Full Year and Fourth Quarter 2024 Results February 27, 2025 1 Safe Harbor Statements Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements The information presented herein includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements, which are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about the industry and markets in which Vistra Corp. ("Vistra") operates and beliefs of and assumptions made by Vistra's managem ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Vistra Corp. reported a full-year adjusted EBITDA of $5.656 billion, exceeding the top end of the original guidance range, even before considering a $545 million benefit from the nuclear production tax credit recognized in Q4 [11][39] - The adjusted free cash flow before growth for 2024 was approximately $2.888 billion, implying a conversion ratio of about 57% from adjusted EBITDA [40] - The company reaffirmed its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth range of $3 billion to $3.6 billion [41] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The retail business achieved performance levels not seen in the past two decades, driven by strong customer account growth and disciplined margin management [10][19] - The nuclear fleet delivered a capacity factor of 92%, while the gas and coal fleet achieved commercial availability of approximately 95% [18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Actual load growth in PJM and ERCOT exceeded historical rates, with new records for winter peak load of 145 gigawatts in PJM and approximately 80 gigawatts in ERCOT [27][28] - Load forecasts from PJM and ERCOT have been consistently revised upwards, indicating accelerating growth trends [28] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Vistra Corp. is focused on a diversified portfolio of generation assets, including nuclear and gas, combined with a strong retail business to operate effectively in volatile power markets [12] - The company is developing contracted solar and battery projects in competitive markets and plans to convert its Toledo Creek coal plant to a gas fuel plant by 2027 [15][22] - The strategic priorities include maintaining a comprehensive hedging program and increasing visibility into long-term financial outlook [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate regulatory and market challenges, emphasizing the importance of clarity in policy frameworks for future growth [35][36] - The management highlighted the need for effective communication with policymakers to address grid reliability and load growth concerns [35][36] Other Important Information - The company returned approximately $5.9 billion to investors through share repurchases and dividends since the capital return plan was initiated [20] - Vistra Corp. expects to spend over $700 million on solar and energy storage projects in 2025, including projects supported by contracts with Amazon and Microsoft [45] Q&A Session Summary Question: Timeline for potential deals - Management indicated that the timing of announcements for data center deals depends on regulatory clarity and ongoing discussions with major hyperscalers and data center developers [53][60] Question: Focus on Comanche Peak opportunity - Management acknowledged that Comanche Peak is currently considered the most attractive opportunity due to land availability and construction timelines [63] Question: Pricing levels for potential deals - Management refrained from discussing specific pricing levels but noted that the value proposition and complexity of deals would influence margins [89] Question: Interest in gas plant colocation - Management confirmed ongoing discussions about gas plant colocation with data center developers, emphasizing the need for regulatory clarity [98][100] Question: Likelihood of cap and floor proposal passing - Management expressed confidence that the cap and floor proposal is likely to be approved, which would help stabilize market