Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of thorough research and understanding of businesses before making investment decisions [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Company Insights - The author has a long position in ONON and DECK, indicating a positive outlook on these companies [2] - The author does not own shares in NKE and has no plans to transact in the near future, suggesting a cautious approach towards this company [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - The article highlights the need for individual investors to conduct their own due diligence before making financial decisions [3][4] - It mentions that past performance is not indicative of future results, which is a critical consideration for investors in the industry [4]

Company Overview - On Holding (ONON) closed at $51.21, down 1.65% from the previous trading session, underperforming the S&P 500, which lost 0.43% [1] - The stock has decreased by 11.08% over the past month, contrasting with the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 5.51% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.6% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The earnings report for On Holding is anticipated on March 4, 2025, with an expected EPS of $0.20, representing a 433.33% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is projected to be $666.44 million, reflecting a 32.05% rise from the equivalent quarter last year [2] Analyst Estimates - Recent modifications to analyst estimates for On Holding indicate evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting analysts' confidence in the company's performance [3] - The Zacks Rank system, which assesses estimate changes, currently ranks On Holding at 2 (Buy), with a 1.38% increase in the consensus EPS estimate over the past month [5] Valuation Metrics - On Holding has a Forward P/E ratio of 45.98, which is significantly higher than the industry's average Forward P/E of 15.01 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.79, compared to the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry's average PEG ratio of 1.16 [7] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 67, placing it in the top 27% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Company Overview - On Holding AG (NYSE: ONON) went public on September 15th, 2021, with an opening price of $35.40 [1] Analyst Profile - Mr. Mavroudis is a professional portfolio manager with expertise in institutional and private portfolios, focusing on risk management and in-depth financial market analysis [2] - He has successfully navigated major crises, including the COVID-19 pandemic, and has published three books on investments [2] - Mr. Mavroudis holds multiple degrees and certifications, including an MSc in Financial and Banking Management and is a certified portfolio manager [2]

Company Performance - On Holding (ONON) closed at $59.04, marking a +1.2% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.39% [1] - The stock has increased by 5.54% over the past month, which is below the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 8.29% but above the S&P 500's gain of 1.7% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The company is expected to report an EPS of $0.20, reflecting a significant increase of 433.33% from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is forecasted to be $666.44 million, indicating a growth of 32.05% compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year [2] Analyst Estimates - Recent changes to analyst estimates for On Holding are crucial as they reflect near-term business trends and analysts' confidence in the company's performance [3] - Positive revisions in estimates are correlated with stock price performance, suggesting potential upward movement [4] Zacks Rank and Valuation - On Holding currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), with the consensus EPS estimate moving 1.38% higher over the last 30 days [5] - The company has a Forward P/E ratio of 51.57, which is a premium compared to the industry average of 15.87 [6] - The PEG ratio for On Holding is 0.89, while the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry has an average PEG ratio of 1.26 [6] Industry Overview - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 70, placing it in the top 28% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Viewpoint - On Holding (ONON) has experienced a downtrend recently, losing 6.2% over the past week, but a hammer chart pattern suggests a potential trend reversal as buying interest may be emerging to counteract selling pressure [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The hammer chart pattern indicates a possible bottoming out, where the stock opens lower, makes a new low, but then finds support and closes near its opening price, suggesting that bears may be losing control [3][4]. - Hammer candles can appear on various timeframes and are utilized by both short-term and long-term investors, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [4]. Fundamental Analysis - Recent upward revisions in earnings estimates for ONON serve as a bullish indicator, correlating strongly with near-term stock price movements [6]. - Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for ONON has increased by 1.4%, indicating that analysts expect better earnings than previously predicted [7]. - ONON holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks, which historically outperform the market [8].

