Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) closed the most recent trading day at $82.70, moving -1.7% from the previous trading session. This change lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.07%. Meanwhile, the Dow lost 0.7%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 0.18%. Shares of the company have appreciated by 34.74% over the course of the past month, outperforming the Finance sector's gain of 4.82%, and the S&P 500's gain of 5.71%.The investment community will be paying close attention to the earnings performance of Up ...

Company Performance - Upstart Holdings, Inc. closed at $78.36, reflecting a +1.01% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500's 0.01% loss [1] - The company's shares have increased by 31.31% over the past month, while the Finance sector and S&P 500 gained 4.74% and 5.37%, respectively [1] Upcoming Earnings - Upstart Holdings, Inc. is set to announce its earnings on August 5, 2025, with projected earnings of $0.27 per share, indicating a year-over-year growth of 258.82% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue is $225.3 million, representing a 76.52% increase from the previous year [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are projected at $1.58 per share and revenue at $1.02 billion, showing increases of +890% and +59.46% from the prior year [3] Analyst Estimates - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for Upstart Holdings, Inc. reflect evolving short-term business trends, with positive revisions indicating a favorable outlook on business health and profitability [4] Zacks Rank and Valuation - Upstart Holdings, Inc. currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate remaining steady over the past month [6] - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 49.16, significantly higher than the industry average of 12.66, indicating a premium valuation [7] Industry Context - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, part of the Finance sector, ranks in the top 37% of all industries according to the Zacks Industry Rank [7] - The top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1, highlighting the competitive positioning of the industry [8]

Core Insights - The artificial intelligence boom presents a multitrillion-dollar investment opportunity, but the real estate sector also holds significant potential, particularly with $35 trillion in home equity available to U.S. homeowners [1][3][14] Real Estate Market Opportunity - U.S. homeowners currently possess an all-time high of $35 trillion in home equity, largely due to rising home values and low refinancing activity [3][13] - A potential decline in mortgage rates could trigger a surge in refinancing volume, possibly reaching trillions of dollars [3][13] Company Analysis: Rocket Companies - Rocket Companies is the leading mortgage originator in the U.S., and a rise in refinancing volume could significantly boost its business [5][6] - In the most recent quarter, Rocket closed on $26.1 billion in loan origination volume, a decrease from $103.5 billion in the same quarter of 2021 when rates were lower [6] - The company is expanding its all-in-one real estate platform and has recently acquired Redfin, with a pending acquisition of Mr. Cooper [7][8] - Rocket has a 97% client retention rate and aims to capture a larger market share in a highly fragmented mortgage market, which sees $5 trillion to $6 trillion in home sales annually [8] Company Analysis: Upstart - Upstart focuses on improving loan repayment predictions compared to traditional credit scoring models, utilizing extensive data points [9] - The company is expanding into auto loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs), with home loan volume increasing by 52% sequentially in the first quarter [10][11] - Upstart's current annual run rate for HELOC origination is about $160 million, representing a small fraction of the overall market opportunity [12] - Capturing even a small percentage of the HELOC market could yield significant benefits for Upstart if interest rates decline [12][14]

Core Insights - The fintech landscape is evolving, with PayPal and Upstart Holdings emerging as significant players in different sectors [1][2][3] PayPal Overview - PayPal is transitioning from a transactional payment provider to a comprehensive commerce platform, focusing on user experience and international expansion [4][6] - Despite a nearly 14% decline in stock year-to-date, core operating metrics show resilience, with transaction margin dollars up 7% year-over-year and Venmo revenues increasing by 20% [5][3] - The Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) segment is performing well, with volumes rising over 20% and monthly active accounts increasing by 18% year-over-year [5] - PayPal is expanding internationally, with initiatives in Germany and the U.K., and partnerships with Coinbase, Amazon, and Shopify enhancing growth prospects [6][4] - Short-term pressures on margins are anticipated due to investments in modernization and competition from major players like Visa and Mastercard [7] Upstart Overview - Upstart is leveraging AI to disrupt traditional credit underwriting, automating 92% of loans in Q1 2025 and increasing conversion rates from 14% to 19% year-over-year [8][10] - The company is diversifying its offerings beyond personal loans into auto refinancing and HELOCs, with auto originations up 42% and HELOCs up 52% sequentially [10] - Upstart's marketplace model has diversified funding sources, with over 50% of volume backed by committed capital, and credit quality is improving with 32% of originations from super-prime borrowers [10][8] - Challenges include lower take rates due to competition and initial modest margins in newer products, alongside macroeconomic uncertainties [11] Financial Estimates - PayPal's 2025 sales and EPS are expected to rise by 2.9% and 9.5% respectively, with EPS estimates trending upward [12] - Upstart's 2025 sales are projected to increase by 59.46%, with EPS estimates also showing positive trends [13] Valuation Comparison - PayPal shares are considered undervalued with a Value Score of B, trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 2.1X [15] - Upstart shares are viewed as overvalued with a Value Score of F, trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 6.03X [15] Performance Insights - Over the past month, Upstart has outperformed PayPal and the S&P 500 composite [16] Conclusion - Both companies have unique strengths, with Upstart's rapid growth driven by AI innovation, while PayPal offers stability and a mature global payment infrastructure [19][20] - PayPal's diversified growth drivers and strategic evolution position it as a more reliable choice for investors seeking resilient growth [20][21]

