Core Insights - The 200-day moving average is a crucial tool for investors to identify long-term trends, manage risk, and find high-probability buy areas [2][10] - The Nasdaq 100 Index ETF (QQQ) demonstrated the effectiveness of the 200-day moving average, trending below it for a year before regaining it in early 2023, leading to a near doubling of the index [3] Company Summaries - **On Holding (ONON)**: Recognized as an emerging leader in the running shoe market, ONON has shown consistent double-digit revenue growth, driven by its premium brand image, direct-to-consumer strategy, and global expansion. The company exceeded Zacks Consensus Estimates by 90% in the last quarter [4][6] - **Amazon (AMZN)**: A dominant player in the US e-commerce market, Amazon's logistics network remains unmatched. The company also leads in cloud services through AWS and is expanding into content and generative AI [6][7] - **MicroStrategy (MSTR)**: As the first public company to add Bitcoin to its balance sheet, MSTR serves as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy. The stock has shown significant volatility but has performed well when bought off the 200-day moving average, with notable price increases from ~$30 to $200 and then to over $500 within a year [7][9]

Company Overview - On is a Swiss-based athletic wear company competing in the premium space with a distinctive Cloud-tech footwear designed for comfort [2] - The brand is establishing a strong global presence and has received extremely positive reception, indicating strong customer loyalty [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, On's sales increased by 40% year over year, driven by a 48% increase in direct-to-consumer sales [3] - Shoe sales grew by 39%, while apparel and accessories saw even higher growth rates of 83% and 86% respectively [3] - The company achieved a gross margin of 62.1%, up from 60.4% the previous year, and net income increased by 435% in the quarter [4] Market Position and Growth Outlook - Management is guiding for a 27% sales increase in 2025, with an expected gross margin of 60.5% for the full year [4] - Despite a deceleration in growth due to inflationary pressures, On has significant opportunities for brand establishment and customer loyalty [5] - The stock, while previously expensive, is now considered more attractive at its current price, trading at a forward one-year P/E ratio of 32 [6] Investment Perspective - There is potential for On to achieve steady double-digit growth for several years, presenting a buying opportunity on the recent dip [7]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, the company achieved a net sales of CHF 2.32 billion, reflecting a strong constant currency growth rate of over 33% [11][52] - The gross profit margin reached 60.6%, while the adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.7%, indicating a solid path towards midterm targets [12][52] - For Q4, net sales grew by 35.7% on a reported basis, reaching CHF 606.6 million, with a D2C share of 48.8% [55][56] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The top three running franchises, Cloudmonster, Cloudsurfer, and Cloudrunner, experienced growth between 60% and 140% in 2024 [44] - Apparel net sales exceeded CHF 100 million, with a constant currency growth rate of 51% [46][47] - In Q4, apparel sales grew by 77.5%, reaching CHF 32.6 million, contributing to over 5% of net sales [67] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales in the Americas grew by 28.1% in Q4, with Brazil more than doubling its net sales compared to the prior year [58][59] - EMEA saw net sales of CHF 147.4 million in Q4, growing by 31% year-over-year, supported by retail stores in Paris and Milan [60] - APAC achieved a reported growth rate of 117.5% in Q4, with Japan and China being key drivers [61] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become the most premium global sportswear brand, targeting a 26% net sales CAGR and a gross profit margin above 60% by 2026 [10] - Strategic partnerships with celebrities and athletes are central to brand building, enhancing visibility and consumer engagement [19][20] - The company plans to expand its retail presence, launching 19 new stores in iconic locations in 2024 [31][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in exceeding growth expectations, with a strong start to 2025 anticipated [39][81] - The company is cautious about macroeconomic conditions but remains optimistic based on strong preorders and brand momentum [97][98] - The focus will be on operational excellence and investments in infrastructure to support long-term growth [80][130] Other Important Information - The company achieved an operating cash flow of CHF 510.6 million, more than doubling year-over-year, with a total cash balance of CHF 924.3 million at year-end [74] - The company is committed to sustainability and plans to publish an impact progress report soon [51] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Cloud 6's contribution to growth in 2025 - Management highlighted that Cloud has become an iconic staple resonating with younger consumers, with a classic campaign set to launch soon [89] Question: Guidance on sales growth by region and consumer environment in the U.S. - Management expects strong growth in Q1, with a focus on D2C and wholesale channels, while remaining prudent due to macroeconomic