Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley anticipates pressure on Prada's stock price, lowering the target price from HKD 66 to HKD 62 while maintaining an "Overweight" rating, highlighting the brand's strong performance in the luxury goods sector during Q2 [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Prada's Q2 sales growth was 6.1% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, which was below expectations compared to Q1's 12.5% and market expectations of 9% [1] - Revenue from both Prada and Miu Miu brands slightly missed expectations, with same-store sales growth around 9% but lacking operational leverage, resulting in adjusted EBIT for the first half being 3.1% lower than anticipated [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The negative impact of international tourism is expected to peak in the summer, leading to potential downward adjustments in Q3 sales forecasts, with the latest prediction showing an 8.3% growth at constant exchange rates, down from a previous forecast of 10.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Macquarie's report indicates that Prada's (01913) sales for the first half of the year increased by 9% year-on-year at constant exchange rates, aligning closely with the bank's forecasts [1] Financial Performance - Net profit rose by 0.6% year-on-year, which was 7% lower than Macquarie's predictions [1] - The bank has revised down its net profit forecasts for Prada for the years 2025 to 2027 by 7.6%, 7.1%, and 6.6% respectively, to account for the first half performance and brand investments [1] - Target price has been reduced by 8% from HKD 65 to HKD 60, while maintaining an outperform rating [1] Market Outlook - Management expects that by the end of August, overall tourist traffic in Japan and Europe will stabilize year-on-year [1] - The company aims to enhance brand value and believes there is still room for improvement in profitability through operational leverage [1] - Management also believes that Miu Miu's penetration rate remains low in many countries, indicating potential for further improvement in product categories and combinations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Prada's stock price fell by 14.32% to HKD 40.1 per share, marking a new low since January 2024, primarily due to disappointing earnings results [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Prada reported net revenue of €2.74 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, with actual growth at 8% [1] - Retail sales reached €2.45 billion, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth, while adjusted EBIT was €619 million, maintaining a profit margin of 22.6% [1] - Gross margin improved to 80.1%, up by 0.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] Brand Performance - Sales for the Prada and Miu Miu brands were slightly below expectations, with Prada's sales down by 3.6% and Miu Miu's up by 40% [1] - The company is facing significant year-on-year comparison pressure for the Miu Miu brand due to ongoing challenges in tourism consumption [1] Market Reactions and Forecasts - Analysts from various firms have adjusted their profit forecasts for Prada, with a 5% to 6% reduction in net profit predictions for 2025 to 2027 [2] - Morgan Stanley noted a slowdown in luxury goods consumption among cross-border travelers, leading to a 6.1% year-on-year sales growth in Q2, down from 12.5% in Q1 [2] - Target prices for Prada's stock have been revised downwards, with estimates dropping from HKD 72 to HKD 50 by one firm and from HKD 66 to HKD 62 by Morgan Stanley [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Prada's sales for the first half of the year increased by 9% year-on-year when calculated at constant exchange rates, aligning closely with Macquarie's forecasts [1] - Net profit rose by 0.6% year-on-year, which was 7% lower than Macquarie's predictions, primarily due to non-recurring costs associated with the acquisition of Versace [1] - Macquarie has revised its net profit forecasts for Prada for the years 2025 to 2027 downwards by 7.6%, 7.1%, and 6.6% respectively, to account for the first half performance and brand investments [1] Group 2 - The target price for Prada has been reduced by 8% from HKD 65 to HKD 60, while maintaining an "outperform" rating [1] - Management anticipates that overall tourist traffic in Japan and Europe will stabilize year-on-year by the end of August [1] - The company aims to enhance brand value and believes there is still room for improvement in profitability through operational leverage [1] Group 3 - Management believes that Miu Miu's penetration rate remains low in many countries, indicating further potential for improvement in product categories and combinations [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Prada's second-quarter performance was below expectations due to a slowdown in luxury goods consumption among cross-border travelers, with sales growth at 6.1% year-on-year compared to 12.5% in the first quarter and market expectations of 9% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Prada and Miu Miu brand revenues were slightly below expectations, with same-store sales growth around 9%, indicating a lack of operating leverage, resulting in adjusted EBIT for the first half being 3.1% lower than expected [1] - The latest sales forecast for the third quarter has been downgraded to a growth of 8.3% from a previous estimate of 10.4% [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the negative impact of international tourism will peak in the summer, leading to potential downward adjustments in sales forecasts [1] - The target price for Prada's stock has been reduced from HKD 66 to HKD 62, although the "overweight" rating is maintained, with the firm still viewing Prada and Miu Miu as strong performers in the luxury goods sector [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is experiencing a continuous decline, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.13% at 24,880 points and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 0.77% at 5,448 points [1]. Company Performance - Prada's mid-term results show an adjusted EBIT of €618.5 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.55%. The net revenue is approximately €386 million, with a slight growth of 0.62%. Earnings per share stand at €0.151 [3]. - All regions reported growth in sales, with the Asia-Pacific region seeing a net retail sales increase of 10.4%, Europe at 8.6%, the Americas at 12.4%, and Japan at 4.3% [3]. Sector Movements - Technology stocks are collectively declining, with Meituan falling over 3%. Meanwhile, innovative drug concepts are showing positive movement, with Lepu Biopharmaceuticals rising over 5% [3]. - Domestic brokerage stocks are also opening lower, with Everbright Securities down over 2% [3]. - Gold stocks continue to retreat, with China Silver Group dropping over 3% [3]. - Stablecoin concept stocks are generally down, with Jingwei TianDi falling over 6% [3]. ETF Performance - Cross-border ETFs such as the Hang Seng Innovation Drug ETF and others are up over 2%. Additionally, U.S. ETFs like the S&P 50 ETF and Nasdaq ETFs are up over 1% [3].

