Core Insights - Shopify Inc. (SHOP) stock has continued to rally since late 2023, despite a previous downgrade to "Hold" by an analyst [1]. Group 1: Company Analysis - The stock performance of Shopify Inc. has shown a significant upward trend, indicating strong market interest and potential investor confidence [1]. - The analyst has not held any stock or derivatives in Shopify but may consider initiating a long position in the near future, suggesting a potential shift in investment strategy [3]. Group 2: Investment Insights - The investment group Beyond the Wall Investing provides access to high-quality analysis and insights that are prioritized by institutional market participants, indicating a focus on informed decision-making in investment strategies [2].

Core Viewpoint - Baillie Gifford continues to focus on technology and growth sectors, maintaining a global perspective despite a reduction in total assets held to $120 billion, down $15 billion from the previous quarter [1]. Holdings Overview - As of Q4 2025, Baillie Gifford holds a total of 265 companies with assets amounting to $120 billion, reflecting a decrease of $15 billion from Q3 [1]. Top Holdings - The firm remains heavily invested in global technology and consumer giants, with a notable emphasis on Latin American e-commerce platform MercadoLibre, and Nvidia leading the portfolio, indicating confidence in the long-term potential of AI infrastructure [4]. Top Buys - Significant increases in holdings include: - Axon Enterprise (AXON) with an additional investment of $860 million - Medline Inc (MDLN) with $437 million - Rocket Lab (RKLB) with $399 million - Google-A (GOOGL) with $373 million - Duolingo (DUOL) with $357 million - The firm shows strong interest in vertical technology sectors, particularly in safety technology and education [5][6]. Top Sells - The firm has reduced its positions in: - Datadog Inc (DDOG) by $1.01 billion - Cloudflare (NET) by $990 million - Shopify (SHOP) by $680 million - BioNTech SE (BNTX) by $630 million - Meta Platforms (META) by $590 million - This indicates a strategic retreat from cloud computing and vaccine-related companies, likely based on valuation and growth switching logic [7][8]. New Positions - New investments include: - Medline Inc (MDLN) with $437 million - United Therapeutics (UTHR) with $157 million - MongoDB (MDB) with $112 million - BillionToOne (BLLN) with $104 million - Silvergate Capital (SVM) with $35 million - The new positions reflect Baillie Gifford's exploration in emerging fields such as rare disease treatment and databases, showcasing a commitment to long-term tracking in technology and healthcare [9][10].

Group 1 - Shopify Inc. plans to announce its financial results for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2025, before markets open on February 11, 2026 [1] - A conference call will be hosted by Shopify's management team to discuss the fourth-quarter and full-year results at 8:30 a.m. ET on February 11, 2026 [2] - The conference call will be available via webcast on Shopify's investor relations website, with an archived replay accessible after the call [2] Group 2 - Shopify provides essential internet infrastructure for commerce, facilitating the start, operation, and growth of businesses [3] - The platform supports sales across various channels, including online and in-store, and is utilized by millions of businesses in over 175 countries [3] - Notable brands using Shopify include Aldo, BarkBox, Carrier, Meta, Vuori, SKIMS, and Supreme [3]

Core Insights - Netalico has been promoted to Shopify Premier Partner, recognizing its extensive experience in complex replatforming for mid-market and enterprise brands [1] - The promotion highlights Netalico's role in driving agentic commerce adoption, where AI agents facilitate product discovery and purchasing [1] Company Overview - Founded in 2012 by Mark Lewis, Netalico specializes in complex replatforming, optimization, and agentic commerce readiness, focusing on long-term partnerships with mid-market and enterprise brands [1] - The agency has successfully migrated brands from various platforms, including Magento, BigCommerce, and Salesforce Commerce Cloud, emphasizing scalable systems for long-term growth [1] Industry Trends - The rise of agentic commerce is transforming product discovery, with AI systems increasingly influencing what products are surfaced and sold [1] - Shopify's integration with OpenAI's ChatGPT is a significant development, enabling in-chat product discovery and checkout, indicating a rapid shift in commerce dynamics [1] - The Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP), co-developed by Shopify and Google, aims to standardize interactions between AI agents and commerce systems, highlighting the importance of structured product data [1] Performance Metrics - Following its migration to Shopify Plus, Audio Advice achieved a 21% increase in overall revenue year-over-year, alongside improvements in site speed and operational efficiency [1]

Core Insights - SEON has announced a strategic partnership with Domaine to provide integrated fraud prevention solutions for Shopify merchants, enhancing revenue protection and customer experience [1][2] - The partnership aims to address the increasing need for sophisticated fraud prevention as more merchants migrate to Shopify, combining SEON's real-time fraud detection with Domaine's implementation expertise [2][3] Company Overview - SEON specializes in real-time fraud prevention and AML compliance, utilizing over 900 real-time, first-party data signals to stop fraudulent transactions before they affect sales [6] - Domaine is recognized as a leading global Shopify design and development partner, supporting over 100 brands and focusing on platform migrations and enterprise commerce enablement [5] Industry Context - The collaboration reflects a shift in the eCommerce landscape where fraud prevention is becoming a critical component of commerce infrastructure, rather than an afterthought [3] - As brands navigate complex platform migrations, fraud prevention is identified as a top priority, necessitating a balance between security and customer experience [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shopify has experienced a significant decline in stock performance despite benefiting from the ongoing shift towards e-commerce, primarily due to valuation concerns as its stock price has outpaced its fundamentals [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Shares of Shopify are down approximately 15% year to date after a more than 50% gain last year, raising questions about whether the previous rebound was excessive [2]. Group 2: Business Growth - Shopify reported a 32% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, supported by a corresponding growth in gross merchandise volume (GMV) [3]. - This growth rate represents an acceleration from the 31% revenue growth rate in Q2 and is significantly higher than the full year-over-year revenue growth rates of 21% in 2022 and 26% in 2023 [4]. - The company generated $507 million in free cash flow in Q3 with an 18% free cash flow margin, up from $422 million and a 16% margin in Q2 [5]. Group 3: AI Integration - Shopify is leveraging AI themes to enhance its business, with President Harley Finkelstein indicating that the company is entering a new era of "agentic commerce" where it is well-positioned to lead [6]. - The company has expanded its checkout experiences to popular AI platforms, including ChatGPT, Alphabet's AI Mode, and Microsoft's Copilot, which could support continued strong growth into 2026 [7].

