Key Takeaways Molson Coors faces weak U.S. beer demand and softer volumes in its Americas segment.TAP expects 2025 sales to fall 3-4% and underlying EPS to decline 7-10% year over year.Molson Coors' Revitalization Plan and premiumization aim to cushion pressure from costs and competition.Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) is expected to register top and bottom-line declines when it reports fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Feb. 18, after market close. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $2 ...

Wall Street analysts expect Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) to post quarterly earnings of $1.17 per share in its upcoming report, which indicates a year-over-year decline of 10%. Revenues are expected to be $2.73 billion, down 0.4% from the year-ago quarter.Over the past 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged. This demonstrates the covering analysts' collective reassessment of their initial projections during this period.Ahead of a company's earnings disclosure, it is crucial ...

Core Viewpoint - Molson Coors Beverage Company has faced challenges in the market, with its stock underperforming compared to broader indices, despite a year-to-date increase in share price. Group 1: Company Overview - Molson Coors Beverage Company, based in Chicago, Illinois, has a market capitalization of $10.2 billion and produces a variety of malt beverages, including flavored malt beverages, hard seltzers, craft spirits, and ready-to-drink products [1]. Group 2: Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, shares of Molson Coors (TAP) have declined by 6.3%, while the S&P 500 Index has increased by 15.6% [2]. - Year-to-date, TAP's stock is up 9%, outperforming the S&P 500's return of 1.7% [2]. - TAP has also underperformed the Invesco Food & Beverage ETF, which rose by 6.1% over the past 52 weeks and 11.8% year-to-date [3]. Group 3: Financial Performance - In Q3, TAP reported a 2.3% year-over-year decline in net sales to $3 billion, missing Wall Street estimates by 1.7% [5]. - The adjusted EPS for Q3 decreased by 7.2% from the previous year to $1.67, falling short of analyst expectations of $1.72 [5]. - Analysts project a 9.7% year-over-year decline in EPS for the current fiscal year, estimating it to be $5.38 [6]. Group 4: Analyst Ratings - Among 20 analysts covering TAP, the consensus rating is a "Hold," with ratings including four "Strong Buy," one "Moderate Buy," 13 "Hold," and two "Strong Sell" [6]. - An analyst from AllianceBernstein maintained a "Hold" rating on TAP with a price target of $50, indicating a potential upside of 41.5% from the current levels based on the Street-high price target of $72 [9].

Core Viewpoint - Recent insider buying at major snack food companies indicates confidence in the U.S. snack food market despite concerns over appetite-suppressing GLP-1 drugs [2][3] Group 1: Insider Buying Activity - Insiders purchased nearly $5 million worth of shares across Utz Brands, Coca-Cola, Hershey, and Molson Coors, suggesting strong belief in the sector's resilience [3] - At Utz Brands, insiders bought $2.6 million worth of stock between $9.86 and $10.58 per share from early November to the end of December [3] - A director at Coca-Cola bought $998,000 worth of stock at $69.87 to $70.31 per share, marking the first insider purchase since June 2022 [4] - Two directors at Molson Coors collectively bought $450,000 worth of shares between $44.70 to $46.79 in early November [4] - At Hershey, the CEO and two directors bought $445,000 worth of stock at around $186, with the CEO contributing $371,000, marking the first insider buys since 2019 [5] Group 2: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Research from Circana indicates that 48.8% of consumers snacked three or more times a day last year, an increase of 2.7 percentage points from 2024 [6] - While some snack food companies are experiencing soft sales, the overall market remains appealing to insiders [6] - Snack food companies are responding to market challenges by introducing "healthier" products, such as Utz Brands' Boulder Canyon line made with avocado or olive oil [6]

Core Viewpoint - During turbulent market conditions, investors often seek dividend-yielding stocks, which typically have high free cash flows and provide substantial dividends to shareholders [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - Investors are increasingly turning to dividend-yielding stocks as a strategy during market uncertainty [1]. Group 2: Analyst Ratings - The article highlights the ratings of the most accurate analysts for three high-yielding stocks in the consumer staples sector [2]. - The identified companies include PepsiCo Inc (NASDAQ:PEP), Molson Coors Beverage Co (NYSE:TAP), and J M Smucker Co (NYSE:SJM) [3].

Core Insights - Fairfax Financial's latest 13F indicates a strong commitment to real assets, energy, and restructuring platforms with minimal portfolio turnover, reflecting satisfaction with current holdings rather than tactical changes [1] Company Summaries - **Orla Mining (ORLA)**: Maintained a position of 56.8 million shares valued at $610.5 million, representing approximately 29.6% of the portfolio, indicating confidence in asset durability and inflation hedging [2] - **Occidental Petroleum (OXY)**: Held 6.05 million shares worth $285.9 million, about 13.9% of the portfolio, with no changes made, suggesting satisfaction with risk/reward dynamics as the company focuses on deleveraging [3] - **BlackBerry (BB)**: Reduced position by 5,389,380 shares to 35.4 million shares valued at $172.3 million, approximately 8.4% of the portfolio, reflecting a pragmatic de-risking approach amid ongoing restructuring [4] - **Kraft Heinz (KHC)**: Increased position by 235,000 shares to 5.12 million shares valued at $133.2 million, around 6.5% of the portfolio, consistent with a strategy of accumulating cash flow at discounted valuations [5] - **Molson Coors (TAP)**: Added 71,571 shares for a total of 1.29 million shares valued at $58.4 million, approximately 2.8% of the portfolio, indicating a preference for staples with pricing power [6] - **Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)**: Trimmed position by 14,652 shares to 58,248 shares valued at $35.7 million, about 1.7% of the portfolio, reflecting a strategy to reduce passive index exposure [7] - **Helmrich & Payne (HP)**: Increased position by 200,000 shares to 1.17 million shares valued at $25.9 million, approximately 1.3% of the portfolio, indicating a thematic bet on energy services and capital discipline [8] - **Full Exits**: Autohome (ATHM) and Lifeway Foods (LWAY) were fully exited, reflecting a cleanup of non-core positions [9] Portfolio Themes - **Low Turnover = High Conviction**: The stability of the portfolio suggests that Fairfax is already positioned for the macro environment anticipated last year [11] - **Hard Asset & Energy Bias**: The focus on ORLA, OXY, and HP highlights a preference for inflation hedging and real asset valuations [12] - **Restructuring Optionality**: BlackBerry is viewed as a multi-year operational value unlock rather than a growth investment [13] - **Cash Flow Defensives**: KHC and TAP are seen as providing income stability and potential for margin recovery [14] Takeaway - Fairfax remains committed to a strategy focused on value and optionality rather than momentum or AI trends, emphasizing hard assets and cash-flow consumers to realize intrinsic value [15]

