最新A股、港股、美股估值怎么看？ ——估值周报（0818-0822） 证券研究报告 李立峰 SAC NO:S1120520090003 冯逸华 SAC NO:S1120523070007 2025年08月23日 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 全球主要指数估值总览 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 2 图表1：全球主要指数PE(TTM) 注：自2010年1月起，截至2025年8月22日 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 上证指数 创业板指 恒生指数 恒生科技 标普500 纳斯达克指数 道琼斯工业指数 日经225 德国DAX 中位数 最大值 最小值 现值 A股 港股 美股 日股 德股 目录 风险提示 3 一、A股市场估值水平 二、A股行业估值水平 三、部分机构集中持有个股估值水平 四、港股市场估值水平 五、港股行业估值水平 六、美股市场估值水平 七、中概股估值、中美银行股估值比较 1.1 A股绝对估值变化 4 4 图表2、3：A股整体PE(TTM)、A股剔除金融和石油石化PE(TTM，剔除负值) 资料来源： wind ，华西证券研究所 17.19 5 10 15 20 25 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of quantitative research, financial modeling, and risk management in equity valuation and market trends [1] - It highlights the experience of the analyst in leading teams for model validation, stress testing, and regulatory finance, showcasing a strong background in both fundamental and technical analysis [1] - The collaboration between the analyst and their research partner aims to deliver high-quality, data-driven insights, focusing on macroeconomic trends and corporate earnings [1] Company and Industry Analysis - The analyst has over 20 years of experience, indicating a deep understanding of the investment landscape and the ability to identify high-growth opportunities [1] - The approach combines rigorous risk management with a long-term perspective on value creation, which is crucial for investors looking to outperform the market [1] - The focus on financial statement analysis and corporate earnings suggests a thorough examination of company performance metrics, which is essential for making informed investment decisions [1]

格隆汇8月20日｜美股连续第四日走低，投资者在零售业绩密集披露和央行年会即将召开之际，对高企 的估值产生质疑。标普500指数下跌0.7%，纳指跌逾1%。"与基本面相比，股票估值很昂贵。"橡树资本 管理公司联席董事长霍华德·马克斯在接受采访时表示。"市场已经16年没有出现过严重的调整，人们逐 渐习惯于不去考虑市场修正。"阿波罗管理首席经济学家Torsten Slok在周三报告中指出："消费者支出正 承压，原因包括就业增长放缓、学生贷款还款恢复以及驱逐出境人数增加导致消费群体减少。" ...

Core Viewpoint - Berkshire Hathaway's recent reduction in its stake in Apple has attracted significant market attention, interpreted as a rational move for risk management and portfolio rebalancing rather than a bearish signal [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The sale contradicts Buffett's investment principle of "hold means buy, sell means bearish," suggesting that any sell decision indicates a less favorable risk-reward ratio for the asset at current prices [2][4] - Selling part of a position implies that the investor believes the stock's attractiveness has diminished compared to other potential investments [3][4] Group 2: Portfolio Composition - The sale is viewed as a portfolio rebalancing action due to Apple's significant share in Berkshire's holdings, which accounted for $66.639 billion or 25.8% of the portfolio [5][6] - Berkshire's total publicly traded stock holdings amount to over $250 billion, with substantial non-public assets, including insurance and utility companies, which are not detailed in the public market holdings [8][9] Group 3: Market Signals - Despite the small scale of the reduction, it signals potential concerns regarding Apple, especially when compared to other long-held positions like American Express and Coca-Cola, which have never been reduced [12][13] - Factors contributing to this concern include policy uncertainties and Apple's current valuation, which has risen significantly, reducing its attractiveness compared to historical levels [14][19][22] Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Apple's valuation has increased to a P/E ratio of 35, compared to 10-15 during Berkshire's initial investment, leading to lower expected future returns and increased sensitivity to negative news [21][22] - The company's market share in the U.S. smartphone market has fluctuated, indicating potential limits to its growth, which may not justify its high valuation [23][24]

A-shares Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 15.88, with a median of 13.44 and a maximum of 30.60[10] - The PE (TTM) for the Shanghai Composite Index is 13.72, while the CSI 300 is at 12.76[10] - The PE (TTM) for the ChiNext Index is significantly higher at 49.11, indicating a growth-oriented market segment[10] Hong Kong Stocks Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 11.52, with a median of 10.26 and a maximum of 22.67[56] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a higher PE (TTM) of 21.94, reflecting the tech sector's growth potential[62] US Stocks Valuation - The S&P 500 has a current PE (TTM) of 26.87, with a median of 20.86 and a maximum of 41.99[78] - The NASDAQ Index has a PE (TTM) of 40.41, indicating a strong valuation in the tech-heavy index[80] Sector-Specific Insights - In the A-share market, the food and beverage sector has a low PE (TTM) of 18.30, while the computer sector is at a high of 92.02[24] - The banking sector in A-shares has a PB (LF) of 0.60, indicating undervaluation compared to historical averages[27] Comparative Analysis - Chinese banks have a median PB of 0.92, while US banks like JPMorgan Chase have a median PB of 1.32, showing a valuation gap[99] - Key Chinese tech stocks like Alibaba have a median PS of 7.46, while JD.com is at 5.51, reflecting varying market sentiments[95]

