Group 1: Market Overview - The market is uncertain about the impact of new tariffs, despite a 90-day pause agreed upon by the U.S. and China, with current tariffs on Chinese products at 30% [1] - Tariffs have been raised in various countries globally, contributing to market volatility [1] Group 2: Investment Philosophy - Investors should focus on long-term potential rather than short-term market fluctuations, as all top stocks experience price declines at some point [2] - Notable growth stocks recommended for long-term investment include Shopify, On, and Dutch Bros, which are expected to yield significant gains over at least 20 years [2] Group 3: Shopify - Shopify processed $75 billion in gross merchandise volume (GMV) in Q1 2025, marking a 23% year-over-year increase [4] - E-commerce sales in the U.S. grew 6.1% year-over-year in Q1 2025, presenting a multibillion-dollar opportunity as e-commerce sales accounted for only 16.2% of total retail sales [5] - Shopify holds a 30% market share in the U.S. e-commerce software sector, with significant growth potential internationally, where it currently ranks fourth [6] - Despite a 5% decline in stock price this year, Shopify's stock is up 78% over the past year, supported by strong long-term growth drivers [7] Group 4: On - On is an emerging activewear brand with low global brand awareness but is experiencing rapid growth and customer loyalty [8] - The company aims to position itself as a premium activewear brand, with sales increasing 43% year-over-year in Q1 2025 and gross margin widening from 59.7% to 59.9% [10] - On's stock has risen 46% over the past year, indicating strong potential for future growth as it expands into new regions [11] Group 5: Dutch Bros - Dutch Bros is a rapidly expanding coffee shop chain that recently surpassed 1,000 stores, with a goal of reaching 2,029 stores by 2029 [12] - The company reported a 29% year-over-year sales increase in Q1 2025, driven by new store openings and a 4.7% increase in same-store sales, with net income rising from $16.2 million to $22.5 million [13] - Dutch Bros stock has doubled in the past year, with significant growth potential projected for the next two decades [14]

Core Viewpoint - Amer Sports has experienced a significant stock price increase of approximately 187% since its public offering in February 2024, positioning it as a leading name in the consumer discretionary sector [1][2] Financial Performance - The company reported a strong Q1 earnings performance, with sales growth exceeding 23%, surpassing analyst expectations of just under 17% [3] - Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) more than doubled from $0.11 to $0.27, significantly exceeding forecasts [4] - Amer Sports raised its full-year EPS guidance midpoint by over 4% and increased its revenue growth guidance from 14% to 16%, both ahead of analyst expectations [4] Brand and Market Position - Amer Sports' success is largely attributed to its key brand, Arc'teryx, known for high-end outdoor clothing, particularly lightweight waterproof jackets priced between $400 and $900 [6] - The technical apparel segment, which includes Arc'teryx, saw the fastest revenue growth at 28%, contributing 45% to total revenue [7] - Sales in Greater China grew by 43%, accounting for around 25% of total revenue, while the U.S. market contributed 26% with a 12% growth rate [7][8] Direct-to-Consumer Strategy - The company's direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales grew by 39%, significantly outpacing the 12% growth in its wholesale channel, indicating a positive trend for higher margins [8] Segment Performance - The Outdoor Performance segment, which includes Salomon footwear and apparel, saw its growth rate nearly double to 25%, making up 34% of total revenue [9] - Salomon generated $1 billion in revenue in 2024, capturing less than 1% of the global $180 billion sneaker market, with plans for further product launches [10] Valuation and Analyst Ratings - Analysts have raised their price targets for Amer Sports, with an average target just under $41, indicating a potential upside of 6% from recent closing prices [11] - The stock's price-to-earnings ratio stands at nearly 49x, significantly above the industry average of 29x, reflecting its strong earnings and sales growth profile [12] Future Outlook - The company is viewed as having high growth potential, particularly in the footwear segment, but expectations for continued outperformance will need to be managed [13]

Core Viewpoint - On Holding is responding to tariffs by increasing prices, which is expected to maintain profit levels [1] Company Response - The company has announced a price increase as a strategy to counteract the impact of tariffs [1] - This approach is noted as unique compared to other companies facing similar challenges [1] Financial Implications - The price increase is anticipated to keep profits stable despite the external pressures from tariffs [1]

