2025.11.25 作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 时值年末，华尔街机构开始陆续发布报告展望新的一年。虽然近期对于科技股估值的担忧引发了股指回 撤，三大股指今年以来依然表现不俗，均超过10%。 展望明年，机构普遍对标普500指数给出了较为乐观的预测，目标点位集中在7400-7800点区间，核心驱 动因素多指向人工智能推动的科技股盈利增长，同时也提及了经济下行、中期选举等潜在风险。 这些代表客户做决策的投资者（如投资组合经理）是 "潜在上行空间的来源"，同时股市还将继续受益 于 "跨资产流入热潮"，他补充道。德意志银行预测，2026 年标普 500 指数盈利将表现强劲，每股收益 （EPS）预计达到 320 美元（同比增长 14.2%），股票回购也将保持增长势头。 虽然当前标普500指数的市盈率为25倍，远高于15.3倍的历史均值，但他认为股票估值将维持高位。"在 股市供需关系强劲的背景下，我们预计市盈率即便不进一步走高，也将保持在当前水平。"他表示。 强劲的美国经济也是其看涨美股的重要依据 ——不过德意志银行预计，2026年美国国内生产总值 （GDP）增速将从今年的3.2% 小幅放缓至3.1%。该行的基准预测显示， ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 2023-2024年，韩股在熊市底部震荡近2 年。估值也比较低,像2024年8-9月，咱 们全球股票指数估值表里,韩股的市盈 率在10-12倍上下，市净率一度不到1。 估值比当时的港股恒生指数略高，但在 全球也处于比较低的水平。 (2) 在美联储进入这一轮降息周期后, 韩股走出了长达三四年的熊市,随后- 年里韩股也出现了大幅上涨。 港股、韩股,以及A股的小微盘指数,都 是容易受到资金流动性影响的品种。 (1) 2021-2023年，美元大幅加息。 韩股从2021年的高点，下跌近40%。 并在今年下半年加速上涨。 韩国投资者本身也是以赌性闻名全球。 ,1,11 一 一 小小 一 一 一 小小 0 1 十 小 小 0 1 十 小 小 1 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 ...

证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（1117-1121） 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年11月22日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年11月21日 目录 4 图表2、3：A股整体PE(TTM)、A股剔除金融和石油石化PE(TTM，剔除负值) 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 4 16.77 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2010-01 2011-01 2012-01 2013-01 2014-01 2015-01 2016-01 2017-01 2018-01 2019-01 2020-01 2021-01 2022-0 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Hurun Rich List reveals that the He family of Midea Group (000333) has a wealth of 278 billion yuan, marking an 18% increase [1] - Midea Group recently completed its first interim dividend, distributing 5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 3.8 billion yuan [1][3] Dividend Distribution - Over the past three years, the He family has received around 20 billion yuan in dividends from Midea Group [2][7] - The He family directly holds 0.42% of Midea Group shares and controls a total of 28.75% through Midea Holdings [2] - The recent interim dividend allows the He family to receive approximately 1.09 billion yuan [3] Historical Dividend Performance - Since its overall listing in 2013, Midea Group has distributed over 134 billion yuan in cash dividends, nearing 140 billion yuan with the latest interim dividend [4] - The company has implemented share buybacks exceeding 33 billion yuan [4] - Midea Group has increased its dividend payout ratio since 2022, with dividends of 25 yuan, 30 yuan, and 35 yuan per 10 shares in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively, maintaining a payout ratio around 60% [4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Midea Group reported revenues of 364.72 billion yuan, a 13.9% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 37.88 billion yuan, up 19.5% [9] - Midea Group leads in revenue and net profit growth among the three major white goods manufacturers, including Haier and Gree [9] Shareholder Insights - The largest individual shareholder, Chairman Fang Hongbo, holds 1.17 million shares and has received approximately 1.11 billion yuan in cash dividends over the past three and a half years [9] - Midea Group's stock is perceived to be undervalued, prompting share buybacks to enhance shareholder returns [9] Business Segments - Midea Group's B2B segment has a lower gross margin of 21.4%, compared to over 29% for its C2C smart home business [10] - Despite stable growth, Midea Group's valuation is considered the highest among its peers, with a dynamic P/E ratio of about 12 times, compared to Haier's 11 times and Gree's below 8 times [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. stock market is significantly overvalued, while there are still many undervalued stocks in the Chinese stock market, leading to a continuous rise in major indices in China [1][3] - The Chinese economy has experienced three phases of growth: post-1978 reform and opening up, attracting foreign investment in the 1990s, and the housing system reform in 1998 [1] - The management of Hong Kong Lianhua Asset Management has been focusing on market research and fund management, indicating a positive outlook on the Chinese market [3] Group 2 - The company has been managing a macro fund that includes various assets such as stocks, commodities, and currencies, and has maintained a position in Nikkei average stock index futures [3] - The positive attitude towards monetary easing in Japan is expected to contribute to the rise of the Nikkei average stock index futures [3] - The deterioration of U.S.-China relations is identified as a risk factor for the investment landscape [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced its most significant intraday reversal since April, with major indices dropping sharply, leading to a loss of over $2.7 trillion in market value, raising concerns among Wall Street traders about the underlying causes of the decline [5][6]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 1.6%, marking a significant drop, while the Nasdaq 100 index saw a decline of 2.4%, reaching a new low since September, with a cumulative drop of 7.9% from its record high on October 29 [5][6]. - The VIX index, which measures expected stock volatility, rose above 26 for the first time since April, indicating increased market uncertainty [5][6]. Key Factors Behind the Decline - Concerns about whether AI projects can generate sufficient revenue or profits to justify substantial technological investments resurfaced [6]. - The strong employment report from September was interpreted as a signal that the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates again this year [6]. - The drop in Bitcoin to a six-month low was viewed as a risk-off signal contributing to the stock market's decline [6]. - High stock valuations and rising volatility ahead of the expiration of approximately $3.1 trillion in nominal options were also cited as potential factors [6][7]. Analyst Insights - Analysts highlighted various unresolved economic and market challenges, including labor market strength, tariffs, inflation, and the sustainability of AI investments [11]. - Concerns about overvaluation and the trend of debt financing potentially overshadowing shareholder returns were emphasized [12]. - The mechanical outflow of funds from trend-following strategies could continue in the coming days, leading to further selling pressure [12]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced its most severe intraday reversal since April, with major indices dropping to their lowest levels in over two months, despite strong earnings reports from Nvidia and Walmart [1][2]. Market Performance - The Nasdaq 100 index fell nearly 5% from its intraday high, closing down 2.4%, marking a 7.9% pullback from its record high on October 29 [1]. - The S&P 500 index initially rose 1.9% but ended the day down 1.6%, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding $2.7 trillion [2]. - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, closed above 26 points for the first time since April [3]. Reasons for the Decline - Concerns resurfaced regarding whether AI can generate sufficient revenue or profits to justify substantial investments [5]. - Strong non-farm payroll data from September was interpreted by some traders as a signal that the Federal Reserve may end its rate cuts this year [5]. - Bitcoin's drop to a six-month low was seen as a risk-off signal contributing to the market's decline [5]. - High valuations and increased market volatility ahead of Friday's options expiration were additional concerns [5]. Multiple Negative Factors - Traders cited various explanations for the market drop, including unresolved economic and market issues such as labor market strength, tariffs, inflation, and the sustainability of AI investments [6]. - The strong employment report led some traders to believe it indicated the end of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [6]. - The cryptocurrency market's downturn, driven by retail investors, highlighted vulnerabilities in the market [8]. Impact of Nvidia - Nvidia was the largest drag on the Nasdaq 100 index, initially rising 2.4% before closing down 3.2%, erasing nearly $400 billion in market value [7]. - Investor concerns about the sustainability of AI chip spending overshadowed the company's better-than-expected revenue outlook [7]. High-Risk Assets Affected - The sell-off was particularly pronounced in high-risk sectors, with short-sold indices dropping 3.5% and Goldman Sachs' unprofitable tech index falling 3.7% [9]. - The Russell Microcap Index declined 1.9%, extending its pullback from record highs to 10% [9]. - Major companies like Tesla, Alphabet, Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom, and Amazon saw market value fluctuations exceeding $100 billion [9]. Volatility and Options Expiration - The Nasdaq 100 volatility index (VXN) rose above 32 points for the first time since April, coinciding with the expiration of approximately $3.1 trillion in nominal value options [10]. - Mechanical fund outflows may remain strong in the coming days before completely dissipating [10]. - With Nvidia's earnings report concluded and the Fed unlikely to cut rates in December, investors are questioning what could drive a year-end rebound [10].

