Group 1: Polen International Growth Strategy Performance - The Polen International Growth Strategy returned -4.23% gross and -4.53% net of fees in Q3 2025, underperforming the MSCI ACWI (ex-USA) which gained 6.89% [1] - The strategy's concentrated approach to quality investing did not match the index performance during the quarter [1] Group 2: Shopify Inc. Performance - Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ:SHOP) had a one-month return of -0.33% and a 52-week gain of 39.63%, closing at $158.41 per share with a market capitalization of $206.225 billion on December 08, 2025 [2] - Shopify was the top contributor to both relative and absolute performance in the Polen portfolio for Q3 2025, showcasing strong results with accelerating revenue and gross merchandise volume growth [3] - Shopify's revenue increased by 32% year-over-year in Q3 2025, with 91 hedge fund portfolios holding its stock at the end of the quarter, up from 69 in the previous quarter [4]

Core Insights - The Brown Capital Management International All-Company Fund experienced a loss of 4.46% in Q3 2025, underperforming the MSCI World ex-US Growth-Net Index, which returned 2.84% during the same period [1] - Year-to-date, the fund returned 6.67%, significantly lower than the index's 19.32% return, attributed to company-specific challenges and missing out on high-performing industries [1] Company Highlights - Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ:SHOP) is highlighted as a key stock in the fund's Q3 2025 investor letter, showcasing a one-month return of 1.38% and a substantial 39.72% increase over the last 52 weeks [2] - As of December 5, 2025, Shopify's stock closed at $161.08 per share, with a market capitalization of $209.701 billion [2] - Shopify provides a comprehensive suite of digital commerce solutions, enabling merchants to manage online stores efficiently through features like web design, inventory management, and payment processing [3] - The platform's continuous innovation and user-friendly tools create significant switching costs for merchants, fostering dependency on Shopify's ecosystem for business operations [3]

Core Thesis - Shopify Inc. is experiencing strong growth driven by its transformation into an asset-light platform, with a focus on merchant solutions and transaction-based revenue [2][3][6] Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 32% year-over-year to $2.84 billion, with Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) reaching $92 billion [3] - GAAP operating profit rose to $343 million, and free cash flow reached $507 million, marking the ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit free cash flow margins at 18% [3] - Merchant solutions now account for 75% of total revenue, reflecting a strategic shift from subscription-based SaaS to transaction-based revenue [3] Business Model Transformation - Shopify has transitioned from a capital-intensive logistics operator to a lean, asset-light platform, which has led to reduced operating expenses and improved profitability [2][5] - The sale of its logistics business has contributed to this asset-light model, enhancing operating profit and free cash flow despite a slight decline in gross margin [5] Growth Areas and Risks - Shopify Payments processed $53 billion this quarter, achieving a 58% penetration rate, providing a stable, high-margin income stream [3] - Shopify Capital, which provides loans to small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs), grew rapidly but incurred $148 million in transaction and loan losses, up 155% year-over-year, indicating heightened credit risk [4] - Subscription solutions grew at 15% year-over-year, but monthly recurring revenue (MRR) growth slowed to 10%, suggesting market saturation among smaller merchants [4] Valuation and Market Position - Valuation analysis indicates a forward price-to-sales ratio of 8.2x for FY26, with a discounted cash flow range of $145–$170 per share, suggesting Shopify is fairly valued at $156.59 [5] - Long-term upside is contingent on managing lending risks, platform governance, and competition from Amazon, positioning Shopify as a fintech-driven e-commerce platform with significant potential [5]

