Group 1: Earnings Performance - Molson Coors Brewing reported quarterly earnings of $0.50 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.80 per share, and down from $0.95 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -37.50% [1] - The company posted revenues of $2.3 billion for the quarter ended March 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.51%, and down from $2.6 billion year-over-year [2] Group 2: Stock Performance and Outlook - Molson Coors shares have lost about 0.8% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has declined by -4.3% [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $2.04 on revenues of $3.25 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $6.35 on revenues of $11.64 billion [7] Group 3: Industry Context - The Beverages - Alcohol industry, to which Molson Coors belongs, is currently in the bottom 42% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, suggesting that investors should monitor these revisions closely [5]

FY 2025 RESULTS & OUTLOOK Q1 FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENTS & OTHER INFORMATION This presentation includes "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the U.S. federal securities laws. Generally, the words "expects," "intend," "goals," "plans," "believes," "continues," "may," "anticipate," "seek," "estimate," "outlook," "trends," "future benefits," "potential," "projects," "strategies," "implies," and variations of such words and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. St ...

Financial Performance - Net sales decreased by 11.3% to $2,304.1 million, with a 10.4% decline in constant currency[6] - U.S. GAAP income before income taxes fell by 41.1% to $156.3 million, while underlying income before income taxes decreased by 49.5% in constant currency to $131.1 million[6] - U.S. GAAP net income attributable to Molson Coors was $121.0 million, or $0.59 per diluted share, representing a 39.2% decline[6] - The Americas segment reported net sales of $1,881.8 million, down 12.3%, with financial volumes decreasing by 15.6%[13] - EMEA&APAC segment net sales decreased by 6.0% to $427.3 million, driven by a 9.7% decline in financial volumes[21] - Financial volumes decreased by 14.3%, primarily due to lower shipments in both the Americas and EMEA&APAC segments[11] - Financial and brand volumes decreased by 9.7% and 9.8%, respectively, due to lower volumes across all regions driven by soft market demand and heightened competition[23] - Net income for Q1 2025 was $123.1 million, down from $209.9 million in Q1 2024, representing a decrease of 41.3%[40] - Consolidated net sales for Q1 2025 were $2,304.1 million, a decline of 11.3% compared to $2,596.4 million in Q1 2024[41] - The Americas segment reported net sales of $1,881.8 million in Q1 2025, down 12.3% from $2,145.4 million in Q1 2024[41] - Total Worldwide Brand Volume decreased by 8.0% to 15.547 million hectoliters for the three months ended March 31, 2025, compared to 16.899 million hectoliters in the same period of 2024[45] Cash Flow and Debt - Net cash used in operating activities was $90.7 million for Q1 2025, compared to net cash provided of $25.4 million for Q1 2024, primarily due to lower net income adjusted for non-cash items[24] - Cash and cash equivalents decreased to $412.7 million at the end of Q1 2025 from $969.3 million at the beginning of the year, a decline of 57.5%[40] - The company experienced a net cash outflow from operating activities of $90.7 million in Q1 2025, compared to a cash inflow of $25.4 million in Q1 2024[40] - Total current liabilities decreased to $2,865.8 million as of March 31, 2025, from $3,045.2 million as of December 31, 2024, a reduction of 5.9%[39] - Total debt as of March 31, 2025, was $6,237.8 million, resulting in a net debt to underlying EBITDA ratio of 2.47x, up from 2.29x as of March 31, 2024[30] - As of March 31, 2025, the net debt stood at $5,825.1 million, slightly up from $5,759.3 million a year earlier[62] - The net debt to underlying EBITDA ratio increased to 2.47 as of March 31, 2025, compared to 2.29 in the previous year, indicating a higher leverage position[62] Guidance and Future Outlook - The company updated its 2025 full year guidance, projecting a low single-digit decline in net sales on a constant currency basis, compared to a previous expectation of low single-digit growth[6] - Capital expenditures for 2025 are now expected to be approximately $650 million, down from a previous estimate of $750 million[6] - The company adjusted its 2025 guidance due to impacts from the global macroeconomic environment on the beer industry and consumer trends[27] Operational Metrics - Gross profit for Q1 2025 was $850.9 million, down from $963.5 million in Q1 2024[38] - Underlying (Non-GAAP) free cash flow was $1.3 billion, plus or minus 10%[30] - The company's underlying income before income taxes for Q1 2025 was $131.1 million, down 49.3% from $258.8 million in Q1 2024[41] - The underlying EBITDA (Non-GAAP) for Q1 2025 was $353.3 million, down from $476.2 million in Q1 2024, marking a decline of approximately 26%[63] - U.S. GAAP depreciation and amortization for Q1 2025 was $180.3 million, up from $169.0 million in Q1 2024, reflecting increased asset depreciation[59] Investments and Partnerships - The company is focusing on premiumization initiatives and has formed an exclusive partnership with Fever-Tree to enhance its nonalcoholic operations[5] - The company made an investment in Fevertree Drinks plc, recording a gain of $25.7 million as an unrealized fair value adjustment[55] Tax and Other Adjustments - The effective tax rate remained flat at 21% compared to the prior year[12] - The company recorded total non-GAAP adjustment items of $(25.2) million for Q1 2025, compared to $(6.6) million in Q1 2024, indicating increased adjustments impacting financial results[56][57] - Accelerated depreciation of $17.9 million was recorded in Q1 2025 due to the decision to wind down certain U.S. craft businesses, impacting overall depreciation expenses[59]