Group 1 - On Holding AG reported a 43% year-on-year increase in sales for Q1 2025, reaching 727 million Swiss francs [1] - The gross margin improved slightly from 59.7% to 59.9%, while net profit decreased by 38% to 56.7 million Swiss francs [1] - The company's multi-channel strategy was identified as a key factor driving sales growth beyond expectations [1] Group 2 - Direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales amounted to 276.9 million Swiss francs, while wholesale sales reached 449.7 million Swiss francs [1] - The Americas remained the largest contributor to sales, with a 32.7% increase to 437 million Swiss francs [1] - The EMEA region saw a 33.6% increase in sales to 169 million Swiss francs, and the Asia-Pacific region experienced a significant 130.1% growth to 121 million Swiss francs, driven by strong sales in China and Japan [1] Group 3 - Footwear, as the core category, generated a 40.5% increase in revenue to 681 million Swiss francs, accounting for 93.7% of total revenue [1] - Apparel sales surged by 93.1% to 38.1 million Swiss francs, becoming the fastest-growing category [1] - Accessories revenue increased by 99.2% to 7.6 million Swiss francs [1] Group 4 - Based on the strong Q1 performance, On Holding AG raised its full-year guidance for 2025, expecting at least a 28% increase in net sales (at constant exchange rates) [2] - The gross margin target was raised to 60.0%-60.5%, and the adjusted EBITDA margin is projected to be between 16.5%-17.5% [2]

Group 1 - On Holding AG reported a 43% year-on-year increase in sales for Q1 2025, reaching 727 million Swiss francs, with a gross margin increase from 59.7% to 59.9% [1] - Net profit decreased by 38% year-on-year to 56.7 million Swiss francs [1] - The brand's multi-channel strategy contributed to sales exceeding expectations, with direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales at 276.9 million Swiss francs and wholesale sales at 449.7 million Swiss francs [1] Group 2 - The Americas remained the largest contributor to sales, with a 32.7% year-on-year increase to 437 million Swiss francs, although the sales proportion decreased by 4.7 percentage points to 60.2% [1] - Approximately 90% and 10% of footwear products are produced in Vietnam and Indonesia, respectively, while 65% of apparel and accessories are produced in Vietnam [1] - Sales in the U.S. accounted for 55% and 59% of total sales in Q1 2025 and Q1 2024, respectively [1] Group 3 - Sales in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa grew by 33.6% year-on-year to 169 million Swiss francs, representing about 23.2% of total sales [2] - The Asia-Pacific region saw a significant growth of 130.1% year-on-year, reaching 121 million Swiss francs, with a sales proportion increase of 6.3 percentage points to 16.6% [2] - China and Japan were highlighted as key markets driving strong sales growth, with On planning to exceed 100 stores in China by 2026 [2]

Group 1 - On Holding AG (NYSE: ONON) reported a strong first quarter with sales increasing by 40% in constant currency [1] - The weaker USD contributed positively, resulting in reported sales growth of 43% [1]

Core Insights - The global sports brand industry is facing multiple pressures including economic slowdown, tariff impacts, rising costs, and weak consumer demand [2] - Under Armour reported a 9% decline in annual sales to $5.2 billion for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2025, with a net loss of $201 million [4][5] - On, a rising brand, experienced a 38% drop in net profit for Q1 2025 despite a 43% increase in sales, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability amid expansion costs [7][9] Under Armour - Under Armour's Q4 revenue fell 11% to $1.2 billion, but gross margin improved by 1.7 percentage points to 46.7% [4] - The company is focusing on full-price sales, reducing promotions, optimizing inventory, and implementing layoffs to enhance profitability and brand positioning [5] - North American revenue decreased by 11% to $3.1 billion, while international revenue fell by 6% to $2.1 billion, with the Asia-Pacific region down 13% to $755 million [5] On - On's Q1 2025 sales surged by 43% to 726.6 million Swiss francs, but net profit dropped by 38% to 56.7 million Swiss francs, resulting in a net profit margin of 7.8% [7] - The brand plans to increase prices in the U.S. market starting July, with potential expansion of this strategy to other markets next year [7] - The Asia-Pacific market saw a remarkable 130.1% increase in sales, becoming a key growth driver for the brand [7] Puma - Puma's Q1 2025 net profit plummeted by 64%, with sales growth of only 0.1% to €2.076 billion [10][12] - The company reported a significant drop in EBIT, down 63.7% to €57.7 million, while maintaining its sales and profit guidance for the fiscal year [12][13] - Puma is implementing cost efficiency plans and plans to cut 500 jobs globally by the end of Q2 [13] Adidas - Adidas reported a strong Q1 2025 with a 13% increase in sales to €6.15 billion, achieving a record high for the quarter [17] - The company’s operating profit surged by 82% to €610 million, driven by strong sales of retro shoe models [17] - Despite the strong performance, Adidas remains cautious about long-term goals due to geopolitical uncertainties and changing consumer sentiments [17]

