作 者 | Jack Elias 编译 | 华尔街大事件 Shopify（ NASDAQ： SHOP ）在2025财年第一季度取得了异常强劲的业绩，收入和营业利润 同比大幅增长。公司通过国际扩张和为平台商家打造新产品， 总体上良好地执行了其以长期增 长为导向的战略。 然而，尽管取得了稳步进展和财务业绩，但该股的估值似乎过高，如果投资者以当前价格水平 进行投资，未来几年的回报可能会低于平均水平。 Shopify 是全球领先的商务平台，致力于帮助不同规模的企业通过线上线下以及多种渠道进行 销售。该平台吸引了从创业者到企业客户等各类类型的所有者，涵盖整个业务生命周期。 他们的两个主要收入来源分为订阅解决方案和商家解决方案，前者通过分层月度计划和附加组 件提供经常性收入，后者基于商家活动水平。 上个季度，Shopify 在 B2B 领域的业务显著增长，GMV 同比增长 109%。这使得该公司能够 利用比 D2C 领域规模大得多的市场。 根据 Capital One 的数据，2024 年全球 B2B 电商市场 规模 约为 30.42 万亿美元，预计到 2029 年将增长至约 66.89 万亿美元，复合年增长率为 17. ...

Core Viewpoint - Shopify's stock has experienced a significant rally following positive news regarding U.S.-China trade tensions, despite a dip after its Q1 earnings report. The stock is up over 80% year-over-year and has shown modest gains for the year [1]. Financial Performance - In Q1, Shopify's revenue increased by 27% year-over-year to $2.36 billion, with subscription revenue rising 21% to $620 million and merchant solution revenue soaring 29% to $1.74 billion [3][5]. - Gross profit rose 22% to $1.17 billion, with adjusted earnings per share climbing 29% to $0.44, slightly above the consensus estimate of $0.43 [4][5]. - Gross merchandise volume (GMV) increased by 23% to $74.8 billion, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of GMV growth of 20% or more [4][5]. Growth Drivers - Business-to-business GMV grew by 109% year-over-year, while international GMV growth was 31%, and cross-border growth reached 15% [5]. - Shop Pay, Shopify's online checkout solution, saw GMV increase by 57%, expanding to 39 countries [6]. - The Shop App, which aggregates products from Shopify stores, experienced a GMV surge of 94% [6]. Customer Expansion - Shopify is successfully moving upmarket, adding notable enterprise customers such as Purple, Lilly Pulitzer, and Birkenstock, along with new Tapestry brands [7][12]. Future Outlook - Management forecasts Q2 revenue growth in the mid-20s percentage range, with gross profits expected to grow at a high-teens percentage rate, which is above analyst consensus for revenue but below for gross profit [8]. - The company is adapting to tariffs with new features, including a duty-inclusive tool and an AI tariff solution [9]. Investment Considerations - Shopify's strong growth and customer acquisition are reflected in its subscription revenue growth and Shop Pay adoption [11]. - The stock is currently trading at approximately 25.5 times projected gross profits, which may be considered high compared to similar companies like Toast, which trades at a gross profit multiple of 14 [13].

Group 1: Shopify - Shopify has shown significant growth potential, with a year-over-year revenue increase of 27% in Q1, up from 23% in the previous year [5] - The company operates a subscription-based business model, with subscription revenue growing by 21% year-over-year in Q1, accounting for 25% of total revenue [6] - Shopify's total gross merchandise volume reached $74 billion in Q1, indicating a massive long-term opportunity as clients capture less than 10% of online retail spending [8][9] - Analysts project Shopify's earnings to grow at an annualized rate of 32% over the next few years, supporting the potential for the share price to double by 2030 [9] Group 2: Uber Technologies - Uber Technologies has maintained strong growth, completing over 3 billion trips in Q1, an 18% increase year-over-year, with revenue growing by 17% to $11.5 billion [12] - The company's operating profit improved significantly from $172 million in Q1 2024 to over $1.2 billion in Q1 2025, indicating a turnaround in profitability [13] - Uber's user base reached 170 million monthly active platform consumers, a 14% increase from the previous year, enhancing its market position [14] - Analysts expect Uber's earnings to grow at an annualized rate of 28% in the coming years, with the stock potentially doubling by 2030 [16]

Group 1 - Shopify (NASDAQ: SHOP) reported strong results in Q1 of FY25, with significant year-over-year increases in revenue and operating income [1] - The company is effectively executing its long-term growth strategy, which includes expanding its offerings [1] Group 2 - The article does not provide any additional relevant content regarding the industry or company beyond the performance of Shopify [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The reduction of the "de minimis" tariff on low-value imports from China is seen as a positive development for small online businesses and companies like Shopify that support them [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Changes - The "de minimis" tariff on goods valued at $800 or less has been eliminated, which previously exempted these goods from tariffs [3]. - President Trump announced a reduction of the tariff on "de minimis" goods from 120% to 54%, with exemptions in place for 90 days as negotiations continue [4]. Group 2: Impact on Shopify - Although Shopify itself is not directly affected by the tariff changes, many of its small business customers could face increased costs due to the new tariff rates [3][5]. - The potential for higher costs for Shopify's customers could have a near-term impact on the company's earnings if the tariffs remain in place [5]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - For long-term investors, the current tariff situation is not a reason to avoid investing in Shopify, as the company is well-positioned to navigate the challenges posed by trade tensions [6].

