Core Viewpoint - Wells Fargo's latest report highlights a concerning recession signal hidden behind seemingly optimistic U.S. economic data, specifically a decline in discretionary service spending, which has only decreased during or immediately following economic recessions over the past 60 years [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - Discretionary service spending has been revised down significantly from an initial growth estimate of 2.4% to just 0.6% [1] - As of May, service spending has decreased by 0.3% year-over-year, with specific declines in transportation spending by 1.1% and a dramatic drop in air travel spending by 4.7% [1] - Households are delaying car repairs, reducing ride-sharing usage, and cutting back on air travel expenses, indicating financial strain [2] Group 2: Economic Growth and Inflation Insights - Despite stable growth in non-discretionary goods, the report suggests that this growth may be misleading due to preemptive purchases made before tariff increases [2] - Many companies have stockpiled inventory before tariffs took effect, allowing them to temporarily absorb cost pressures without passing them on to consumers [2] - The Federal Reserve is currently divided on economic outlook, with some members advocating for interest rate cuts due to weak employment data, while others believe the economy remains resilient [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariff policies on consumer spending and inflation in the U.S., highlighting that while consumer confidence has shown signs of recovery, the long-term effects of tariffs are likely to lead to increased inflation pressure as pre-tariff inventories are depleted [1][8]. Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Spending - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index rose to 61.8 in July, marking a 5-month high, but remains 16% lower than before the Trump administration [1]. - Retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, exceeding market expectations, while consumer spending on debit and credit cards grew by 7% and 4% respectively in Q2 compared to the previous year [4][5]. - Despite these positive indicators, Wells Fargo warns that consumer spending is not as robust as previously thought, with households reducing discretionary service spending [4][5]. Group 2: Discretionary Spending Trends - Discretionary service spending has shown a concerning decline, with a 0.3% drop noted in May, and a contribution of only 0.3 percentage points to GDP in the first quarter, the lowest since Q2 2020 [5][7]. - Consumers are increasingly opting for essential goods over discretionary items, as evidenced by shopping behavior during Amazon's Prime Day, where essential items were prioritized [6][7]. Group 3: Tariff Policy Effects - The effective tariff rate currently stands at 20.6%, the highest since 1910, yet inflation data does not reflect significant price increases due to tariffs [8][9]. - Key factors mitigating the impact of tariffs include declining energy prices and the Federal Reserve's tightening monetary policy, which has kept inflation in a downward trend [8][10]. - Import behavior has shifted, with a significant increase in imports prior to tariff implementation, leading to a stockpiling effect that has buffered immediate price impacts [8][9]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The overall economic growth in the U.S. is expected to slow, with various economic indicators showing mixed performance and a general contraction trend [2][10]. - Low-income households are particularly vulnerable, as they are quickly exhausting pandemic savings and facing rising debt levels, which could lead to a significant impact on overall consumer spending [7][10].

China says the case of a Wells Fargo banker blocked from leaving the country was related to a criminal matter, escalating an episode that already underscored multinationals’ fears about the risks of operating in the nation. https://t.co/UPfKVUaw1t ...

7月21日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 中美元首是否会举行会晤？外交部回应 有记者就中美元首是否会举行会晤相关问题进行提问。 对此，郭嘉昆表示，元首外交对中美关系发挥着不可替代的战略引领作用，关于提到的具体问题，目前没 有可以提供的信息。 郭嘉昆表示，无论是中国人还是外国人，在中国都要遵守中国的法律。中方在调查中会依法保障其合法权 益。郭嘉昆强调，这是一起司法个案，中方将一如既往欢迎各国人士来华旅游、经商，并依法保障其各项 权益。 美银行高管被禁止离开中国 外交部：涉刑事案件 配合调查 有记者问，据媒体报道，美国富国银行高管茅晨月在最近几周被禁止离开中国，请问中方对此有何评论？ 对此，郭嘉昆表示，经了解，茅晨月女士涉及中方在办的一起刑事案件，被中方执法部门依法采取限制出 境措施。根据中国法律，案件正在调查中，茅晨月女士暂时不能离境，并且有义务配合调查工作。 中国企业获得澳大利亚达尔文港租约 外交部回应 有记者就澳大利亚达尔文港相关合作问题进行提问。 对此，郭嘉昆强调，有关中国企业通过市场方式获得了达尔文港的租约，其合法权益应该受到充分保护。 综合自：央视新闻 责编：万健祎 校对： 姚远 版权声明 证券 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has taken legal action against a senior executive from Wells Fargo, indicating a strict enforcement of local laws for both domestic and foreign individuals [1] Group 1 - The executive, Ms. Mao Chen Yue, has been prohibited from leaving China due to her involvement in a criminal case being investigated by Chinese law enforcement [1] - The Chinese government emphasizes that all individuals in China, regardless of nationality, must adhere to Chinese laws [1] - The investigation is ongoing, and Ms. Mao is required to cooperate with the authorities [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government assures that it will protect the legal rights of individuals involved in the investigation [1] - The case is described as a judicial individual case, and the government continues to welcome foreign individuals for tourism and business in China [1]

