Group 1: Fund Performance - Artisan Mid Cap Value Fund's Investor Class fund ARTQX returned 0.97%, Advisor Class fund APDQX posted a return of 0.98%, and Institutional Class fund APHQX returned 0.97% in Q3 2025, compared to a 6.18% return for the Russell Midcap Value Index [1] - The equity markets continued to rally in Q3 2025, driven by strong corporate earnings, rising AI capital expenditures, and expectations for economic support from US fiscal policy and lower interest rates [1] Group 2: Constellation Brands, Inc. Overview - Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ) produces and distributes beer, wine, and spirits, with a market capitalization of $24.573 billion as of January 2, 2026 [2] - The stock's one-month return was -0.58%, and it lost 36.68% of its value over the last 52 weeks [2] Group 3: Constellation Brands, Inc. Performance Analysis - Constellation Brands was the weakest performer outside of health care, with growth slowing significantly over the past year [3] - The company is USMCA compliant, but faces demand headwinds in its core Hispanic consumer market due to elevated inflation and recent immigration raids affecting social activity [3] - The US beer market is stagnating, with younger demographics shifting away from alcohol, yet Constellation Brands has maintained a loyal customer base and gained market share over the past 20 years, particularly with its Modelo Especial brand [3] - The company is focusing on growing its smaller brands, Pacifico and Victoria, while enhancing product offerings for its established brands [3] - Constellation Brands' valuation is compelling at 12X next year's forecast earnings compared to its five-year average of 18X, indicating potential for recovery as company-specific headwinds dissipate [3]

Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. launched a military strike on Venezuela, extracting President Nicolás Maduro to face criminal charges in the U.S. [2] - President Trump stated that the U.S. would "run" Venezuela until an orderly transition is possible and that U.S. oil companies would rebuild Venezuela's oil infrastructure [2][3] Market Reactions - Investors are expected to closely monitor developments in Venezuela and seek more details from the Trump administration, particularly regarding the oil market, which may experience volatility [3] Employment and Economic Data - The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the December jobs report, which could influence interest rates [6] - Federal Reserve officials indicated that a weakening labor market might lead to more interest rate cuts, with upcoming reports on job openings, private sector hiring, and jobless claims providing insights into the labor market [7] Corporate Earnings Reports - Applied Digital, a data center operator, will report on the AI industry, with investors looking for signals of strong AI spending [9] - Constellation Brands, Tilray Brands, Albertsons Companies, CalMaine Foods, and Simply Good Foods are among the companies reporting earnings this week, providing insights into consumer spending levels [10][11]

Economic Data Release - The week will begin with ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing Prices data for December on Monday [2] - S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI for December will be released on Tuesday [2] - JOLTS Job Openings for November and ADP Nonfarm Employment numbers for December are scheduled for Wednesday [2] - Initial Jobless Claims data will be released on Thursday [2] - Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment numbers for December are due on Friday [2] Earnings Reports - Constellation Brands, Marks & Spencer, Albertsons, and Applied Digital will report their earnings on Wednesday [3][4] - Tesco PLC is set to report earnings on Thursday [4] Market Events - The CES conference in Las Vegas will focus on AI, robotics, digital health, and mobility, featuring keynote speeches from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang [5] - IREN Limited and GameStop are expected to experience volatility based on options volume [4] - The analyst quiet period will expire for Lumexa, Wealthfront, JM Group, and Cardinal Infrastructure, allowing analysts to post ratings [4]

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands, Inc. is expected to report declines in both revenue and earnings for the third quarter of fiscal 2026, with earnings estimated at $2.66 per share, reflecting an 18.2% decrease year-over-year, and revenues projected at $2.2 billion, indicating an 11.6% decline from the previous year [1][2]. Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is $2.66 per share, down 18.2% from the same quarter last year [2]. - Revenue expectations are set at $2.2 billion, which is an 11.6% decline compared to the prior-year quarter [2]. - In the last reported quarter, the company achieved an earnings surprise of 7.7%, with an average earnings beat of 4.2% over the last four quarters [3]. Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Constellation Brands, as it holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) and an Earnings ESP of +3.58% [4]. Key Factors Impacting Q3 Results - The anticipated results are influenced by sluggish performance in the wine and spirits segment due to decreased shipment volumes, affected by the SVEDKA and 2025 Wine divestitures, as well as changes in distributor contractual obligations [5]. - Increased costs from packaging and raw materials due to inflation, along with higher depreciation and operating costs from brewery expansions, are expected to negatively impact operating income [6]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is progressing with capacity expansion plans in Mexico to meet demand for its high-end Mexican beer portfolio, including hard seltzers [7]. - Constellation Brands is focusing on premiumization, successfully transitioning its portfolio towards higher-end brands that align with consumer trends, with key growth drivers being its high-end Power Brands [8]. Valuation Insights - Constellation Brands is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 11.22X, which is below its five-year high of 23.57X and the industry average of 15.11X, indicating an attractive investment opportunity despite expected near-term declines [9][10]. - The stock has underperformed recently, losing 2.9% over the past three months compared to the industry’s growth of 1.9% [11].

