李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 证券研究报告 最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0224-0227） 2026年2月28日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 注：自2010年1月起，截至2026年2月27日 目录 风险提示 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、机构重仓个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业与个股估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 图表4、5：上证指数、沪深300、创业板指等指数PE(TTM，剔除负值) 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 5 14.93 13.45 5 10 15 20 25 20 ...

Core Insights - Crown Holdings, Inc. is a leading global supplier of packaging products, specializing in metal packaging for various consumer goods [1] - The company competes with major players like Ball Corporation and Ardagh Group, known for its innovative solutions and strong market presence [1] Insider Activity - Gifford Gerard H, Executive Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, sold 13,373 shares at approximately $113.98 each, retaining 106,310 shares, indicating confidence in the company's future [2] - CEO Timothy Donahue sold 7,500 shares at an average price of $110.67, totaling around $830,000, reducing his ownership by 1.56% while still holding shares valued at approximately $52.5 million [3] Stock Performance - Crown Holdings' stock opened at $114.80, reflecting a 0.97% increase, with trading between $113.10 and $114.96 [4] - Over the past year, the stock has experienced significant volatility, with a low of $75.90 and a high of $115.85, and the company's market capitalization is approximately $13.24 billion [4] Financial Health - The company has a current ratio of 1.03 and a quick ratio of 0.66, indicating moderate liquidity [5] - A debt-to-equity ratio of 1.55 suggests a higher reliance on debt financing, while a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.02 and a PEG ratio of 1.34 indicate reasonable stock valuation [5] - The beta of 0.73 reflects lower volatility compared to the market [5]

Core Viewpoint - AngloGold Ashanti PLC is a significant player in the gold mining industry, with strong anticipated earnings and revenue growth, despite rising short interest in its stock [1][6]. Financial Performance - The company is expected to report quarterly earnings on February 20, 2026, with an estimated EPS of $1.90 and projected revenue of approximately $2.99 billion [1][6]. - Total sales for the fourth quarter are estimated to reach $3.03 billion, marking a 73% increase from the same period last year [4]. - Over the past year, AU shares have surged by 258.3%, currently trading at 12.60 times forward earnings, which is below the industry average, suggesting potential undervaluation [4]. Market Sentiment - In January, short interest in AU increased by 29.1% to over 5.4 million shares, indicating a growing number of investors betting against the stock [2]. - The average daily trading volume is around 4.1 million shares, resulting in a days-to-cover ratio of 1.3 days, reflecting the time it would take for short sellers to cover their positions [2]. Institutional Interest - Institutional investors, including HHM Wealth Advisors LLC and Zions Bancorporation National Association UT, have acquired new stakes valued at $25,000 and $31,000, respectively, indicating confidence in the company's future performance [3][6]. Valuation Metrics - The company's financial metrics show a P/E ratio of approximately 24.40 and a price-to-sales ratio of about 6.38, suggesting a strong position and potential undervaluation compared to peers [5][6]. - The enterprise value to sales ratio is around 6.35, and the enterprise value to operating cash flow ratio is approximately 14.14, providing insight into the company's valuation and cash flow generation [5]. - AU has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30 and a current ratio of 2.58, indicating a strong ability to cover short-term liabilities [5].

Core Viewpoint - The market remains skeptical about Netflix's acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, leading to a significant decline in Netflix's stock price despite its strong financial performance and potential for growth [1][8]. Financial Performance - Netflix ended 2025 with a robust balance sheet, featuring $4.4 billion in long-term debt net of cash, $13.3 billion in operating income, and $11 billion in net income from $45.2 billion in revenue, resulting in an operating margin of 29.4% and a net profit margin of 24.3% [3][4]. - The company's earnings per share reached a record $2.53 in 2025, indicating strong profitability [4]. Valuation Changes - At its peak, Netflix traded at over 60 times trailing earnings and over 50 times forward earnings, but the recent sell-off has reduced its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to 32.5 and forward P/E to 26.3, making it less expensive compared to the S&P 500's forward P/E of 23.6 [5][7]. - The transition from a high-growth stock to a more reasonably priced asset has raised questions about investor confidence [7]. Acquisition Details - Netflix announced the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery for $27.75 per share, with an enterprise value of $82.7 billion, which includes $10.7 billion in net debt [9]. - The acquisition will increase Netflix's leverage as Warner Bros. carries more debt, and Netflix's decision to amend the deal to an all-cash transaction will require taking on additional debt [10]. Strategic Implications - The acquisition is expected to enhance Netflix's intellectual property and content library, potentially stabilizing HBO and HBO Max as streaming services [11]. - While the deal could lead to faster earnings growth, it poses risks to Netflix's historically high-margin, low-leverage business model, prompting some investors to consider selling [12]. Investment Perspective - For investors who believe in the strategic rationale behind the acquisition and Netflix's ability to manage the new debt, the current valuation presents a compelling buying opportunity [13]. - However, uncertainty surrounding the acquisition's impact on Netflix's business model may keep the stock under pressure until more clarity is provided [13].