郭嘉昆介绍，经了解，茅晨月女士涉及中方在办的一起刑事案件，被中方执法部门依法采取限制出 境措施。根据中国法律，案件正在调查中，茅晨月女士暂时不能离境，并且有义务配合调查工作。 "无论是中国人还是外国人，在中国都要遵守中国的法律。中方在调查中，会依法保障其合法权 益。"郭嘉昆强调，这是一起司法个案，中方将一如既往欢迎各国人士来华旅游经商，并依法保障 其各项权益。 来源：政知见 7 月 21 日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 有记者提问，据媒体报道，美国富国银行高管茅晨月在最近几周被禁止离开中国。中方对此有何评 论？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has taken legal action against American banker Ma Chen Yue, restricting her exit from China due to her involvement in a criminal case under investigation [1] Group 1 - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that Ma Chen Yue is subject to exit restrictions as part of an ongoing criminal investigation [1] - The Chinese authorities emphasize that all individuals, regardless of nationality, must adhere to Chinese laws while in the country [1] - The Chinese government assures that it will protect the legal rights of individuals involved in the investigation [1]

7月21日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。记者提问，媒体报道，美国富国银行高管茅晨月在最 近几周被禁止离开中国。请问中方对此有何评论?郭嘉昆表示，经了解，茅晨月女士涉及中方在办的一 起刑事案件，被中方执法部门依法采取限制出境措施。根据中国法律，案件正在调查中，茅晨月女士暂 时不能离境，并且有义务配合调查工作。"无论是中国人还是外国人，在中国都要遵守中国的法律。中 方在调查中，会依法保障其合法权益。"郭嘉昆强调，这是一起司法个案，中方将一如既往欢迎各国人 士来华旅游经商，并依法保障其各项权益。(智通财经) ...

Core Insights - Despite elevated interest rates and ongoing trade tensions, the largest U.S. banks continue to report strong financial results [1] - In Q2, the five largest U.S. banks saw a 17% increase in trading revenues and a 7% rise in investment banking revenues compared to the same quarter last year [2] Trading Performance - Volatility in the markets has become a business driver for banks' equities trading desks, with profits dependent on trade volume rather than market direction [3] - Banks have benefited from increased trading activity due to dramatic stock price swings, facilitating trades and collecting fees [4] Diversification and Resilience - The performance of financial services firms highlights the importance of diversification, allowing banks to thrive regardless of high interest rates or economic challenges [5] - Corporate clients remain active in pursuing mergers, issuing debt, and going public despite trade uncertainties, indicating a robust deal-making environment [6] Earnings Highlights - Morgan Stanley reported Q2 2025 earnings per share of $2.13, exceeding estimates and up from $1.82 a year ago, with net revenues of $16.79 billion, a 12% increase [7][8] - Goldman Sachs achieved Q2 EPS of $10.91, surpassing estimates and rising from $8.62 a year ago, with Global Banking and Markets revenues up 24% to $10.1 billion [9] - JPMorgan's quarterly earnings were $4.96 per share, beating estimates and up from $4.4 a year ago, with revenues of $44.91 billion exceeding expectations [10] - Wells Fargo reported adjusted EPS of $1.54, surpassing estimates and up from $1.33 in the prior year, while Citigroup's adjusted net income per share was $1.96, a 28.9% increase year-over-year [11] Investment Opportunities - Financials-based exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are expected to gain traction in light of the strong performance of banks, including iShares U.S. Financial Services ETF and Financial Select Sector SPDR [12]

Core Insights - Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Nicole Cervi report that U.S. import prices are rising, indicating that foreign exporters are not absorbing the higher tariff costs imposed by Trump [1] - The data shows that non-fuel import prices increased by 1.2% year-over-year in June, suggesting that domestic companies are forced to bear the higher tariff costs and are beginning to pass these costs onto consumers [1] Import Price Analysis - The import price data does not include tariffs, which implies that if exporters were absorbing the higher tariff costs, import prices should have decreased [1] - The lack of decline in import prices signals that domestic businesses are facing increased costs due to tariffs and are starting to transfer these costs to consumers [1]