uncertainties [92][96] Question: Strategies for increasing apparel penetration and distribution - The company aims to elevate apparel's share of revenue to 10%, with a strong correlation between retail presence and apparel success [120] Question: Outlook on operational efficiencies and long-term objectives - Management plans to leverage G&A efficiencies and continue high marketing investments to drive growth and brand awareness [129][131]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2024, the company achieved a net sales of CHF 2.32 billion, reflecting a constant currency growth rate of over 33% [11][52] - The gross profit margin reached 60.6%, while the adjusted EBITDA margin was 16.7%, indicating strong profitability [52][71] - For Q4, net sales grew by 35.7% on a reported basis, reaching CHF 606.6 million, with a D2C share of 48.8% [55][56] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The top three running franchises, Cloudmonster, Cloudsurfer, and Cloudrunner, saw growth between 60% and 140% in 2024 [44] - Apparel net sales exceeded CHF 100 million, with a constant currency growth of 51% in 2024 [46][47] - In Q4, apparel sales grew by 77.5%, reaching CHF 32.6 million, contributing to over 5% of net sales [67] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales in the Americas grew by 28.1% in Q4, with Brazil more than doubling its net sales compared to the prior year [58][59] - EMEA net sales reached CHF 147.4 million in Q4, growing by 31% year-over-year [60] - APAC saw a reported growth rate of 117.5% in Q4, driven by strong performance in Japan and China [61] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to become the most premium global sportswear brand, targeting a 26% net sales CAGR and a gross profit margin above 60% by 2026 [10] - Strategic partnerships with celebrities and athletes are key to enhancing brand visibility and consumer engagement [19][20] - The company plans to expand its retail presence, having launched 19 new stores in iconic locations in 2024 [31][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in exceeding growth expectations, with a strong start to 2025 and a projected constant currency growth rate of at least 27% for the year [81][82] - The company is focused on operational excellence and sustainability, with plans to enhance production capabilities and automate warehouses [79][80] - Management acknowledged potential macroeconomic challenges but emphasized strong preorders and brand momentum [97][98] Other Important Information - The company reported a significant increase in cash flow, with total cash balance reaching CHF 924.3 million at the end of 2024 [74] - The company is committed to sustainability and plans to publish an impact progress report soon [51] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on Cloud 6's contribution to growth - Management highlighted that Cloud has become an iconic staple, resonating with younger consumers and is expected to be a significant contributor to growth in 2025 [88][90] Question: Guidance on sales growth by region - Management indicated strong momentum in Q1, expecting growth rates in the low to mid-30s, with a strong performance in both D2C and wholesale channels [95][96] Question: Strategies for younger consumer engagement - Management discussed the importance of partnerships and retail expansion in driving brand visibility among younger consumers [110][111] Question: Apparel growth expectations - Management expressed confidence in apparel reaching 10% of total revenue in the midterm, with strong correlations between retail presence and apparel success [120][121] Question: Long-term objectives tracking - Management noted that retail expansion and market access are crucial for achieving long-term targets, with a focus on increasing apparel share and D2C growth [132][135]

Core Insights - On Holding surpassed Wall Street's earnings and revenue expectations in Q4 2024, reporting adjusted EPS of 0.33 Swiss francs and revenue of 606.6 million Swiss francs [1][2] Financial Performance - Adjusted EPS for Q4 2024 was 0.33 Swiss francs, exceeding the estimate of 0.22 Swiss francs [2][3] - Revenue reached 606.6 million Swiss francs, a 35.7% increase from 447.1 million Swiss francs in Q4 2023, surpassing the estimate of 589.2 million Swiss francs [3][7] - Gross profit margin improved to 62.1%, up from 60.4% in Q4 2023 [3][6] - Net income was 89.5 million Swiss francs, a significant recovery from a loss of 26.8 million Swiss francs in Q4 2023 [3][7] Company Overview - On Holding, established in Zurich in 2010, is recognized for its innovative running shoes and high-performance sportswear, focusing on expanding its market reach through a diverse distribution network [4] - The company emphasizes innovation, frequently updating its product range with new technologies like LightSpray to differentiate itself in the competitive athletic wear market [5] Growth Segments - Direct-to-consumer sales surged by 43.4%, significantly contributing to the gross profit margin [6] - The wholesale segment also grew by 29.1%, indicating strong overall performance [7] - Apparel sales increased by 77.5% in Q4 2024, driven by successful product launches [7] Future Outlook - Management anticipates net sales growth of at least 27% in 2025, targeting 2.94 billion Swiss francs [8] - The company aims to maintain gross profit margins around 60.5% and an adjusted EBITDA margin between 17.0% and 17.5% [8] - On Holding plans to expand into emerging regions like Asia-Pacific, leveraging its brand development and consumer engagement strategies [9]

