Core Insights - On Holding AG is set to release its third-quarter earnings results on November 12, with analysts expecting earnings of 27 cents per share, an increase from 16 cents per share in the same period last year [1] - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenue is $763.84 million, up from $635.8 million a year earlier [1] Group 1: Earnings Expectations - Analysts anticipate a significant increase in earnings per share from 16 cents to 27 cents year-over-year [1] - Revenue expectations show a growth from $635.8 million to $763.84 million, indicating strong performance [1] Group 2: Recent Performance - On Holding reported better-than-expected second-quarter sales results, contributing to a 0.6% increase in share price, closing at $35.18 [2] Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Evercore ISI Group analyst Michael Binetti maintained an Outperform rating but reduced the price target from $68 to $50 [4] - Raymond James analyst Rick Patel also maintained an Outperform rating while lowering the price target from $66 to $55 [4] - TD Cowen analyst John Kernan kept a Buy rating and cut the price target from $63 to $55 [4] - UBS analyst Jay Sole maintained a Buy rating and raised the price target from $75 to $79 [4] - Morgan Stanley analyst Alex Straton maintained an Overweight rating and increased the price target from $62 to $65 [4]

Performance Overview - Baron Focused Growth Fund delivered a gain of 4.83% in Q3, underperforming the Russell 2500 Growth Index, which increased by 10.73% [3][6] - Underperformance was attributed to concerns about economic growth affecting Consumer Discretionary stocks and increased competition impacting valuations of investments like On Holding AG and FactSet Research Systems Inc. [3][15] Portfolio Insights - Despite recent underperformance, portfolio companies are generating strong revenue growth and maintaining robust balance sheets, allowing for growth investments, strategic acquisitions, or shareholder returns [4][10] - The fund managers are actively investing new capital, believing valuations remain compelling, particularly in small- and mid-cap stocks trading at discounts to large-cap peers [5][10] Long-term Performance - The Fund has outperformed its benchmark over the past 3, 5, and 10 years, generating significant excess returns with lower market risk [6][11] - Since inception, the Fund has achieved an annualized return of 13.84%, compared to 8.37% for the benchmark [12] Investment Strategy - The portfolio is constructed to balance disruptive growth companies with steadier, mature companies, aiming for strong risk-adjusted returns [7][36] - The Fund is diversified across sectors, with a significant focus on Consumer Discretionary, and has no exposure to Energy, Materials, Consumer Staples, or Utilities [38] Key Contributors and Detractors - Top contributors included Tesla, which rose 40.0%, and Shopify, which increased by 28.8%, both benefiting from strong market positions and growth prospects [22][24] - Key detractors included FactSet, which declined 35.8%, and On Holding, which fell 18.4%, primarily due to competitive pressures and market concerns [17][19] Company-Specific Insights - FactSet continues to generate strong results despite AI-related fears, indicating a robust business model and market position [17][35] - On Holding is expected to grow revenue at a CAGR of over 20% in the coming years, supported by its premium brand positioning in the global sportswear market [19][33] - Vail Resorts is refining its marketing strategy to address concerns about visitation levels and is expected to improve pass sales through strategic pricing adjustments [21] Sector Analysis - The Fund's investments in disruptive growth companies represent 43.1% of net assets, with a focus on firms like Tesla and SpaceX, which have large addressable markets and strong growth potential [40] - Core growth investments, such as IDEXX Laboratories and CoStar Group, are expected to generate steady returns through ongoing business investments and shareholder returns [42] Financials and Real Assets - Financials investments account for 15.2% of the Fund's net assets, focusing on companies with strong recurring revenue models [44] - Real asset companies, such as Vail Resorts and Choice Hotels, are seen as having significant brand equity and pricing power, contributing to the Fund's overall strategy [43]

Core Insights - The upcoming week will feature earnings reports from several notable companies, including Oklo, Cisco, Tencent, and On Holding [1] - The scheduled releases of consumer and producer price indexes have been affected by the government shutdown [1]