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands is expected to report a decline in quarterly earnings while revenue is projected to increase slightly compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Expectations - The company will release its third-quarter earnings results on January 7, 2025, after the market closes [1] - Analysts predict earnings of $2.64 per share, down from $3.25 per share in the same quarter last year [1] - The consensus estimate for quarterly revenue is $2.16 billion, an increase from $2.46 billion a year earlier [1] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Price Target - Jefferies analyst Kaumil Gajrawala downgraded Constellation Brands from Buy to Hold and reduced the price target from $170 to $154 [2] Group 3: Dividend Information - Constellation Brands currently offers an annual dividend yield of 2.96%, translating to a quarterly dividend of $1.02 per share, or $4.08 annually [2] - To achieve a monthly income of $500 from dividends, an investment of approximately $202,939 or around 1,471 shares is required [3] - For a more modest monthly income of $100, an investment of $40,560 or around 294 shares is needed [3] Group 4: Dividend Yield Calculation - The dividend yield is calculated by dividing the annual dividend payment by the stock's current price [4] - Changes in stock price directly affect the dividend yield; for instance, if the stock price increases, the yield decreases, and vice versa [4][5] - If a company increases its dividend while the stock price remains constant, the yield will increase [5] Group 5: Current Stock Performance - As of the latest publication, Constellation Brands shares were up 0.26% at $138.31 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Constellation Brands is expected to report a significant decline in quarterly earnings and revenues, with earnings per share projected at $2.66, down 18.2% year-over-year, and revenues forecasted at $2.18 billion, reflecting an 11.6% decrease [1]. Earnings Estimates - There has been no revision in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter over the last 30 days, indicating that analysts have maintained their initial forecasts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Key Metrics Projections - Analysts estimate 'Net Sales- Wine and Spirits' to be $170.25 million, representing a decline of 60.5% from the previous year [5]. - The consensus for 'Net Sales- Beer' is projected at $2.01 billion, indicating a slight decrease of 1% year-over-year [5]. - 'Operating Income- Wine and Spirits' is expected to be $10.85 million, a significant drop from $95.20 million in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Operating Income- Beer' is projected to reach $729.44 million, down from $769.90 million year-over-year [6]. Stock Performance - Constellation Brands shares have increased by 1.7% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which rose by 0.8% [6]. - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell), suggesting it is expected to underperform the overall market in the near term [6].

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a year-over-year decline in earnings for Constellation Brands due to lower revenues, with actual results being crucial for stock price movement [1][2]. Earnings Expectations - Constellation Brands is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.66 per share, reflecting an 18.2% decrease year-over-year, and revenues are projected to be $2.18 billion, down 11.6% from the previous year [3]. Estimate Revisions - The consensus EPS estimate has remained unchanged over the last 30 days, indicating a stable outlook from covering analysts [4]. Earnings Surprise Prediction - The Most Accurate Estimate for Constellation Brands is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, resulting in an Earnings ESP of +3.58%, suggesting a recent bullish sentiment among analysts [12]. Historical Performance - In the last reported quarter, Constellation Brands exceeded the expected earnings of $3.37 per share by delivering $3.63, achieving a surprise of +7.72% [13]. Over the past four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates twice [14]. Overall Assessment - Despite a positive Earnings ESP, the stock carries a Zacks Rank of 4, making it challenging to predict an earnings beat conclusively [12]. An earnings beat or miss may not solely dictate stock movement, as other factors can influence investor sentiment [15].

Next Wednesday sees a notable increase in earnings, with nine companies reporting. Key reports include consumer staples giant Constellation Brands Inc. after close and financials firm Jefferies Financial Group Inc. also after close. Albertsons Companies Inc. Class A leads a group of retail and industrials companies reporting pre-market on Wednesday, including MSC Industrial Direct Company Inc., Cal-Maine Foods Inc., Unifirst Corporation, and AZZ Inc.. Additionally, AAR Corp. and technology companies Penguin ...

Group 1 - The article provides a market analysis focusing on Constellation Brands Inc Class A and Molson Coors Brewing Co Class B, highlighting their performance and market trends [1] Group 2 - Constellation Brands has shown significant growth in its premium beer segment, contributing to an increase in overall revenue [1] - Molson Coors Brewing has been adapting its product offerings to meet changing consumer preferences, which has impacted its market share [1]

18 December 2025 U.S. Consumer Strategy & Quantitative Research U.S. Consumer Strategy; have we reached capitulation yet & should we prepare for a sector rotation? Webinar Transcript Alexia Howard +1 917 344 8453 alexia.howard@bernsteinsg.com Danilo Gargiulo +1 917 344 8475 danilo.gargiulo@bernsteinsg.com Zhihan Ma, CFA +1 917 344 8303 zhihan.ma@bernsteinsg.com Nadine Sarwat, CFA +44 20 7676 6849 nadine.sarwat@bernsteinsg.com Aneesha Sherman +1 917 344 8457 aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.com Cinnie Lin +1 917 ...