W 华尔街见闻 | 时间 | | 内容 | 预期 前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2月2日 周一 | | | | | | 数据 | 09:45 | 中国 1月RatingDog制造业PMI | 50.1 | | | 17:00 | | 欧元区 1月制造业PMI终值 | | 49.4 | | 23:00 | | 美国 1月ISM制造业指数 | 48.3 | 47.9 | | 待定 | | 芝商所CME再上调金银交易保证金:黄金保证金率从6% 升至8%,白银从11%升至15% | | | | 待定 | | 中国2月2日起对威士忌酒实施5%的进口暂定税率 | | | | 事件 | 待定 | 伊朗地缘事件持续发酵（全周事件） | | | | 待定 | | 2月是"Al大战"之月,国内外科技巨头动作频频(全周事 件) | | | | 待定 | | 今年APEC第一次高官会于2月1日至10日广州举行 | | | | 待定 | | 春运2月2日开始、3月13日结束 | | | | 财报 | | 迪士尼 | | | | 2月3日 周二 | | | | | | 数据 | 11: ...

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm is set to report its first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings on February 4, with revenue and earnings estimates at $12.23 billion and $3.37 per share, respectively. However, earnings estimates for fiscal 2026 have declined by 1.2% to $12.00 per share over the past 60 days, and estimates for fiscal 2027 have also decreased from $12.60 to $12.33 per share [1][6]. Earnings Estimates - The current earnings estimates for Q1 fiscal 2026 stand at $3.37 per share, with revenue estimates at $12.23 billion. Over the past 60 days, earnings estimates have seen a decline of 1.23% for fiscal 2026 and 2.14% for fiscal 2027 [2][6]. - The earnings surprise history shows an average surprise of 6% over the last four quarters, with the last reported quarter achieving a surprise of 4.2% [2][3]. Product Launches - Qualcomm launched AI200 and AI250 chip-based AI accelerator cards and racks during the fiscal first quarter, which are expected to boost revenues due to their advanced features for data centers [7]. - The company also introduced the Qualcomm Dragonwing IQ-X Series, an industrial-grade processor aimed at enhancing smart manufacturing, which is likely to contribute to higher revenues [8]. Regulatory Challenges - Qualcomm is facing antitrust probes in China, which could impact its operations and revenue, as the country represents a significant portion of its market. The investigation stems from Qualcomm's failure to notify Chinese regulators about its acquisition of Autotalks [9][10]. - The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China pose additional risks to Qualcomm's performance, particularly given its substantial revenue dependence on the Chinese market [10][15]. Market Performance - Over the past year, Qualcomm's stock has declined by 12%, underperforming the industry growth of 41.5%, with competitors like Broadcom and Hewlett Packard showing significant gains [11]. - From a valuation perspective, Qualcomm's shares are trading at a forward P/E ratio of 12.57, which is lower than the industry average of 33.44 and its historical mean of 16.84, indicating a relatively cheaper valuation [13]. Strategic Focus - Qualcomm aims to maintain its leadership in 5G and mobile connectivity through innovative product launches, including AI chips and industrial processors [14]. - Despite its efforts in AI, Qualcomm faces challenges in sustaining operations in China due to escalating tariffs and regulatory scrutiny, which may affect its long-term viability in the region [15][16].

Core Insights - Counterpoint Research predicts that MediaTek will lead the global smartphone SoC market in 2025 with a shipment share of 34.4%, followed by Qualcomm (25.1%), Apple (18.1%), Unisoc (12.1%), and Samsung (5.7%) [1] - The global smartphone SoC market is expected to slow down in 2026, with a projected year-on-year decline in shipments of 7% [1] - Despite the overall decline in shipments, the market is shifting towards higher-end products, with one in three smartphones expected to sell for over $500 by 2026 [4] Market Dynamics - The rise in storage prices poses a significant challenge for the smartphone industry, particularly affecting entry-level products priced below $150 [4] - Companies with in-house SoC capabilities, such as Samsung, Google, Huawei, and Xiaomi, are better positioned to navigate market challenges compared to those reliant on 4G and entry-level 5G SoCs [4] - OEMs are adjusting their product offerings and exploring cloud offloading strategies amid ongoing supply constraints [5] Technological Advancements - Leading high-end smartphone SoC manufacturers are expected to transition from 3nm to 2nm process nodes by 2026, with Samsung already set to launch the first 2nm smartphone SoC, Exynos 2600, in December 2025 [5] - The smartphone SoC market is anticipated to achieve double-digit revenue growth in 2026, driven by ongoing premiumization, rising storage prices, and the rapid adoption of AI features in smartphones [5] AI Integration - By 2026, edge AI performance is expected to reach around 100 TOPS, with nearly 90% of high-end smartphones supporting edge AI capabilities [6] - Mid-range smartphones priced between $100 and $500 may increasingly rely on cloud-based AI processing to manage costs amid ongoing pressure from storage prices [6]

The San Diego, California-based Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) has entered 2026 as a diversified artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor player and not just a handset company. It develops and commercializes wireless technologies such as 3G/4G/5G connectivity, high-performance low-power computing, and on-device AI. Commanding a market cap of approximately $163.5 billion, it supplies semiconductors and software for mobile devices, automotive systems, Internet of Things (IoT), consumer electronics, industr ...

Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM) is among Goldman Sachs’ top semiconductor stock picks. On January 21, 2026, Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ:QCOM) said it plans to release its first-quarter fiscal 2026 financial results on February 4, 2026. Qualcomm (QCOM) Faces Industry Headwinds as It Expands Beyond Smartphones Earlier on January 16, Qualcomm Incorporated announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.89 per share, to be paid on March 26 this year. All shareholders on record at the close of business March ...

