Performance Overview - The Akre Focus Fund's Institutional share class reported a third quarter 2025 performance of -3.65%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 Total Return, which was at 8.12% [3][4] - For the trailing 12-month period ending September 30, 2025, the Fund's Institutional share class achieved a return of 3.71%, compared to 17.60% for the S&P 500 Total Return [3] Key Holdings Impact - The primary contributor to the Fund's poor performance was a 26.06% decline in the share price of Constellation Software, which accounted for a 3.56% detriment to the Fund's performance in the quarter [5][6] - Constellation Software has been held by the Fund for over 11 years, with a compound annual rate of return of 24.97% since its initial purchase [7] Long-term Perspective on Constellation Software - Despite the recent drawdown, the Fund maintains confidence in Constellation Software's ability to navigate technological changes and protect its market position [8][9] - Constellation has demonstrated a compound annual total revenue growth rate of approximately 20% over the past decade, indicating strong underlying business performance [8] Leadership Transition - Mark Leonard, the founder of Constellation Software, announced his immediate step down from the President role due to health issues, raising concerns about leadership continuity [12][10] - The Fund expresses optimism regarding Mark Miller, the new President, who has been with Constellation since its first acquisition and is expected to uphold the company's foundational principles [14] Sector and Holdings Composition - As of September 30, 2025, the top five holdings in the Fund included Mastercard (12.4%), Brookfield Corp (10.6%), and Constellation Software (10.1%) [28] - The sector weightings revealed a significant concentration in Financials (52.1%) and Information Technology (20.7%) [28]

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Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of stock splits and share repurchase programs on investor sentiment and company performance, particularly highlighting O'Reilly Automotive as a leading example in 2025 [2][11][15]. Stock Splits - Stock splits are cosmetic changes that adjust share price and outstanding share count without affecting a company's market cap or operating performance [2]. - Forward stock splits, which lower share prices to make stocks more accessible to retail investors, are generally viewed positively, while reverse splits are often associated with struggling companies [3][4]. - In 2024, notable forward stock splits were seen in tech companies, but 2025 has shifted focus to high-profile non-tech stock splits [5]. Company Performance - Interactive Brokers Group completed its first-ever stock split (4-for-1) and replaced Walgreens Boots Alliance in the S&P 500, reflecting its successful automation investments [6][7]. - Fastenal has embraced stock splits as part of its corporate culture, completing its ninth forward split since going public [8]. - O'Reilly Automotive announced a significant 15-for-1 stock split, which was approved by shareholders, marking its largest split to date [11]. Market Trends - The average age of vehicles on U.S. roadways has increased to 12.8 years in 2025, driving demand for auto parts from companies like O'Reilly [13]. - O'Reilly's supply chain improvements, including a hub-and-spoke distribution model, enhance its ability to meet customer needs efficiently [14]. Share Repurchase Programs - O'Reilly Automotive has executed a substantial share repurchase program since January 2011, spending $26.59 billion to retire nearly 60% of its outstanding shares [16]. - The company's buyback strategy is expected to positively impact earnings per share (EPS) as it continues to deliver steady revenue and profit growth [16][17].

