Core Insights - On Holding AG (ONON) has experienced a significant decline in market value, falling close to 25% since early January [1] Financial Performance - The latest quarterly performance and Q3 numbers have been reviewed, indicating a need for further analysis on the company's financial health [1]

Core Insights - The holiday sales season for 2025-26 in the U.S. is crucial, with Thanksgiving and Black Friday being key days for consumer spending [2] - Despite a challenging economic environment, holiday sales are expected to grow, albeit at a muted rate, leading to recommendations for five apparel and shoe stocks with strong short-term upside potential [3][10] Industry Overview - Consumer spending is the largest component of U.S. GDP, and the holiday season represents the peak period for this spending [3] - The apparel and footwear industry is facing challenges as consumers shift towards value-driven purchases, impacting demand [6] - The Zacks Retail – Apparel and Shoes industry ranks in the top 26% of Zacks Industry Rank, indicating potential for outperformance in the next three to six months [7] Company Highlights Crocs Inc. (CROX) - Crocs has a Zacks Rank of 1 and is experiencing significant growth in brand awareness through collaborations and product innovations [11] - The company is refreshing its product lines and has an expected revenue growth rate of 0.4% and earnings growth rate of 3.9% for the next year [14] - The short-term average price target for CROX indicates an 11.2% increase from its last closing price of $83.07 [14] On Holding AG (ONON) - On Holding also holds a Zacks Rank of 1, focusing on ultralight footwear and sports apparel [15] - The expected revenue growth rate is 21.2% and earnings growth rate is 79.8% for the next year [16] - The short-term average price target suggests a 45.3% increase from the last closing price of $41.78 [16] Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL) - Ralph Lauren has a Zacks Rank of 2 and has outperformed the industry due to its strategic "Next Great Chapter: Accelerate Plan" [17] - The company is investing in digital transformation, with expected revenue growth of 9.5% and earnings growth of 25% for the current year [20] - The short-term average price target indicates a 3.3% increase from the last closing price of $364.50 [20] Kontoor Brands Inc. (KTB) - Kontoor Brands, with a Zacks Rank of 2, operates lifestyle apparel brands like Wrangler and Lee [22] - The expected revenue growth rate is 11.3% and earnings growth rate is 5.3% for the next year [23] - The short-term average price target suggests a 31% increase from the last closing price of $73.69 [23] Boot Barn Holdings Inc. (BOOT) - Boot Barn Holdings has a Zacks Rank of 2 and focuses on western and work-related footwear and apparel [24] - The expected revenue growth rate is 16.2% and earnings growth rate is 20.5% for the current year [25] - The short-term average price target indicates a 15% increase from the last closing price of $195.76 [25]

Group 1 - Major indexes are at robust levels, but small- and mid-cap growth stocks are struggling to maintain performance as the end of 2025 approaches [1] - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in technology companies and has been a contributor on Seeking Alpha since 2017, providing insights into industry themes [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide specific investment recommendations or advice regarding the suitability of investments for particular investors [2][3]

Core Insights - Markets are facing challenges in maintaining record highs as the end of 2025 approaches, despite major indexes being at strong levels [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Small- and mid-cap growth stocks are not experiencing the same buoyancy as larger stocks, indicating a divergence in market performance [1] Group 2: Analyst Background - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in covering technology companies and has worked in Silicon Valley, providing insights into current industry themes [1] - He has been a contributor on Seeking Alpha since 2017 and has been featured in various web publications, with his articles reaching popular trading apps like Robinhood [1]

Core Insights - The Swiss company On has surpassed Nike in terms of growth and market presence, indicating a significant shift in the competitive landscape of the athletic footwear industry [1] - On is now focusing on overcoming tariff challenges, which could impact its pricing strategy and market expansion plans [1] Company Performance - On's revenue growth has been impressive, with a reported increase of 70% year-over-year, showcasing its strong market demand and brand appeal [1] - The company has successfully positioned itself as a premium brand, attracting a loyal customer base and increasing its market share [1] Industry Trends - The athletic footwear industry is experiencing heightened competition, with brands like On challenging established players such as Nike and Adidas [1] - Tariffs and trade policies are becoming critical factors for companies in the industry, influencing their operational strategies and pricing models [1]