Core Viewpoint - Shopify and Etsy are positioned as strong players in the e-commerce industry, with both companies expected to benefit from significant market growth projected to reach $21.22 trillion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 15.8% from 2025 to 2030 [2] Group 1: Shopify (SHOP) - Shopify's Merchant Solutions generated $1.74 billion in revenue in Q1 2025, accounting for 73.7% of total revenues, driven by user-friendly tools like Shop Pay and Shopify Pay Instalments [3][5] - Shop Pay processed $22 billion in Gross Merchandise Value in Q1 2025, reflecting a 57% year-over-year increase, with adoption by major brands enhancing Shopify's portfolio [4] - Shopify is investing in AI-driven tools to improve customer engagement and streamline operations, with partnerships including TikTok, Amazon, and PayPal expected to expand its merchant base [5] Group 2: Etsy (ETSY) - Etsy is leveraging AI for enhanced personalization and has seen strong mobile app performance, with the app accounting for 44.5% of total Gross Merchandise Sales in Q1 2025 [6][7] - The introduction of an AI-powered discovery feature in April 2025 allows shoppers to browse curated collections, enhancing the shopping experience [8] - Etsy's subsidiary, Depop, is contributing significantly to growth, particularly in the U.S. market, with strong performance in gifting categories during seasonal events [10] Group 3: Price Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Shopify and Etsy shares have declined by 13.7% and 11.3%, respectively, due to a challenging macroeconomic environment [12] - Shopify shares are currently overvalued with a Value Score of F, while Etsy shares are considered cheap with a Value Score of B, trading at 10.34X and 1.75X forward Price/Sales, respectively [15] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Shopify's 2025 earnings is $1.44 per share, indicating a 10.77% year-over-year increase, while Etsy's estimate is $1.77 per share, reflecting a 24.68% year-over-year decline [17]

Trading around or near the time of a company’s quarterly earnings can be daunting, since volatility is usually near the top of the range during the days leading up to and right after the announcements are made. However, some swings take place during this short period, giving investors the rare opportunity to get behind a significant move, one that carries a favorable risk-to-reward setup to be taken advantage of. Shopify TodaySHOPShopify$103.64 +11.87 (+12.93%) 52-Week Range$48.56▼$129.38P/E Ratio66.68Pric ...

About this content About Emily Jarvie Emily began her career as a political journalist for Australian Community Media in Hobart, Tasmania. After she relocated to Toronto, Canada, she reported on business, legal, and scientific developments in the emerging psychedelics sector before joining Proactive in 2022. She brings a strong journalism background with her work featured in newspapers, magazines, and digital publications across Australia, Europe, and North America, including The Examiner, The Advocate, ...

Core Viewpoint - Shopify Inc reported strong fiscal first-quarter results with a revenue growth of 26.8% to $2.36 billion, surpassing analyst expectations, although adjusted EPS of $0.25 fell slightly short of the consensus estimate [1][2]. Financial Performance - Quarterly revenue increased by 26.8% to $2.36 billion, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of $2.33 billion [1]. - Adjusted EPS rose by 25% to $0.25, but missed the analyst consensus estimate of $0.26 [1]. - Gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew by 22.8% to $74.75 billion, while merchant solutions revenue increased by 28.9% to $1.74 billion [2]. Market Trends and Guidance - The second-quarter guidance anticipates continued strength in GMV, projecting mid-20s revenue growth and high-teens gross profit growth [4]. - Analysts noted that Shopify's GMV multiplier as a percentage of U.S. eCommerce growth remains strong, indicating potential market share gains even amid a slowdown in U.S. eCommerce growth [7]. International Expansion - Shopify is benefiting from the globalization of commerce, with significant market share gains abroad, particularly in the North American market [6]. - Cross-border trade constitutes 15% of GMV, with 1% of overall GMV related to imports from China [9]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Piper Sandler maintains a Neutral rating with a price target of $104, while Goldman Sachs holds a Buy rating with a revised price target of $120, down from $130 [11]. Margin Insights - Free cash flow margins are expected to remain in the mid-teens range, with a decline in these margins viewed negatively [5]. - Pressure on gross margins is anticipated in 2025 due to various factors, including the PayPal partnership and the impact of longer paid trial lengths [12].

Core Insights - Shopify reported first-quarter 2025 non-GAAP earnings of 25 cents per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.85%, but showing a 25% increase year over year [1] - Revenues reached $2.36 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.32%, and reflecting a 26.8% year-over-year growth [1] - Following the earnings report, Shopify shares declined by 2%, with an 11.6% year-to-date drop, compared to a 9.1% decline in the Zacks Computer and Technology sector [1] Revenue and Growth - Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for the first quarter was $74.75 billion, up 22.8% year over year, driven by same-store sales growth, an increase in merchants, and strong performance in Europe [2] - Merchant solutions revenues were $1.74 billion, accounting for 73.7% of total revenues, with a year-over-year increase of 29% [3] - Subscription solutions revenues reached $620 million, making up 26.3% of total revenues, and increased by 21.3% year over year [4] Profitability and Expenses - Gross profit for the first quarter was $1.17 billion, a 22.2% increase year over year, with Merchant Solutions' gross profit growing by 24% [6] - Total operating expenses were $966 million, up 10.9% year over year, but as a percentage of revenues, they decreased by 590 basis points to 40.9% [6] - Adjusted operating income was reported at $329 million, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 63.7% [8] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - As of March 31, 2025, cash and cash equivalents totaled $5.51 billion, slightly up from $5.48 billion at the end of 2024 [9] - Free cash flow increased by 56.5% year over year to $363 million, with a free cash flow margin expanding by 100 basis points to 15% [9] Future Guidance - For Q2 2025, Shopify anticipates revenue growth in the mid-twenties percentage range year over year, with gross profit expected to grow at a high-twenties percentage rate [10] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Q2 2025 revenues is $2.49 billion, indicating a 21.92% growth from the previous year [11]