Core Viewpoint - Costco Wholesale's stock has seen a significant increase of 16% at the start of 2026, approaching its all-time high of $1,078, with investor sentiment rising ahead of its upcoming earnings report on March 5 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In the last reported earnings on December 11, 2025, Costco's revenue increased by approximately 8.3%, with a comparable growth rate of 6.4%, indicating solid business performance [4]. - For December, a crucial holiday month, Costco's comparable sales growth rate was 7% across all regions, suggesting a strong quarter is likely in March [7]. Stock Valuation - Costco's stock is currently trading at a high price-to-earnings multiple of 54, significantly above the S&P 500 average of 25, indicating it is overvalued [10]. - Despite beating expectations in its last quarterly report, the stock did not see a corresponding increase and instead fell in the subsequent weeks [9]. Market Data - As of the latest data, Costco's current stock price is $998.31, with a market capitalization of $444 billion [8]. - The stock has a gross margin of 12.88% and a dividend yield of 0.64% [9].

Group 1: A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) of the A-share market is 17.99, with a historical average of 27.52, indicating a significant undervaluation[7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a current PE of 16.89, while the Shenzhen Component Index stands at 32.20, reflecting a divergence in valuation across indices[14] - The risk premium for the A-share market is currently at 2.96%, which is above the historical average, suggesting potential for future gains[16] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE of 12.11, with a historical maximum of 22.67, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to historical levels[58] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE of 22.13, which is significantly lower than its historical maximum of 65.18, suggesting potential for recovery[60] - The median PE for key Hong Kong sectors, such as Financials and Consumer Staples, is 10.06 and 22.07 respectively, indicating sector-specific valuation opportunities[67] Group 3: U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE of 28.69, which is above its historical average, indicating a potentially overvalued market[81] - The NASDAQ Index shows a current PE of 40.55, significantly higher than its historical minimum of 16.46, suggesting high investor expectations[89] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a current PE of 28.81, reflecting a similar trend of elevated valuations compared to historical norms[94] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - Non-bank financials and food & beverage sectors in A-shares are currently at historically low PE levels, while technology sectors like computers and electronics are at high PE levels[24] - In Hong Kong, the healthcare sector has a median PE of 45.27, indicating strong growth expectations compared to other sectors[67] - Key U.S. bank stocks have a median PB of 1.34, which is lower than the historical average, suggesting potential value in the banking sector[102]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management in uncovering high-growth investment opportunities within the equity market [1]. Group 1: Expertise and Experience - The analyst has over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, focusing on equity valuation, market trends, and portfolio optimization [1]. - Previous role as Vice President at Barclays involved leading teams in model validation, stress testing, and regulatory finance, showcasing deep expertise in both fundamental and technical analysis [1]. Group 2: Research Approach - The research approach combines rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation, aiming to provide actionable ideas for investors [1]. - There is a particular interest in macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis to help investors outperform the market [1].

Core Thesis - StubHub Holdings, Inc. is viewed as a misunderstood IPO, currently trading below its debut price of $23.50, despite positive ratings from major banks like Goldman Sachs, which has a target price of $46 [3][5] Company Overview - StubHub operates a ticketing marketplace for live events globally and holds approximately 50% of the U.S. secondary ticketing market, benefiting from strong network effects, deep liquidity, and brand trust [3][5] - The company is expanding into the primary ticketing market, which represents a strategic shift involving direct contracts with venues and event organizers [3][4] Financial Projections - Based on projected earnings for 2026, a 20x earnings multiple suggests a valuation near $50 per share, which is reasonable for a leading company with consistent growth and competitive advantages [4] - Even under conservative assumptions, a mid-to-high $30 valuation appears defensible when compared to other marketplace and transaction-based businesses [4] Market Position and Investor Sentiment - Despite strong fundamentals, StubHub's stock has been overlooked since its IPO, creating a mismatch between improving business momentum and investor attention [5] - The current share price reflects significant skepticism, but StubHub's dominant market position and growing presence in primary ticketing may lead to a substantial rerating for patient investors [5][6]

Core Insights - The iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF (DGRO) has outperformed the S&P 500 since being rated a Buy in July 2025, even during a strong bull market for tech-driven growth [1] Company and Industry Analysis - The analyst has over 20 years of experience in quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management, focusing on equity valuation, market trends, and portfolio optimization [1] - The analyst previously held a Vice President position at Barclays, leading teams in model validation, stress testing, and regulatory finance, indicating a strong background in both fundamental and technical analysis [1] - The research approach combines rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation, emphasizing macroeconomic trends, corporate earnings, and financial statement analysis [1]

Core Insights - High valuations for companies are sustainable only if profits increase, and Palantir Technologies is beginning to show signs of profit growth [1] Financial Performance - Palantir's recent financial results indicate a positive trend, with revenue growth contributing to improved profitability [1] - The company is experiencing a shift towards more sustainable financial metrics, which may enhance investor confidence [1] Market Position - Palantir's high valuation is underpinned by its unique position in the data analytics industry, which is increasingly critical for businesses [1] - The company's ability to leverage its technology for various applications is a key factor in its market competitiveness [1]