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Vistra(VST) - 2024 Q3 - Earnings Call Transcript
2024-11-07 18:17
Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2024 was reported at $1.444 billion, despite milder weather conditions in Texas [9] - The guidance for 2024 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA has been raised to a range of $5.0 billion to $5.2 billion, with a midpoint above the previous upper end [10] - The ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth guidance for 2024 has also been raised to $2.65 billion to $2.85 billion [10][37] - For 2025, the ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA guidance is set at $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion, with a midpoint of $5.8 billion, higher than the previous range [12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The retail business is expected to contribute adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1.3 billion to $1.4 billion annually, up from previous expectations of $1 billion to $1.2 billion [39] - The inclusion of Energy Harbor contributed approximately $165 million to generation and $35 million to retail in Q3 2024 [36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted robust load growth in both PJM and ERCOT markets, exceeding historical rates and trending towards long-term forecasts [31] - The demand growth is driven by factors such as large chip manufacturing facilities, electrification in the Permian Basin, and data center expansions [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company maintains four key strategic priorities, focusing on an integrated business model and comprehensive hedging program to enhance financial performance visibility [19] - The acquisition of the Vistra Vision 15% minority interest is viewed as an attractive investment in carbon-free assets and retail franchise [26] - The company plans to allocate approximately $700 million in 2024 and 2025 for development projects, including solar projects for major clients [45] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt to changing market conditions and emphasized the importance of resource adequacy discussions with stakeholders [75][60] - The company is optimistic about the long-term demand growth and is actively pursuing opportunities to meet this demand [68][66] Other Important Information - The company has returned approximately $5.4 billion to investors through share repurchases and dividends since Q4 2021 [23] - The net debt at the end of Q3 was approximately 2.7 times ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA, expected to rise slightly above 3 times with the recent acquisition but anticipated to fall below 3 times by 2025 [25][43] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of Susquehanna ISA rejection on customer conversations - Management acknowledged disappointment with the ruling but emphasized ongoing discussions and multiple paths forward for co-located deals [53][54] Question: Thoughts on additionality in ERCOT - Management indicated that resource adequacy is a concern and that they are actively discussing how to add resources to meet load growth [57][60] Question: Interest in co-location at gas plants in ERCOT - Management confirmed ongoing discussions with developers about co-location deals and new generation builds [66] Question: Timing of Comanche Peak discussions - Management noted that discussions are ongoing and that the site remains attractive due to its speed-to-market advantage [70] Question: Availability of resources during peak times in ERCOT - Management confirmed that solutions are being explored to ensure generation availability during sensitive periods [72] Question: Thoughts on new build gas and coal fleet post-election - Management stated that policy predictions are challenging, but they remain flexible and open to opportunities across their diversified portfolio [74] Question: Meaningful EBITDA impact from data center deals by 2026-2027 - Management indicated that significant impacts are unlikely in the near term due to the lengthy development processes involved [97] Question: Pricing differential between nuclear and gas assets - Management refrained from sharing specific pricing differences but noted that customers consider various factors, including carbon-free attributes [99] Question: Transmission capacity around PJM assets - Management confirmed that studies have shown co-location is feasible without negative impacts on the grid, emphasizing the speed-to-market advantage [103]
Vistra Stock Pops as the 2024's Best-Performing S&P 500 Company Tops Expectations
Investopedia· 2024-11-07 17:16
Key TakeawaysVistra shares are higher after the its third-quarter results comfortably topped expectations. The electricity provider has been the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 this year. Vistra has seen enthusiasm about using nuclear capacity to power energy-intensive AI processes. Vistra Corp (VST) shares climbed after the company posted third-quarter earnings that smashed expectations after the market closed Wednesday.  The Texas-based electricity provider reported revenue of $6.29 billion, up 54% ...
Vistra(VST) - 2024 Q3 - Quarterly Results
2024-11-07 12:22
Exhibit 99.1 Vistra – Press Release Nov. 7, 2024, Page 1 NEWS RELEASE Vistra Reports Third Quarter 2024 Results, Raises and Narrows 2024 Guidance, and Initiates 2025 Guidance Earnings Release Highlights • GAAP third quarter 2024 Net Income of $1,837 million and Cash Flow from Operations of $1,702 million. • Net Income from Ongoing Operations 1 of $1,855 million and Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA1 of $1,444 million. • Raised and narrowed 2024 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA1 and Ongoing Operations Adj ...
Vistra Before Q3 Earnings: Should You Buy, Hold or Sell the Stock?
