Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing's stock experienced a dramatic rise followed by a significant decline, raising questions about its future performance and potential as an investment opportunity [1][2]. Company Overview - Rigetti Computing specializes in quantum computing, producing both modular and non-modular quantum processing units (QPUs) and offering a cloud-based platform for developers to create quantum algorithms [6]. - The company employs superconducting loops to achieve quantum states, but its systems require cryogenic refrigeration, which increases size and operational costs [5]. Financial Performance - Rigetti's revenue grew by 60% in 2022 but saw a decline of 8% in 2023 and 10% in 2024, with expectations of a further 30% drop to $7.6 million in 2025 [7][8]. - The company's annual net loss increased from $72 million in 2022 to $201 million in 2024, with projections of a loss widening to $215 million in 2025 [9]. Market Position and Competition - Rigetti faces intense competition from major players like IBM and Google, which utilize similar technologies, as well as IonQ, which offers alternative systems that do not require cryogenic refrigeration [8]. - The expiration of key contracts, such as with the U.S. National Quantum Initiative, has contributed to Rigetti's revenue challenges [8]. Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, Rigetti anticipates significant growth in computing power, aiming to deploy systems with over 100 qubits by early 2026 and over 1,000 qubits by the end of 2027 [10]. - Analysts project a revenue increase of 169% to $20.5 million in 2026 and 124% to $45.8 million in 2027, alongside expectations of narrowing annual net losses [10]. Stock Valuation - Rigetti's stock, even after a significant decline, is valued at $8.3 billion, which is 182 times its projected 2027 sales, indicating a potentially overvalued position relative to its growth prospects [12]. - The company's market cap reached $18.3 billion at its peak, reflecting an unsustainable valuation of 2,408 times its projected revenue for 2025 [11]. Risks and Challenges - Rigetti has missed its initial target for launching a 100+ qubit system, and any further delays could hinder its ability to compete effectively in the market [13]. - The company has increased its outstanding shares by 160% over the past three years, leading to dilution that may continue to affect stock value [12].

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) stock has seen a remarkable 151% increase over the past year, but recent performance indicates a reassessment of future upside potential due to a weaker third-quarter performance marked by declining revenues and lower gross margins [1][6] - The company has secured new contracts and partnerships, including a multi-year agreement with the Air Force Research Laboratory, while reaffirming its technological roadmap towards larger qubit systems by 2026 and 2027 [2][8][10] Financial Performance - RGTI's revenues for the third quarter fell to $1.9 million, an 18% year-over-year decline, primarily due to a funding gap related to the National Quantum Initiative and inconsistent government contract awards [13] - Gross margins have compressed to 21%, driven by a higher proportion of lower-margin contracts, while operating expenses rose to $21 million due to increased R&D investments and compensation costs [14] Competitive Landscape - Rigetti faces competition from companies like IonQ, which is gaining traction with trapped-ion technology, and D-Wave Quantum, which focuses on enterprise use cases [3] - Quantum Computing Inc. is positioning itself around software and government solutions, presenting a different risk-reward profile compared to Rigetti's hardware-focused strategy [3] Strategic Developments - The company is expanding its ecosystem through partnerships, including a memorandum of understanding with India's C-DAC and the deployment of a 9-qubit Novera system at Montana State University, which may enhance future research collaborations [9] - Rigetti's roadmap includes plans for a 100-plus qubit system with high fidelity metrics, which will be crucial for maintaining investor confidence as the company approaches its 2026 milestones [10] Valuation Concerns - RGTI's stock is considered overvalued, with a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 22.38X, significantly higher than the industry average of 6.1X, indicating potential concerns regarding its current valuation [15] Investment Outlook - The company is viewed as a speculative investment in the quantum computing sector, with tangible progress on its technology roadmap but an unsettled financial profile [18] - The period leading up to 2026-2027 will be critical for Rigetti, as its ability to convert technological advancements into sustainable revenue growth will be essential for maintaining investor confidence [19]

Core Viewpoint - Quantum computing stocks, including Rigetti, D-Wave, and IonQ, have seen significant returns over the past three years, but their valuations are bubble-like and likely to collapse by 2026 due to a lack of corresponding sales and earnings growth [1][12]. Group 1: Market Overview - Quantum computing is currently a microscopic market, with sales projected to reach $4.2 billion by 2030, compared to the AI market, which is expected to total $1.8 trillion, making AI 425 times larger [8]. - General-purpose quantum computers are estimated to be a decade or two away from being useful for most enterprises, with experts suggesting that tens of thousands to millions of physical qubits will be necessary for practical applications [2][3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Rigetti Computing's shares have increased by 3,210%, D-Wave Quantum's shares by 1,970%, and IonQ's shares by 1,290% over the past three years [5]. - Rigetti specializes in superconducting quantum computing with plans to launch 1,000-qubit systems by the end of 2027, while D-Wave focuses on quantum annealing with 5,000 qubits in its most advanced systems, and IonQ specializes in trapped-ion quantum computing with a goal of 20,000 qubits by 2028 [6]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - Rigetti shares trade at 928 times sales, D-Wave at 362 times sales, and IonQ at 150 times sales, with projected revenue growth rates of 124%, 69%, and 84% annually through 2027, respectively [13]. - The current valuations of these quantum computing stocks are significantly higher than the most expensive stocks in the S&P 500, which trade at an average of 55 times sales, indicating that Rigetti would need to fall 94%, D-Wave 84%, and IonQ 63% to align with those valuations [11].

