Investors came in to Upstart's (UPST 5.53%) first-quarter earnings report hoping the company would maintain its momentum from the end of last year.Its growth has accelerated thanks to a new artificial intelligence (AI) model, Model 18 or M18, that has significantly improved its conversion rate thanks to an even broader prediction set that includes approximately 1 million predictions per applicant, or six times its prior model.With those tailwinds behind it, Upstart's results in Q1 did not disappoint. Revenu ...

Artificial intelligence (AI) lending stock Upstart Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UPST) was last seen down 11.9% at $45.27, brushing off upbeat first-quarter results as well as a strong full-year forecast, after the company's second-quarter outlook spooked investors. No fewer than four analysts slashed their price targets after the event, including Morgan Stanley all the way to $50 from $70. Options traders are blasting Upstart stock in response. So far today, 62,000 calls and 47,000 puts have been exchanged , which ...

Upstart Holdings, Inc. UPST shares are trading lower on Wednesday.On Tuesday, Upstart reported first-quarter earnings of 30 cents per share, which beat the analyst consensus estimate of 17 cents.Quarterly revenue was $213.37 million. That’s up from $127.79 million in the same period last year. The company beat the consensus estimate of $199.49 millionHere are the key analysts’ takes on the stock:JPMorgan analyst Reginald L. Smith reiterated the Neutral rating on Upstart, lowering the price forecast from $79 ...

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings, Inc. reported a revenue of $213.37 million for the quarter ended March 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 67% and exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $200.74 million by 6.29% [1] - The company achieved an EPS of $0.30, a significant improvement from -$0.31 a year ago, with an EPS surprise of 57.89% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.19 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Upstart's transaction volume reached $2.13 million, surpassing the average estimate of $1.90 million by two analysts [4] - Revenue from fees, net, was reported at $185.48 million, slightly above the average estimate of $185.42 million based on five analysts, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 34.3% [4] - Total interest income, interest expense, and fair value adjustments, net, amounted to $27.90 million, significantly lower than the estimated $15.28 million, indicating a drastic year-over-year change of -371.5% [4] - Revenue from platform and referral fees, net, was $150.98 million, exceeding the estimate of $148.10 million and showing a year-over-year increase of 45.4% [4] - Revenue from servicing and other fees, net, was reported at $34.50 million, below the average estimate of $37.57 million, with a year-over-year change of 0.9% [4] Stock Performance - Over the past month, Upstart shares have returned 37.6%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's return of 11.5% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Insights - Upstart experienced significant growth in loan originations, with a year-over-year increase of 89% to $2.1 billion, primarily driven by personal loans which grew 83% [1][3] - The company is expanding into the super-prime borrower segment, which now represents 32% of total originations [1][3] - Despite positive growth metrics and management's commentary on improved borrower health, shares fell over 18% in after-hours trading due to a slight decrease in contribution margins [1][4] Loan Originations - Total platform originations reached $2.1 billion, with personal loans accounting for $2 billion, reflecting an 83% increase year-over-year [3] - Automated processes contributed to nearly 92% of loans being originated without human intervention [3] Financial Performance - Revenue increased by 67% due to higher conversion rates on lending, as stated by CEO Dave Girouard [4] - Average loan size increased to approximately $8,865 from $8,580 in the previous quarter, influenced by a higher proportion of loans to super-prime borrowers [8] Automation and Technology - The company introduced embedding algorithms to enhance its personal loan underwriting model, improving accuracy and credit decision-making [5] - Upstart automated 90% of hardship applications in Q1, streamlining processes for borrowers [7] Other Lending Segments - Car loan originations grew 42% sequentially, while home equity line of credit (HELOC) originations surged 52% quarter-over-quarter and more than 6 times year-over-year [6] - Short-term lending accounted for 16% of new borrowers in the quarter [6] Future Outlook - The company projects revenues of $225 million for the current quarter, representing a 75% increase compared to the same period last year [10] - CFO Sanjay Datta noted that while macroeconomic factors have not significantly impacted credit performance, there is increased uncertainty with potential upside and downside scenarios [9][10]

