Core Viewpoint - Upstart has rebounded from a significant decline in stock price due to its innovative AI-driven loan origination platform, which is positioned to capture a substantial market opportunity in the lending industry [1][3][14]. Company Overview - Upstart went public in December 2020 at $20 per share and saw its stock price surge to $401 within a year due to low interest rates [1]. - The stock price fell 97% to around $12 in 2022 as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, reducing consumer demand for loans [2]. - As of now, Upstart's stock price has recovered to approximately $78, though it remains 80% below its all-time high [3]. AI-Driven Lending Transformation - Upstart's AI algorithm evaluates 1,600 metrics to assess borrower creditworthiness, significantly improving the speed and accuracy of loan decisions compared to traditional methods [5]. - The company automates 91% of loan decisions, allowing for a more efficient process [5]. - Upstart's AI model, Model 18, makes 1 million predictions per applicant, enhancing the fairness and accuracy of interest rate determinations [6]. Market Position and Growth - Upstart's AI approach enables it to approve double the number of loans compared to traditional methods, with interest rates approximately 38% lower on average [7]. - The company has expanded its offerings beyond unsecured personal loans to include secured car lending and home equity lines of credit (HELOC) [8]. - Demand for loans is increasing as interest rates decline, which is beneficial for Upstart's growth [8]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Upstart originated 186,786 unsecured personal loans, a 65% increase year-over-year, and 1,080 car loans, which was up 53% from the previous quarter [11]. - The company reported total revenue of $162 million in Q3 2024, a 20% increase from the same period last year, marking its highest quarterly revenue for the year [13]. - Upstart is projected to achieve $587.5 million in total revenue for 2024, a 14% increase from 2023, with further growth expected to $812.7 million in 2025, representing a 35% growth rate [15]. Valuation Metrics - Upstart's current price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 12.4, above its long-term average of 8.9, but the forward P/S ratio based on 2025 revenue forecasts is 8.8, slightly below its average [16]. - The company has identified a $3 trillion annual loan origination market across various segments, indicating significant growth potential [16][17]. - Upstart has only originated around $40 billion in loans to date, suggesting substantial room for future expansion [17].

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings, Inc. has seen significant stock performance, with a return of +55.7% over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500's +3.8% and the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry's +12.6% [1] Earnings Estimates - For the current quarter, Upstart is expected to report a loss of $0.05 per share, reflecting a +54.6% change from the same quarter last year, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate increasing by +20.4% over the last 30 days [4] - The consensus earnings estimate for the current fiscal year is -$0.62, indicating a year-over-year change of -10.7%, with an increase of +8.9% in estimates over the last month [4] - For the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate is $0.64, representing a +203.8% change from the previous year, with a +33.3% increase in estimates over the past month [5] Revenue Growth - The consensus sales estimate for the current quarter is $180.22 million, indicating a year-over-year change of +28.4% [8] - The revenue estimates for the current and next fiscal years are $597.66 million and $770.62 million, reflecting changes of +16.4% and +28.9%, respectively [8] Recent Performance - Upstart reported revenues of $162.14 million in the last quarter, a +20.5% year-over-year increase, with an EPS of -$0.06 compared to -$0.05 a year ago [9] - The company exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues by +8.14% and had an EPS surprise of +57.14%, beating consensus EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters [10] Valuation - Upstart is graded F in the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it is trading at a premium compared to its peers [14]

Core Viewpoint - Upstart's shares have surged 200% over the past six months, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 13% return, driven by stabilizing financial performance and positive quarterly results [1][2]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, Upstart reported revenue of $162 million, a 20% increase year-over-year, and a net loss per share of $0.07, both exceeding Wall Street expectations [2]. - The company experienced a total net loss of $126 million in the first nine months of 2024, with a notable improvement in Q3 2024, where the net loss was $7 million compared to $40 million in Q3 2023 [5]. Market Position and Growth - CEO Dave Girouard emphasized Upstart's commitment to strengthening its position as a leader in AI-driven fintech, indicating a return to growth despite macroeconomic challenges [3]. - Upstart's revenue in Q3 2024 was still 29% below the total from the same period in 2021, highlighting the need for significant recovery [7]. Valuation Concerns - Upstart's shares are currently trading 81% below their peak from October 2021, requiring a 427% gain to return to that level [9]. - The price-to-sales ratio stands at 11.8, above historical averages, suggesting that the current valuation may not be attractive for new investors [10].