Company Overview - Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) is headquartered in Golden and operates in the Consumer Staples sector [3] - The stock has experienced a price change of 0.21% since the beginning of the year [3] Dividend Information - Molson Coors currently pays a dividend of $0.47 per share, resulting in a dividend yield of 3.27% [3] - The Beverages - Alcohol industry's average yield is 0.49%, while the S&P 500's yield is 1.59% [3] - The company's annualized dividend of $1.88 has increased by 6.8% from the previous year [4] - Over the past five years, Molson Coors has raised its dividend four times, averaging an annual increase of 8.52% [4] - The current payout ratio is 29%, indicating that 29% of its trailing 12-month EPS has been distributed as dividends [4] Earnings Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molson Coors' earnings in 2025 is projected at $6.36 per share, reflecting an expected increase of 6.71% from the previous year [5] Investment Considerations - Dividends are favored by investors for various reasons, including improving stock investing profits and providing tax advantages [6] - Established firms with secure profits are typically viewed as the best dividend options, while high-growth businesses often do not offer dividends [7] - TAP is considered a compelling investment opportunity due to its strong dividend profile and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [7]

Core Viewpoint - Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) is anticipated to report declines in both revenue and earnings for the first quarter of 2025, with revenues expected at $2.4 billion, reflecting a 6% decrease year-over-year, and earnings per share projected at 80 cents, down 15.8% from the previous year [1] Financial Performance - In the last reported quarter, Molson Coors achieved an earnings surprise of 15%, with an average earnings surprise of 18.1% over the trailing four quarters [2] - The Zacks Model indicates a potential earnings beat for TAP, supported by a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) and an Earnings ESP of +4.01% [3] Market Trends and Growth Drivers - TAP has shown strong brand resilience, particularly in the U.S. market, with core brands like Coors Light and Miller Lite performing well, and Coors Banquet experiencing notable volume growth [4] - The company's Acceleration Plan has facilitated market share gains through innovation and premiumization, with strategic investments in core brands contributing to top-line growth [5] - Enhanced digital capabilities and expansion of brewing and packaging operations in the U.K. have been driven by the success of the Madri brand [6] - Strong performance in the EMEA and APAC segments, along with growth in Canada, has been supported by favorable net pricing and higher brand volumes [7] Challenges and Cost Pressures - The company faces challenges from inflationary pressures on raw materials and manufacturing costs, as well as an unfavorable product mix, which management has indicated will impact costs of goods sold (COGS) [8] - The evolving global macroeconomic environment, including geopolitical tensions and trade policy shifts, creates uncertainty that may affect consumer behavior and financial performance [9] - One-time transition and integration costs related to the partnership with Fever-Tree are expected to impact underlying financials for the first quarter [10] Valuation Perspective - Molson Coors is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 8.87X, which is below its five-year high of 15.57X and the industry average of 16.25X, indicating an attractive investment opportunity [12] - Over the past three months, TAP shares have increased by 5.9%, compared to the industry's growth of 17.4% [13]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) will report quarterly earnings of $0.80 per share, reflecting a 15.8% decline year over year, with revenues expected to reach $2.44 billion, down 6% from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 0.3% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate trends and short-term stock price movements [3]. Key Metrics Forecast - Analysts estimate 'Net Sales- EMEA&APAC' at $451.89 million, a decrease of 0.6% from the prior-year quarter [5]. - 'Net Sales- Americas' is