Upstart (UPST) Update / Briefing May 14, 2025 09:00 AM ET Speaker0 Please welcome VP of Investor Relations, Sonia Banerjee. Speaker1 Good morning. Good morning. Can you hear me? Just making sure. Welcome to Upstart AI Day. My name is Sonia. I'm the Head of Investor Relations for Upstart. And on behalf of the entire team, we are so glad that you were able to make it today. If you're here in the room with us or joining us on the webcast, we appreciate your engagement and your time. We have a fantastic morning ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that individuals with bad credit still have viable loan options available, particularly through specialized lenders like Upstart, which offers a more inclusive approach to loan approval [1][5][36]. Group 1: Upstart's Loan Offerings - Upstart is highlighted as the top choice for bad credit loans, utilizing AI to assess applicants beyond just credit scores, considering factors like education and income [6][8][23]. - Loan amounts range from $1,000 to $50,000, with APRs between 6.70% and 35.99%, depending on the borrower's creditworthiness [9]. - Upstart's repayment terms are fixed at either 36 or 60 months, providing a structured payment schedule for borrowers [10]. Group 2: Benefits of Upstart - Upstart accepts borrowers with credit scores as low as 300, and for college students or recent graduates, there is no credit score requirement [12]. - The platform offers fast funding, with funds available as soon as the next business day after approval [12][26]. - There are no prepayment penalties, allowing borrowers to pay off loans early without incurring additional costs [12]. Group 3: Understanding Bad Credit Loans - Bad credit loans are designed for individuals with poor credit histories, providing access to funds that traditional lenders may deny [17][36]. - These loans may come with higher interest rates due to the associated risks, but they also offer opportunities for borrowers to rebuild their credit [17][37]. - The article outlines various types of bad credit loans, including personal loans, secured loans, payday loans, and peer-to-peer loans [21]. Group 4: Application Process and Requirements - Upstart's application process is entirely digital, requiring minimal documentation, which can be completed online in just a few minutes [25][27]. - Approval is often instant, with funds typically disbursed the same day or within one business day, making it suitable for urgent financial needs [26][27]. - The article advises borrowers to focus on key features when applying for bad credit loans, such as fair interest rates, no prepayment penalties, and clear terms [38][44].

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings and Affirm Holdings are prominent players in the fintech industry, leveraging artificial intelligence to transform traditional lending practices [1][2] - Upstart focuses on AI-driven personal loans, while Affirm is recognized for its "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) model, with differing financials and future outlooks [2] Upstart Holdings - Upstart has created an AI-based underwriting platform that surpasses traditional FICO scoring by incorporating alternative variables such as education and employment history, allowing for 92% loan automation by Q1 2025 [3] - The company is experiencing growth not only in personal loans but also in auto loans, HELOCs, and small-dollar loans, with auto loan originations increasing by 42%, HELOCs by 52%, and small-dollar loans by 7% sequentially in Q1 2025 [4] - Financially, Upstart reported a 67% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1, with non-GAAP EPS turning from a loss of $0.31 to a profit of $0.30, and it anticipates 76% revenue growth in Q2 and 59% for the full year [5] - Upstart is strengthening its funding relationships, with institutional investors like Fortress Investment Group now funding over half of its originations, and it is shifting towards super-prime borrowers, who now account for 32% of personal loan originations [6] - Despite challenges such as high interest rates and a dip in contribution margin from 61% to 55%, Upstart's expanding product suite and improving credit performance position it as a resilient fintech player [7] Affirm Holdings - Affirm has established a strong BNPL brand, facilitating payment splitting at checkout through partnerships with major companies like Amazon and Shopify, and its AI platform allows for quick loan approvals [8] - The company has 21.9 million active users and 358,000 active merchants as of Q3 fiscal 2025, and is expanding into sectors like travel and home improvement while also moving towards broader banking services [9] - Affirm is pursuing international expansion, recently launching Shop Pay Installments in Canada and planning to enter the U.K., Australia, and Western Europe, although it faces competition from established players like Klarna and PayPal [10] - Financially, Affirm's Q3 fiscal 2025 revenues grew by 36% year-over-year, but this growth lags behind Upstart's performance, with a non-GAAP EPS of $0.01 compared to a loss of $0.43 in the previous year [11] - Management projects Q4 revenue growth between 23% and 28%, indicating a potential slowdown [12] EPS Estimate Trends - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Affirm's fiscal 2025 indicates year-over-year growth of 36.9% for revenue and 95.8% for EPS, but the estimate revision trend has been volatile [13] - In contrast, Upstart's estimates imply a 58.8% revenue increase and an 830% EPS increase for 2025, with a steady upward revision trend reflecting predictable performance [14][15] Price Performance & Valuation - Both companies have experienced share price fluctuations in 2025, with Affirm shares down 11.8% year-to-date and Upstart down 14% [17] - Currently, both companies have similar forward price-to-sales ratios, with Affirm at 4.46 and Upstart at 4.52 [18] Conclusion - While Affirm has built a strong consumer brand and is diversifying its financial services, it remains heavily reliant on the competitive BNPL market, with uncertain profitability and slower growth [21] - Upstart, on the other hand, is executing across multiple high-growth verticals, demonstrating operational leverage and a path towards consistent profitability, making it a more attractive investment opportunity [22][23]