volatility [115] Question: Concerns regarding SB6 legislation - Management highlighted that while SB6 has provisions beneficial for the market, clarity on transmission charges and remote disconnect switches remains a concern for potential customers [122][124]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Vistra Corp. reported a full-year adjusted EBITDA of $5.656 billion, exceeding the top end of the original guidance range, even before considering a $545 million benefit from the nuclear production tax credit recognized in Q4 [10][38] - The adjusted free cash flow before growth for 2024 was approximately $2.888 billion, implying a conversion ratio of about 57% from adjusted EBITDA [39] - The company reaffirmed its 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion and adjusted free cash flow before growth range of $3 billion to $3.6 billion [40] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The retail business achieved performance levels not seen in the past two decades, driven by strong customer account growth and disciplined margin management [9][18] - The generation team maintained a commercial availability of approximately 95% for gas and coal fleets, while the nuclear fleet achieved a capacity factor of 92% [16][17] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Actual load growth in PJM and ERCOT markets exceeded historical rates, with PJM reaching a winter peak load of 145 gigawatts and ERCOT approximately 80 gigawatts [26][27] - Load growth is expected to continue, with PJM and ERCOT revising long-term forecasts upwards, indicating a strong demand signal [27][29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on a diversified portfolio of generation assets, including nuclear and gas, combined with a strong retail business to navigate volatile power markets [11][20] - Vistra Corp. is developing contracted solar and battery projects and plans to convert its Toledo Creek coal plant to gas fuel by 2027 [15][21] - The company aims to return at least $1.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2025 and 2026 [45] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to capitalize on load growth and the evolving energy dynamics in primary markets [46] - The company is actively engaging with policymakers to address regulatory uncertainties and enhance grid reliability [34][36] Other Important Information - The company completed a unique acquisition, adding three nuclear sites and one million retail customers, and renewed a twenty-year license for the Comanche Peak nuclear power plant [9][10] - The Moss Landing site in California experienced a fire at one of its battery storage facilities, but no injuries were reported, and operations at other facilities resumed [23][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Timeline for potential deals - Management indicated that the timing of announcements for data center deals depends on regulatory clarity and ongoing discussions with major hyperscalers [52][58] Question: Focus on Comanche Peak opportunity - Comanche Peak is currently viewed as the most attractive opportunity due to its land availability and construction timelines [62] Question: Commercial outlook and pricing levels - Management noted that while power prices have increased, they do not fully reflect the expected load growth, leading to cautious contracting strategies [65][66] Question: Additionality and load management - The company is exploring how to manage load growth from data centers while ensuring reliability for residential customers [74][75] Question: Update on gas plant colocation - Interest in gas sites is growing, with ongoing discussions about both existing and new gas plants for data centers [96][99] Question: Regulatory clarity and deal announcements - Management clarified that they are not waiting for full regulatory clarity before announcing deals, but ongoing legal proceedings raise questions about risk-sharing in contracts [138]

