Core Insights - Shopify reported a 32% year-over-year revenue growth, achieving a new all-time high, reinforcing its position as a leader in e-commerce innovation [1] - Despite the revenue growth, profits fell by 68%, raising questions among investors about the sustainability of the stock [1] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet and an expanding ecosystem, indicating long-term upside potential for patient investors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shopify's stock experienced a decline despite reporting strong revenue growth, primarily due to increased loan losses impacting earnings. However, the stock has seen significant appreciation year-to-date and over the past year [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Shopify's Q3 revenue increased by 32% to $2.84 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.76 billion [5]. - The company's gross merchandise volume (GMV) rose by 32% to $92 billion, with international GMV increasing by 41% [6]. - Merchant solution revenue jumped 38% to $2.15 billion, while subscription revenue grew by 15% to $699 million [7]. - Adjusted EPS slightly decreased from $0.36 to $0.34 due to higher loan losses, which accounted for 5% of revenue [8]. - Monthly recurring revenue (MRR) was reported at $193 million, below the expected $195 million [9]. Group 2: Growth Drivers - Shopify attributed its robust growth to advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), with over 750,000 shops using its Sidekick AI assistant [2]. - AI-driven traffic to Shopify stores increased seven-fold since January, and orders from AI searches rose 11-fold [3]. - The company continues to attract large brands, recently adding notable names such as Estée Lauder and e.l.f. [7]. - Strong growth in Europe was highlighted, with GMV surging 49%, contributing to 21% of total revenue [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Shopify forecasts fourth-quarter revenue growth in the mid-to-high 20s percentage range, aligning with previous guidance [9]. - The company is well-positioned for future growth, particularly in agentic commerce and B2B sectors [11]. - Despite a high forward price-to-sales ratio of over 15 based on 2026 estimates, the company remains attractive for potential investment [12].

Core Insights - Shopify reported in-line earnings for Q3 and slightly exceeded revenue estimates, indicating strong performance in the e-commerce sector [1] Financial Performance - The company experienced an acceleration in gross merchandise volume growth during Q3, contributing positively to its financial results [1]

Group 1 - Shopify Inc. has experienced a recent decline in stock price, attributed to market trends and comparisons with other companies like Palantir [1] - The company operates a commerce platform that assists businesses in managing products, orders, payments, and customer relationships [2] - There is a belief that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk compared to Shopify [3]

Core Insights - Akamai Technologies (AKAM) is currently viewed as a better value opportunity compared to Shopify (SHOP) based on various financial metrics [1][7] Valuation Metrics - AKAM has a forward P/E ratio of 10.88, significantly lower than SHOP's forward P/E of 107.01 [5] - The PEG ratio for AKAM is 2.22, while SHOP's PEG ratio stands at 4.33, indicating that AKAM is more reasonably priced relative to its expected earnings growth [5] - AKAM's P/B ratio is 2.39, compared to SHOP's P/B of 16.21, further suggesting that AKAM is undervalued [6] Earnings Outlook - AKAM is currently exhibiting an improving earnings outlook, which is a positive indicator in the Zacks Rank model [3][7] - The Zacks Rank for AKAM is 2 (Buy), while SHOP holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), reflecting a more favorable earnings estimate revision trend for AKAM [3]

Core Viewpoint - Baillie Gifford's Q3 2025 investment strategy reflects a focus on long-term growth, with significant new positions in cryptocurrency and aerospace, while reducing exposure to certain high-valuation tech stocks [1][5]. New Positions and Significant Increases - Baillie Gifford added 19 new stocks in Q3 2025, with the most notable being Coinbase (COIN), acquiring over 587,000 shares, representing 0.15% of its portfolio [1]. - Another significant addition was Knife River Holding Co (KNF), with nearly 2.19 million shares purchased, valued at approximately $169 million, accounting for 0.13% of the portfolio [1]. Major Increases - The firm significantly increased its position in Rocket Lab (RKLB) by 176.15%, adding over 7.73 million shares, aligning with its investment strategy in disruptive innovation [2]. - Other important increases included The Ensign Group (ENSG), with a 96.2% increase, focusing on healthcare services [3]. Major Reductions - Baillie Gifford completely exited 18 stocks and significantly reduced positions in 188 stocks, indicating a strategic shift [3]. - A notable reduction was in Cloudflare (NET), where approximately 3.68 million shares were sold, a decrease of 14.4%, impacting the portfolio by -0.54% [3]. - Other key reductions included Spotify Technology SA (SPOT) with a 9.7% decrease (approximately 930,000 shares) and Shopify (SHOP) with a 6.1% decrease (approximately 890,000 shares) [4]. Investment Insights and Summary - The overall strategy of Baillie Gifford in Q3 2025 illustrates a "survival of the fittest" approach, focusing on future growth [5]. - The investment portfolio consists of 264 stocks, with the top five holdings being NVDA (6.43%), MELI (5.74%), SE (5.31%), AMZN (5.15%), and SPOT (4.5%) [5]. - The offensive strategy includes bold bets on frontier technologies like cryptocurrency (Coinbase) and aerospace (Rocket Lab), while the defensive strategy involves profit-taking on overvalued or stabilizing growth tech stocks [5].