Company Performance - On Holding (ONON) ended the recent trading session at $35.51, showing a -1.58% change from the previous day's closing price, which lagged behind the S&P 500's daily loss of 1.12% [1] - Over the past month, shares of On Holding have depreciated by 17.29%, underperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 1.86% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.26% [1] Upcoming Earnings Report - On Holding is scheduled to release its earnings on November 12, 2025, with projected earnings of $0.34 per share, representing year-over-year growth of 100% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is projecting net sales of $939.02 million, up 27.81% from the year-ago period [2] Annual Forecasts - For the entire year, the Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $0.76 per share and revenue of $3.64 billion, indicating changes of -30.91% and +38.22%, respectively, compared to the previous year [3] Analyst Forecast Revisions - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for On Holding are important as they reflect shifting dynamics of short-term business patterns, with positive revisions indicating analysts' confidence in business performance and profit potential [4] Zacks Rank and Valuation - On Holding currently has a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remaining steady over the past month [6] - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 47.38, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 18.26 [7] - On Holding has a PEG ratio of 2.25, which is comparable to the industry average PEG ratio of 2.25 [7] Industry Overview - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, has a current Zacks Industry Rank of 53, placing it in the top 22% of all industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Core Viewpoint - James Anderson has updated his holdings in MyndTec Inc., indicating a significant increase in ownership following the completion of the seventh tranche of a private placement [1][6]. Summary by Sections Ownership Update - As of November 6, 2025, following the seventh tranche, the Investor owns 11,114,926 Common Shares and 5,056,733 Warrants, representing approximately 47.00% of the outstanding Common Shares on a partially diluted basis [6]. - Prior to the seventh tranche, the Investor owned 10,852,899 Common Shares and 4,925,719 Warrants, which was about 46.39% of the outstanding Common Shares [3]. Private Placement Details - The seventh tranche of the private placement involved the issuance of 262,027 Units at a price of $0.20 per Unit, with each Unit consisting of one Common Share and one-half Warrant [2]. - Each whole Warrant is exercisable to acquire one Common Share at an exercise price of $0.24 for a period of 36 months following the closing date [2]. Historical Ownership Changes - Prior to the sixth tranche, the Investor held 10,589,471 Common Shares and 4,794,005 Warrants, representing approximately 45.76% of the outstanding Common Shares [4]. - Before the fifth tranche, the Investor owned 10,067,365 Common Shares and 4,532,952 Warrants, which accounted for approximately 44.47% of the outstanding Common Shares [5]. Transaction Purpose - The transaction was conducted in the ordinary course of business for investment purposes and not intended to exert control over MyndTec Inc. The Investor may acquire additional shares or warrants or dispose of existing holdings in the future [7].

Core Insights - Baron Focused Growth Fund reported a 4.83% appreciation in Q3 2025, underperforming the Russell 2500 Growth Index's 10.73% gain due to economic growth slowdown concerns affecting Consumer Discretionary stocks [1] - Competitive pressures have negatively impacted the valuations of some holdings within the fund [1] Company Analysis: On Holding AG (NYSE:ONON) - On Holding AG experienced a one-month return of -16.67% and a 52-week loss of 28.38%, closing at $36.08 with a market capitalization of $11.782 billion on November 5, 2025 [2] - Despite macroeconomic uncertainties and rising competition, On Holding AG reported a 38% revenue increase and raised its revenue and profitability expectations for the year, indicating strong quarterly results [3] - The company is expected to gain market share in the global sportswear segment due to its premium brand positioning and innovative products, with shares considered undervalued at current levels [3] Hedge Fund Interest - On Holding AG was held by 42 hedge fund portfolios at the end of Q2 2025, a decrease from 53 in the previous quarter, indicating a decline in popularity among hedge funds [4] - While On Holding AG shows potential, certain AI stocks are viewed as offering greater upside potential and lower downside risk [4]

