QUALCOMM TodayQCOMQUALCOMM$162.89 -1.59 (-0.97%) 52-Week Range$104.33▼$230.63Dividend Yield2.09%P/E Ratio21.89Price Target$210.63Add to WatchlistQualcomm NASDAQ: QCOM is a well-established tech sector company with a long history of success. While investors might remember the company as a powerhouse during the earliest days of the cellphone era, the company has since shifted its focus to become a leader in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Qualcomm has steadily diversified its revenue base to mitigate ...

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm is poised for a recovery driven by the growth of AI-enabled smartphones, despite recent underperformance in the smartphone market [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Performance and Guidance - Qualcomm's quarterly revenue for Q3 fiscal 2024 increased by 11% year over year to $9.4 billion, with adjusted earnings rising 25% to $2.33 per share, surpassing Wall Street expectations [3]. - The company anticipates revenue of $9.9 billion and earnings of $2.55 per share for the current quarter, indicating a year-over-year revenue increase of 14% and a bottom-line growth of 26% [4]. - Despite positive results, Qualcomm's stock fell over 5% after the earnings release due to concerns about slow recovery in the smartphone market [5]. Group 2: Market Trends and AI Impact - The overall smartphone market is expected to grow at a "flattish to low single digits," but premium smartphones and AI-enabled devices are experiencing faster growth [5][6]. - Shipments of generative-AI-enabled smartphones are projected to quadruple from 2024 to 2027, with these devices expected to account for 43% of global smartphone shipments by 2027, up from 11% this year [6]. Group 3: Future Growth Prospects - Qualcomm is projected to end the current fiscal year with revenue of $38.6 billion, an 8% increase from the previous year, with fiscal 2025 revenue growth expected to exceed 10% [7]. - If Qualcomm achieves a 15% annual earnings growth rate over the next three years, its earnings per share could rise to $15, potentially doubling its current stock price to $345 [8]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio of Qualcomm suggests it is undervalued compared to the Nasdaq-100, presenting a solid investment opportunity [8].

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm (QCOM) has received an upgrade to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook for its earnings estimates, which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][2]. Earnings Outlook - The Zacks rating upgrade reflects an optimistic earnings outlook for Qualcomm, which could lead to increased buying pressure and a rise in stock price [2]. - Qualcomm is projected to earn $10.01 per share for the fiscal year ending September 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 18.7% [5]. Earnings Estimate Revisions - Analysts have been consistently raising their earnings estimates for Qualcomm, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by 2% over the past three months [5]. - The correlation between earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock movements is strong, making it beneficial for investors to track these revisions [4]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [4]. - Qualcomm's upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating a strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [7].