Core Viewpoint - Prada's stock dropped over 9% following the release of its interim results, indicating investor concerns about the company's performance and future leadership changes [1] Financial Performance - Prada reported a net revenue of €2.74 billion, reflecting a 9% increase year-on-year when adjusted for fixed exchange rates [1] - Adjusted EBIT was approximately €618.5 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.55% [1] - Net income was around €386 million, with a modest year-on-year increase of 0.62% [1] Strategic Developments - Management disclosed that the acquisition of Versace is expected to be completed in Q4, with an integration plan to be announced in early 2026 [1] - The CEO of Prada, Gianfranco D'Attis, will officially leave the company on June 30, 2025, after a tenure of only two and a half years [1] - During the transition period, Andrea Guerra, the Group CEO, will temporarily manage the Prada brand until a new CEO is appointed [1]

值得注意的是，普拉达此前公布，Prada品牌首席执行官Gianfranco D'Attis将于2025年6月30日正式离 任，其任期仅两年半时间。过渡期内，集团首席执行官Andrea Guerra将临时接管Prada品牌的管理，直 至新任CEO人选到位。而普拉达CEO在中报后表示，他将长期担任普拉达品牌的临时首席执行官，不确 定是否会任命新的品牌首席执行官。 消息面上，普拉达发布中期业绩，收益净额为27.4亿欧元，按固定汇率计，较2024年同期增加9%;经调 整EBIT约6.185亿欧元，同比增长7.55%;收入净额约3.86亿欧元，同比增长0.62%。针对投资者关注的范 思哲收购进展，管理层首次披露交易将于Q4完成，2026年初公布整合方案。 普拉达(01913)绩后跌超9%，截至发稿，跌10.36%，报41.95港元，成交额4740.52万港元。 ...

Core Insights - Prada's adjusted EBIT for the mid-term is approximately €618.5 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.55% [1] - The net revenue stands at approximately €386 million, showing a slight year-on-year growth of 0.62% [1] - Earnings per share are reported at €0.151 [1] Revenue Breakdown - Retail sales net revenue increased by 10.1% year-on-year, primarily driven by full-price and comparable sales [1] - Retail sales account for 89.5% of total net revenue [1] - Prada brand's retail sales net revenue decreased by 2% at constant exchange rates, while Miu Miu's retail sales net revenue surged by 49% [1] Regional Performance - All regions reported growth in retail sales net revenue: - Asia-Pacific increased by 10.4% - Europe grew by 8.6% - Americas saw a rise of 12.4% - Japan experienced a growth of 4.3% - The Middle East showed strong performance with a growth of 25.7% [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The group reported net revenues of €2,740 million, up 9% versus H1 2024 at constant FX, with a drag from FX of 160 basis points, leading to an increase of 8% at current exchange rates [19] - Retail sales for the period reached €2,450 million, up 10% versus H1 2024 at constant FX [19] - EBIT adjusted reached €619 million in H1 2025, with a margin of 22.6%, showing steady profitability versus H1 2024 [20] - Net income reached €386 million, in line with the same period last year [25] - Cash flow from operations reached €696 million, and the net cash position stood at €352 million [20][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail sales for the Prada brand were down 2% in the semester, while Miu Miu saw a 49% retail sales growth in the semester [21][22] - Wholesale was down 1% versus H1 2024, impacted by some degree of phasing [20] - Churches brand reported a 4% increase in retail sales in the semester [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Retail sales in Asia Pacific were up 10% in the semester, while Europe was up 9%, with Q2 impacted by lower tourist spending [23] - The Middle East delivered the best performance of the semester, up 26% in H1 [24] - Japanese retail sales decelerated against exceptionally high tourist flows in 2024, particularly in Q2 [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining strong relationships with consumers and investing in new products and collections [6][10] - There is an emphasis on elevating the customer experience and enhancing the in-store experience [20][26] - The company aims to navigate the resetting luxury market by offering unique and personalized products [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by a cyclical downturn and geopolitical factors affecting tourism [7][8] - There is a cautious optimism regarding the second half of the year, with expectations of improved performance despite ongoing uncertainties [30][42] - The management is focused on long-term growth and maintaining brand desirability through strategic investments [20][25] Other Important Information - Significant investments were made in sustainability initiatives, including lower impact raw materials and diversity and inclusion programs [16][17] - The company is preparing for the integration of Versace, with expectations for completion between September and November [56] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on American and Chinese clusters in Q2 - Chinese demand was subdued but stable, while North American demand improved slightly [38] Question: Outlook for Q3 and easier comps - Q3 is expected to be softer, but there are easier comps compared to Q2 [41][42] Question: Prada brand's new collection and pricing strategy - The focus is on maintaining credibility at higher price points while offering a balanced collection [50][51] Question: Operating leverage in H1 - The company maintained stable profitability despite increased investments in customer-facing activities [53][54] Question: Versace acquisition timeline and management plans - The acquisition is expected to finalize between September and November, with careful management of the brand's identity [56] Question: Market share gains for the Prada brand - The brand is focused on maintaining its creative identity and enhancing retail KPIs to gain market share [64] Question: Future growth for Miu Miu - The focus remains on leather goods, with plans for store expansions and maintaining brand positioning [68][70] Question: Gross margin sustainability - The gross margin is expected to remain around 80%, supported by a positive sales mix [72] Question: Profitability comparison between Miu Miu and Prada - Miu Miu is on a positive trajectory but still requires investment to catch up with Prada [110] Question: Drivers of organic growth for the group - Growth will depend on geographical opportunities and product category expansions, particularly in leather goods [114]