Industry Overview - The Zacks Automotive - Retail and Wholesale - Parts industry is currently facing challenges, with expectations of cooling vehicle sales as electric vehicle (EV) incentives expire and high prices deter buyers, impacting demand for parts and accessories [1][4] - The industry includes retailing, distribution, and installation of vehicle parts and accessories, with consumers having the option to repair vehicles themselves (DIY) or seek professional services (DIFM) [3] Factors Impacting the Industry - Vehicle sales are expected to soften due to high prices and cooling EV demand, which may lead to a decline in auto parts and accessories demand [4] - The complexity of modern vehicles is shifting repairs from DIY consumers to professional service providers, shrinking the DIY segment while expanding the DIFM side [5] - High capital demands for electrification and digital transformation are straining profitability, requiring significant investment in new technologies and distribution networks [6] - The aging U.S. vehicle fleet, with an average age of 12.8 years, is driving steady demand for replacement parts and maintenance, benefiting the aftermarket [7] Industry Performance and Valuation - The Zacks Auto Retail & Wholesale Parts industry ranks 184, placing it in the bottom 24% of 245 Zacks industries, indicating subdued near-term prospects [8][10] - Over the past year, the industry has underperformed compared to the Auto, Tires, and Truck sector and the S&P 500, with a growth of 15.5% versus the S&P 500's 16.2% and the sector's 48.1% [11] - The industry is currently trading at an EV/EBITDA ratio of 28.47X, higher than the S&P 500's 18.49X and the sector's 23.41X, reflecting the high capital demands and debt levels [14] Company Highlights - O'Reilly Automotive has achieved 32 consecutive years of record revenue growth, driven by aggressive store expansion and a strong distribution network, with plans to enhance inventory levels [19] - O'Reilly's Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 EPS and sales indicates year-over-year growth of 8% and 6%, respectively, with further growth projected for 2026 [20] - Advance Auto Parts has strengthened its liquidity through the sale of its Worldpac business for $1.5 billion, allowing a renewed focus on core operations and efficiency improvements [23] - Advance Auto's Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 EPS implies a significant year-over-year growth of 725%, with continued growth expected in 2026 [24]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY) will report quarterly earnings of $0.83 per share, a 9.2% increase year over year, with revenues expected to reach $4.7 billion, up 7.6% from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 0.4% in the past 30 days, reflecting a reassessment by covering analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Key Metrics Estimates - Sales to Do-It-Yourself Customers are expected to reach $2.37 billion, indicating a 6.8% increase from the prior year [5]. - Other sales and sales adjustments are projected at $119.61 million, reflecting a 2.7% increase year over year [5]. - Sales to professional service provider customers are estimated at $2.22 billion, suggesting a 9.5% year-over-year change [5]. Store and Square Footage Estimates - Total square footage is expected to be 50 million square feet, up from 48 million square feet in the same quarter last year [6]. - The total number of stores is projected to reach 6,534, compared to 6,291 a year ago [6]. - The ending domestic store count is anticipated to be 6,402, an increase from 6,187 in the same quarter last year [6]. Additional Store Metrics - The number of stores opened is likely to be 47, consistent with the previous year's figure [7]. - The ending Canada store count is expected to remain at 26, unchanged from the prior year [7]. - Domestic new stores opened are projected at 40, up from 35 a year ago [8]. - Mexico stores at the end of the period are estimated at 107, compared to 78 last year [8]. - Sales per weighted-average square foot are expected to reach $93.73 million, up from $89.17 million year over year [8]. Overall Performance - O'Reilly Automotive shares have shown a return of -2.4% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by 0.7% [9]. - With a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), ORLY is expected to underperform the overall market in the near future [9].

Group 1 - Publicly traded companies issue shares for various reasons, including raising capital through initial public offerings (IPOs) and secondary offerings [1] - Companies may also initiate stock splits, which do not raise money but change the number of shares and their value, maintaining overall valuation [2] - Stock splits are often executed after significant price increases, as seen with O'Reilly Automotive and Coca-Cola Consolidated, which have risen 497% and 473% over the last decade [3] Group 2 - O'Reilly Automotive operates approximately 6,500 retail stores in North America, focusing on maintenance and repair of used vehicles, achieving operating margins of 19% [5] - Analysts at TD Cowen have set a price target of $125 per share for O'Reilly, indicating a potential upside of about 21% within a one-year outlook [6] - O'Reilly is enhancing earnings per share (EPS) growth through stock buybacks, while Coca-Cola Consolidated is investing in manufacturing facilities to improve profit margins [7]