Core Insights - Visa is a leading player in the digital payments industry, benefiting from a strong network effect and an asset-light business model that allows for high profit margins [4][6][8] - The company has a significant global presence with 4.8 billion payment credentials and acceptance at over 150 million merchants, making it the most widely held and accepted card [4][5] - The growth of digital payments presents substantial opportunities for Visa, especially as many regions still operate primarily on cash [8][9] Group 1 - Visa's network effect incentivizes merchants to accept its cards, enhancing its market position [4][5] - The asset-light business model enables Visa to expand its reach without heavy investment in customer acquisition or infrastructure [6][8] - Visa's competitive advantages include strong cash flow and a proven track record, making it a favorable long-term investment [8] Group 2 - The ongoing transition from cash to digital payments positions Visa to capitalize on future growth opportunities [9] - Visa's operational margins are among the highest in the industry, allowing it to maintain a competitive edge [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - On Holding is adopting a full-price strategy for the holiday season, opting out of Black Friday discounts to reinforce its premium brand positioning [1][2]. Company Performance - On Holding reported Q3 net sales of 794.4 million Swiss francs ($994.3 million) and a net income of 118.9 million francs, significantly up from 30.5 million francs in the same quarter last year [4]. - The company raised its full-year sales guidance from 2.91 billion francs to 2.98 billion francs, indicating strong performance and optimism [4]. Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Adidas and Nike are engaging in early Black Friday promotions, contrasting with On's strategy [2]. - Nike anticipates a decrease in fiscal Q2 revenue and a drop in gross margins, with Q1 net income down 31% year over year [5]. - HOKA, owned by Deckers, is also promoting discounted holiday gifts, reflecting a different approach compared to On [3]. Market Trends - Deckers' brands, HOKA and UGG, saw sales increases of 11.1% and 10.1% year over year, while other brands under Deckers experienced a 26.5% decrease [7]. - Tariffs are influencing sales guidance adjustments for Nike and Deckers, as rising prices are affecting consumer purchasing behavior [8].

Core Insights - On has officially opened its largest store in the Greater Bay Area in Guangzhou, themed "Hello, Guangzhou!" This store aims to connect urban nature with an active lifestyle, reflecting the brand's design aesthetics and local cultural elements [2][4]. Company Strategy - The opening of the new store is part of On's strategic initiative to deepen its presence in the Chinese market and strengthen local community ties. The store is designed to cater not only to runners but also to engage with the local youth community [4][12]. Store Design and Features - The store's design draws inspiration from the running routes in Tianhe Park, featuring modern architectural elements that mimic natural landscapes. The interior showcases a festive atmosphere with a visual theme centered around oversized shoelaces, highlighting the blend of functionality and lifestyle aesthetics [5]. Financial Performance - On reported a 24.9% year-on-year revenue increase for Q3, reaching 794.4 million Swiss francs (approximately 7.09 billion RMB). The gross margin rose to 65.7%, and net profit surged by 289.9% to 119 million Swiss francs (about 1.06 billion RMB). The Asia-Pacific market was a significant growth driver, with a 109.2% revenue increase [8]. Market Context - Guangzhou's sports industry has seen substantial growth, with total sports consumption projected to reach 63.125 billion RMB in 2024. The city has introduced 999 new retail stores since 2021, with 49% located in the Tianhe District, indicating a strong trend in sports brand expansion [8][9]. Local Sports Culture - The development of running culture in Guangzhou is supported by government initiatives, including funding for community sports events. The city has implemented 66 new sports facilities, enhancing access to fitness activities and contributing to the local economy [10][12].

Core Viewpoint - On Holding (ONON) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), indicating a positive outlook based on rising earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][2]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in earnings estimates, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [3][5]. - Institutional investors utilize earnings estimates to determine the fair value of stocks, leading to buying or selling actions that affect stock prices [3]. Company Performance and Outlook - The upgrade for On Holding reflects an improvement in the company's underlying business, suggesting that investor sentiment regarding this trend could drive the stock price higher [4]. - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, On Holding is expected to earn $0.93 per share, with a significant increase of 61.6% in the Zacks Consensus Estimate over the past three months [7]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [6]. - Only the top 5% of Zacks-covered stocks receive a "Strong Buy" rating, indicating superior earnings estimate revisions and potential for market-beating returns [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - ON Holding (ONON) shows potential for significant upside, with a mean price target of $60.68 indicating a 40.1% increase from the current price of $43.3 [1] Price Targets - The average price target consists of 22 estimates, ranging from a low of $30.00 to a high of $85.00, with a standard deviation of $10.3, indicating variability among analysts [2] - The lowest estimate suggests a decline of 30.7%, while the highest indicates a potential upside of 96.3% [2] - Analysts' price targets can often mislead investors, as empirical research shows they rarely indicate actual price movements [7][10] Analyst Sentiment - There is strong agreement among analysts regarding ONON's ability to report better earnings, which supports the expectation of an upside [4][11] - Over the past 30 days, five earnings estimates have been revised upward, leading to a Zacks Consensus Estimate increase of 89.2% [12] Zacks Rank - ONON holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, indicating strong potential for near-term upside [13] Conclusion - While the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of the extent of potential gains, the direction it implies appears to be a useful guide for further research [14]