Group 1 - Despite a projected 7% year-on-year decline in global smartphone chip shipments in 2026, market revenue is expected to grow robustly in double digits due to increased semiconductor content per device and rising average selling prices (ASP) [1] - The core challenge for shipment volume is the rising memory prices, as foundries and memory suppliers prioritize high-margin HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) to support data center expansion, leading to a shortage of standard memory [1] - The low-end smartphone market, particularly those priced below $150, is most directly impacted by cost pressures, while brands with in-house chip capabilities show stronger resilience [1] Group 2 - The high-end smartphone market remains strong, with nearly one-third of smartphones sold in 2026 expected to be priced over $500, benefiting companies like Apple and Qualcomm [1] - Samsung is expected to solidify its position in the high-end market with the launch of its first 2nm smartphone chip, Exynos 2600, ahead of the Galaxy S26 series [2] - The rapid adoption of generative AI (GenAI) is driving up device prices, with flagship smartphones expected to achieve peak AI computing power of 100 TOPS by 2026, while mid-range models will rely more on cloud-based AI processing due to memory cost pressures [2] Group 3 - MediaTek's market share stands at 34.0% with an 8% year-on-year decline in shipments [4] - Qualcomm holds a market share of 24.7% with a 9% year-on-year decline in shipments [4] - Apple's market share is 18.3% with a 6% year-on-year decline in shipments [4] - Unisoc's market share is 11.2% with a 14% year-on-year decline in shipments [4] - Samsung's market share is 6.6% with a 7% year-on-year increase in shipments [4]

Core Viewpoint - Qualcomm (QCOM) is positioned as an attractive investment opportunity due to its high cash yield, strong fundamentals, and discounted valuation [1] Current Developments - QCOM shares are trading at a notably discounted P/S (Price-to-Sales) ratio compared to its 3-month and 2-year peaks, as well as lower than its 3-year average [3] - The automotive division of Qualcomm is experiencing robust growth, with a design pipeline valued at $45 billion and over 75 million vehicles equipped with Snapdragon Digital Chassis [5] - Qualcomm is expanding into AI PCs, with 150 Snapdragon designs planned for 2026, focusing on on-device AI, contributing to a 10% year-on-year revenue increase in Q4 FY2025 [5] Strong Fundamentals - Qualcomm boasts a free cash flow yield of 7.8%, an operating margin of 28.0% over the past 12 months, and a revenue growth of 13.7% over the last year [11] - The current valuation shows QCOM trading at 30% below its 2-year high and 16% below its 1-month high, with a lower P/S ratio than its 3-year average [11]

The market expects Qualcomm (QCOM) to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended December 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on February 4, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better ...

Group 1: Price Increases in the Storage Market - The storage market is experiencing a price surge, with multiple manufacturers continuing to raise prices, affecting not only storage chips but also foundry and packaging processes, as well as passive components [1][4] - Companies like Zhongwei Semiconductor and Guokai Micro have announced price increases for their products, with adjustments ranging from 15% to 80% [2] - The ongoing price increases are expected to create a selection process among storage manufacturers, focusing on long-term partnerships with clients who can generate premium products [5] Group 2: Impact on Smartphone Market - The smartphone market is facing challenges due to rising storage costs, which may lead manufacturers to seek cost reductions in other core components [3][6] - Major smartphone brands are adjusting their business plans downward to force other component suppliers to lower prices, particularly in the AMOLED panel segment [6] - The price increases in storage components are likely to affect the bill of materials (BOM), leading to potential price hikes for smartphones priced under $100, while higher-end models may manage costs through configuration adjustments [5][6] Group 3: New Device Trends - The smartphone industry is evolving with new device forms such as foldable screens and smart glasses, which are expected to play a crucial role in the next AI era [3][8] - The foldable smartphone market is projected to grow significantly, especially with Apple's anticipated entry, which could increase global shipments to 25 million units by 2026 [9][11] - New hardware developments, including AI glasses and handheld imaging devices, are gaining traction, with expectations for rapid iteration and product launches in 2026 [12][13] Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Future Outlook - The competition in the smartphone industry is increasingly focused on the intersection of AI and hardware, with companies needing to identify real user scenarios to build differentiated products [13] - The ability to navigate supply chain fluctuations and innovate in product design will be critical for success in the evolving market landscape [13]

随着无需向云端发送敏感数据、以隐私为先的企业级人工智能需求日益增长， SpotDraft 已从高通风险投资公司获得 800 万美元战略 B 轮扩展融资，以扩 展其面向受监管法律工作流程的端侧合同审评技术。 这家初创公司告诉 TechCrunch ，本轮追加投资使 SpotDraft 的估值达到约 3.8 亿美元，几乎是其去年 2 月完成 5400 万美元 B 轮融资后 1.9 亿美元投后估 值的一倍。 在受监管的行业中，各企业迅速开始试验生成式人工智能，但隐私、安全和数据治理方面的担忧仍在减缓敏感工作流程的采用速度 ——尤其是在法律领 域，因为合同可能包含特权信息、知识产权、定价和交易条款。行业研究持续指出 ，数据安全和隐私是专业服务领域更广泛部署生成式人工智能的关键障 碍，这促使像 SpotDraft 这样的供应商寻求将核心合同智能保留在用户设备而非通过云端处理的架构。 在高通的 2025 年 Snapdragon 峰会上， SpotDraft 展示了其 VerifAI 工作流全程在 Snapdragon X Elite 驱动的笔记本电脑上运行，无需网络连接即可执行合 同审评和编辑，同时将文档保留在本地设备 ...