Core Insights - Shopify has transformed into a compelling turnaround story, with its stock price increasing nearly 47% over the last six months, currently priced around $157, more than double its 52-week low of approximately $70 [2] - The company reported year-over-year revenue growth exceeding 25%, processed over $70 billion in quarterly Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), and is generating more than $1 billion in annualized free cash flow [2][3] - Market sentiment shifted positively as Shopify's operating margins returned to the mid-teens, driven by strong transaction growth and improving profitability [4] Financial Performance - Shopify's annual revenue is projected to be between $10 billion and $11 billion, growing at a rate of 20-25%, with free cash flow margins around 10-15% [5] - If revenue reaches $18-20 billion in the next four to five years, with free cash flow margins improving to 20%, annual free cash flow could rise to $3.5-4 billion [6] - A valuation multiple of 40x could lead to a market cap of approximately $340-360 billion, translating to a share price of $270-290, indicating potential for further price appreciation [6] Market Position and Strategy - Shopify is increasingly viewed as a dominant player in global retail infrastructure, not just an e-commerce platform, as it enhances its role in both front-end storefronts and backend payment systems [4] - The company benefits from ongoing merchant expansion, increased adoption of Shopify Payments, and cross-selling of AI tools, reinforcing a positive growth scenario [7] - Shopify's platform is strategically significant for brands seeking independence from major marketplaces, positioning itself as an essential component of retail infrastructure [9] Investor Sentiment - Shopify has re-emerged as a compelling story stock, attracting significant investor interest due to its structural advantages and the long-term upward trajectory of digital retail [8] - The company's growth narrative is supported by its ability to attract more merchants, increase GMV, enhance payment volumes, and expand financial services [8] Challenges - Shopify's premium valuation poses risks, as any slowdown in e-commerce spending or macroeconomic conditions could negatively impact its GMV-driven revenue [11] - Intense competition from companies like Amazon and new AI-native platforms could pressure Shopify's market position [11] - The reliance on payments revenue, which is high volume but low margin, could impact profitability if not managed carefully [12]

Core Points - DFI Retail Group is hosting its Investor Day 2025, focusing on strategic updates and growth opportunities across its businesses [1][2] - The event includes presentations from the management committee and a Q&A session, followed by store visits for participants [2] Group 1 - The event aims to provide detailed strategy updates and highlight growth opportunities [2] - Participants are reminded to silence mobile devices and are informed about potential filming and photography during the event [2] Group 2 - The agenda includes a full schedule with presentations and interactive sessions to engage investors [2] - Logistics for the afternoon store visits will be provided before the lunch break [2]

Core Insights - Shopify has transformed into a significant turnaround story on Wall Street, with its stock price increasing nearly 47% over the last six months, currently priced around $157, more than double its 52-week low of approximately $70 [2][5] - The company reported year-over-year revenue growth exceeding 25%, processed over $70 billion in quarterly Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), and is generating more than $1 billion in annualized free cash flow [2][5] - Market sentiment shifted positively as Shopify's operating margins returned to the mid-teens, a notable recovery from previous high logistics costs impacting profitability [4] Financial Performance - Shopify's annual revenue is projected to reach $10–11 billion, growing at about 20–25%, with free cash flow margins around 10–15% [5] - If revenue reaches $18–20 billion in the next four to five years, with maintained free cash flow margins of 20%, annual free cash flow could rise to $3.5–4 billion [6] - A valuation multiple of 40× could lead to a market cap of approximately $340–360 billion, translating to a share price of $270–290, indicating potential for further price appreciation [6][13] Growth Drivers - Shopify's growth is fueled by increased consumer spending, greater adoption of Shopify Payments, Shopify Capital, and AI-driven commerce tools [3][7] - The company is viewed as a dominant player in global retail infrastructure, enhancing its role in both front-end storefronts and backend payment systems [4][8] - The narrative surrounding Shopify emphasizes its structural advantages in the digital retail space, attracting more merchants and increasing GMV [8][9] Strategic Positioning - Shopify has gained strategic significance for brands seeking independence from major marketplaces, leveraging AI, automation, and enterprise-level functionalities [9] - The company is positioned as a comprehensive commerce engine, processing a significant portion of U.S. e-commerce transactions [8] Competitive Landscape - Despite its momentum, Shopify faces challenges from intense competition with platforms like Amazon, Wix, and BigCommerce, as well as new AI-native entrants [10] - The reliance on payments revenue, which is high volume but low margin, poses a risk to profitability if not managed carefully [11] Market Sentiment - Shopify's stock is now seen as a leveraged bet on the expansion of digital commerce and the company's ability to convert merchant scale into broader margins and rising free cash flow [12]