Company Performance - On Holding reported quarterly earnings of $0.38 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.20 per share, compared to a loss of $0.06 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of 90% [1] - The company posted revenues of $691.25 million for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.59%, and showing an increase from year-ago revenues of $504.69 million [2] - Over the last four quarters, On Holding has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times and topped consensus revenue estimates three times [2] Future Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.23 on revenues of $736.5 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $1.12 on revenues of $3.3 billion [7] - The estimate revisions trend for On Holding is currently favorable, leading to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for the stock, indicating expected outperformance in the near future [6] - The outlook for the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry, where On Holding operates, is currently in the top 26% of Zacks industries, suggesting a positive impact on stock performance [8] Market Comparison - On Holding shares have declined approximately 12.6% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with the S&P 500's decline of -0.5% [3] - Genesco, another company in the same industry, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $3.31 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +27.8%, with revenues projected at $780.43 million, up 5.6% from the year-ago quarter [9][10]

Market Presence and Sales - As of December 31, 2024, the company's products are available at approximately 10,500 retail stores across direct markets[39] - For the year ended December 31, 2024, 63.9% of sales were to customers in the Americas, 24.9% in EMEA, and 11.2% in Asia-Pacific regions[54] - Net sales through the wholesale channel represented 59.3% of total net sales for the year ended December 31, 2024[69] - The footwear category accounted for a significant majority of sales, with over 85 styles offered in 2024[49] - The company has expanded rapidly since its inception in 2010, with 19 retail stores as of December 31, 2024, including 9 in the Americas, 8 in Europe, and 2 in Asia Pacific[82] Brand Management and Marketing - The company anticipates challenges in maintaining and enhancing its premium brand image as it expands into new markets and product categories[38] - The effectiveness of grassroots marketing efforts and partnerships with premium brand ambassadors is crucial for future growth and brand visibility[43] - The company relies on a multi-channel strategy to increase brand recognition and customer engagement without compromising premium customer experience[50] - The company’s marketing strategy, including social media, has been crucial for customer acquisition and brand awareness[58] Consumer Behavior and Economic Factors - The company faces risks related to changes in consumer preferences, which could adversely affect sales and profitability[49] - Economic downturns and changes in consumer confidence could materially harm sales and profitability[71] - Consumer purchases of discretionary items, including premium footwear, apparel, and accessories, tend to decline during recessionary periods, impacting sales and financial condition[72] - The company faces risks from a decline in consumer retail spending, which could adversely affect sales and financial condition[70] Operational Challenges and Costs - The company has encountered increased operational costs due to higher customs, payroll, and other expenses during its expansion efforts[54] - The company must manage risks associated with third-party distribution and expand its product offerings to enhance customer experience[50] - The company is vulnerable to increased costs associated with athlete sponsorships and the need to maintain effective partnerships[45] - The company faces risks related to global trade, including potential changes in tax laws and trade policies that could impact financial condition and share price[73] Supply Chain and Manufacturing - Approximately 90% of the company's footwear products were produced in Vietnam in 2024, highlighting reliance on specific countries for manufacturing[107] - The company relies on third-party suppliers for fabrics and subcomponents, increasing the risk of supply disruption and cost inflation[112] - Supply chain disruptions, including geopolitical conflicts and natural disasters, could negatively impact the company's ability to meet customer demand and affect financial results[96] - The company is planning to expand its e-commerce platform to new geographies, which may incur additional costs and operational challenges[85] Technology and Innovation - The company relies on technical innovation and high-quality products to remain competitive in the market[61] - The company emphasizes technological innovation, relying on proprietary technologies such as CloudTec, Speedboard, and LightSpray to maintain competitive advantage[130] - The company must continue to invest in research and development to meet consumer expectations for innovative and sustainable