Core Insights - On Holding AG (NYSE:ONON) has seen a surge in stock price following updates from analysts regarding its revenue potential and market positioning [1][3] Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Goldman Sachs lowered its price target for On Holding AG to $50 from $57 while maintaining a Neutral rating, suggesting that the company's direct-to-consumer (DTC) model may allow for faster revenue growth compared to competitors like Nike and Adidas [1] - Raymond James analyst Rick Patel reduced the price target to $55 from $66 but set an Outperform rating, indicating optimism about rising revenue estimates in the Softlines and Digital Commerce sectors as consumer momentum improves [3] Group 2: Revenue Estimates and Market Conditions - Goldman Sachs expressed concerns about a long-term revenue estimate of CHF19 billion, citing a lack of exposure to team sports as a limiting factor [2] - The company is facing tariff risks, particularly from potential higher tariffs on imports from China, which could pressure margins despite some relief from foreign exchange shifts [4] Group 3: Company Overview - On Holding AG specializes in the development and distribution of sports products, including apparel, footwear, and accessories, with a global sales strategy that includes distributors, independent retailers, and an online presence [4]

Summary of China Consumer Pulse Q3 2025 Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Consumer Market - **Key Sectors Analyzed**: Alcohol, Apparel, Beauty, Travel, Luxury Goods, Autos Core Insights 1. **Mixed Consumer Sentiment**: Chinese consumer sentiment remains mixed, with a notable divergence in spending patterns across sectors [2][29][30] 2. **Experiential Spending Resilience**: Experiential categories such as restaurants (+24% YoY) and travel (+16% YoY) show resilience, indicating a shift towards experiences over goods [2][35] 3. **Premium Demand Recovery**: Onshore luxury spending has improved, with premium auto sales stabilizing and showing positive year-over-year growth in September, ending a 19-month decline [2][30] 4. **Digital Channels Outperform**: Digital retail channels continue to outperform traditional retail, although there are signs of weakness in specific segments like beauty e-commerce, which saw a -3% decline [2][29][30] 5. **GDP and Retail Growth Slowdown**: China's Q3 GDP growth slowed to 4.8% YoY, with retail growth easing to 2.1%, attributed to fading consumer incentives and macroeconomic uncertainties [3][29] 6. **Deflationary Trends**: Deflationary pressures persist across travel and hotel pricing, with moderate price declines observed [12][29] Sector-Specific Insights Premium Beverages - **Weak Demand**: Ultra-premium Baijiu prices continued to slide in Q3 due to weak demand, particularly around the Mid-Autumn Festival [4][30] Apparel and Sportswear - **Mixed Performance**: The apparel market is growing online but remains negative offline, with brands like Adidas showing over 20% growth while Nike faces challenges [5][22] Home Appliances - **Sector Contraction**: The home appliance sector contracted by 7% in Q3, with significant declines in both domestic and overseas exports [7][31] Luxury Goods - **Signs of Improvement**: Early signs of recovery in the luxury market, with brands like Hermès and Louis Vuitton performing well, while Kering struggles [8][9][30] Automotive - **Sales Growth Slowdown**: Auto sales growth slowed to +2.5% YoY in Q3, with EV sales decelerating to +12.5% YoY. However, EV penetration reached 55.1% [10][16][17] Hotels - **RevPAR Declines**: Domestic hotel RevPAR continues to decline, with luxury hotels being the only segment not experiencing persistent declines [10][23] Travel - **Resilient Growth**: The travel industry showed stable positive growth of 16% during the National Day Golden Week, reflecting ongoing domestic travel trends [11][12] Cosmetics - **Moderate Growth**: The cosmetics sector saw a +6.5% YoY increase in gross merchandise value, marking an improvement from previous quarters [13][29] Additional Considerations - **Cautious Consumer Behavior**: The macroeconomic environment is expected to lead to cautious, value-driven consumer behavior, highlighting the uneven recovery across sectors [3][32] - **Investment Implications**: The outlook for various sectors remains cautious, with potential growth in EVs and premium segments, while traditional sectors face challenges [16][17][22][23]