Company Performance - On Holding (ONON) closed at $63.62, with a daily increase of +0.92%, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.53% [1] - The stock has appreciated by 15.1% over the past month, significantly exceeding the Retail-Wholesale sector's growth of 5.57% and the S&P 500's increase of 1.24% [1] Upcoming Financial Results - The company is expected to report an EPS of $0.20, reflecting a substantial increase of 433.33% year-over-year [2] - Revenue is forecasted to reach $666.44 million, indicating a growth of 32.05% compared to the same quarter last year [2] Analyst Estimates and Market Sentiment - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates suggest a favorable outlook on the company's business health and profitability [3] - The Zacks Rank system indicates that estimate revisions correlate with near-term share price momentum, with ONON currently holding a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy) [4][5] Valuation Metrics - On Holding has a Forward P/E ratio of 55.73, which is significantly higher than the industry average of 16.07 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.97, compared to the industry average of 1.56, indicating a more favorable valuation relative to expected earnings growth [6] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is ranked 59 in the Zacks Industry Rank, placing it in the top 24% of over 250 industries [7] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1, highlighting the strength of the industry [7]

Group 1: On Holding - On Holding is gaining attention in the elite athleticwear market with its distinctive footwear and premium brand positioning targeting affluent consumers [3][5] - The company has expanded its product line to include activewear, with footwear remaining its core product, and recently introduced innovative LightSpray shoes [4][5] - On Holding reported a 33% year-over-year sales increase in Q3 2024, with direct-to-consumer sales growing by 50%, now accounting for 38.8% of total sales [5] - The company achieved a gross margin of 60.6% in Q3 2023, its highest since going public, and its stock has increased by 108% over the past year [6] Group 2: Toast - Toast operates as a fintech platform serving the restaurant industry, providing a comprehensive cloud-based solution for restaurant management [7][8] - The platform integrates various operational aspects, enhancing efficiency and decision-making through machine learning [8] - In Q3 2024, Toast added 7,000 new locations, a 28% year-over-year increase, and transitioned from a $59 million loss to a positive $35 million operating income [10] - The company holds approximately 13% market share in its category and is expanding through global growth and new features, with its stock up 125% over the past year [11]

Core Viewpoint - On Holding AG (ONON) is experiencing strong growth driven by its multi-channel strategy, particularly through its direct-to-consumer (DTC) channel, enhanced global brand awareness, and operational improvements [1][5]. Growth Drivers - The DTC channel has significantly outperformed the wholesale channel in 2024, with net sales increasing by 27.3% and 30.7% on a constant currency basis in the first nine months of 2024 [5]. - The DTC channel grew by 39% year over year and 43% on a constant currency basis, indicating strong brand momentum [5]. - The company achieved its highest gross profit margin since its IPO, reaching 60.6% in Q3 2024, an increase of 70 basis points year over year, primarily due to DTC growth and a focus on full-price sales [6]. - Strategic partnerships and a strong presence at events like the Paris Olympics have enhanced brand recognition, contributing to market share growth [7]. - New store openings in key locations, including New York City, Austin, Chicago, Milan, and Melbourne, have expanded the company's retail presence [8][9]. Challenges - The sportswear market is highly competitive, with established leaders dominating market share, posing challenges for ONON in gaining significant long-term market share [10]. - The company's marketing expenses increased by 33.6% year over year in the first nine months of 2024, raising concerns about the sustainability of sales growth from heavy marketing investments [11].

Group 1: Market Trends - Consumer discretionary stocks have experienced a surge in recent weeks due to increased risk-on behavior in equity markets [2] - On Holding (NYSE: ONON) has shown continued strength, indicating positive market sentiment towards this relatively new company [2] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The focus is on identifying potential winners early in their growth cycles through a combination of technical and fundamental analysis [3] - The investment strategy emphasizes efficient and profitable capital use, moving away from rigid buy-and-hold approaches [3]

The problem with amazing growth stocks is that when the market discovers them, enthusiastic investors can often converge on them quickly, sending the price through the roof. This doesn't lead to the steady stock appreciation that makes an investment worthwhile. Instead, it creates unnecessary volatility and a stock price that can undermine an otherwise healthy investment thesis.Prices need to be tied to some intrinsic value measure to make sense. That's why investors should stay away from growth stocks with ...