ZACKS· 2024-11-06 18:01
Earnings Performance - Vistra Corp (VST) is expected to report a 21.4% increase in third-quarter 2024 revenues to $4.96 billion, but a 0.8% year-over-year decline in earnings per share to $1.24 [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for VST's third-quarter earnings has been revised downward by 31.9% over the past 60 days [2] - VST has consistently missed earnings expectations in the last four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 83.33% [4][5] Financial Metrics and Valuation - VST's total debt to capital ratio stands at 68.5%, significantly higher than the industry average of 60.05% [9] - The company is trading at a forward 12-month P/E multiple of 21.11X, compared to the industry average of 15.95X [14] - VST shares have declined 7.1% in the last month, underperforming the industry's 0.1% decline [12] Operational Factors - VST's operating costs and SG&A expenses increased by 30% and 21.6%, respectively, in the first six months of 2024, potentially impacting third-quarter earnings [8] - The company is benefiting from increasing demand for clean electricity, particularly from U.S. data centers and Permian electrification [10] - VST's share repurchase program, aiming to buy back $2.25 billion worth of shares between 2024 and 2025, is expected to positively impact earnings per share [11] Strategic Initiatives - VST is expanding its generation capabilities through organic growth and acquisitions, including the Energy Harbor Corporation deal, which is expected to generate $150 million in annual synergies by 2026 [16] - The company is increasing its clean energy generation capacity to meet rising demand in its service area [18]
This Little-Known Company Has Outpaced All Of The "Magnificent Seven" Stocks This Year. Here's Why I Think It's Parabolic Run Could Just Be Getting Started.
The Motley Fool· 2024-11-01 08:32
A nuclear power company has outperformed every stock in the S&P 500 so far this year. For the last two years, artificial intelligence (AI) has proven to be a generational influence for the stock market. It seems that every other week the S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite are setting record highs -- and excitement around AI has a lot to do with that. Naturally, large technology companies have been at the center of the AI storyline. Known as the "Magnificent Seven," Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, Meta Platforms, ...
Analysts Estimate Vistra Corp. (VST) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for
ZACKS· 2024-10-31 15:06
The market expects Vistra Corp. (VST) to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2024. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be releas ...
Vistra Declares Dividend on Common Stock, Series B Preferred Stock, and Series C Preferred Stock
Prnewswire· 2024-10-30 20:51
IRVING, Texas, Oct. 30, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Vistra (NYSE: VST) announced today that its board of directors has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.2215 per share of Vistra's common stock, reflecting an estimated aggregate payment of $75 million this quarter. The common dividend is payable on Dec. 31, 2024, to common stockholders of record as of Dec. 20, 2024. The ex-dividend date for the common dividend will be Dec. 20, 2024. Additionally, the board of directors also declared a semi-annual dividend on the ...
Vistra Corp. (VST) Stock Falls Amid Market Uptick: What Investors Need to Know
ZACKS· 2024-10-29 22:50
Vistra Corp. (VST) ended the recent trading session at $126.66, demonstrating a -0.88% swing from the preceding day's closing price. The stock's change was less than the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.16%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw a downswing of 0.37%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq appreciated by 0.78%. Shares of the company have appreciated by 7.79% over the course of the past month, outperforming the Utilities sector's loss of 2.61% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.67%. Market participants will be closely following the ...
Meet the Little-Known Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Leading the S&P 500 in 2024 (Hint: Not Nvidia)
The Motley Fool· 2024-10-24 08:31
Nvidia is the second best-performing stock in the S&P 500 year to date behind Vistra.Artificial intelligence (AI) could be one of the largest investment opportunities in history. Consequently, many investors have become familiar with Nvidia (NVDA -2.81%), the semiconductor company whose chips power the most advanced AI systems.Nvidia is the second best-performing member of the S&P 500 (^GSPC -0.92%) year to date, with its share price increasing 200% amid unprecedented demand for its hardware. But AI stocks ...
Vistra Corp. (VST) Advances While Market Declines: Some Information for Investors
ZACKS· 2024-10-23 22:50
In the latest trading session, Vistra Corp. (VST) closed at $126.11, marking a +0.86% move from the previous day. This move outpaced the S&P 500's daily loss of 0.92%. Elsewhere, the Dow saw a downswing of 0.96%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq depreciated by 1.6%.The company's shares have seen an increase of 11.25% over the last month, surpassing the Utilities sector's loss of 1.17% and the S&P 500's gain of 2.68%.Analysts and investors alike will be keeping a close eye on the performance of Vistra Corp. in it ...