Core Insights - Amplify's growth income ETF, QDVO, is identified as a Strong Buy due to its active underlying portfolio with a growth bias, which aligns closely with the S&P 500 while seeking additional growth opportunities [1] Group 1: Company Analysis - QDVO has a growth-oriented investment strategy, focusing on equity valuation and market trends to uncover high-growth investment opportunities [1] - The analysis is backed by over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management, emphasizing a blend of fundamental and technical analysis [1] Group 2: Research Methodology - The research approach combines rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation, particularly focusing on macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis [1] - The analysis aims to provide actionable ideas for investors looking to outperform the market [1]

Director McNair Darrell L's recent purchase of 3,000 shares increases his total holdings to 63,912 shares, signaling confidence in NYSE:AP.Despite a negative P/E ratio of -9.69, the price-to-sales ratio of 0.12 and enterprise value to sales ratio of 0.41 suggest the stock might be undervalued.The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 2.33 indicates high reliance on debt, yet a current ratio of 1.84 shows sufficient liquidity to meet short-term obligations.Ampco-Pittsburgh Corporation, trading on the NYSE under ...

Core Insights - Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) has seen a significant decline of 49% year-to-date, with a notable drop of 27% in the past month, attributed to reduced customer traffic and rising labor and food costs [2][3][10] - The company's stock is currently trading at a premium valuation, which may not be sustainable if growth slows or investor sentiment shifts [7][10][16] Financial Performance - Revenue growth has been moderate, with annual increases ranging from 7% to 12%, and a year-over-year increase of 7.5% in the latest quarter [12] - Chipotle maintains a strong financial position with a 16.9% operating margin, 13% net income margin, and a solid balance sheet featuring $5 billion in debt against a $41 billion market cap [12] Valuation Metrics - Chipotle's current valuation stands at 3.4x sales, 26.4x earnings, and 25.8x free cash flow, compared to the S&P 500's 3.1x, 23.4x, and 20.0x respectively, indicating a significant premium [7][10] - Elevated valuations can lead to swift corrections in stock price, particularly if growth expectations are not met [7][10] Market Behavior - Historical data shows that Chipotle has experienced sharp declines during market downturns, including a 38% drop during the 2022 inflation shock and a 50% decline during the 2020 Covid crash [13] - The company typically rebounds faster than the market, but initial downturns are generally steeper, highlighting the volatility associated with premium-priced stocks [9][10] Investor Sentiment - High expectations and premium pricing mean that even minor disappointments can lead to significant stock price reactions [14][16] - A potential downside scenario suggests a plausible 40-50% decline during widespread market downturns or shifts in investor expectations, reflecting the inherent risks of holding premium-valued stocks [15][16]