Financial Performance - Shopify's Q3 gross merchandise value increased 22% year-over-year to $562 billion [4] - Shopify's subscription revenue grew, fueled by monthly recurring revenue, which soared 25% to $142 million [4] - Shopify's top line expanded 32% to $284 billion, beating Q3 estimates of $275 billion [4] - Shopify's free cash flow spiked 78% during Q3 to $57 million compared to $285 million in the compared to quarter [6] - Shopify's Q3 earnings of 34 cents per share dipped from EPS of 36 cents a year ago [5] Growth & Future Outlook - Shopify expects Q4 revenue growth in the mid to high 20% range [8] - Shopify expects to maintain full year free cash flow margins in the double digits [9] - Shopify's top line is expected to span over 20% in fiscal 2025 and fiscal year 26 with projections edging north of $13 billion [9] - Shopify's annual EPS is now slated to be up 11% in fiscal year 25 and is projected to increase another 21% in fiscal year 26 to $176 per share [9] Strategic Initiatives & Market Position - Shopify announced a partnership with open AI in September to integrate commerce directly into chat GPT [2] - Shopify's commerce operations have been enhanced with AI tools, payment installments, and expanded point of sales capabilities [3]

Group 1 - Shopify has been a favorite in the e-commerce market, but AppLovin may offer better growth potential at a lower valuation [2][3] - AppLovin shows greater revenue and operating income growth compared to Shopify, despite having a lower Price to Operating Income ratio [3] - The current discrepancy between AppLovin's valuation and performance suggests it may be a more attractive investment option than Shopify [3] Group 2 - A year-over-year analysis of key metrics may indicate whether Shopify's stock is overvalued compared to its competitors [6] - Persistent underperformance in Shopify's revenue and operating income growth could confirm that its stock is overpriced relative to peers [7] - The analysis of additional metrics is essential for a comprehensive investment assessment, which informs portfolio strategies [8]

Group 1 - JPMorgan raised the price target on Shopify (SHOP) to $180 from $179 while maintaining an Overweight rating on the shares [1] - The increase in price target is attributed to positive estimate revisions following the earnings report [1] - Shopify's volume growth accelerated sequentially in Q3, but there was a spike in transaction losses affecting the Q4 free cash flow margin outlook [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan noted that there has not been a significant change in intra-quarter spending trends for Shopify [1] - The increase in transaction losses is described as "treatable" by the analyst [1]

Core Insights - Shopify reported strong GMV growth of $9.2 billion, a 32% year-over-year increase, exceeding expectations despite a high base from the previous quarter [6][18] - The company is experiencing a trend of increasing revenue but declining profit margins, indicating a "growth without profit" scenario [13][14] GMV Growth - The GMV growth continues to accelerate, reaching $9.2 billion with a year-over-year growth of 32%, outperforming market expectations [6][18] - Shopify Payments penetration in GMV increased by 0.5 percentage points to 65.4%, driving GPV growth to 40%, which is higher than GMV growth [7][19] Subscription Business - Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR) was $193 million, a 10.3% year-over-year increase, but still below market expectations due to the impact of free trial promotions [8][23] - Subscription service revenue grew by 14.6% year-over-year, but the growth rate is slowing down [8][25] Merchant Services - Merchant services revenue reached $2.15 billion, a nearly 39% year-over-year increase, benefiting from strong GMV growth [8][25] - The service monetization rate increased by approximately 10 basis points to 2.33%, indicating a stable upward trend [7][25] Profit Margins - Gross margins are under pressure, with subscription margins declining by 0.6 percentage points and merchant service margins declining by 1.5 percentage points [10][30] - Overall gross profit margin decreased by about 2.8 percentage points, falling below market expectations [10][29] Expenses and Profitability - Total expenses grew by approximately 25.5% year-over-year, maintaining a high growth rate, which is outpacing gross profit growth [10][34] - Operating profit margin decreased by about 1 percentage point, and free cash flow was approximately $510 million, a 20.4% year-over-year increase, but below revenue and gross profit growth rates [10][37]