As the market stays near its all-time highs, understanding and breaking down the fundamental data becomes more important than ever for investors. With this in mind, there are typically two sets of data that truly drive the view and performance of the different sectors of the economy: first, the business data, and then the consumer data to balance the supply and demand equation. Focusing on the consumer, one of the most widely followed indicators just turned green unexpectedly, driving interest and potential ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the implementation of consumption-boosting initiatives in China, focusing on the establishment of flagship stores and the introduction of international and local brands to stimulate economic growth [1][2][3] - The "first store economy" is highlighted as a new consumption model that integrates urban renewal and consumption upgrades, with significant contributions to local economies [3][5] - Beijing has seen a surge in the opening of first stores, with 400 new stores established in the first five months of the year, and a total of 2,372 first stores expected by the end of 2024 [3][2] Group 2 - Shanghai is attracting international sports brands to set up their first stores, enhancing consumer experience through innovative service offerings like professional fitness assessments [5][6] - The city has implemented supportive policies to streamline the process for first stores, including financial incentives for high-level stores, resulting in 173 new stores in the first quarter of 2025 [6][7] - Chongqing is focusing on linking first stores with the night economy, targeting young consumers and introducing over 140 new stores by mid-2025 [7][8] Group 3 - The articles discuss the importance of creating new consumption scenarios and fostering a complete ecosystem for brand development, emphasizing the need for policies that support long-term operations of first stores [8] - The integration of diverse brands and innovative retail concepts is seen as a way to attract consumers and enhance the vibrancy of commercial districts [2][4] - The overall trend indicates a growing competition among cities to attract first stores, which is viewed as a vital component of economic revitalization [1][3]

Company Performance - On Holding (ONON) ended the recent trading session at $50.76, showing a +1.62% change from the previous day's closing price, outperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.4% [1] - Shares of On Holding had lost 3.18% in the past month, while the Retail-Wholesale sector gained 4.05% and the S&P 500 gained 4.61% during the same period [1] Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report for On Holding is anticipated to show an EPS of $0.24, representing a 50% increase compared to the same quarter of the previous year [2] - Revenue is expected to be $843.95 million, indicating a 34.46% increase compared to the year-ago quarter [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $1.12 per share and revenue at $3.5 billion, reflecting changes of +1.82% and +32.75% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent analyst estimate revisions suggest confidence in On Holding's business performance and profit potential [3] Valuation Metrics - On Holding is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 44.8, which is a premium compared to its industry's Forward P/E of 17.54 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.18, while the average PEG ratio for the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is 1.97 [6] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 212, placing it in the bottom 15% of all industries [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Viewpoint - On Holding (ONON) is experiencing volatility, currently trading at $49.94, down 3.2% in the afternoon, with an 8.5% year-to-date deficit, but historical patterns suggest potential for recovery [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Since mid-June, ONON has faced resistance at $55, limiting breakout attempts and contributing to its year-to-date underperformance [1] - Historical data indicates that after similar market conditions, ONON has increased in value 75% of the time, averaging a 10.6% gain one month later [2] Group 2: Technical Indicators - ONON is currently within one standard deviation of the 80-day moving average, having spent 80% of the past two months above this average [2] - The stock's recent trading behavior suggests a potential upward movement if the historical trend continues [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Options traders exhibit extreme bearish sentiment, with a put/call open interest ratio of 1.66, placing it in the 99th percentile of the past year [4] - A reversal of this bearish sentiment could provide additional support for ONON's stock price [4]

Core Viewpoint - On Holding (ONON) shares have shown a slight increase of 0.3% over the past four weeks, closing at $51.64, with a potential upside indicated by Wall Street analysts' price targets suggesting a mean estimate of $64.64, representing a 25.2% upside [1][11]. Price Targets and Analyst Estimates - The mean estimate consists of 22 short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $6.45, indicating variability among analysts; the lowest estimate is $50.00 (3.2% decline), while the highest is $75.00 (45.2% increase) [2][9]. - A low standard deviation among price targets suggests a strong agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement direction, which can serve as a starting point for further research [9][10]. Earnings Estimates and Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have shown increasing optimism about ONON's earnings prospects, as evidenced by a strong consensus in revising EPS estimates higher, which correlates with potential stock price increases [11][12]. - Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has risen by 1.6%, with two estimates moving higher and one lower [12]. - ONON holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, indicating a strong potential upside [13]. Conclusion on Price Movement - While the consensus price target may not be a reliable predictor of the extent of ONON's gains, the implied direction of price movement appears to be a useful guide for investors [14].