projected at $1.96 billion, reflecting an 8.7% decline from the same quarter last year [5]. - 'Brand Volume - Consolidated' is expected to reach 16.52 million, down from 16.9 million year-over-year [5]. Brand Volumes - 'Brand Volumes - Americas' is estimated at 12.42 million, compared to 12.89 million in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Brand Volumes - EMEA&APAC' is projected at 3.82 million, down from 4.01 million in the same quarter last year [6]. Operating Income - The consensus for 'Operating income(loss)- Americas' is $271.60 million, a decrease from $320.60 million reported in the same quarter last year [7]. - Molson Coors shares have declined by 5.9% in the past month, contrasting with a 0.4% increase in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [7].

Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2025. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.The earnings report, which is expected to be released on May 8, 2025, might help the stock move higher if these key numbers are better than ...

Market Overview - Wall Street experienced significant losses, with the Dow recording back-to-back losses exceeding 1,500 points on April 3 and 4, including a drop of 2,231 points on April 4, marking one of the highest single-day declines in history [4] - The S&P 500 index fell more than 10% over the last two trading days of the previous week, with a 6% drop on April 6, its worst day since March 2020, currently in correction territory with a 17% decline from its February peak [5] - The Nasdaq Composite also plummeted 6% on each of the last two trading days, now in bear territory with a 22% drop from its recent high, while the CBOE VIX reached 45 on April 4, indicating extreme market fear [6] Defensive Stocks Recommendations - Investing in defensive sectors such as consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare is recommended, with five stocks identified: Molson Coors Beverage Co. (TAP), CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP), WEC Energy Group Inc. (WEC), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), and HCA Healthcare Inc. (HCA) [3][7] Company Insights Molson Coors Beverage Co. (TAP) - TAP has shown strong performance in Canada and EMEA&APAC, with Q4 2024 results surpassing estimates and year-over-year earnings growth [11] - Projected sales growth for 2025 is in low-single digits, with underlying EPS expected to grow in high-single digits [12] - Current revenue and earnings growth rates are 0.1% and 6.9%, respectively, with a dividend yield of 3.07% [13] CenterPoint Energy Inc. (CNP) - CNP is positioned to benefit from rising electricity demand due to the electrification of transportation and investments in renewable energy [14] - The company is investing in infrastructure to support electric vehicle (EV) growth, including off-road electrification initiatives [16] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 3.2% and 8%, respectively, with a dividend yield of 2.44% [17] WEC Energy Group Inc. (WEC) - WEC is benefiting from both organic and inorganic growth, with strategic investments aimed at enhancing infrastructure and achieving net carbon neutrality by 2050 [18] - Demand from commercial and residential customers is improving, with expected revenue growth in the 2025-2027 period [19] - Current revenue and earnings growth rates are 9.2% and 8.5%, respectively, with a dividend yield of 3.42% [20] Abbott Laboratories (ABT) - ABT utilizes AI for healthcare solutions, including advanced medical imaging and predictive algorithms for heart attack prevention [21] - The company holds a strong position in point-of-care testing across various health areas [22] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 5.9% and 10.3%, respectively, with a dividend yield of 1.90% [23] HCA Healthcare Inc. (HCA) - HCA's revenues are increasing due to growth in admissions and surgeries, with projected revenues for 2025 between $72.8 billion and $75.8 billion, indicating a 5.2% rise from 2024 [24] - The company has benefited from acquisitions and its telemedicine business, with operating cash flows rising 11.5% year over year in 2024 [25] - Expected revenue and earnings growth rates for the current year are 5.8% and 13.8%, respectively, with a dividend yield of 0.87% [25]