Group 1 - Upstart Holdings, Inc. operates at the intersection of fintech and AI, indicating strong growth potential in these sectors [1] - The company is positioning itself to leverage the combination of these technologies for future success [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of core values such as excellence, integrity, transparency, and respect for long-term success in the investment landscape [1]

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) has experienced a significant rebound driven by investor optimism regarding its AI-driven lending platform and strategic execution [1] - The company is disrupting traditional credit models by utilizing machine learning for enhanced consumer loan underwriting [1] Valuation Concerns - Upstart currently has a Value Score of F, indicating potential overvaluation, with a forward 12-month Price/Sales ratio of 5.23, which is above the industry average of 3.86 [2] - This valuation premium has led to increased caution among investors, raising questions about the justification for the stock's recent surge [2] Technological Advancements - Upstart is reshaping credit underwriting with its proprietary AI model that incorporates education, employment, and financial behavior, moving beyond traditional FICO scores [3] - In Q1 2025, 92% of loans on its platform were fully automated, resulting in improved efficiency and borrower satisfaction, with conversion rates increasing from 14% to 19% year over year [3][9] Diversification Efforts - The company is diversifying into new verticals such as auto loans, HELOCs, and small-dollar credit, with some segments showing robust growth [4] - Partnerships with credit unions, like All In Credit Union, demonstrate Upstart's appeal in traditional finance [4] - The focus on super-prime borrowers, now constituting 32% of originations, aids in securing low-cost funding and managing credit risk effectively [4] Challenges Faced - Elevated interest rates and a decline in contribution margins are significant challenges for the company [5] - The increasing super-prime borrower mix, while enhancing credit quality, leads to lower take rates due to heightened competition [5] - Margins in newer products like HELOC and auto lending are expected to mature over time, with initial take rates being modest due to early-stage scaling [5] - Macroeconomic uncertainty and trade tensions further complicate the company's outlook [5] Market Performance - Upstart's shares have risen by 37.8% quarter to date, outperforming both the broader industry and the S&P 500 Index [12] - The full-year 2025 consensus EPS estimate has been slightly revised downward, while the 2026 estimate has been adjusted upward [13]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is a leading supplier of data center chips for AI development, with a market capitalization of $3.6 trillion, indicating potential for stock growth while investors seek other AI opportunities [1] C3.ai Overview - C3.ai has developed over 130 ready-made AI applications to assist businesses in adopting AI technologies [2] - The company can deliver custom AI applications within three months across various industries, including financial services and manufacturing [5] - C3.ai has launched an agentic AI platform that enables businesses to create virtual assistants for data analysis and workflow automation, connecting to over 200 third-party databases [6] - The market for "digital labor" could reach $12 trillion, presenting a significant opportunity for C3.ai [7] - C3.ai's products are accessible through major cloud providers, allowing businesses to scale without heavy infrastructure costs [8] - The company reported a record revenue of $389.1 million for fiscal 2025, a 25% increase year-over-year, with growth accelerating for the second consecutive year [9] - C3.ai's stock is currently trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 7.8, which is a 19% discount to its three-year average, suggesting potential undervaluation [10] - The combination of C3.ai's growth momentum, market opportunity in agentic AI, and favorable valuation presents a compelling investment opportunity [12] Upstart Overview - Upstart's AI algorithm evaluates over 2,500 data points for creditworthiness, outperforming traditional methods that rely on limited metrics [13][14] - The company approves twice as many loans at lower average interest rates while maintaining a comparable risk profile, with 92% of approvals fully automated [14] - Upstart generates fees from loan originations, focusing on unsecured personal loans, with plans for expansion into other loan segments [15] - The global loan origination market is valued at $25 trillion annually, creating a $1 trillion fee revenue opportunity, positioning Upstart favorably for future growth [16] - Upstart reported $213 million in revenue for Q1 2025, a 67% increase year-over-year, driven by $2.1 billion in loan originations, an 89% year-over-year increase [17] - The stock is currently trading at a P/S ratio of 8, down from a peak of nearly 50, indicating a more sustainable valuation amid rapid revenue growth [18]