Core Insights - Vistra Corp. reported a net income of $490 million for the fourth quarter, a significant improvement from a net loss of $184 million in the same quarter last year, exceeding analyst expectations [1][5] - The company generated $17.22 billion in revenue for 2024, which is $4.04 billion higher than the previously reported $13.19 billion for the first three quarters, although it fell short of analyst expectations of $17.79 billion for the full year [2] - CEO Jim Burke highlighted a unique acquisition that added three nuclear sites, approximately one million additional retail customers, and 2,000 new team members, positioning the company as the second-largest competitive nuclear fleet in the U.S. [3] Market Performance - Vistra was recognized as one of the biggest stock market winners in 2024, driven by optimism regarding the rising power demand for data centers supporting artificial intelligence products [4] - Following the earnings report, Vistra shares experienced volatility, recently declining over 4%, but have tripled in value over the past 12 months [4][5]

Financial Performance - Vistra reported a full-year 2024 Net Income of $2,812 million, an increase of $1,320 million from 2023, driven by unrealized mark-to-market gains and the addition of Energy Harbor[4]. - Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA for 2024 was $5,656 million, up $1,516 million compared to 2023, primarily due to the acquisition of Energy Harbor and increased revenues from nuclear production tax credits[5]. - Operating revenues for 2024 increased to $17,224 million, a 16.5% rise from $14,779 million in 2023[20]. - Net income attributable to Vistra for 2024 was $2,659 million, compared to $1,493 million in 2023, reflecting a 77.5% increase[20]. - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $5,656 million for the year ended December 31, 2024, compared to $5,539 million in 2023, a 2.1% increase[28]. - Adjusted EBITDA for 2023 reached $4,101 million, compared to $933 million in 2022, reflecting a substantial growth[35]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash provided by operating activities for 2024 was $4,563 million, down from $5,453 million in 2023, indicating a 16.3% decrease[22]. - The company had total available liquidity of approximately $4,121 million as of December 31, 2024, including cash and cash equivalents of $1,188 million[8]. - The ending balance of cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash decreased to $1,222 million in 2024 from $3,539 million in 2023, a decline of 65.5%[24]. - The company anticipates adjusted free cash flow before growth for 2025 to be between $3,000 million and $3,600 million, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities[41]. Capital Expenditures and Investments - Capital expenditures, including nuclear fuel purchases, totaled $2,078 million in 2024, up from $1,676 million in 2023, marking a 24% increase[24]. - The acquisition of Energy Harbor contributed $3,065 million to cash flows used in investing activities in 2024[22]. - Vistra closed the acquisition of the remaining 15% minority interest in Vistra Vision, increasing its nuclear ownership by approximately 970 MW and solar and energy storage ownership by about 200 MW[9]. Shareholder Returns - The company executed approximately $4.9 billion in share repurchases since November 2021, reducing shares outstanding by about 30%[9]. - Preferred stock dividends paid increased to $192 million in 2024 from $150 million in 2023, a 28% increase[20]. Guidance and Future Outlook - The company reaffirmed its 2025 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA guidance range of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion and Adjusted Free Cash Flow before Growth guidance of $3.0 billion to $3.6 billion[4][7]. - The company anticipates a midpoint opportunity for 2026 Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA to exceed $6,000 million[7][14]. - Vistra's comprehensive hedging program supports its reaffirmed 2025 guidance, with approximately 100% of expected generation volumes hedged for 2025[7]. Challenges and Other Factors - Interest expense and related charges rose to $900 million in 2024, up from $740 million in 2023, representing a 21.6% increase[20]. - The company experienced unrealized net losses from mark-to-market valuations of commodities amounting to $1,155 million in 2024[22]. - The impact of Winter Storm Uri resulted in an adjusted EBITDA loss of $48 million, highlighting the challenges faced during extreme weather events[36]. - Interest expense and related charges for 2023 totaled $740 million, which includes $36 million of unrealized mark-to-market net losses on interest rate swaps[35]. - The company reported a change in working capital of $1,048 million, indicating effective management of operational liquidity[38].

Core Viewpoint - Vistra Corp. is expected to report improved top and bottom-line figures for the fourth quarter of 2024, with significant increases in revenue and earnings per share compared to the previous year [1][4]. Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is $4.38 billion, reflecting a 42.34% increase from the year-ago figure of $3.08 billion [2][3]. - For the next quarter, the revenue estimate is $4.88 billion, with a year-over-year growth estimate of 59.78% [3]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is $1.59, indicating a substantial increase of 431.25% from the previous year's earnings [4]. - The earnings estimates for the current year and next year are $19.23 billion and $21.31 billion, respectively, showing a year-over-year growth of 30.12% and 10.81% [3]. Adjusted EBITDA - The consensus estimate for Adjusted EBITDA - Retail is $434.54 million, suggesting a year-over-year decline of 6.2% [8]. - Adjusted EBITDA - Texas is estimated at $302.06 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 31.3% [8]. - Adjusted EBITDA - East is pegged at $638.38 million, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 251.6% [8]. Market Performance - Vistra's shares have outperformed the industry, gaining 192.8% over the past year compared to the industry's growth of 24% [11]. - The company is currently trading at a premium with a forward 12-month P/E ratio of 21.75X, compared to the industry average of 14.58X [14]. Strategic Initiatives - Vistra is enhancing its generation capabilities through both organic and inorganic initiatives, which is expected to create synergies and improve performance [17]. - The company’s integrated business model provides a competitive advantage by stabilizing earnings and cash flow against commodity price fluctuations [7][19]. Clean Energy Focus - The demand for clean electricity is rising in Vistra's operational regions, and the company is increasing its clean energy generation capacity through acquisitions and organic growth [19].