Group 1 - Quantum computing is a leading investment theme alongside artificial intelligence, attracting significant investor interest due to its potential to revolutionize the tech sector and the global economy [1] - Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) has experienced a remarkable increase of 2,500% since January 2024, with a current market cap of approximately $8 billion, indicating substantial growth potential if quantum computing gains traction [2] - The potential for Rigetti to transform a $10,000 investment into $1 million suggests a market cap increase to around $837 billion, highlighting the long-term investment horizon required for such returns [3][8] Group 2 - Rigetti's business model presents significant opportunities due to the ability of quantum computing to solve complex problems more efficiently, positioning the company at the forefront of the quantum computing revolution [5] - The quantum computing market is projected to reach $20 billion by 2030, a significant increase from nearly $3 billion in 2024, indicating growth potential despite the market still being relatively small [6] - Achieving a 100x return on investment for Rigetti may take decades, emphasizing the long-term nature of investments in this sector [7]

Core Insights - Investor optimism towards quantum computing is at a new high as of 2026, driven by technological advancements and strong stock performance in 2025 [1][5] - D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) saw a remarkable 211% increase in share price in 2025, while Rigetti Computing (RGTI) experienced a 45% gain, both outperforming NVIDIA's 38.8% increase [1][2][9] - The global quantum computing market is expected to grow from approximately $0.8 billion in 2025 to around $1.08 billion in 2026, indicating a robust CAGR of about 35% over the next decade [6][7] Company Performance - D-Wave Quantum reported a 100% year-over-year revenue growth and a 156% increase in gross profit, ending Q3 2025 with over $836 million in cash [9][12] - Rigetti Computing achieved 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity and increased cash resources to approximately $575 million, supporting its R&D and commercialization efforts [9][15] - Both companies are expected to see significant earnings and revenue growth in 2026, with D-Wave projected to grow earnings by 7% and revenue by 61.1%, while Rigetti is expected to see earnings growth of 74.3% and revenue growth of 197.6% [13][16] Market Trends - The quantum computing market is anticipated to witness a CAGR approaching 41.8% through 2030, driven by hardware deployments and expanding software ecosystems [7] - Major technology platforms like IBM and Google are making significant advancements in quantum hardware, which is crucial for the sector's growth [8][10] - The involvement of quantum enablers such as Intel and NVIDIA is increasing, providing essential infrastructure for the integration of quantum systems into practical applications [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Quantum computing is an emerging technology with significant potential, but current companies in the sector are facing high valuations and substantial cash burn, making them speculative investments [1][7][17]. Company Summaries - IonQ has a market cap of approximately $16 billion, with projected revenues of $106 million to $110 million in 2025, resulting in a price-to-sales ratio of 145. The company expects a loss of $206 million to $216 million for the year [1][3]. - Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum are valued at less than $10 billion each, generating only a few million dollars in revenue per quarter, indicating speculative valuations [1][3]. - IonQ reported a net loss of $1.05 billion in Q3 with revenues just under $40 million, highlighting the cash burn issue faced by these companies [8]. Industry Insights - The quantum computing sector is compared to the AI industry, which has seen companies with market caps exceeding $1 trillion. If quantum computing stocks achieve similar success, they could potentially generate significant returns for investors [2][6]. - Current conditions in the quantum computing sector are reminiscent of the space exploration industry in 2021, where initial optimism led to significant crashes [14][15]. - The commercialization of quantum computing technology is expected to take several years, with optimistic forecasts suggesting viability by 2030 [10][11]. Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to monitor quantum computing stocks carefully, as the current high valuations may not reflect future performance. Many years of optimistic results are already factored into share prices [12][13]. - Investing in a quantum computing ETF could provide exposure to the sector while mitigating risks associated with individual stocks [9]. - The potential for major returns exists, but the speculative nature of these stocks means that investors should be cautious and consider other opportunities in the meantime [17][18].

