高盛发布研报称，申洲国际(02313)上半年收入略胜预期，但经营利润逊预期1%，因劳动成本上升导致 毛利率及营业利润率均不及预期。净利润较该行预期高6%，因受惠政府补助增加及汇兑收益等因素。 该行将2025至27年净利润预测下调0.2%至上调0.6%，目标价由71港元升至74港元，维持"买入"评级。 正面而言，该行对公司有序推进的订单情况感到鼓舞，受惠于从关键客户获得稳定的份额增长，以及对 美国市场销售敝口较低等。但另一方面，毛利率复苏较预期缓慢，反映国内劳动成本上升无法有效转嫁 予客户等。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Shenzhou International (02313) slightly exceeded revenue expectations for the first half of the year, but operating profit fell short by 1% due to rising labor costs impacting gross and operating profit margins. Net profit was 6% higher than the bank's expectations, benefiting from increased government subsidies and foreign exchange gains [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of the year was slightly above expectations [1] - Operating profit was 1% below expectations due to increased labor costs affecting margins [1] - Net profit exceeded expectations by 6%, attributed to government subsidies and foreign exchange gains [1] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin and operating profit margin were both below expectations due to rising domestic labor costs that could not be effectively passed on to customers [1] Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 down by 0.2% to up by 0.6% [1] - Target price increased from HKD 71 to HKD 74, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Market Position - The company is encouraged by the orderly progress of orders, benefiting from stable market share growth from key clients [1] - The company has a relatively low sales exposure to the U.S. market, which is viewed positively [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][4][7] Core Views - The company has shown steady performance in revenue with a year-on-year increase of 15.3% in the first half of 2025, reaching 14.97 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 8.4% to 3.18 billion yuan [4][7] - The company is focusing on market expansion, capacity optimization, and institutional improvement to navigate the complex operating environment [7] - The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upwards to 6.74 billion yuan and 7.45 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 8.14 billion yuan [7] Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2025E revenue is projected at 31.91 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.3% [6][10] - Net profit for 2025E is estimated at 6.74 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.9% [6][10] - Key Financial Ratios: - Gross margin is expected to be 28.2% in 2025E, with a net margin of 21.1% [10] - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19.7% in 2025E [10] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - The diluted EPS for 2025E is forecasted at 4.48 yuan [10] Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, the revenue composition is as follows: - Sports products accounted for 67.7% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% - Casual wear contributed 25.3% with a significant increase of 37.4% - Underwear represented 6.3% with a growth of 4.1% [7] Geographic Revenue Distribution - Revenue by region in the first half of 2025: - Europe: 20.2% of total revenue, up 19.9% year-on-year - Americas: 17.1%, with a growth of 35.8% - Japan: 16.7%, increasing by 18.1% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.97 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.3%, and a net profit of 3.18 billion RMB, up 8.4% year-on-year, both achieving historical highs for the same period [6][8] - The company demonstrates strong growth potential across cycles, with significant contributions from increased sales volume and a slight increase in unit price [6] - The company has a robust cash position with over 12 billion RMB in net cash and a proposed dividend of 1.38 HKD per share, reflecting a cash dividend payout ratio of approximately 60% [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 24,970 million RMB - 2024: 28,663 million RMB - 2025E: 32,053 million RMB - 2026E: 35,437 million RMB - 2027E: 39,032 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at -10% for 2023, 15% for 2024, 12% for 2025, 11% for 2026, and 10% for 2027 [5] - The net profit forecast is as follows: - 2023: 4,557 million RMB - 2024: 6,241 million RMB - 2025E: 6,606 million RMB - 2026E: 7,330 million RMB - 2027E: 8,113 million RMB - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 24% in 2023 to 29% by 2027 [5][6] Revenue Breakdown - The company’s revenue by product category for the first half of 2025 shows significant growth in leisure and sports categories, with sales of 10.13 billion RMB for sports, 3.79 billion RMB for leisure, and 0.94 billion RMB for underwear, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.9%, 37.4%, and 4.1% respectively [6] - Revenue from major clients such as Uniqlo, Nike, Adidas, and Puma has shown strong growth, with Uniqlo's revenue increasing by 27.4% to 4.33 billion RMB [6]