Core Insights - The article highlights the investment strategies of Paul Franke, a seasoned investor with 39 years of trading experience, emphasizing his contrarian stock selection style and the development of a system called "Victory Formation" for identifying stocks based on supply/demand imbalances [1] Group 1: Investment Strategies - Paul Franke suggests using a diversified approach by owning at least 50 well-positioned stocks to achieve regular stock market outperformance [1] - The "Bottom Fishing Club" articles focus on deep value candidates or stocks that are experiencing a significant reversal in technical momentum [1] - The "Volume Breakout Report" articles discuss positive trend changes supported by strong price and volume trading action [1] Group 2: Performance and Recognition - Franke was consistently ranked among the top investment advisors nationally during the 1990s and was ranked 1 in the Motley Fool® CAPS stock picking contest during parts of 2008 and 2009, out of over 60,000 portfolios [1] - As of December 2025, he was ranked in the Top 4% of bloggers by TipRanks® for 12-month stock picking performance based on suggestions made over the last five years [1] Group 3: Risk Management - Franke recommends investors implement stop-loss levels of 10% or 20% on individual stock choices to manage risk effectively [1]

Company Performance - Boston Beer reported Q3 revenue of $537.5 million, down 11.2% year-over-year, but expanded gross margin to 50.8% [2][5] - Molson Coors generated $11.21 billion in trailing twelve-month revenue, with a 2.3% year-over-year decline, but achieved a 17.5% increase in EBITDA to $2.55 billion [2][4] Brand Performance - Boston Beer's flagship brand, Twisted Tea, declined 5% in measured off-premise channels, while the flavored malt beverage category fell only 3% [3][7] - Sun Cruiser, a new vodka tea innovation from Boston Beer, became the fourth-largest brand in the ready-to-drink spirits category, with distribution tripling [3][7] Strategic Focus - Boston Beer is focusing on premiumization and category creation, producing 90% of its volume internally in Q3 2025, up from 66% the previous year, which contributed to gross margin expansion [6][7] - Molson Coors maintained stability with core brands like Coors Light and Miller Lite holding market share despite a contracting market [4][7]

Sector Overview - Vice stocks experienced mixed performance in 2025, with Philip Morris International rising nearly 34% and AB InBev increasing about 29%, while Molson Coors fell 18% [1] - Despite challenges, vice stocks are considered "recession-proof" and are expected to remain resilient in the market [2] Cannabis Industry - President Trump signed an executive order reclassifying marijuana from Schedule 1 to Schedule 3, marking a significant regulatory change for the cannabis sector [4] - Companies in the cannabis industry are facing difficulties accessing financial services and capital, leading to investor wariness [4] Nicotine Market - The shift towards smokeless products is evident, with 41% of Philip Morris's revenue derived from smoke-free products like Zyn [4] - Philip Morris successfully defended against a class-action lawsuit regarding pricing practices for Zyn, the only FDA-approved nicotine pouch [4] Alcohol Sector - Sales of beer, wine, and spirits are declining, with Molson Coors reporting a loss of $2.9 billion in the fall quarter and anticipating a 4% sales drop this year [4] - AB InBev reported its slowest profit growth since 2021, while the industry faces challenges from the "sober-curious" trend [4]

Core Insights - Molson Coors Beverage Company's outlook is primarily influenced by declining volumes in the beer industry, particularly in the United States, leading to a 3.3% year-over-year decline in consolidated net sales for Q3 2025 [1][10] - The company reported brand volumes fell approximately 4%-5% in Q3 2025, while the U.S. beer industry experienced a decline of about 4.7% [2][10] - Despite a net price realization improvement of around 1%-2%, it was insufficient to counterbalance the volume declines, prompting management to guide for a 3%-4% decline in net sales and a 12%-15% drop in underlying pretax income for 2025 [3][10] Industry Context - The volume challenges faced by Molson Coors are reflective of broader industry trends, including shifting consumer preferences, increased living costs, and reduced demand among lower-income consumers, alongside sluggish European markets [4][5] - The beer consumption landscape in the U.S. continues to be pressured, indicating that the industry slowdown may not be solely cyclical but could persist if demand does not improve [4][5] Strategic Response - In response to these challenges, Molson Coors is focusing on restructuring, prioritizing its portfolio, and investing in core and premium brands to stabilize performance [5] - However, unless there is a significant improvement in industry volumes, the ongoing volume decline is expected to remain the primary obstacle to the company's outlook for 2025, overshadowing effective pricing and cost control measures [5] Stock Performance - Molson Coors shares have decreased by 4.6% over the past six months, which is better than the Zacks Beverages - Soft Drinks industry's decline of 8.4% and the broader Consumer Staples sector's fall of 6.3% [6]