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) has achieved a 40.1% gain in the current quarter, outperforming the Zacks Financial – Miscellaneous Services industry's 18.7% increase, establishing itself as a standout performer compared to peers like LendingClub and Enova International [1][7]. Business Model and Growth - Upstart is transforming consumer lending through artificial intelligence, replacing traditional FICO scores with a more predictive model that considers factors such as education and employment history [2][4]. - In Q1 2025, 92% of loans on Upstart's platform were fully automated, showcasing high efficiency and borrower experience [4]. - The company has expanded its offerings beyond personal loans into auto refinancing, HELOCs, and small-dollar loans, with auto loan originations increasing by 42% sequentially and HELOCs rising by 52% [5]. Market Position and Strategy - Upstart's focus on super-prime borrowers, now constituting 32% of originations, helps reduce credit risk and enhances access to low-cost funding [6]. - The marketplace model diversifies funding sources, with over 50% of loan volume backed by committed capital [6]. Technological Innovation - Upstart's AI innovation, including the integration of advanced machine-learning methods, enhances credit evaluations by detecting nuanced behavioral patterns among borrowers [7][8]. - The company plans to launch its first machine-learning model for loan servicing to improve operational efficiency and reduce default rates [9]. Financial Performance and Valuation - Recent estimate revisions show mixed trends, with the full-year 2025 EPS consensus slightly down and 2026 estimates adjusted upward [11]. - Upstart shares are currently trading at a forward 12-month Price/Sales (P/S) ratio of 5.24X, above the industry average of 3.85X, indicating a premium valuation compared to major fintech rivals [13]. Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term macro risks, Upstart's unique technology, expanding loan mix, and improving profitability position it as a compelling long-term investment in the fintech sector [14].

Group 1 - Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UPST) is experiencing a breakout above its June closing highs, surpassing its 200-day moving average and year-to-date anchored volume-weighted average price (AVWAP) [1] - The stock has bounced near peak put open interest at the 50-strike and is now breaking above the $55 pivot point from a November earnings gap, which has previously acted as both support and resistance [1] - The 65-strike call option is set to expire next week, potentially leading to higher prices as shorts begin to cover, with over 25% of UPST's total available float sold short [2] Group 2 - The Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) for UPST is in the 10th percentile of its annual range, indicating that options traders can acquire premiums at a relative bargain [2] - A recommended call option has a leverage ratio of 3.7, suggesting it will double in value with a 29.1% move in the underlying equity [3]

Group 1 - Upstart Holdings, Inc. closed at $63.35, with a +1.46% increase, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 0.8% [1] - Over the past month, Upstart's shares have risen by 32.82%, significantly exceeding the Finance sector's gain of 2.69% and the S&P 500's gain of 5.12% [1] Group 2 - The upcoming earnings disclosure for Upstart is projected to show an EPS of $0.27, a 258.82% increase year-over-year, and revenue of $226.12 million, reflecting a 77.17% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2] - For the entire year, Zacks Consensus Estimates forecast earnings of $1.56 per share and revenue of $1.01 billion, indicating increases of +880% and +58.99% respectively compared to the previous year [3] Group 3 - Recent changes in analyst estimates for Upstart indicate positive sentiment regarding the company's business and profitability [4] - The Zacks Rank system, which includes estimate changes, has shown that 1 rated stocks have generated an average annual return of +25% since 1988, with Upstart currently holding a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5][6] Group 4 - Upstart is currently trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 40.03, which is a premium compared to the industry average Forward P/E of 11.65 [7] - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, part of the Finance sector, has a Zacks Industry Rank of 91, placing it in the top 37% of over 250 industries [7][8]