Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands is currently undervalued in the market due to recent declines in consumer spending, presenting a unique opportunity for investors to acquire the stock at a high dividend yield and low free cash flow multiple [1] Sales Performance - The company experienced a 15% year-over-year decline in sales last quarter, primarily due to asset sales in the wine and spirits segment, while the beer segment, which constitutes 94% of total net sales, saw an adjusted sales decrease of 7% year over year [3] - Recent sales pressure is linked to cautious consumer spending, indicating a temporary dip rather than a permanent decline in brand positioning [5] Market Trends - Imported beer is gaining traction in the U.S. market, with nearly 18% of all beer consumed being imported, benefiting Constellation's portfolio that includes popular brands like Corona and Modelo [4] - The company's top beer brands gained dollar share in the U.S. market last quarter, with Modelo Especial leading in dollar sales [6] Financial Metrics - Despite lower sales, the company generated $634 million in free cash flow last quarter and over $1.8 billion on a trailing-12-month basis, allowing for an attractive price-to-free-cash-flow multiple of 13.8, significantly below the five-year average of 25 [8] - The dividend payout ratio was only 39% of free cash flow over the last year, with a current quarterly payment of $1.02, resulting in a forward dividend yield of 2.88%, more than double the S&P 500 average [9] Investment Opportunity - The current cyclical downturn presents a rare buying opportunity for investors to acquire a high-quality company at a bargain price, as such valuations are typically not available during periods of sales growth [10]

Group 1 - Constellation Brands and PepsiCo are considered stable blue chip stocks for conservative investors, with Constellation being a major producer of alcoholic beverages and PepsiCo a leading beverage maker with strong packaged food brands [1] - Over the past two years, Constellation's stock has dropped over 40%, while PepsiCo's stock has decreased by 10%, contrasting with the S&P 500's rally of more than 40% during the same period [2] - Constellation faces significant challenges, including a decline in beer consumption among younger Americans and reduced spending from Hispanic consumers, which has negatively impacted its revenue [5][6] Group 2 - For fiscal 2026, Constellation anticipates a decline in beer sales by 2%-4%, a drop in wine and spirits sales by 17%-20%, and an overall organic sales dip of 4%-6%, with analysts projecting an 11% revenue decline and a 4% drop in adjusted EPS [7] - Analysts expect revenue to remain flat for fiscal 2027, but adjusted EPS may rise by 8% as the company restructures its weaker business segments [8] - Constellation's stock is currently priced at $140, which may appear cheap at ten times next year's earnings, and it offers a forward dividend yield of 2.9%, but a higher valuation is unlikely until the beer business stabilizes [8]

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands, Inc. is expected to report a decline in earnings for the fiscal third quarter of 2026, reflecting ongoing challenges in consumer demand and margin pressures [2][5]. Financial Performance - Analysts anticipate a profit of $2.66 per share for the upcoming quarter, which represents an 18.2% decrease from $3.25 per share in the same quarter last year [2]. - For the full fiscal year, the expected EPS is $11.50, down 16.6% from $13.78 in fiscal 2025, but projected to rise by 8.3% to $12.45 in fiscal 2027 [3]. Stock Performance - STZ stock has underperformed significantly, with a 40.1% decline over the past 52 weeks, contrasting with the S&P 500 Index's 11.1% gains [4]. - The stock also underperformed compared to the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund, which saw a 2.2% loss during the same period [4]. Market Sentiment - Analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" rating for STZ, with 10 out of 24 analysts recommending a "Strong Buy" and an average price target of $169.18, indicating a potential upside of 21.1% from current levels [7]. - The company expresses cautious optimism regarding future growth despite the volatility in consumer demand and mixed market results [5].

About this content About Angela Harmantas Angela Harmantas is an Editor at Proactive. She has over 15 years of experience covering the equity markets in North America, with a particular focus on junior resource stocks. Angela has reported from numerous countries around the world, including Canada, the US, Australia, Brazil, Ghana, and South Africa for leading trade publications. Previously, she worked in investor relations and led the foreign direct investment program in Canada for the Swedish government ...

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ) is facing challenges that have led to a downgrade in its price target by Piper Sandler, primarily due to the impact of GLP-1 weight loss pharmaceuticals on alcohol sales and increased competition from higher alcohol by volume beverages [1][3]. Group 1: Price Target and Ratings - Piper Sandler has cut its price target for Constellation Brands from $155 to $135 while maintaining a Neutral rating [1]. - The downgrade is attributed to the anticipated negative impact of GLP-1 weight loss drugs on US alcohol sales, which could create an additional annual headwind of 30-70 basis points [1]. Group 2: Sales and Volume Growth Estimates - Constellation Brands has revised its full fiscal year guidance, lowering its comparable earnings per share expectation to a range of $11.30 to $11.60, down from $12.60 to $12.90 [4]. - The company now expects organic net sales to decline by 4% to 6% in fiscal 2026, a significant change from the previous estimate of 1% growth to a 2% decline [4]. - Piper Sandler has reduced its estimate of beer volume growth for Constellation's fiscal fourth quarter of 2026 by approximately 1.0 percentage points and by about 1.5 percentage points for each quarter starting in fiscal first quarter of 2027 [3]. Group 3: Market Context - The alcohol industry is experiencing a negative trend, with beer sales already facing a decline of 4.7% [1]. - The introduction of higher alcohol by volume beverages is expected to exert additional pressure on volume sales, potentially resulting in a percentage point or more of volume strain [3]. Group 4: Company Overview - Constellation Brands, Inc. produces a variety of alcoholic beverages, including beer, wine, and spirits, and is known for its popular brands such as Corona, Modelo, Robert Mondavi Winery, and Kim Crawford [5].