Core Insights - Shopify Inc. has evolved over two decades into a highly respected platform within the e-commerce industry, showcasing significant growth and innovation [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Shopify is recognized as one of the most vaunted platforms in the e-commerce sector, indicating its strong market position and reputation [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment approach focuses on identifying attractive risk/reward opportunities that are supported by robust price action, aiming to generate alpha above the S&P 500 [1] - The strategy emphasizes avoiding overhyped and overvalued stocks while targeting beaten-down stocks with substantial recovery potential [1] - The investment group specializes in high-potential opportunities across various sectors, particularly in growth stocks with solid fundamentals and strong buying momentum [1]

Core Insights - Artificial intelligence (AI) is identified as the greatest investment opportunity of the current era, with a strong emphasis on the urgency to invest now [1][13] - The energy demands of AI technologies are highlighted, with data centers consuming as much energy as small cities, leading to concerns about power grid strain and rising electricity prices [2][3] Investment Opportunity - A specific company is presented as a critical player in the AI energy sector, owning essential energy infrastructure assets that are poised to benefit from the increasing energy demands of AI [3][7] - This company is described as a "toll booth" operator in the AI energy boom, collecting fees from energy exports and positioned to capitalize on the onshoring trend driven by tariffs [5][6] Financial Position - The company is noted for being debt-free and holding a significant cash reserve, amounting to nearly one-third of its market capitalization, which positions it favorably compared to other energy firms burdened by debt [8][10] - It also has a substantial equity stake in another AI-related company, providing investors with indirect exposure to multiple growth opportunities without the associated premium costs [9][10] Market Trends - The article discusses the broader trends of AI infrastructure supercycles, the onshoring boom, and a surge in U.S. LNG exports, indicating a favorable environment for the company's growth [14] - The influx of talent into the AI sector is expected to drive continuous innovation and advancements, reinforcing the importance of investing in AI [12] Conclusion - The company is positioned as a unique investment opportunity within the AI and energy sectors, with potential for significant returns as the demand for AI-driven energy solutions grows [11][15]

Performance Summary - AeroVironment, Inc. (NASDAQ:AVAV) decreased by 19.45% due to a stop work order from the US government on the SCAR program [1] - DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) fell by 14.4% after a judge allowed Massachusetts to block Kalshi from offering sports-related contracts [2] - Constellation Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:CEG) decreased by 10.38% with Wells Fargo analyst lowering the price forecast from $478 to $460 while maintaining an Overweight rating [3] - Applovin Corporation (NASDAQ:APP) fell by 14.68% following concerns raised in a CapitalWatch report [3] - Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT) slumped by 12.23% after reporting worse-than-expected fourth-quarter sales and issuing first-quarter adjusted EPS guidance below estimates [4] - Flutter Entertainment plc (NYSE:FLUT) fell by 13.07% with multiple analysts lowering their price forecast [4] - Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ:SHOP) decreased by 13.51% [4] - Talen Energy Corporation (NASDAQ:TLN) slumped by 6.05% while Wells Fargo analyst raised the price forecast from $445 to $506, maintaining an Overweight rating [5]

Core Viewpoint - The fourth quarter of 2025 experienced a sharp 5% sell-off followed by a quick recovery, with global stocks reaching all-time highs, influenced by concerns over a potential AI bubble and subsequent strong earnings from NVIDIA [4][5]. Portfolio Performance & Attribution - The Polen Global Growth Composite Portfolio returned -2.5% gross of fees and -2.7% net of fees in Q4 2025, underperforming the MSCI All Country World Index, which returned +3.3% [7]. - Top relative contributors included Eli Lilly, Alphabet, and Shopify, while Oracle, Paycom Software, and CoStar Group were the largest detractors [7][8]. - Eli Lilly's stock rallied over 40% in Q4 due to strong financial results and a favorable agreement on drug pricing, despite earlier concerns [8]. - Oracle's performance reversed from the previous quarter, primarily due to skepticism regarding its future revenue tied to OpenAI, impacting its stock negatively [9]. Portfolio Activity - New positions were initiated in Tencent Holdings and Spotify, while positions in Sage Group, Willis Towers Watson, ICON Plc, and Workday were eliminated to fund these investments [10][11]. - Tencent has shown consistent earnings growth of over 30% annually for the past three years, and its valuation is considered reasonable for sustainable revenue growth [11]. - Spotify is viewed as a leading streaming network with significant growth potential, expecting over 20% annual free cash flow growth for the next five years [12]. Outlook - The datacenter capital expenditure cycle is expected to continue, driven by increasing demand and supportive government policies, suggesting a favorable environment for growth in revenues and earnings for key players [17]. - The portfolio is positioned to deliver above-average earnings growth, with a focus on sectors outside of the AI and datacenter themes, ensuring resilience regardless of market drivers [18].