Company Performance - On Holding (ONON) closed at $50.36, down 5.36% from the previous trading session, underperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.06% [1] - Over the past month, shares of On Holding gained 0.26%, lagging behind the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 5.04% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.88% [1] Upcoming Earnings - On Holding is projected to report earnings of $0.24 per share, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 50% [2] - Revenue is estimated at $838.51 million, up 33.59% from the prior-year quarter [2] Full Year Estimates - Analysts expect earnings of $1.13 per share and revenue of $3.48 billion for the full year, marking changes of +2.73% and +32% respectively from last year [3] Analyst Forecasts - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for On Holding are important as they indicate shifting business dynamics and a favorable outlook on business health and profitability [4] Zacks Rank and Valuation - On Holding currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate moving 1.56% higher over the past month [6] - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 47.19, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 17.74 [6] PEG Ratio - On Holding has a PEG ratio of 2.29, compared to the average PEG ratio of 2.04 for Retail - Apparel and Shoes stocks [7] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector and currently has a Zacks Industry Rank of 194, placing it in the bottom 22% of all industries [8]

Group 1 - The majority of earnings growth in global markets over the past decade has been concentrated in a few US-based megacap technology companies [1] - Most market indices have become highly concentrated due to the dominance of these technology companies [1] - The Cyclical Investor's Club focuses on All-Weather-Growth strategies, aiming to balance sensitivity to economic cycles while pursuing long-term growth [1] Group 2 - The Cyclical Investor's Club shares unique investing strategies that help reduce the risk of losses without compromising medium and long-term portfolio returns [1]

Innovation & Technology - On introduces LightSpray, a new automated manufacturing technique for sneaker uppers, reducing production time significantly [1][2] - The LightSpray technology uses a polymer sprayed onto a foot mold by a robot, creating a seamless shoe without glue or laces [4] - LightSpray significantly reduces labor needed, enabling production closer to consumers [3] Sustainability & Efficiency - On claims LightSpray reduces carbon emissions by approximately 75% compared to conventional shoe making [7] - Traditional shoe production involves around 200 steps, while On aims to reduce this to a handful with LightSpray [4] Market & Production - On's net sales have grown in 11 out of the past 13 quarters since going public in 2021, gaining ground on competitors [2] - The Cloud Boom Strike LZ, On's first shoe featuring LightSpray, weighs 170g (approximately a third of a pound) [5] - On aims to scale LightSpray production from thousands to millions of pairs and expand its application to other wearables [8] Business Expansion - On opened its first LightSpray factory in Zurich and is considering expanding production to countries like the US [3][7][8] - Early LightSpray models have been worn by athletes like Helen Obree, who won the Boston Marathon in 2020 [6]

Company Performance - On Holding (ONON) closed at $52.60, reflecting a -3.24% change from the previous day, which is less than the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.07% [1] - Prior to the latest trading session, shares had decreased by 3.72%, underperforming the Retail-Wholesale sector's gain of 1.87% and the S&P 500's gain of 3.94% [1] Upcoming Financial Results - The company is expected to report an EPS of $0.24, representing a 50% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is anticipated to reach $836.96 million, indicating a 33.35% increase compared to the prior year [2] Fiscal Year Projections - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $1.12 per share and revenue at $3.46 billion, reflecting changes of +1.82% and +31.3% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent analyst estimate revisions suggest a positive outlook for the company's near-term business trends [3] Valuation Metrics - On Holding is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 48.37, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 17.48 [6] - The company has a PEG ratio of 2.36, compared to the Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry average PEG ratio of 1.91 [7] Industry Context - The Retail - Apparel and Shoes industry is part of the Retail-Wholesale sector and holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 209, placing it in the bottom 16% of over 250 industries [8] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [8]

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market cycle is heavily influenced by the popularity of artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors, while the retail sector, particularly On Holding, presents significant investment opportunities due to its recent performance and growth potential [2][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) has experienced a rally of up to 24% over the past quarter, indicating bullish momentum in the retail sector [2]. - On Holding's stock trades at approximately 85% of its 52-week high, while competitors like Lululemon and Nike are at 59% and 82% of their respective highs [5][6]. Group 2: Company Comparison - On Holding has a market capitalization of $17.1 billion, significantly smaller than Nike's $112 billion, which offers a better risk-to-reward ratio for growth potential [6]. - On Holding's price-to-book (P/B) ratio is at 20.0x, compared to Nike's 8.0x, suggesting that the market is willing to pay a premium for expected outperformance [8]. Group 3: Financial Performance - On Holding reported a 43% annual growth in revenue, attributed to its increasing market share [10]. - The company's gross profit margin reached 59.9%, one of the highest in the industry, with its wholesale division contributing 38.1% to net revenue [12]. - Despite a reported net loss due to currency exchange rates, On Holding would have delivered a significant earnings beat on an adjusted basis, leading to a positive market reaction [13][14].