Upstart, which belongs to the Zacks Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, posted revenues of $213.37 million for the quarter ended March 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 6.29%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $127.79 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters. Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.30 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.19 per share. This compares to loss of $ ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, total revenue reached approximately $213 million, representing a 67% year-on-year growth [26] - Adjusted EBITDA was $43 million, indicating a significant scaling in operating leverage [29] - GAAP net loss was $2 million, which was better than expectations, reflecting strong performance on net interest income [28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Platform originations grew 89% year-on-year, with personal loan originations flat sequentially but up 83% year-on-year [5][9] - Home and Auto lending saw sequential growth rates of 5242% and 42% respectively, with auto lending growing almost 5x compared to a year ago [6][13] - HELOC originations grew 52% quarter-on-quarter and more than 6x year-on-year [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The volume of loan transactions across the platform was approximately 241,000, up 102% from the prior year [27] - Average loan size increased to approximately $8,865 from $8,580 in the prior quarter [27] - The Upstart Macro Index remains elevated but stable, indicating improving consumer financial health [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to return to GAAP net income profitability in the second half of the year, with a focus on expanding both core and newer products [21][33] - Upstart is prioritizing AI advancements, with a goal to enhance its leadership in AI lending and improve risk models [20][24] - The company is diversifying its funding sources, with over 50% of loan funding now in committed partnership agreements [30] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in adapting to changing macroeconomic conditions, noting that credit performance has remained stable despite recent market turbulence [7][31] - The company is cautious about potential risks from reinflation and is planning for a steady macro environment [31] - Guidance for Q2 includes total revenues of approximately $225 million, with expectations for continued strong demand for credit [32] Other Important Information - The company has signed a one-year agreement with Walmart's FinTech, One Pay, to make its products available to Walmart customers [36] - Upstart's HELOC product has expanded its footprint to 37 states plus Washington D.C., covering almost 75% of the U.S. population [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the Walmart partnership? - Management confirmed a one-year agreement with Walmart's FinTech, emphasizing the alignment of values in delivering consumer value [36][37] Question: Any trends in April and early May? - Management indicated that guidance captures the current trends, providing limited additional color [39] Question: Thoughts on conversion rates for the remainder of the year? - Management expects conversion rates to improve with better models and automation, aiming to reach around 20% [45] Question: Why is the 2025 outlook not higher despite new funding? - Management clarified that funding is not the gating item for growth; rather, it is the economic acquisition of the right borrowers [102] Question: How are funding partners reacting to market volatility? - Management reported no pullbacks from committed capital partners, indicating resilience in funding sources [70] Question: How is Upstart adapting to macroeconomic changes? - Management emphasized the adaptability of their models and a conservative approach to planning, with no assumptions of Fed rate cuts this year [74]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was approximately $213 million, representing a 67% year-on-year increase [26] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $43 million, marking a significant improvement in operating leverage [30] - GAAP net loss was $2 million, which was better than expectations, reflecting strong net interest income performance [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Platform originations grew 89% year-on-year, with personal loan originations up 83% year-on-year [5][8] - Home and Auto lending saw sequential growth rates of 5242% and 42% respectively [6][13] - HELOC originations grew 52% quarter-on-quarter and more than 6x year-on-year [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The volume of loan transactions across the platform was approximately 241,000, up 102% from the prior year [27] - Average loan size increased to approximately $8,865 from $8,580 in the prior quarter [28] - The Upstart Macro Index remains elevated but stable, indicating improving consumer financial health [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to return to GAAP net income profitability in the second half of 2025 [22] - Focus on enhancing AI capabilities and expanding product offerings to maintain competitive advantage [21] - Plans to diversify funding sources and strengthen partnerships, with over 50% of loan funding in committed partnerships [31] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in adapting to changing macroeconomic conditions, despite potential risks from government trade policies [7] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain stable, with no explicit expectation of rate cuts [32] - Management remains cautious about fixed costs and hiring, reflecting a conservative approach to business planning [75] Other Important Information - The company has signed a one-year agreement with Walmart's fintech subsidiary, One Pay, to offer products to Walmart customers [36] - The introduction of machine learning techniques, such as embeddings, is expected to enhance credit performance predictions [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the Walmart partnership? - The company signed a one-year agreement with Walmart's fintech, One Pay, to make products available to Walmart customers, which has already been launched [36][37] Question: Can you provide trends in April and early May? - Management indicated that guidance captures the current quarter's trends, providing limited additional color [39] Question: How should we think about conversion rates for the remainder of the year? - Conversion rates increased from 14% to 19%, with expectations to drive them higher through improved models and automation [44] Question: Why was the 2025 outlook not increased despite new funding? - The company was never short of funding; the gating item is the economic acquisition of the right borrowers [104] Question: How have funding partners reacted to market volatility? - Committed partnerships are performing as designed, with no pullbacks from private credit partners or banks [72] Question: How is the company adapting to macroeconomic changes? - The company relies on adaptive models and conservatism in planning, with no assumptions of Fed rate cuts this year [75]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was approximately $213 million, representing a 67% year-on-year increase [27] - Revenue from fees was $185 million, up 34% year-on-year, while net interest income was approximately $28 million, exceeding expectations by $13 million [28] - Adjusted EBITDA reached $43 million, indicating significant operating leverage [30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Platform originations grew 89% year-on-year, with personal loan originations flat sequentially but up 83% year-on-year [7][10] - Home and Auto lending saw sequential growth rates of 5242% and 42% respectively, with auto lending growing almost 5x compared to a year ago [8][14] - HELOC originations grew 52% quarter-on-quarter and more than 6x year-on-year [17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The volume of loan transactions across the platform was approximately 241,000, up 102% from the prior year [28] - Average loan size increased to approximately $8,865 from $8,580 in the prior quarter [28] - The Upstart Macro Index remains elevated but stable, indicating improving consumer financial health [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to 10x its leadership in AI, focusing on model improvements and automation to enhance conversion rates [21] - Plans to return to GAAP net income profitability in the second half of the year, with a focus on expanding both core and new products [23] - The strategy includes diversifying into super prime loans while maintaining competitive rates and processes [24][66] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in adapting to changing macroeconomic conditions, noting that credit performance has remained stable despite recent market turbulence [9][27] - The company is cautious about potential risks from reinflation and is planning for a steady macro environment without expecting rate cuts [32][33] - Management remains optimistic about the demand for personal loans, particularly as the tax season ends [56] Other Important Information - The company signed a one-year agreement with Walmart's FinTech subsidiary, One Pay, to offer its products to Walmart customers [37][38] - A universal shelf and a $500 million at-the-market program were established to enhance balance sheet flexibility [31] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about the Walmart partnership? - The company signed a one-year agreement with Walmart's One Pay to make its products available to Walmart customers, which has already been launched [37][38] Question: Can you provide trends in April and early May? - Management indicated that guidance captures the current quarter's trends, providing limited additional color [40] Question: How should we think about conversion rates for the remainder of the year? - Conversion rates grew from 14% to 19%, with expectations to drive them higher through better models and automation [45] Question: Why was the 2025 outlook not increased despite new funding? - The company was never short of funding; the gating item for growth is the economic acquisition of the right borrowers [102] Question: How have funding partners reacted to market volatility? - Committed partnerships have performed as designed, with no pullbacks from private credit partners or banks [71] Question: How is the company adapting to macroeconomic changes? - The company relies on adaptive models and has built conservatism into its planning, ensuring readiness for macro changes [74]