Core Insights - AppLovin (APP) has outperformed Shopify (SHOP) in 2023, showcasing stronger fundamentals at a lower price point, suggesting a more attractive investment opportunity for potential gains [2][3] Valuation and Performance Comparison - AppLovin has a lower Price to Operating Income (P/OpInc) ratio compared to Shopify, indicating a more favorable valuation [3] - Despite its lower valuation, AppLovin demonstrates higher revenue and operating income growth than Shopify [3] Market Position and Future Outlook - The current mismatch in stock prices between Shopify and AppLovin may indicate that Shopify is overvalued if it continues to underperform in revenue and operating income growth [7] - A year-over-year analysis of key metrics could reveal whether Shopify's stock price is poised for adjustment or if sustained underperformance will validate its overvaluation [7]

Group 1 - The discussion will cover holiday trends, GMV trends, growth drivers, enterprise, international business, in-store business, Shop Pay, and pricing philosophy for the upcoming years [2][3] - The session is approximately two-thirds into the quarter, indicating a focus on current performance metrics and trends [3]

Summary of Shopify Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shopify - **Industry**: E-commerce and technology platform Key Points Holiday Trends - Shopify merchants achieved **$14.6 billion** in sales during Black Friday Cyber Monday weekend, representing a **27% increase** year-over-year and a **24% increase** on a constant currency basis [4][5] - Sales during this period have nearly doubled from **$7.5 billion** in 2022, indicating strong growth for the platform [4] GMV and Growth Drivers - Shopify's growth is attributed to its evolution beyond North American SMB e-commerce to include enterprise, international, in-store, and B2B segments [6] - Online business remains the largest segment, with growth rates of **1.5 to 4 times** faster than overall e-commerce rates in various markets [8] - International growth is particularly strong, with rates in the **high 30s to low 40s percent** [11] - The majority of growth is driven by merchants with an annual GMV of **$25 million and under**, although larger merchants are growing faster [10][21] Enterprise Strategy - Shopify has focused on building its enterprise capabilities over the past three years, including partnerships with system integrators and a dedicated enterprise sales team [13][14] - Recent enterprise wins include brands like **Estée Lauder** and **Canada Goose**, indicating success in attracting larger clients [14] - Monetization for enterprise customers often starts with components like **Shop Pay**, leading to a healthy payments attach rate [19] International Expansion - Shopify has invested significantly in international markets, adding **15 new countries** for payment services and expanding product offerings [26] - International GMV growth is balanced between new and existing merchants, with Europe being a key growth driver [25][26] Payments and Shop Pay - Payments penetration has reached **65%** as of Q3, with expectations for continued growth, particularly in international markets [28][30] - Shop Pay has seen adoption rates of **67%**, with international markets showing even faster growth [32] In-Store Business - The in-store point of sale (POS) business accounts for a low double-digit percentage of GMV and is a significant growth area [40] - Shopify's POS system is designed to integrate seamlessly with online operations, making it an attractive option for retailers looking to modernize [41][42] Future Revenue Drivers - Anticipated growth in 2026 and 2027 will be driven by international expansion, enterprise growth, and product offerings, with potential pricing adjustments contributing to revenue [43][46] - The Shop App is experiencing **140% year-over-year growth** in GMV, indicating strong consumer engagement [48] Agentic Commerce - Shopify is investing in Agentic Commerce, focusing on optimizing merchant visibility and sales through AI and LLMs [55][56] - The goal is to ensure merchants are discoverable across various platforms, enhancing their sales opportunities [57] Additional Insights - Shopify's growth strategy includes a mix of online and offline channels, with a focus on unifying customer experiences across platforms [9][41] - The company is well-positioned to leverage its diverse growth levers, including enterprise, international, and in-store offerings, to drive future success [11][21][46]

These stocks could double in value by 2030.Growth stocks can help you grow a small sum of money into a large nest egg for retirement. While stock selection plays a crucial role in your returns, many of the best growth stocks are brands and services you might use every day.If you have extra cash to put in a few stocks for at least five years, here are two top growth stocks that have delivered exceptional returns to their shareholders and still offer long-term upside. 1. NetflixNetflix (NFLX 5.46%) has been a ...