Core Insights - Shopify reported a Q4 revenue growth of 31% year-over-year and a free cash flow margin of 19%, marking ten consecutive quarters of double-digit free cash flow margins [1][2] - For the full year 2025, Shopify achieved a revenue growth of 30%, which is 4 percentage points higher than 2024, and a free cash flow margin of 17% [2][3] - The company is focusing on AI commerce and expects 2026 to be a year of building and scaling for its merchants [2] Financial Performance - Q4 2025 GMV reached $123.841 billion, up from $94.460 billion in Q4 2024, representing a growth of 31% [3][4] - Q4 2025 revenue was $3.672 billion, compared to $2.812 billion in Q4 2024, also reflecting a 31% increase [3][4] - Gross profit for Q4 2025 was $1.693 billion, up from $1.352 billion in Q4 2024, indicating a growth of 25% [3][4] - Operating income for Q4 2025 was $631 million, compared to $465 million in Q4 2024, showing a growth of 36% [3][4] Growth Drivers - International revenue grew by 36% year-over-year, while offline revenue increased by 27% [5] - B2B GMV saw a significant growth of 96%, and Gross Payments Volume grew by 37% [5] - Shop Pay GMV experienced a growth of 62% [5] 2026 Outlook - For Q1 2026, Shopify expects revenue growth to be in the low-thirties percentage range year-over-year, similar to Q4 2025 [8] - Gross profit dollars are anticipated to grow at a high-twenties percentage rate year-over-year [8] - Free cash flow margin is expected to be in the low-to-mid teens, slightly below Q1 of 2025 [8] Share Repurchase Program - Shopify's Board of Directors has authorized a share repurchase program of up to $2 billion, which will commence on February 17, 2026 [9][28] - The program aims to execute repurchases through various means, including open-market purchases and privately negotiated transactions [9][28]

The employment report is expected to show an uptick in U.S. job growth despite a sluggish ‌labor market, due ⁠to tariff uncertainty ⁠and worker constraints amid tighter immigration enforcement. The data could temper expectations for the central bank's rate cuts, with retail sales stalling unexpectedly and raising the probability of an interest-rate reduction in April to 35.5% from the prior day's 32.2%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Markets still price in the first cut to take place in June, when ...

Economic Indicators - Nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +68,000 in January, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.4% [1] - Average hourly earnings are projected to rise by +0.3% month-over-month and +3.7% year-over-year in January [1] - Initial weekly unemployment claims are anticipated to decrease by -7,000 to 224,000 [1] - Existing home sales in January are expected to decline by -4.3% month-over-month to 4.16 million [1] - January CPI is expected to rise by +2.5% year-over-year, with core CPI also expected to increase by +2.5% year-over-year [1] Retail Sales and Employment Costs - US December retail sales were unchanged month-over-month, falling short of expectations of +0.4% [2] - The employment cost index for Q4 rose by +0.7% quarter-over-quarter, which is the smallest increase in 4.5 years and below the expected +0.8% [2] Stock Market Performance - Stock indexes experienced mixed trading, with the Dow Jones reaching a new all-time high while the S&P 500 closed down -0.33% and the Nasdaq down -0.56% [6][5] - The broader market initially found support from weaker-than-expected retail sales and employment cost index reports, which lowered bond yields [5] Earnings Season Insights - Over half of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, with 78% beating expectations [7] - S&P earnings growth is expected to rise by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth [7] - Excluding the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, Q4 earnings are projected to increase by +4.6% [7] Interest Rates and Bond Market - The markets are pricing in a 23% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting [8] - The 10-year T-note yield fell to a 3.5-week low of 4.13%, supported by weaker-than-expected economic reports [9] Sector Performance - AI-infrastructure stocks faced pressure, with Western Digital down more than -7% and other tech stocks also declining [12] - Wealth-management stocks dropped significantly, with Raymond James Financial down more than -8% due to concerns over AI disruption [13] - Homebuilding stocks rose after the drop in mortgage rates, with Toll Brothers up more than +6% [14] Company-Specific Developments - Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co reported Q4 adjusted EPS of 39 cents, below the consensus of 49 cents, leading to a decline of more than -14% [15] - Incyte forecasted dull-year total net product revenue of $4.77 billion to $4.94 billion, causing a drop of more than -8% [16] - Spotify reported a record 38 million monthly active users in Q4, leading to a rise of more than +17% [17]