Group 1: Palantir Technologies - Palantir develops data analytics software for commercial and government sectors, with core platforms Gotham and Foundry that integrate complex data and machine learning models [2] - The company reported a 39% increase in revenue to $884 million and a 62% increase in non-GAAP earnings to $0.13 per diluted share, with total customers climbing 39% to 769 [4] - Despite strong financial results, the stock fell sharply due to concerns over valuation, with a forward price-to-sales ratio significantly higher than competitors [5][6] - Analysts have set a target price of $40 per share, indicating a 64% downside from the current price of $110 [10] Group 2: Upstart Holdings - Upstart provides an AI lending platform that automates credit decisions, considering over 2,500 variables compared to the traditional FICO score [8][9] - The company reported a 67% increase in revenue to $2.1 billion, with positive non-GAAP earnings of $0.30 per diluted share, up from a loss in the same quarter last year [11] - Analysts have set a target price of $15 per share for Upstart, implying a 67% downside from its current price of $46 [10] - The outlook for Upstart is mixed, with potential growth due to expected Federal Reserve rate cuts, but also risks from economic uncertainty and tariffs [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - Upstart's Q1 earnings report demonstrated strong growth driven by its new AI model, Model 18, which significantly improved its conversion rates and overall business performance [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 67% to $213.4 million, surpassing estimates of $201.3 million, with fees revenue growing by 34% to $185.5 million [2]. - Loan originations rose by 102% to 240,706 loans, while total originations increased by 89% to over $2.1 billion [3]. - Adjusted EBITDA improved from a loss of $20.3 million to a profit of $42.6 million, with a GAAP loss of $2.4 million, an improvement from a loss of $64.6 million a year ago [4]. Earnings Per Share - Adjusted per-share profit was reported at $0.30, exceeding the consensus estimate of $0.17 and improving from an adjusted loss of $0.31 in the same quarter last year [5]. Guidance and Market Reaction - Despite strong Q1 results, Upstart maintained its full-year guidance, projecting Q2 revenue of $225 million, slightly below the consensus of $226.3 million, leading to a 16% drop in after-hours trading [7][8]. Business Diversification - Upstart has diversified its offerings, with auto loans growing fivefold to $61 million and home loan originations increasing sixfold to $41 million, indicating a shift towards secured loans [9]. Strategic Partnerships - A one-year strategic partnership with OnePay, majority-owned by Walmart, aims to market lending products to Walmart's customer base, presenting a significant growth opportunity [10]. - Fortress Investment Group has committed to purchasing up to $1.2 billion in loans originated on Upstart, enhancing the company's funding base [11]. Valuation and Growth Potential - Following the after-hours sell-off, Upstart's forward P/E ratio is at 31 based on adjusted earnings, with potential for further declines as analysts adjust forecasts [12]. - The company is positioned for growth in the auto and home loan markets, with proprietary data indicating a modest improvement in the macroenvironment [13]. Overall Business Outlook - Upstart's business is strengthening, technology is advancing, and the current valuation appears attractive, with an upcoming "AI day" planned to discuss technology updates and business strategy [14].

