invested capital stands at 14.3%, compared to the industry average of 3.4%, indicating effective capital deployment [9] Financial Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NU's 2025 revenues is $15.6 billion, reflecting a 35.7% growth year-over-year [11] - EPS estimates for 2025 are set at 60 cents, indicating a 33.3% year-over-year growth, with 2026 expected to see a 42.5% increase [11] Analyst Confidence - Over the past 60 days, three EPS estimates for both 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward, with no downward revisions, showing increased analyst confidence [12] Investment Recommendation - NU presents a strong growth narrative, driven by its ability to generate recurring revenues and mitigate macroeconomic challenges [13] - The stock is fundamentally strong, with profitability metrics indicating above industry-average returns, leading to a recommendation for investors to buy [14]

Core Insights - The article discusses the importance of tracking broad economic themes and their implications for securities with asymmetric return profiles [1] Group 1: Economic Themes - The focus is on macroeconomic trends and their potential impact on investment strategies [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The article emphasizes value investing as a key approach in navigating the current economic landscape [1]