Shopify (SHOP) shares have pushed meaningfully higher heading into the company’s Q4 earnings on Feb. 11, with options traders indicating significant volatility ahead. Analysts expect the e-commerce giant to earn $0.41 on a per-share basis in its fourth quarter, which would represent a little more than 20% growth year-over-year. More News from Barchart Despite the recent surge, Shopify stock remains down about 25% versus its December high. www.barchart.com Where Options Data Suggests Shopify Stock Is ...

A MoffettNathanson analyst thinks AI could be a benefit to Shopify's business, rather than a hinderance. ...

JP Morgan analyst Reginald L. Smith reiterated the Overweight rating on the stock, with a price forecast of $180.Smith said key watch items include first-quarter volume, profit, cash-flow guidance, and commentary on growth and expenses.The analyst also flagged agentic commerce adoption and European Shop Pay growth as important areas to monitor.Smith said e-commerce payment volumes slowed due to tough comparisons, with Street estimates implying further GMV and GPV deceleration.JP Morgan projects Shopify to p ...

Shopify stock price has suffered a sharp reversal this year, moving from a high of $182 in October last year to the current $118. This article explores what to expect as the company prepares to publis... ...

Rowan Street Capital, an investment management company, released its Q4 2025 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. Rowan Street generated solid results in 2025 but underperformed the S&P 500 Index. The Composite returned +11.1% (net) in 2025 compared to +17.9% for the Index. Rowan Street delivered a cumulative net return of +252% over the past three years, compared to +78% for the Index during the same period. It is a concentrated strategy with a focus on long-term compounding. 2025 ...

MoffettNathanson upgraded Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ:SHOP) from Neutral to Buy, citing an attractive entry point at $118.40.Shopify anticipates a revenue increase in the mid-to-high 20% range for Q4 2025, with Zacks Consensus Estimate projecting revenues to reach $3.58 billion, a 27.3% growth.The consensus estimate for Shopify's earnings is set at 50 cents per share, indicating a 13.6% increase from the previous year.Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ:SHOP) is a leading e-commerce platform that enables businesses to create onl ...

根据最新披露的美股13F报告显示，百年巨头柏基投资（Baillie Gifford）在2025年第四季度的持仓总市值为1203.4亿美元，较三季度的1350亿美元缩水约 10.8%。 这一降幅除了受部分成长股高位回调影响外，更多源于其整体"净卖出"的操作态势。 重仓座次方面，英伟达虽然连续第二个季度被削减股数（本季减持约5.76%），但仍以6.80%的占比蝉联第一大重仓股。 本文来自：聪明投资者 紧随其后的是拉美电商龙头美客多（MELI），柏基在四季度对其进行了4.95%的反向增持，使其占比升至5.83%，进一步巩固了其作为组合压舱石的地 位。 前五大重仓的其余席位由亚马逊、Shopify和Sea Ltd占据，前十大重仓股合计占比高达43.4%。 除了英伟达，柏基还大幅减持了亚马逊、Shopify、Meta、Cloudflare等。 四季度引人注目的操作是大幅加仓谷歌，增持幅度高达166%。这一动作与伯克希尔去年三季度建仓谷歌的逻辑形成了有趣的互补，如果说巴菲特看重的 是谷歌的垄断护城河，那么柏基则更看好其在AI定制芯片及大规模算力上的成本优势。 当然，考虑到原本对于谷歌持股不高，这次加仓后柏基对谷歌持股市值 ...