Core Viewpoint - Bank of America Securities has downgraded the earnings per share forecast for Shenzhou International (02313) by 2% and 3% for the next two years, while also lowering the target price from HKD 73 to HKD 71.8, despite maintaining a "Buy" rating due to strong sales growth from major clients [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Shenzhou International's gross margin performance in the first half of the year was below expectations, with a reported gross margin of 27.1% [1] - The company experienced strong revenue performance, partly due to favorable order timing [1] - The forecast for the second half of the year indicates only a slight improvement in gross margin, remaining below the 28.1% expected for 2024 and the pre-pandemic level of over 30% [1] Group 2: Market Position and Client Performance - Major clients of Shenzhou International showed significant sales growth that outperformed global industry peers in the first half of the year [1] - The recovery of Nike is anticipated to be a key factor influencing Shenzhou's stock performance moving forward [1]

高盛发布研报称，申洲国际(02313)上半年收入略胜预期，但经营利润逊预期1%，因劳动成本上升导致 毛利率及营业利润率均不及预期。净利润较该行预期高6%，因受惠政府补助增加及汇兑收益等因素。 该行将2025至27年净利润预测下调0.2%至上调0.6%，目标价由71港元升至74港元，维持"买入"评级。 正面而言，该行对公司有序推进的订单情况感到鼓舞，受惠于从关键客户获得稳定的份额增长，以及对 美国市场销售敝口较低等。但另一方面，毛利率复苏较预期缓慢，反映国内劳动成本上升无法有效转嫁 予客户等。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Shenzhou International (02313) slightly exceeded revenue expectations for the first half of the year, but operating profit fell short by 1% due to rising labor costs impacting gross and operating profit margins. Net profit was 6% higher than the bank's expectations, benefiting from increased government subsidies and foreign exchange gains [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of the year was slightly above expectations [1] - Operating profit was 1% below expectations due to increased labor costs affecting margins [1] - Net profit exceeded expectations by 6%, attributed to government subsidies and foreign exchange gains [1] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin and operating profit margin were both below expectations due to rising domestic labor costs that could not be effectively passed on to customers [1] Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 down by 0.2% to up by 0.6% [1] - Target price increased from HKD 71 to HKD 74, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Market Position - The company is encouraged by the orderly progress of orders, benefiting from stable market share growth from key clients [1] - The company has a relatively low sales exposure to the U.S. market, which is viewed positively [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][4][7] Core Views - The company has shown steady performance in revenue with a year-on-year increase of 15.3% in the first half of 2025, reaching 14.97 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 8.4% to 3.18 billion yuan [4][7] - The company is focusing on market expansion, capacity optimization, and institutional improvement to navigate the complex operating environment [7] - The projected net profits for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upwards to 6.74 billion yuan and 7.45 billion yuan respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 8.14 billion yuan [7] Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2025E revenue is projected at 31.91 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 11.3% [6][10] - Net profit for 2025E is estimated at 6.74 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 7.9% [6][10] - Key Financial Ratios: - Gross margin is expected to be 28.2% in 2025E, with a net margin of 21.1% [10] - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19.7% in 2025E [10] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - The diluted EPS for 2025E is forecasted at 4.48 yuan [10] Revenue Breakdown - In the first half of 2025, the revenue composition is as follows: - Sports products accounted for 67.7% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 9.9% - Casual wear contributed 25.3% with a significant increase of 37.4% - Underwear represented 6.3% with a growth of 4.1% [7] Geographic Revenue Distribution - Revenue by region in the first half of 2025: - Europe: 20.2% of total revenue, up 19.9% year-on-year - Americas: 17.1%, with a growth of 35.8% - Japan: 16.7%, increasing by 18.1% [7]

上 市 公 司 纺织服饰 2025 年 08 月 28 日 申洲国际 (02313) ——25H1 营收增长领跑运动制造业，再次证明高护城河 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 08 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 59.35 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9020.26 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 74.65/42.60 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 892.16 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,503.22 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0953 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -31% 19% 69% HSCEI 申洲国际 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 《申洲国际（02313）点评：穿越周期又上 台阶，24 年营收净利均创历史新高》 2025/03/27 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 求佳峰 A0230523060001 qiujf@swsresearch.com 联系人 求佳峰 (8621)23297818× q ...

该行将2025至27年净利润预测下调0.2%至上调0.6%，目标价由71港元上调至74港元，维持"买入"评 级。 高盛发表研究报告指，申洲国际上半年收入略胜预期，但经营利润逊预期1%，因劳动成本上升导致毛 利率及营业利润率均不及预期。净利润较该行预期高6%，因受惠政府补助增加及汇兑收益等因素。 正面而言，该行对公司有序推进的订单情况感到鼓舞，受惠于从关键客户获得稳定的份额增长，以及对 美国市场销售敝口较低等。但另一方面，毛利率复苏较预期缓慢，反映国内劳动成本上升无法有效转嫁 予客户等。 ...