As you likely know, AI stocks have been pulling back in recent weeks. Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) is no exception. During this time frame, Qualcomm stock has fallen by around 20%, from around $200 to around $160 per share.With broad sentiment for the AI growth trend shifting to bearish, not even the release of solid quarterly results has been enough to fight the trend. Worse yet, with this reversal, Qualcomm skeptics are coming out of the woodwork. Once again, they are laying out the bear case for this mobile-fo ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qualcomm (QCOM.O) [1][3] Core Insights - Qualcomm's FY2024 Q3 revenue reached $9.39 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11.3%, with a gross margin of 55.6%, up 0.37 percentage points from the previous year. GAAP net profit was $2.13 billion, up 18% year-over-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was $2.65 billion, reflecting a 25.8% increase [2][3] - The mobile business showed significant growth, and the PC chip sales have commenced. The QCT (semiconductor) segment generated $8.07 billion in revenue, a 12.5% year-over-year increase, with an EBT of $2.18 billion and a pre-tax profit margin of 27%, up 2.7 percentage points year-over-year [2] - The automotive segment saw remarkable growth, with revenue of $810 million, a year-over-year increase of 86.9%. Qualcomm secured over 10 new design wins with global automotive manufacturers [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY2024 Q3 revenue: $9.39 billion, up 11.3% YoY - Gross margin: 55.6%, up 0.37 percentage points YoY - GAAP net profit: $2.13 billion, up 18% YoY - Non-GAAP net profit: $2.65 billion, up 25.8% YoY [2] Business Segments - QCT revenue: $8.07 billion, up 12.5% YoY - Mobile business revenue: $5.9 billion, up 12.3% YoY - IoT revenue: $1.36 billion, down 8.5% YoY - Automotive revenue: $810 million, up 86.9% YoY [2] Future Guidance - For FY24Q4, Qualcomm expects overall revenue to be between $9.5 billion and $10.3 billion, with a midpoint growth of 14.6% YoY. QCT revenue is projected to be between $8.1 billion and $8.7 billion, with a midpoint growth of 13.9% YoY [3] - Adjusted EPS for FY24Q4 is expected to be between $2.45 and $2.65 [3] Profitability Forecast - Projected GAAP/Non-GAAP net profit CAGR over the next three years is 25.4% and 16.8%, respectively [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qualcomm (QCOM.US) with a target price of $240.7, indicating a potential upside of 51% from the current price of $159.3 [1][2][3]. Core Insights - Qualcomm's FY3Q24 performance aligns with market expectations, and the guidance for FY4Q24 is slightly above market forecasts. The company is expected to benefit significantly from the expansion of edge AI applications, particularly in smartphones, electric vehicles, and AI PCs [1][2]. - The report highlights that the average selling price of smartphone chips is expected to rise due to increased demand for high-end models in China. Additionally, the penetration of smart cockpit and autonomous driving technologies in electric vehicles is projected to contribute to new revenue streams, with automotive revenue expected to reach $4 billion by FY2026 [1][2]. - The next-generation Snapdragon 8 series chips will utilize Qualcomm's proprietary Oryon CPU platform, enhancing the company's autonomy in optimization [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY3Q24, Qualcomm reported revenues of $9.393 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11%, with a gross margin of 55.6% [6][7]. - The guidance for FY4Q24 anticipates revenue growth of 8% quarter-over-quarter and 15% year-over-year, with expectations of low single-digit growth in mobile business and low double-digit growth in IoT [1][6]. - The projected revenues for FY2024 are $38.687 billion, with a net profit of $9.502 billion, reflecting a 31% increase year-over-year [5][6]. Valuation - The report employs a DCF valuation method, assuming a growth rate of 12% for FY2029-FY2033 and a perpetual growth rate of 3%, with a WACC of 11.2%. The target price of $240.7 corresponds to a FY2024 PE of 28.4x [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Qualcomm, projecting revenue growth and strong performance in various segments, particularly in automotive and mobile chip businesses [2][19][29]. Core Insights - Qualcomm's Q2 FY2024 performance exceeded expectations, driven by smartphone chip sales, with revenue reaching $9.4 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11% [3][7]. - The automotive chip segment achieved record revenue for four consecutive quarters, with a 87% year-over-year increase, and the company anticipates automotive revenue to reach $4 billion by 2026 [3][11][30]. - The IoT business showed signs of recovery, with revenue of $1.4 billion, down 8% year-over-year, but expected to benefit from AI PC and XR growth [3][19][27]. - Qualcomm expects Q3 FY2024 revenue to be between $9.5 billion and $10.3 billion, with adjusted EPS projected at $2.45 to $2.65, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 25% to 35% [19][21]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q2 FY2024, Qualcomm reported revenue of $9.4 billion and net income of $2.13 billion, with an EPS of $1.88, marking an 18% increase year-over-year [3][7][28]. - The QCT segment (Qualcomm CDMA Technologies) generated $8.1 billion in revenue, with a gross margin of 27%, driven by growth in automotive and IoT sectors [9][28]. - The QTL segment (Qualcomm Technology Licensing) reported revenue of $1.3 billion, with a gross margin of 70%, aligning with expectations [12][28]. Business Segment Performance - The smartphone business generated $5.9 billion in revenue, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase, supported by strong sales in high-end Android devices [10][28]. - The automotive business reached $811 million in revenue, marking a significant increase and showcasing Qualcomm's commitment to this sector [11][30]. - The IoT segment's revenue was $1.4 billion, indicating a slowdown but with expectations for recovery driven by AI applications [3][19][27]. Future Guidance - Qualcomm anticipates Q3 FY2024 revenue between $9.5 billion and $10.3 billion, with adjusted EPS of $2.45 to $2.65, indicating strong growth prospects [19][21]. - The company projects QCT revenue for Q3 FY2024 to be between $8.1 billion and $8.7 billion, with growth in mobile and IoT sectors expected [20][29]. - For the fiscal year 2024, Qualcomm expects a revenue increase of approximately 50% and an operating expense of around $2.2 billion [23][29].