Core Viewpoint - Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) has outperformed the industry and broader market due to its focus on premiumization, innovation, and brand revitalization, resulting in a stock price increase of 10.8% over the past three months compared to the industry's 5.2% growth [1]. Stock Performance - TAP stock closed at $61.58, approaching its 52-week high of $69.18, raising investor interest regarding future growth potential [3]. - The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages of $58.02 and $55.42, respectively, indicating a continued uptrend and positive market sentiment [4]. Growth Strategy - The company is committed to growing its market share through premiumization and innovation, focusing on its above-premium portfolio [6][9]. - Core brands like Coors Light and Miller Lite have maintained strong market share gains in the U.S., with Coors Banquet showing impressive growth [10]. - In Canada, Coors Light remains the leading light beer, while the Molson family of brands has seen sustained share growth [10]. - The company is implementing targeted expansion plans in the U.S. and has seen success in the U.K. and EMEA/APAC regions through premiumization efforts [11]. Financial Projections - For 2025, the company expects sales growth in the low single digits, with underlying earnings per share (EPS) rising in the high single digits and operating profit growing in the mid-single digits [13]. - Planned price increases of 1-2% in North America and adjustments in other markets are anticipated to contribute to margin expansion [13]. - The company has retained a significant portion of its share gains and is focused on premiumization across its portfolio [14]. Investment Rationale - Molson Coors' strategic focus on premiumization, strong brand positioning, and expansion into non-alcoholic beverages positions it for sustained growth [16]. - The company is expected to benefit from continued pricing power and operational improvements, making it a compelling investment opportunity [16].

Core Insights - Investing in "sin stocks," which include companies in alcohol, tobacco, and gambling, has historically provided attractive returns despite ethical concerns due to strong cash flows and loyal customer bases [1][7] Industry Overview - Sin stocks tend to perform well in both economic booms and downturns, benefiting from stable demand, strong pricing power, and consistent dividend payouts [2] - The U.S. alcoholic beverages market is projected to grow from $543.13 billion in 2024 to $806.44 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 4.99% [4] - The global tobacco market is expected to grow from $899.9 billion in 2024 to $1,157.8 billion by 2032, achieving a CAGR of 3.2% from 2025 to 2032 [5] - The North America online gambling market was valued at $16.56 billion in 2024 and is projected to expand at a CAGR of 12.2% from 2025 to 2030 [6] Company Highlights - Altria Group (MO) dominates the tobacco industry with strong dividends due to its market presence and pricing strategy [3] - Las Vegas Sands (LVS) is positioned as a leader in the gambling sector, benefiting from the acceleration of sports betting legalization and online gaming expansion [3] - Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP) is transforming its business to align with evolving consumer preferences, focusing on premiumization and innovation [9][10] - Wynn Resorts (WYNN) is enhancing its luxury hospitality offerings and expanding into high-growth markets, including a significant project in the UAE [12][13] - Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is leading the industry toward a smoke-free future by expanding its smoke-free product portfolio and maintaining strong financial performance [15][16]