Q1 2025 Financial Performance - Originations reached $2.1 billion, an increase of 89% year-over-year[9, 13] - Total revenue was $213 million, up 67% year-over-year[9, 19] - The company achieved near breakeven GAAP net loss of ($2 million)[9] - Adjusted EBITDA was $43 million, representing a 20% margin[9, 25] - Contribution profit was $102 million, with a 55% contribution margin, reflecting expansion into super-prime and new products[22] Q1 2025 Loan Metrics - 241,000 loans were transacted with a 19.1% conversion rate[16] - Personal loan originations grew 83% year-over-year to $2.0 billion[39] - Auto originations grew 5X since Q1 2024 to $61 million, a 42% sequential increase[45] - Home originations grew 6X since Q1 2024 to $41 million, a 52% sequential increase[49] - 92% of loans were fully automated, with no human intervention by Upstart[33, 36] Q2 2025 and FY 2025 Outlook - Q2 2025 total revenue is projected at $225 million[26] - Q2 2025 revenue from fees, net is projected at $210 million[26] - Q2 2025 net interest income is projected at $15 million[26] - FY 2025 total revenue is projected at $1.01 billion[26] - FY 2025 revenue from fees, net is projected at $920 million[26] - FY 2025 net interest income is projected at $90 million[26] - The company anticipates positive GAAP net income in the second half of 2025 and for the full year[26] - FY 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Margin is expected to be 19% of total revenue[26]