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2024 年 08 月 01 日 高通（NASDAQ:QCOM） FY24Q3 业绩实现稳健增长，终端侧 AI 变革持续推进 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|---------------------------------|------------| | 财务指标 | FY2022A | FY2023A | FY2024E | FY2025E | FY2026E | 买入（维持评级） | | | 营业收入（百万美元） | 44,200.00 | 35,820.00 | 38,560.23 | 42,786.43 | 46,222.18 | 股票信息 | | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 31.68 | -18.96 | 7.65 | 10.96 | 8.03 | | | | 归母净利润（百万美元） | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Qualcomm (QCOM, US) [2][10]. Core Insights - Qualcomm's automotive business growth exceeded expectations, with strong demand in the automotive market and a positive long-term outlook driven by advancements in smart driving and edge AI [1][2]. - The company reported Q3 FY24 revenue of $9.39 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and net profit of $2.129 billion, up 18% year-on-year [2][10]. - The revenue forecast for FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026 has been adjusted to $38.445 billion, $42.964 billion, and $47.135 billion respectively, with net profits projected at $11.281 billion, $13.055 billion, and $14.412 billion [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - Q3 FY24 revenue and net profit surpassed expectations, with revenue at $9.39 billion and net profit at $2.129 billion [2][10]. - The QCT segment generated $8.069 billion in revenue, with mobile and automotive segments contributing $5.899 billion and $0.811 billion respectively [2][10]. 2. Segment Performance - The automotive segment saw a remarkable year-on-year growth of 87%, significantly exceeding market expectations [2][10]. - Mobile revenue growth returned to double digits, with a year-on-year increase of over 50% in China OEM revenue [2][10]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a target price adjustment to $231, based on a FY2025 Forward P/E of 20X, leading to a target market capitalization of $227 billion [2][10]. - The overall outlook remains positive, with expectations of continued growth driven by the integration of AI across all business lines [2][10].

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm reported strong fiscal Q3 results but provided weak guidance for the upcoming December quarter, leading to a significant drop in its stock price despite analysts maintaining a positive outlook due to AI developments [1][3]. Financial Performance - Qualcomm's adjusted EPS for Q3 was $2.33, surpassing the expected $2.25 per share [1]. - The company's revenue reached $9.39 billion, exceeding the consensus estimate of $9.22 billion [1]. - Net income for the quarter was $2.13 billion, or $1.88 per share, compared to $1.8 billion, or $1.60 per share, in the same quarter last year [2]. Strategic Developments - CEO Cristiano Amon emphasized the successful execution of Qualcomm's growth and diversification strategy, particularly highlighting the launch of Snapdragon X Series solutions for personal computers [2]. - These new semiconductors are expected to provide superior performance, power efficiency, and personalized AI experiences [2]. Market Outlook - Despite the fiscal Q3 beat, Qualcomm's stock fell over 9% due to management's guidance of mid-single-digit growth for the December quarter, which disappointed investors expecting double-digit growth [3]. - Analysts from Piper Sandler noted that Qualcomm's Q3 results and Q4 guidance exceeded expectations, driven by strength in Android and upcoming growth with modem-only customers [3]. Analyst Sentiment - Piper Sandler raised its price target for Qualcomm from $185 to $205 per share, maintaining an "overweight" rating, while the consensus view is a moderate buy with an average price target of $207.60 per share [4]. - Analysts believe that over half of all PCs will be AI-capable by 2027, positioning Qualcomm favorably in the long term [4].