Core Insights - Constellation Brands has seen a significant decline in stock value, dropping over 40% in the past three years while the S&P 500 increased by over 70% [1] - The company faces long-term challenges including stalled growth, rising tariffs, and substantial losses [1] Revenue Breakdown - In fiscal 2025, Constellation generated 84% of its revenue from beer, 14% from wine, and 4% from spirits [3] - Beer revenue growth has decreased from 11% in FY 2023 to 5% in FY 2025, while wine and spirits segments have seen negative growth [4] Challenges Faced - The beer business has been impacted by changing consumer preferences, particularly among younger demographics, and economic pressures on Hispanic consumers [4][5] - Rising tariffs on aluminum cans and supply chain issues in Mexico have forced price increases, further slowing growth [5] - The wine and spirits segments have struggled as consumers shifted away from cheaper brands, leading to a focus on higher-end products but resulting in reduced revenues [6] Future Projections - In the first half of fiscal 2026, revenue fell 10% year over year, with expectations of further declines in beer, wine, and spirits sales [8] - Analysts predict total revenue will drop 11% in fiscal 2026 but may stabilize in fiscal 2027 and grow by 3% in fiscal 2028 [9] Profitability Outlook - Constellation turned unprofitable in fiscal 2022 and 2023 due to poor investments but is expected to return to profitability in fiscal 2026 [10][11] - Analysts forecast GAAP earnings per share (EPS) growth of 18% in fiscal 2027 and 4% in fiscal 2028, despite a projected decline in non-GAAP EPS in fiscal 2026 [11] Stock Valuation - The stock trades at 12 times forward adjusted earnings estimates with a forward dividend yield of 2.9%, indicating limited downside potential [13] - However, upside potential may be constrained until the company demonstrates a sustainable business model [13]

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands is facing significant challenges, including declining sales and rising tariffs, but there are signs that the stock may be oversold, potentially leading to a recovery in 2026 [1][9]. Company Performance - In the first half of fiscal 2026, Constellation Brands reported net sales of $5 billion, a decrease of over 10% compared to previous periods [4]. - The company earned $982 million during this period, an increase attributed to a goodwill impairment of nearly $2.3 billion in the first half of fiscal 2024 [4]. - The stock has lost almost 35% of its value over the last year [4]. Market Position - The current market capitalization of Constellation Brands is $26 billion, with a current stock price of $147.42 [5][6]. - The stock has a 52-week range of $126.45 to $240.32, indicating significant volatility [6]. Valuation and Dividends - The goodwill impairment has raised the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to 21, but the forward P/E of 13 is considered low [7]. - Constellation Brands has consistently paid and increased its dividend since 2015, with a current annual payout of $4.08 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 2.8% [7]. Cash Flow and Share Buybacks - The company is projected to generate between $1.3 billion and $1.4 billion in free cash flow in fiscal 2026, sufficient to cover its annual dividend cost of approximately $725 million [8]. - The outstanding share count has decreased by over 3% in the last year, which may enhance the potential for share price recovery [8]. Future Outlook - Despite concerns over declining alcohol consumption and rising tariffs, the stock's 40% decline suggests that investors may have overreacted [9]. - Buying Constellation stock now allows investors to enter at a low valuation while benefiting from a high and rising dividend return, which could increase demand for shares [10].

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands is currently undervalued following a significant sell-off, with a 41% decline in stock price over the past year compared to a 12% gain in the S&P 500 index [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's top beer brands, including Corona and Modelo, have experienced declining sales due to economic pressures on consumers, contributing to a 15% year-over-year decline in total revenue last quarter [2][4]. - Despite the sales decline, Constellation Brands generated over $1.8 billion in free cash flow over the last four quarters, indicating strong profit generation capabilities even during downturns [8]. - The company has maintained a dividend payout of 39% of its free cash flow over the past year, with a forward dividend yield of 2.87% [8]. Group 2: Strategic Initiatives - Management is focusing on long-term growth by divesting lower-end wine and spirits brands, such as the recent sale of Svedka vodka for $409 million, to invest in more profitable premium segments [5][6]. - Proceeds from asset sales are being utilized for share buybacks, debt repayments, and investments in beer brands, which are expected to drive long-term earnings growth [6]. Group 3: Market Position - Constellation Brands holds distribution rights to popular imported beer brands in the U.S., retaining top market share positions despite recent sales challenges [4][5]. - The stock is currently trading at 13.7 times free cash flow, suggesting it may present a buying opportunity as the business stabilizes and revenue growth resumes [7].

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Core Insights - Constellation Brands (STZ) has seen a significant 41% decline in stock price over the past 12 months, indicating potential challenges in the market [1] Company Overview - Constellation Brands is an international producer of beer, wine, and spirits, which positions itself defensively in the market [1] - The company offers dividend income and maintains above-market margins, which may provide some resilience against market fluctuations [1]