Group 1 - DWS's Chief Investment Officer Vincenzo Vedda expects an increase in bond prices in the US and Eurozone, leading to a decline in yields [1] - Weak US labor market data may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider early interest rate cuts, but it is premature to claim that US Treasuries have lost their appeal to international investors [1] - Ongoing uncertainties from US-Russia tensions and trade conflicts may lead the European Central Bank to further reduce interest rates [1] Group 2 - Current market sentiment is described as "cautiously optimistic in a high-risk era," with a more balanced distribution of leading stocks compared to previous years [1] - Despite high valuations in the US stock market, the performance of companies outside the technology and financial sectors in the S&P 500 may be disappointing [1] - High valuations in both stocks and corporate bonds indicate low tolerance for negative news, suggesting that asset prices could decline rapidly upon adverse developments [1]

Group 1 - Company stock experienced a significant increase of nearly 4.8 times year-to-date, reaching a historical high before a sharp decline, with a current drop of about 5% and trading volume exceeding 3.5 billion [1] - Company issued a risk warning stating that the short-term stock price increase is significantly higher than the industry and Shanghai Composite Index, indicating potential market overheating and irrational speculation [1] - Company reported expected revenue for 2024 at 1.43 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.42%, with a projected net loss of 363 million [1] Group 2 - Company’s rolling price-to-book ratio is 22.61, significantly higher than the industry average of 5.70, indicating a risk of overvaluation [2] - Company’s stock turnover rate was 9.42% on August 13, with a cumulative turnover rate of 37.35% over the last three trading days, suggesting high trading activity [2]

Group 1: A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) of the A-share market is 15.69, with a median of 13.43 and a maximum of 30.60[10] - The PE (TTM) excluding financial and oil sectors is 23.29, indicating a higher valuation compared to the overall market[7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has a PE (TTM) of 13.31, while the ChiNext Index stands at 138.95, reflecting significant sectoral differences[14] Group 2: Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 11.41, with a median of 10.26 and a maximum of 22.67[58] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 21.87, indicating a premium valuation compared to the broader market[58] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has a PE (TTM) of 10.36, suggesting a relatively low valuation among major indices[60] Group 3: U.S. Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 28.21, with a median of 20.91 and a maximum of 41.99[78] - The NASDAQ Index shows a PE (TTM) of 40.92, reflecting a high growth expectation in technology stocks[86] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a PE (TTM) of 31.78, indicating a strong valuation relative to historical averages[90] Group 4: Sector Valuation Insights - In the A-share market, the food and beverage sector has a low PE (TTM) compared to historical averages, while the technology sector is at a high[24] - The banking sector in A-shares has a PB (LF) of 0.62, indicating undervaluation compared to historical norms[26] - The healthcare sector in Hong Kong shows a high PE (TTM) of 64.14, suggesting strong investor interest[67]

Core Viewpoint - Snap's stock (NYSE: SNAP) saw a nearly 20% decline following its Q2 earnings report, primarily due to misses on revenue, Average Revenue Per User (ARPU), and EBITDA, leading to the conclusion that the stock is not a favorable buying opportunity at this time [2][10]. Financial Performance - Snap's current valuation is approximately $8, which is considered unappealing due to concerns over its high valuation relative to its operational performance [3]. - The company has recorded revenues of $5.6 billion over the last 12 months, with a quarterly revenue increase of 9% to $1.34 billion compared to $1.24 billion a year prior [7]. - Snap's average growth rate in revenue over the past three years is 9.4%, outperforming the S&P 500's 5.2% growth [7]. Profitability Metrics - Snap's operating income over the past four quarters was -$654 million, resulting in an operating margin of -11.6%, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 18.4% [13]. - The company's net income for the last four quarters was -$546 million, indicating a net income margin of -9.7%, compared to 12.2% for the S&P 500 [13]. - Snap's profit margins are notably lower than most firms in the Trefis coverage universe [6]. Financial Stability - Snap's balance sheet is described as robust, with total assets of $7.4 billion, including $2.9 billion in cash and cash equivalents, leading to a strong cash-to-assets ratio of 39% [8][13]. - The company's debt reached $4.2 billion, resulting in a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 32%, compared to 23.6% for the S&P 500 [13]. Market Resilience - Snap's stock has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 during recent downturns, raising concerns about its resilience in potential future economic downturns [9][10]. - The stock has experienced a significant decline of 90.7% from its peak of $83.11 in September 2021 to $7.76 in October 2022, while the S&P 500 saw a peak-to-valley decline of 25.4% during the same period [14].

Core Insights - Credo Technology Group (NASDAQ: CRDO) is a high-speed connectivity solutions company that has experienced significant market interest, with share prices appreciating by nearly 300% over the past year, indicating a need for caution in investment decisions [1] Company Overview - Credo Technology Group specializes in high-speed connectivity solutions, which positions it well within a growing market [1] Market Performance - The company's share price has seen a substantial increase of approximately 300% in the last year, highlighting its strong market performance and investor interest [1]