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) recognizes the need for advanced chip manufacturing capabilities to enhance quantum performance, particularly for achieving fidelities above 99.9% [1][10] - The company is exploring various strategic options, including partnerships with experienced foundries, participation in U.S. government-backed programs, and the potential development of a modern 200-300mm facility [2][10] - The need for a new fabrication facility is viewed as a strategic opportunity rather than a risk, as it could strengthen Rigetti's competitive position and improve manufacturing processes [3][4] Company Updates - Quantum Computing Inc. (QUBT) has successfully shipped its first commercial entangled-photon source to a research institution in South Korea, marking a significant step in its telecom C-band photonic platform rollout [5] - QCi is increasing manufacturing at its Tempe, AZ, foundry and expanding into quantum sensing and cybersecurity, transitioning from research to commercial execution [6] - D-Wave Quantum (QBTS) has launched its Advantage2 annealing system commercially, offering over 4,400 qubits and improved performance metrics, available to users in over 40 countries [7][8] Financial Performance - RGTI shares have increased by 71.6% over the past six months, contrasting with an 8.3% decline in the industry [9] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 20.95, which is above the industry average, and carries a Value Score of F [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates a projected 88.9% decline in RGTI's earnings for 2025 compared to the previous year [12]

Company Overview - Rigetti Computing, Inc. is a pioneer in full-stack quantum computing, operating quantum computers over the cloud since 2017 [2] - The company serves global enterprise, government, and research clients through its Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services platform [2] - In 2021, Rigetti began selling on-premises quantum computing systems with qubit counts ranging from 24 to 84 [2] - The company's 9-qubit Novera QPU was introduced in 2023, designed for high-performance, on-premises use [2] - Rigetti has developed the industry's first multi-chip quantum processor for scalable quantum computing systems [2] - The company designs and manufactures its chips in-house at Fab-1, the first dedicated and integrated quantum device manufacturing facility [2] Upcoming Events - CEO Dr. Subodh Kulkarni and CFO Jeff Bertelsen will host one-on-one meetings at the 28th Annual Needham Growth Conference on January 13, 2026 [1] - Dr. Kulkarni will participate in a fireside chat during the same event [1] - Investors can view a live webcast of the event and a replay will be available for 90 days following the conclusion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing has experienced a significant decline in stock price, dropping 60% from its peak of $56 in October, indicating that the hype surrounding the stock may not be supported by fundamental improvements in the business [2][10]. Company Overview - Rigetti Computing is a quantum computing start-up with a current market cap of $7.8 billion and a stock price of $23.60, which has fluctuated between $5.95 and $58.15 over the past year [3]. - The company is focused on the hardware side of quantum computing, aiming to provide essential components for other enterprises to leverage this emerging technology [4][9]. Industry Context - Quantum computing is still largely theoretical, with significant advancements needed before it becomes commercially viable. Industry leaders like Alphabet and IBM estimate that practical quantum computers are still four to five years away [11]. - The potential of quantum computing lies in its ability to solve complex problems, which could lead to substantial shareholder value through applications in drug discovery, logistics, and more [4]. Financial Performance - Rigetti's third-quarter earnings report showed an 18% year-over-year revenue decline to $1.95 billion, with operating losses increasing to $20.5 billion, highlighting the challenges the company faces in covering its R&D expenses [10]. - The company's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio stands at 843, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average of 3.4, suggesting that the stock may still be overvalued [12]. Future Outlook - The timeline for quantum computing readiness is uncertain, with Rigetti likely not advancing faster than larger competitors, which raises questions about its ability to generate shareholder value in the near term [11][13]. - The company is positioned to manufacture its own chips in the U.S., which could provide political protection and opportunities similar to those of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing in traditional semiconductors [6].

Core Insights - The quantum computing sector is rapidly evolving, with IonQ and Rigetti Computing attracting investor attention due to their distinct strategies and performances in 2025 [2][4]. IonQ Highlights - IonQ reported significant business expansion in 2025, with a sharp year-over-year increase in quarterly revenues and record technical benchmarks, including a world-record 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity [7][10]. - The company achieved a cash position of $1.5 billion, which increased to $3.5 billion after a $2 billion equity raise, providing financial strength for future investments [8][10]. - IonQ's fifth-generation Tempo system is set to ship in 2026, demonstrating a computational space 36 quadrillion times larger than leading commercial superconducting systems [7]. Rigetti Highlights - Rigetti focused on superconducting quantum hardware, delivering modular quantum systems and expanding partnerships while investing heavily in infrastructure and R&D [3][12]. - The company aims to deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system by the end of 2025, with a roadmap targeting a 150+ qubit system by late 2026 and a 1,000+ qubit system by late 2027 [12][13]. - Rigetti exited the third quarter with approximately $600 million in cash and no debt, allowing for continued investment in its roadmap [13]. Financial Performance - Year-to-date, IonQ shares have risen 8.3%, while Rigetti's stock has soared 45.9% [6]. - IonQ's adjusted EBITDA loss was $48.9 million in Q3 2025, while Rigetti reported revenues of $1.9 million and an operating loss of $20.5 million in the same period [11][14]. - Estimates for IonQ's 2026 loss per share have declined to $1.74, indicating a 65.8% improvement from 2025, while Rigetti's estimates have worsened to a loss of $0.18 per share, reflecting a 74.3% improvement from 2025 [15][16]. Valuation Comparison - IonQ is trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 79.2X, higher than its five-year median of 76.1X, while Rigetti's P/S ratio is significantly higher at 220.28X [18]. Conclusion - IonQ is better positioned with faster commercial traction, record technical milestones, and a diversified quantum platform, supported by a strong cash balance of $3.5 billion [19]. Rigetti, while credible in its roadmap, has a smaller revenue base and is more dependent on future milestones [19].