该行将2025至27年净利润预测下调0.2%至上调0.6%，目标价由71港元上调至74港元，维持"买入"评 级。 高盛发表研究报告指，申洲国际上半年收入略胜预期，但经营利润逊预期1%，因劳动成本上升导致毛 利率及营业利润率均不及预期。净利润较该行预期高6%，因受惠政府补助增加及汇兑收益等因素。 正面而言，该行对公司有序推进的订单情况感到鼓舞，受惠于从关键客户获得稳定的份额增长，以及对 美国市场销售敝口较低等。但另一方面，毛利率复苏较预期缓慢，反映国内劳动成本上升无法有效转嫁 予客户等。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenzhou International is expected to experience a recovery in 2024, with a projected revenue increase of 14.8% compared to the previous year, despite facing challenges in 2023 [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the gross profit margin is anticipated to rebound to 28.1%, supported by effective cost control and a focus on leading downstream clients [1] - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance and cost management, which enhances profitability stability amid industry fluctuations [1] Group 2: Strategic Advantages - The company has established significant competitive barriers through vertical integration, covering the entire production chain from weaving to finished garments, resulting in a high fabric self-sufficiency rate and reduced delivery times [2] - Continuous technological innovation has allowed Shenzhou to maintain high gross profit margins, with high-tech products driving the overall gross margin recovery [2] - Deep partnerships with major clients such as Uniqlo, Nike, Adidas, and Puma have been cultivated, with these four clients contributing 80.75% of revenue in 2024, ensuring efficient capacity utilization [2] Group 3: Global Layout and Risk Mitigation - Shenzhou's production layout features a "China R&D + Southeast Asia manufacturing" model, reducing risks associated with international trade and leveraging lower labor costs in Southeast Asia [2] - By 2023, the proportion of production capacity in China decreased to 47%, while Vietnam's capacity increased to 27%, with a new base in Cambodia expected to add 10% capacity by 2025 [2] Group 4: Future Growth Drivers - The company is diversifying its client base, reducing reliance on major clients, with new customer revenue share expected to increase by 6.6 percentage points to 16.2% over three years [3] - The product structure is shifting towards high-value categories, with sports products sales increasing by 9.8% and leisure products by 27.1% in 2024, driven by innovative materials [3] - Digital supply chain improvements have enhanced operational efficiency by nearly 90%, with a focus on local sourcing strategies to shorten delivery times [3] Group 5: Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 31.227 billion, 34.131 billion, and 37.671 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.45, 4.96, and 5.42 yuan [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Shenzhou International (02313) at 4.39/4.80 HKD for 2025/26, with the current stock price corresponding to 12/11 times the 2025/26 price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, and maintains an outperform rating for the industry. The target price is raised by 5.5% to 73.72 HKD, implying a 24% upside potential based on a 15/14 times P/E ratio for 2025/26 [1]. Group 1 - The company's 1H25 performance aligns with expectations, reporting a revenue increase of 15% to 15 billion HKD and a net profit increase of 8% to 3.2 billion HKD. The company declared an interim dividend of 1.38 HKD per share, with a payout ratio of 60% [2]. - Revenue growth of 15% exceeded expectations, primarily driven by rapid sales growth and continued market share gains among major clients. Revenue from four key brands—Uniqlo, Nike, Adidas, and Puma—grew by 27%, 6%, 28%, and 15% respectively. Regionally, revenue from China, Europe, Japan, and the US grew by -2%, 20%, 18%, and 36%, respectively, with respective shares of 24%, 20%, 17%, and 17% [3]. - The gross margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 27.1% due to several factors, including significant wage increases starting in 2H24, rising employee numbers in Cambodia, and changes in customer structure. Other income sources, such as government subsidies and foreign exchange gains, increased by 230 million HKD year-on-year, but were offset by a higher tax rate, leading to an overall net profit increase of 8% [3]. Group 2 - The impact of tariffs is manageable, with stable order rhythms and pricing agreements under current tariff arrangements. The company continues to increase its workforce in Cambodia and Vietnam, enhancing production efficiency and indicating a growing share of Southeast Asian capacity in the overall production [4]. - Management maintains guidance for low double-digit order growth in 2025, with expectations for high single-digit year-on-year order growth in 2H25. The company anticipates improvements in gross margin in 2H25 as the one-time wage increases and customer structure changes are expected to stabilize [5].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Shenzhou International (02313) at 4.39/4.80 HKD for 2025/26, with a target price raised by 5.5% to 73.72 HKD, indicating a 24% upside potential based on the adjusted price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15/14 times for 2025/26 [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a 15% year-on-year increase in revenue to 15 billion HKD for 1H25, with a net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 8% to 3.2 billion HKD, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] - The interim dividend declared is 1.38 HKD per share, reflecting a payout ratio of 60% [2] Revenue Growth Drivers - The 15% revenue growth exceeded expectations, primarily driven by rapid sales growth and market share gains among major clients [3] - Revenue contributions from key brands were as follows: Uniqlo (+27%), Nike (+6%), Adidas (+28%), and Puma (+15%); regional revenue growth was reported as: China (-2%), Europe (+20%), Japan (+18%), and the US (+36%) [3] Margin Analysis - Gross margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 27.1% in 1H25, influenced by several factors including increased labor costs due to wage hikes in 2H24, rising employee numbers in Cambodia, and changes in customer mix [4] - Other income sources, such as government subsidies and foreign exchange gains, increased by 230 million HKD year-on-year, but were offset by a higher effective tax rate, which rose by 1.7 percentage points to 12.5% [4] Tariff and Production Capacity - The impact of tariffs is manageable, with stable order rhythms and pricing agreements under current tariff arrangements with the US [5] - The company continues to expand its workforce in Southeast Asia, particularly in Cambodia and Vietnam, enhancing its production capacity and global operational advantages [5] Future Outlook - Management maintains guidance for low double-digit order growth in 2025, with expectations for high single-digit year-on-year growth in order volume for 2H25 [6] - An improvement in gross margin is anticipated in 2H25 as the one-time wage increases and customer mix issues are resolved [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.97 billion RMB and a net profit of 3.18 billion RMB for H1 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 15% and 8% respectively [1] - The company expects revenue growth of 10% to 15% and net profit growth in the single digits for 2025, with projected net profits of 6.56 billion RMB, 7.31 billion RMB, and 8.02 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the company's gross margin was 27.1%, down from 29.0% in H1 2024, primarily due to rising labor costs [2] - The net profit margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 21.2% in H1 2025 [2] Customer and Sales Performance - Sales to the top four customers (Uniqlo, Nike, Adidas, PUMA) were 4.33 billion RMB, 3.44 billion RMB, 2.99 billion RMB, and 1.53 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 6%, 28%, and 15% [3] - The company achieved sales of 2.67 billion RMB from other customers, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [3] Capacity and Production - The company has increased hiring and optimized production management to enhance capacity utilization and expand overseas production [4] - New production facilities in Vietnam and Cambodia are expected to contribute significantly to capacity in the medium to long term [4] Financial Projections - The company anticipates a stable growth trajectory for revenue and comparable profit margins in 2025, with a projected revenue of 32.13 billion RMB [6] - The estimated P/E ratio for 2025 is 12.5 times, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking it as the first recommendation [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a positive turning point in 2024, with a projected revenue increase of 14.8% compared to the previous year, driven by recovering domestic consumption and a rebound in orders from key international clients [5][16]. - The company's financial performance is robust, with a forecasted gross margin recovery to 28.1% in 2024, showcasing excellent cost control and risk management capabilities [5][21]. - The strategic advantages include vertical integration, technological innovation, deep client relationships, and a global production layout that mitigates risks [6][9][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Operational Resilience - Short-term recovery is confirmed, with a solid operational foundation as the company rebounds from a challenging 2023, where revenue was pressured by reduced orders from key clients [16]. - Financial performance remains stable, demonstrating strong risk resilience with a historical average ROE of 15.94% and a cash flow management ratio significantly above industry averages [21][25]. 2. Strategic Advantages - Vertical integration in production provides significant cost advantages and efficiency, with a high self-sufficiency rate in fabric production [26]. - Continuous technological innovation has led to high-margin products, with a total of 585 patents authorized by 2024, enhancing the company's competitive edge [30]. - The company maintains deep ties with major clients like Uniqlo, Nike, Adidas, and Puma, which collectively contribute approximately 80% of revenue, ensuring stable order flows [31][36]. - A global production strategy, characterized by a shift towards Southeast Asia, helps mitigate risks associated with international trade and labor costs [34]. 3. Future Growth Drivers - The client structure is diversifying, reducing dependency on major clients while increasing revenue from emerging brands [37]. - The digital supply chain initiatives have improved operational efficiency by nearly 90%, enhancing responsiveness and delivery capabilities [41]. - Governance stability, with significant ownership by the founding family and a highly experienced management team, supports long-term strategic consistency [45]. 4. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 312.27 billion, 341.31 billion, and 376.71 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.45, 4.96, and 5.42 [9][53].