Core Viewpoint - Vistra Corp. is anticipated to show significant improvements in both revenue and earnings per share for the fourth quarter of 2024, with a report scheduled for February 27, 2024 [1][2]. Financial Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vistra's fourth-quarter revenues is $4.38 billion, reflecting a 42.34% increase from the previous year [2]. - The estimated earnings per share for the fourth quarter is $1.59, indicating a substantial increase of 431.25% year-over-year [2][3]. - For the current quarter, the high estimate for earnings per share is $2.40, while the low estimate is $1.17 [3]. Earnings Performance - Vistra has surpassed earnings expectations in one of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 7.05% [4][5]. - The company has experienced significant fluctuations in earnings surprises, with the most notable being a 323.39% surprise in the quarter ending September 2024 [5]. Market Position and Valuation - Vistra currently holds a Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), indicating a favorable outlook [8]. - The company's shares have appreciated by 70% over the past six months, outperforming the industry average of 2.1% [15]. Growth Drivers - The increasing demand for clean electricity, particularly from large U.S. data centers and the electrification of the Permian region, is expected to drive load growth for Vistra [11]. - The company has been expanding its residential customer base, which is anticipated to contribute to fresh demand for its services [12]. Shareholder Value - Vistra has executed $4.6 billion in share repurchases since November 2021, which has positively impacted earnings per share by reducing the number of outstanding shares [13]. - The company plans to continue its share buyback program, aiming to repurchase at least $3.25 billion worth of shares between 2024 and 2026 [13]. Operational Strategy - Vistra employs a hedging program to mitigate the impact of market fluctuations, with 100% of its 2024 generation volume hedged [14]. - Despite rising operating costs, including a 36.4% increase in operating expenses, the hedging strategy is expected to secure generation volumes for the fourth quarter [14]. Competitive Advantage - Vistra's integrated business model provides a competitive edge over non-integrated competitors, with ongoing initiatives to enhance generation capabilities [20]. - The integration of Energy Harbor into Vistra's operations is expected to create synergies and improve overall performance [20]. Industry Context - Vistra operates in a region with increasing demand for clean electricity, positioning the company to benefit from this trend through both acquisitions and organic growth [22].

Core Insights - Wall Street analysts anticipate Vistra Corp. (VST) will report quarterly earnings of $1.59 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 431.3% [1] - Expected revenues for the quarter are $4.38 billion, which is a 42.3% increase from the same quarter last year [1] - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 7.1% in the past 30 days, indicating a reassessment by covering analysts [1][2] Financial Metrics - The consensus estimate for 'Adjusted EBITDA- Retail' is $434.54 million, down from $463 million reported in the same quarter last year [4] - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Texas' is projected to be $302.06 million, compared to $230 million reported in the same quarter last year [4] - 'Adjusted EBITDA- West' is expected to reach $58.82 million, down from $67 million a year ago [5] - 'Adjusted EBITDA- Sunset' is likely to be $51.11 million, compared to $53 million reported in the same quarter last year [5] - 'Adjusted EBITDA- East' is projected at $636.38 million, significantly up from $181 million in the previous year [6] Market Performance - Vistra shares have experienced a return of -21.3% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -0.5% change [6] - With a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), VST is expected to outperform the overall market in the near future [6]

Group 1: Brokerage Recommendations - Vistra Corp. (VST) has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.17, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy based on 12 brokerage firms' recommendations [2] - Out of the 12 recommendations, 11 are Strong Buy, representing 91.7% of all recommendations [2] - Despite the positive ABR, relying solely on brokerage recommendations may not be advisable as studies show they often fail to guide investors effectively [4][9] Group 2: Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Brokerage analysts tend to exhibit a strong positive bias in their ratings due to vested interests, leading to a disproportionate number of Strong Buy recommendations compared to Strong Sell [5][9] - The ABR is calculated solely from brokerage recommendations and may not reflect the actual price movement of stocks [8] - The ABR may not be up-to-date, while the Zacks Rank, which is based on earnings estimate revisions, provides a more timely indicator of future price movements [11] Group 3: Zacks Rank and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Vistra has increased by 4.3% over the past month to $7, indicating growing optimism among analysts regarding the company's earnings prospects [12] - The recent change in the consensus estimate, along with other factors, has resulted in a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy) for Vistra, suggesting a positive outlook for the stock [13] - The Zacks Rank is a reliable indicator of near-term price performance, driven by earnings estimate revisions, and should be used in conjunction with the ABR for investment decisions [7][10]

On his first day back in office, President Trump declared a national energy emergency, urging all federal agencies to expedite energy infrastructure projects to deal with this ‘crisis’. This Energy Emergency Declaration, allows for the approval and fast tracking ofI am an Asia based long-term dividend investor. I am CPA and Chartered Management Accountant (ACMA, CGMA). My goal for investing is to create a steady and growing stream of dividends to achieve financial freedom and augment my eventual retirement. ...