Artificial intelligence (AI) lending stock Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UPST) was last seen down 11.9% at $45.27, brushing off upbeat first-quarter results as well as a strong full-year forecast, after the company's second-quarter outlook spooked investors. No fewer than four analysts slashed their price targets after the event, including Morgan Stanley all the way to $50 from $70. Options traders are blasting Upstart stock in response. So far today, 62,000 calls and 47,000 puts have been exchanged , which ...

Upstart Holdings, Inc. UPST shares are trading lower on Wednesday.On Tuesday, Upstart reported first-quarter earnings of 30 cents per share, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of 17 cents.Quarterly revenue was $213.37 million. That’s up from $127.79 million in the same period last year. The company beat the consensus estimate of $199.49 millionHere are the key analysts’ takes on the stock:JPMorgan analyst Reginald L. Smith reiterated the Neutral rating on Upstart, lowering the price forecast from $79 ...

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings, Inc. reported a revenue of $213.37 million for the quarter ended March 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 67% and exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $200.74 million by 6.29% [1] - The company achieved an EPS of $0.30, a significant improvement from -$0.31 a year ago, with an EPS surprise of 57.89% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.19 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Upstart's transaction volume reached $2.13 million, surpassing the average estimate of $1.90 million by two analysts [4] - Revenue from fees, net, was reported at $185.48 million, slightly above the average estimate of $185.42 million based on five analysts, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 34.3% [4] - Total interest income, interest expense, and fair value adjustments, net, amounted to $27.90 million, significantly lower than the estimated $15.28 million, indicating a drastic year-over-year change of -371.5% [4] - Revenue from platform and referral fees, net, was $150.98 million, exceeding the estimate of $148.10 million and showing a year-over-year increase of 45.4% [4] - Revenue from servicing and other fees, net, was reported at $34.50 million, below the average estimate of $37.57 million, with a year-over-year change of 0.9% [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Upstart shares have returned 37.6%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's return of 11.5% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Upstart experienced significant growth in loan originations, with a year-over-year increase of 89% to $2.1 billion, primarily driven by personal loans which grew 83% [1][3] - The company is expanding into the super-prime borrower segment, which now represents 32% of total originations [1][3] - Despite positive growth metrics and management's commentary on improved borrower health, shares fell over 18% in after-hours trading due to a slight decrease in contribution margins [1][4] Loan Originations - Total platform originations reached $2.1 billion, with personal loans accounting for $2 billion, reflecting an 83% increase year-over-year [3] - Automated processes contributed to nearly 92% of loans being originated without human intervention [3] Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 67% due to higher conversion rates on lending, as stated by CEO Dave Girouard [4] - Average loan size increased to approximately $8,865 from $8,580 in the previous quarter, influenced by a higher proportion of loans to super-prime borrowers [8] Automation and Technology - The company introduced embedding algorithms to enhance its personal loan underwriting model, improving accuracy and credit decision-making [5] - Upstart automated 90% of hardship applications in Q1, streamlining processes for borrowers [7] Other Lending Segments - Car loan originations grew 42% sequentially, while home equity line of credit (HELOC) originations surged 52% quarter-over-quarter and more than 6 times year-over-year [6] - Short-term lending accounted for 16% of new borrowers in the quarter [6] Future Outlook - The company projects revenues of $225 million for the current quarter, representing a 75% increase compared to the same period last year [10] - CFO Sanjay Datta noted that while macroeconomic factors have not significantly impacted credit performance, there is increased uncertainty with potential upside and downside scenarios [9][10]

Upstart, which belongs to the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, posted revenues of $213.37 million for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.29%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $127.79 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters. Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.30 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.19 per share. This compares to loss of $ ...