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) has received a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) upgrade, indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][4]. Earnings Estimates and Revisions - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Upstart indicates expected earnings of -$0.62 per share for the fiscal year ending December 2024, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 10.7% [9]. - Over the past three months, analysts have raised their earnings estimates for Upstart by 8.7% [9]. Zacks Rating System - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in a company's earnings picture, which is a critical factor for stock price movements [2][3]. - The system classifies stocks into five groups, with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [8]. - Upstart's upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting potential for market-beating returns in the near term [12][11]. Impact of Institutional Investors - Institutional investors utilize earnings estimates to determine the fair value of stocks, and changes in these estimates can lead to significant stock price movements [5]. - The rising earnings estimates for Upstart indicate an improvement in the company's underlying business, which is expected to positively influence its stock price [6]. Conclusion - The Zacks rating upgrade for Upstart reflects an optimistic earnings outlook, which could lead to favorable stock price movements in the near future [4][12].

Upstart reported a strong quarter, but there's more to the story.Upstart Holdings (UPST 1.45%) shareholders have been waiting for some good news for a while now, and it's finally come. The company reported strong progress in the third quarter, and Upstart stock soared 53% after the report.You can already see where this is going. A 53% increase is incredible for shareholders, but is it too good to be true? That kind of eye-popping jump has an undercurrent of caution. And if you have been following Upstart st ...

Upstart uses artificial intelligence to make lending decisions.The most significant risk for Upstart (UPST -7.83%) in 2024 was a severe recession that could increase default rates among borrowers.*Stock prices used were the afternoon prices of Nov. 8, 2024. The video was published on Nov. 10, 2024. ...

Upstart (NASDAQ: UPST ) submitted a stronger than expected Q3 earnings sheet, driven by strong demand for the platform’s loan products, both personal and auto loans. The fintech beat top and bottom line estimates by a wide margin and saw a favorableAnalyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of SOFI, PYPL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than ...

Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ: UPST ) has reported an improved operating momentum in Q3, and growth prospects are positive ahead, but its investment case is still risky and the sustainability of its business model is not certain over the long term.Labutes IR is a Fund Manager/Analyst specialized in the financial sector, with more than 18 years of experience in the financial markets. I have worked at several type of institutions in the industry, always at the buy side and related to portfolio management. Associat ...

Company Performance - Upstart's revenue increased by 20% in Q3 to $162 million, surpassing analyst expectations, with CEO David Girouard stating the company is in "growth mode" [2] - Toast's stock has more than doubled this year, with an adjusted earnings forecast of $90 million to $100 million for the current quarter, exceeding estimates [2] Market Trends - Both Upstart and Toast experienced significant stock rallies, with Upstart soaring 46% and Toast jumping 14% following better-than-expected results [1][2] - The overall market saw a rally after Donald Trump's election victory, with the Nasdaq index rising 5.7% for the week, marking its second-best week of the year [3] Cryptocurrency Sector - Coinbase shares surged 48% for the week, bolstered by significant political contributions and potential regulatory changes favorable to the crypto industry [4] - Robinhood's stock rose 27% for the week, despite receiving a Wells Notice from the SEC, indicating ongoing regulatory scrutiny [5] - Bitcoin reached a new intraday high above $77,300, ending the week 11% higher, with other cryptocurrencies like Ether and Solana also outperforming Bitcoin [5] Other Fintech Companies - Block, the parent company of Square, reported Q3 revenue that fell short of Wall Street expectations, resulting in a slight stock drop [6] - Affirm, despite beating revenue and earnings estimates, saw its stock decline by 4.7% on Friday, although it remained slightly ahead of the Nasdaq for the week [6]

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) reported $162.14 million in revenue for the quarter ended September 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 20.5%. EPS of -$0.06 for the same period compares to -$0.05 a year ago. The reported revenue represents a surprise of +8.14% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $149.94 million. With the consensus EPS estimate being -$0.14, the EPS surprise was +57.14%. While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how the ...