Core Insights - O'Reilly Auto Parts (ORLY) has been a strong long-term investment for Right Tail Capital, demonstrating resilience and growth despite market challenges [3][4][12] - The company has a balanced customer mix of "Do It Yourself" (DIY) and "Do It For Me" (DIFM), which positions it well against competitors like AutoZone and Advance Auto Parts [7][14] - O'Reilly's distribution advantages and strong company culture contribute to its competitive edge, allowing it to provide superior service that e-commerce platforms struggle to replicate [9][13] Historical Performance - In 2017, ORLY shares fell 30-50% due to fears of Amazon disrupting the auto parts retail market, but the company rebounded significantly, achieving a ~100x return from its IPO price [5][6] - During the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, ORLY shares dropped 40-50%, but the company was able to leverage its proven track record to recover and grow [11] Competitive Positioning - O'Reilly has outperformed its peers by effectively navigating supply chain disruptions and maintaining strong relationships with professional mechanics [12][14] - The company's ability to grow its DIFM business faster than AutoZone, despite AutoZone's established presence, highlights O'Reilly's operational excellence [14] Future Outlook - The ongoing need for auto parts, driven by the increasing age and complexity of vehicles, positions O'Reilly for continued growth [15] - Key drivers of O'Reilly's success include a focus on necessary products, disciplined reinvestment, and a customer-first approach [15][16]

Core Insights - Investors are encouraged to consider stocks like Deckers Outdoor, O'Reilly Automotive, and Lululemon Athletica due to their high return on invested capital (ROIC) in the competitive retail sector [1][3] Group 1: Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) - ROIC is a critical metric in the retail sector, indicating how much operating profit a company generates from every dollar invested [2] - The median ROIC for retail stocks tracked by Citi Research is 17.6%, with Deckers leading at 53%, followed by O'Reilly Automotive at 45% and Lululemon at 45% [3] Group 2: Stock Performance and Market Trends - Shares of Lululemon and Deckers have underperformed the broader market in 2025, both down approximately 50% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 has increased around 14% [4] - Analysts predict a flat profit year for Deckers ending March 2026, but expect around 10% growth in the following fiscal year, with a 25% upside implied by average sell-side analyst price targets [5] Group 3: Brand Performance - Hoka, a brand under Deckers, is noted as one of the fastest-growing in the athletic space, although there are concerns about potential growth slowdown in fiscal year 2026 [6] - O'Reilly Automotive is experiencing significant success, with shares up over 32% due to delayed new car purchases, benefiting from its efficient supply chain despite its stock being valued at nearly 33 times forward earnings, the highest in a decade [7]

Core Insights - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is a leading player in the auto parts retail industry, providing a wide range of aftermarket car parts, accessories, and service solutions [1] - The company has a market capitalization of $89.7 billion and operates over 6,400 stores across the U.S., Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada, catering to both professional installers and consumers [2] - O'Reilly Automotive is expected to report a profit of $0.83 per share for Q3, reflecting a 9.2% year-over-year increase from $0.76 per share in the same period last year [3] Financial Performance - For the full fiscal year 2025, analysts project O'Reilly Automotive's diluted EPS to grow by 7.7% year-over-year to $2.95, with further growth of 12.2% anticipated in fiscal 2026, reaching $3.31 [4] - The company reported a revenue increase of 5.9% year-over-year to $4.53 billion in Q2, aligning with analyst expectations, and its EPS for the quarter was $0.78, up 9.9% annually [7] Stock Performance - O'Reilly Automotive's shares have outperformed the broader market, gaining 36.3% over the past 52 weeks and 32.8% year-to-date, compared to the S&P 500 Index's increases of 17.6% and 14.2% respectively [5] - The company is categorized under the consumer cyclical sector, which has seen a 21% gain over the past 52 weeks and 6.7% year-to-date, indicating O'Reilly's strong performance within its sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is set to release its third quarter 2025 financial results on October 22, 2025, with a subsequent conference call scheduled for October 23, 2025 [1][2]. Company Information - O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is a leading specialty retailer in the automotive aftermarket industry, founded in 1957 by the O'Reilly family [3]. - The company operates 6,483 stores across 48 U.S. states, Puerto Rico, Mexico, and Canada as of June 30, 2025 [3]. Financial Results Announcement - The third quarter 2025 results will be available after 3:30 p.m. Central Time on October 22, 2025, on the company's website [2][4]. - A conference call to discuss the financial results will take place on October 23, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. Central Time [2][4].