机构：华鑫证券 研究员：娄倩 经营韧性再验证：生产复苏与财务稳健 申洲国际短期复苏已然明朗。虽然2023 年收入承压，全年表现不佳。但是，2024 年出现积极拐点，收 入较上年度增加14.8%。国内消费需求持续扩大，国外核心客户在结束2023年去库存需求后，订单量明 显回升。日本市场优衣库订单占比提升与美国市场运动类产品需求增长，受益于此，公司产能利用率显 著提升，释放出业绩复苏的信号。在应对风险的同时持续优化订单结构，实现订单量与毛利率的同步提 高。 长期来看，申洲国际财务表现稳健，成本管控卓越。2024年，毛利率回升至28.1%。锁定下游行业龙头 客户，大幅降低市场开拓成本。卓越的生产管理能力进一步优化成本结构，全方位保障公司在行业波动 中的盈利稳定性。 1. 客户结构优化。公司持续推进客户结构多元化，显著降低对头部客户的依赖。通过重点开拓安踏、李 宁等国内运动品牌及Lululemon 等细分领域龙头，新客户收入占比三年内提升6.6 个百分点至16.2%，有 效分散集中度风险。 2. 产品结构高端化。业务结构向高附加值品类倾斜，形成"运动主导、休闲升级"的格局。运动品类依托 NikeFlyknit 等创新 ...

中金发布研报称，基本维持申洲国际(02313)2025/26年EPS4.39/4.80元，当前股价对应12/11倍2025/26年 市盈率，维持跑赢行业评级。考虑行业估值中枢上移，上调目标价5.5%至73.72港元，对应15/14倍 2025/26年市盈率，有24%的上行空间。 中金主要观点如下： 管理层维持2025年订单量增长低双位数的指引，该行预计2H25订单量同比增长高单位数;毛利率方面， 随着一次性的工资增长结束以及客户结构变化因素逐渐消除，该行预计2H25毛利率有望在环比和同比 上均有提升。 风险提示：下游客户增长不及预期，原材料价格波动，人民币汇率波动。 1H25公司收入同比增长15%，增长主要来自销量驱动。四大品牌Uniqlo/Nike/adidas/Puma收入分别同比 +27%/+6%/+28%/+15%;分地区看中国/欧洲/日本/美国收入分别同比-2%/20%/18%/36%、占比分别达到 24%/20%/17%/17%。申洲国际在四大客户中的增速均高于客户自身规模增长，说明公司在四大客户中 仍在持续获得份额提升，该行认为这充分显示出公司强劲的核心竞争力。 毛利率下降主要由于2H24一次性 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Shenzhou International (02313) at 4.39/4.80 HKD for 2025/26, with a target price raised by 5.5% to 73.72 HKD, indicating a 24% upside potential based on the adjusted price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15/14 times for 2025/26 [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a 15% year-on-year increase in revenue to 15 billion HKD for 1H25, with a net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 8% to 3.2 billion HKD, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] - The interim dividend declared is 1.38 HKD per share, reflecting a payout ratio of 60% [2] Revenue Growth Drivers - The 15% revenue growth exceeded expectations, primarily driven by rapid sales growth and market share gains among major clients [3] - Revenue contributions from key brands were as follows: Uniqlo (+27%), Nike (+6%), Adidas (+28%), and Puma (+15%); regional revenue growth was reported as: China (-2%), Europe (+20%), Japan (+18%), and the US (+36%) [3] Margin Analysis - Gross margin decreased by 1.9 percentage points to 27.1% in 1H25, influenced by several factors including increased labor costs due to wage hikes in 2H24, rising employee numbers in Cambodia, and changes in customer mix [4] - Other income sources, such as government subsidies and foreign exchange gains, increased by 230 million HKD year-on-year, but were offset by a higher effective tax rate, which rose by 1.7 percentage points to 12.5% [4] Tariff and Production Capacity - The impact of tariffs is manageable, with stable order rhythms and pricing agreements under current tariff arrangements with the US [5] - The company continues to expand its workforce in Southeast Asia, particularly in Cambodia and Vietnam, enhancing its production capacity and global operational advantages [5] Future Outlook - Management maintains guidance for low double-digit order growth in 2025, with expectations for high single-digit year-on-year growth in order volume for 2H25 [6] - An improvement in gross margin is anticipated in 2H25 as the one-time wage increases and customer mix issues are resolved [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.97 billion RMB and a net profit of 3.18 billion RMB for H1 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 15% and 8% respectively [1] - The company expects revenue growth of 10% to 15% and net profit growth in the single digits for 2025, with projected net profits of 6.56 billion RMB, 7.31 billion RMB, and 8.02 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the company's gross margin was 27.1%, down from 29.0% in H1 2024, primarily due to rising labor costs [2] - The net profit margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 21.2% in H1 2025 [2] Customer and Sales Performance - Sales to the top four customers (Uniqlo, Nike, Adidas, PUMA) were 4.33 billion RMB, 3.44 billion RMB, 2.99 billion RMB, and 1.53 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 6%, 28%, and 15% [3] - The company achieved sales of 2.67 billion RMB from other customers, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [3] Capacity and Production - The company has increased hiring and optimized production management to enhance capacity utilization and expand overseas production [4] - New production facilities in Vietnam and Cambodia are expected to contribute significantly to capacity in the medium to long term [4] Financial Projections - The company anticipates a stable growth trajectory for revenue and comparable profit margins in 2025, with a projected revenue of 32.13 billion RMB [6] - The estimated P/E ratio for 2025 is 12.5 times, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [5]