Core Insights - On Holding AG (ONON) experienced a significant stock price increase of 250% over two years, driven primarily by retail interest rather than institutional investment [1][2] - The company has successfully partnered with popular Gen Z figures, enhancing its brand appeal among younger consumers [3] - Social media's influence on stock valuations is highlighted, with companies like Tesla and fashion brands relying heavily on their popularity among young consumers [4] Company Analysis: On Holding AG - Shares of On Holding AG rose from $23 in January 2023 to over $60, reflecting a 250% return [1] - Revenue growth has been slowing in percentage terms despite the stock price surge [1] - Institutional investors have largely avoided ONON, as indicated by a low "D" grade from Louis Navellier's Stock Grader [2] Company Analysis: Dollar General Corp. - Dollar General Corp. (DG) has a high Social Heat Score of 91.5, indicating strong popularity, especially among rural customers [10] - The average customer spends $522 annually at Dollar General, nearly double that of Dollar Tree [10] - The company has solid fundamentals with operating margins at 4.2%, comparable to Walmart's [11] - Dollar General is rated "A" under Louis' Stock Grader, suggesting potential for shares to return to previous highs around $250 [12] Company Analysis: Advance Auto Parts Inc. - Advance Auto Parts Inc. (AAP) is undergoing a turnaround, with signs of improved profitability and a projected net income increase of 58% to $166 million next year [14] - The company's Social Heat Score is at 74, indicating a positive consumer perception [15] - Shares are currently trading at 14X 2027 earnings, suggesting potential for significant price appreciation from around $55 to the $100 range [16] Company Analysis: Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. - Alibaba's Qwen3 model is competitive with leading chatbots, ranking fourth in "Humanity's Last Exam" [19] - The company has seen positive developments, including rising profit margins and successful tech innovations [20] - Alibaba scores an "A" in Louis' Stock Grader and has an 86 Social Heat Score, indicating strong investor interest [21] Market Trends - Social media's fragmented nature poses challenges for investors trying to gauge company popularity [5] - The Social Heat Score system developed by TradeSmith aggregates data to assess company popularity effectively [6][7] - The system can also identify potential "bear traps," helping investors avoid stocks that may continue to decline [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trading status of three stocks—MercadoLibre, Rocket Companies, and On Holding—highlighting their positions in relation to their 52-week highs and the implications for investors in a bear market context [1][2]. Group 1: MercadoLibre Inc. (MELI) - MercadoLibre is currently trading at $2,161.11, which is 79% of its 52-week high of $2,645.22, indicating potential for bullish momentum [3][4]. - The stock has shown a year-to-date performance of 23.6%, with a decline in short interest by 13.8%, suggesting a possible shift in market sentiment [3][4]. - The consensus price target for MercadoLibre is $2,810.88, representing a 33.7% upside from the current price, with some analysts projecting even higher targets [5][6]. Group 2: Rocket Companies Inc. (RKT) - Rocket Companies is trading at $17.89, which is 76% of its 52-week high of $22.56, reflecting bearish market conditions influenced by housing market indicators [8][9]. - The consensus price target for Rocket is $17.12, but some analysts predict a potential rise to $25 per share, indicating a significant upside opportunity [9][10]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 is projected to be 12 cents, a substantial increase from the current 4 cents, suggesting potential undervaluation [11]. Group 3: On Holding (ONON) - On Holding is trading at $41.72, which is 65% of its 52-week high of $64.05, primarily affected by tariff concerns related to its exposure to China [14][15]. - The consensus price target for On Holding is $63.65, indicating a potential upside of 53.5%, supported by a high price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 92.2x [15][16]. - The market's confidence in On Holding's brand strength and growth trajectory could lead to a closing of the valuation gap if strong Q4 results are delivered [16].