products[62] - The company has limited experience with its LightSpray technology, and any failure to successfully develop and scale this technology could harm business performance[88] Financial and Compliance Risks - The company plans to primarily finance growth through cash from operations but may need to raise additional capital, which could be challenging due to market volatility and rising interest rates[179] - The company is subject to examination of its tax returns by authorities in multiple jurisdictions, which could result in material additional tax liabilities[201] - The company may incur significant legal, accounting, and compliance costs if it loses its foreign private issuer status, which would require adherence to U.S. domestic reporting requirements[220] - The company is classified as a "controlled company" under NYSE corporate governance rules, allowing it to rely on certain exemptions that may provide less protection to Class A ordinary shareholders[221] Cybersecurity and Data Privacy - Cybersecurity incidents could adversely affect the confidentiality and integrity of the company's IT systems, impacting operations and relationships[153] - The company has experienced a significant increase in the frequency and sophistication of cybersecurity incidents, necessitating robust cybersecurity measures and continuous monitoring[156] - The company is subject to various laws and regulations regarding data privacy and security, which are increasingly rigorous and may lead to government enforcement actions or litigation[163] - The company acknowledges the critical importance of implementing appropriate data security measures, including encryption protocols and regular audits, to mitigate risks[155] Governance and Shareholder Structure - The dual class structure of the company's shares allows the extended founder team to control approximately 57.7% of total combined voting power as of December 31, 2024, limiting shareholder influence[217] - The extended founder team holds approximately 15.7% of the economic interest, while executive officers and directors collectively own about 19.7% of the economic interest and 59.8% of total combined voting power as of December 31, 2024[217] - The company has never declared or paid any cash dividends and does not intend to do so in the foreseeable future, meaning returns on investment will depend on share price appreciation[226] - Future proposals for dividends will be at the discretion of the board of directors, considering business prospects and financial performance, and are subject to Swiss law limitations[227]

当跑步变成一种生活方式，运动鞋的技术创新也应该具有审美感知。 作者 | 贺哲馨 编辑 | 乔芊 当奥利弗·伯恩哈德（Olivier Bernhard）把脑海里理想运动鞋雏形想法告诉耐克（NIKE）和阿迪达斯 （Adidas）的时候，两者都拒绝了这个提议。 "他们的回复听起来像是，'如果不是在我们的厨房里烤出来的，就不可能有多好'。"这位退役职业运动员向彭 博社回忆，这是促使他自行开发品牌的最大动力。 后来流传的故事版本是，2010年某天，伯恩哈德和一位苏黎世工程设计师朋友把一双耐克鞋的底部刨掉，然后 将花园浇水管子剪成一节节黏在鞋底。他穿着它在后花园走来走去，感到鞋底带来的缓冲和反弹力度"棒极 了"，这双鞋就是On昂跑Cloudtech的雏形。 2024年，On昂跑的销售达到了25亿美元，在阿迪达斯这个数字是 250 亿美元，耐克是500 亿。这个年轻的瑞士 品牌在全球运动市场的份额有2%，但30%的增长足令任何一个对手都难以忽视。分析师在提到On昂跑的时候 都会忍不住强调它独特的"通心粉"鞋底， "走进任何一家footlocker，On昂跑的货架总是最引人注目。" 在运动鞋行业，技术创新往往并不都来自巨头。 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of thorough research and understanding of businesses before making investment decisions [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Company Insights - The author has a long position in ONON and DECK, indicating a positive outlook on these companies [2] - The author does not own shares in NKE and has no plans to transact in the near future, suggesting a cautious approach towards this company [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - The article highlights the need for individual investors to conduct their own due diligence before making financial decisions [3][4] - It mentions that past performance is not indicative of future results, which is a critical consideration for investors in the industry [4]

Company Overview - On Holding (ONON) closed at $51.21, down 1.65% from the previous trading session, underperforming the S&P 500, which lost 0.43% [1] - The stock has decreased by 11.08% over the past month, contrasting with the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 5.51% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.6% [1] Upcoming Earnings - The earnings report for On Holding is anticipated on March 4, 2025, with an expected EPS of $0.20, representing a 433.33% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is projected to be $666.44 million, reflecting a 32.05% rise from the equivalent quarter last year [2] Analyst Estimates - Recent modifications to analyst estimates for On Holding indicate evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions suggesting analysts' confidence in the company's performance [3] - The Zacks Rank system, which assesses estimate changes, currently ranks On Holding at 2 (Buy), with a 1.38% increase in the consensus EPS estimate over the past month [5] Valuation Metrics - On Holding has a Forward P/E ratio of 45.98, which is significantly higher than the industry's average Forward P/E of 15.01 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.79, compared to the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry's average PEG ratio of 1.16 [7] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 67, placing it in the top 27% of over 250 industries [8] - Research indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]