Core Viewpoint - ON Holdings' stock price surged by over 10% following the Q1 earnings release and 2025 guidance update, indicating a strong performance in the high-end retail sector and a potential price reversal for the stock [3][4]. Financial Performance - Q1 revenue increased by 43% year-over-year to approximately $862.9 million, driven by strong direct-to-consumer (DTC) and wholesale sales [7][9]. - Direct-to-consumer sales rose by 42.4%, while wholesale sales grew by 38.6%, showcasing robust performance across all operating segments and regions [7][8]. - The core business of shoes grew by 40.5%, with apparel and accessories seeing significant growth of 93% and 97% respectively [8]. Margin and Profitability - Gross margin improved due to enhanced efficiency and a favorable selling environment, although earnings were down compared to the previous year due to foreign exchange shifts [9]. - Despite the earnings contraction, the company maintains profitability, a healthy balance sheet, and rising equity [9]. Future Guidance - ON Holdings raised its growth forecast for Q2 from at least 27% to 28%, with potential for further increases later in the year [10]. - Executives expressed a cautious outlook on profit, anticipating expansion relative to Q1 results, with expectations of sustaining double-digit top-line growth through the end of the decade [11]. Market Sentiment and Analyst Ratings - The current 12-month stock price forecast is $58.18, indicating a 1.34% upside, with a consensus rating of Buy based on 23 analyst ratings [13]. - Short interest remains elevated at nearly 6%, but has decreased from its peak, suggesting potential for a short-covering rally [14]. - Analysts had previously reduced price targets, but sentiment may shift positively following the earnings results, potentially leading to new all-time highs [15].

Group 1 - The U.S.-China trade negotiations have positively impacted the markets, leading to a sharp rally as if tariffs were never announced, with the S&P 500 now in flat territory for the year [1] - Valuation multiples in the market are currently very stretched despite the ongoing presence of economic uncertainties [1] Group 2 - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in covering technology companies and has been involved with seed-round startups, providing insights into current industry themes [1] - He has been a contributor to Seeking Alpha since 2017 and has been quoted in various web publications, with his articles reaching popular trading apps like Robinhood [1]

Core Insights - The sports footwear and apparel industry demonstrates resilience amid a sluggish global economic recovery and differentiated consumer demand, outperforming other sectors [1][2] - The analysis includes 19 brands/groups, primarily publicly listed companies, with revenue data for the 2024 calendar year, adjusted for fiscal year discrepancies and currency fluctuations [1][2] Global Market Overview - Total global revenue for the 18 brands/groups in 2024 is approximately $183.61 billion, reflecting a 3.78% increase from 2023 [8] - Nike and Adidas remain the dominant players, while Lululemon has surged to third place, surpassing Puma and VF Corporation [6][7] - The industry structure remains stable, with a leading tier of Nike and Adidas, followed by a growing middle tier including Decathlon, Anta, VF, and Lululemon [7][8] Chinese Market Insights - The total revenue for the Chinese market is estimated at around $37 billion for 2024, with an 8.8% year-over-year growth, outpacing global growth [14] - Anta Group leads the Chinese market, with significant contributions from its multi-brand strategy, while Nike retains the top position for single-brand revenue [14][15] - The competitive landscape in China features intense rivalry among brands like Anta, Li Ning, Adidas, and FILA, with Puma also showing growth [14][15] Growth Drivers - Running remains the highest growth segment in the sports footwear and apparel industry, with brands like HOKA and On experiencing significant revenue increases [15][16] - Outdoor brands, particularly those appealing to the middle class, are also thriving, driven by a shift in consumer identity and preferences [16] Future Considerations - The industry faces challenges related to brand positioning in either stock or incremental competition, necessitating strategic decisions on growth potential and market dynamics [17] - Established brands are undergoing transformations while new entrants must navigate consumer expectations and market integration [17]