Core Viewpoint - The agreement between Italy's Eni Group and Argentina's YPF to acquire a 50% stake and operational rights in Uruguay's offshore exploration block OFF-5 signifies a deepening strategic partnership in the Southern Cone region, pending approval from Uruguayan authorities [1] Group 1: Transaction Details - Eni Group has signed an agreement with YPF to acquire 50% of the OFF-5 offshore exploration block, which is approximately 200 kilometers from the Uruguayan coast and covers an area of 17,000 square kilometers [1] - YPF obtained development rights for the OFF-5 block in 2023 and has completed geological assessments and 3D modeling [1] Group 2: Market Context - Although Uruguay has not yet achieved commercial oil and gas discoveries offshore, geological data indicates that its Atlantic margin structures are highly similar to Namibia's Orange Basin [1] - All seven offshore blocks in Uruguay have been contracted, attracting major global energy players such as Shell and APA Group, highlighting international market recognition of the region's potential [1] Group 3: Strategic Implications - This move positions Eni within the core exploration landscape of South America, potentially facilitating Uruguay's breakthrough in offshore energy commercialization and reshaping its Atlantic oil landscape [1] - The partnership is expected to strengthen the influence of the Italy-Argentina energy cooperation axis and provide a new paradigm for energy collaborative development in the Southern Cone [1]

Core Insights - YPF is undergoing significant changes quarter by quarter, indicating a dynamic evolution within the company [1] Company Analysis - The analysis focuses on connecting macroeconomic dynamics with company-level valuation to identify long-term investment opportunities [1] - The investment approach emphasizes deep value and a long-term perspective, particularly on underfollowed names and structural stories in leading companies [1] Market Context - The analyst has a firsthand view of the complexities and dynamics of the Argentine market, which enhances the depth of local asset coverage [1] - Broader Latin American and global trends are also considered in the analysis, providing a comprehensive view of the market landscape [1]

Core Insights - Eni has agreed to acquire a 50% stake and operatorship in exploration Block OFF-5 offshore Uruguay from YPF, pending approval from Uruguayan authorities [1] - The exploration block covers 16,883 km² at water depths between 800m and 4,100m and is currently in its initial exploration phase [1][2] - The deal enhances collaboration between Eni and YPF, following recent agreements related to the Argentina LNG project [2] Eni's Activities in Nigeria - Eni, through its subsidiary Nigeria Agip Exploration, has acquired an additional 2.5% interest in Nigeria's OML 118 deep-water block from TotalEnergies EP Nigeria, increasing its share from 12.5% to 15% [3] - OML 118 includes the producing Bonga field, where NAE holds a non-operating stake [3] - Eni has been operating in Nigeria since 1962 and reported an average equity production of 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2025 [4] - The acquisition aligns with Eni's strategy to optimize its upstream portfolio and maintain involvement in deep-water projects within Nigeria [4]

Core Insights - Eni has signed a deal to acquire a 50% interest and operatorship of the offshore exploration Block OFF-5 in Uruguay from YPF, marking a strategic move into a less explored area of the Atlantic Margin [1][5] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The offshore Block OFF-5 covers an area of 16,883 km² and is located approximately 200 kilometers off the Uruguayan coast, with water depths ranging from 800 to 4,100 meters [2] - The block is currently in its first exploration period and is operated by MIWEN, a wholly owned subsidiary of YPF [2] Group 2: Strategic Alignment - This acquisition aligns with Eni's strategy of balancing infrastructure-led exploration with selective frontier opportunities that could yield significant returns [3] - Eni plans to utilize its proprietary subsurface and imaging technologies to enhance appraisal and unlock value in the deepwater acreage [3] Group 3: Cross-Border Relationship - The agreement strengthens the cross-border relationship between Eni and YPF, following recent partnerships related to the Argentina LNG project [4] - Eni has been selected as a strategic partner for key phases of the Argentina LNG project and is positioned as a preferred operator for new exploration initiatives in the Southern Cone [4] Group 4: Market Implications - If approved, the entry into Block OFF-5 would provide Eni with a foothold in a promising but underexplored Atlantic play, coinciding with Uruguay's efforts to revive offshore activity [5] - For YPF, this deal facilitates risk-sharing and reinforces cooperation with an experienced international partner in frontier deepwater exploration [5]

Core Insights - YPF Sociedad Anónima reported Q3 2025 earnings of 84 cents per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 82 cents, but down from $3.75 in the same quarter last year [1][9] - Total revenues for the quarter were $4.64 billion, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.05 billion and down from $5.3 billion year-over-year [1] Operational Performance - Total hydrocarbon production decreased by 6.4% year-over-year to 523.1 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (Mboe/d) [3] - Crude oil production averaged 239.8 thousand barrels per day (MBbl/D), down from 255.8 MBbl/D a year ago, primarily due to lower conventional production from mature fields [3] - Natural gas production fell by 4.8% year-over-year to 38.4 million cubic meters per day, affected by lower conventional gas output [4] Price Realizations - Average price realization for crude oil decreased by 12.1% year-over-year to $60 per barrel [5] - Average natural gas price realizations fell by 3% year-over-year to $4.3 per million British thermal unit [5] - Adjusted EBITDA from upstream activities increased by 32.9% year-over-year to $1,042 million, driven by lower lifting costs and growth in seasonal natural gas sales [5] Midstream & Downstream - Processed crude volumes reached 326.2 MBbl/D, a 9.3% increase from 298.3 MBbl/D in the prior year [6] - Refinery utilization rate improved to 96.5% from 88.3% year-over-year [6] - Adjusted EBITDA from the midstream and downstream segment was reported at $354 million, down 25.6% year-over-year due to a fall in local fuel prices [6] Operating Expenses - Total operating expenses decreased by 30.9% year-over-year to $1,356 million, attributed to cost savings from reduced exposure to conventional mature fields and increased shale production [7] Cash Flow - Net cash flow from operating activities totaled $1,225 million, while the company reported a negative free cash flow of $759 million for the quarter [8] Balance Sheet - As of September 30, 2025, YPF had cash and short-term investments of $1.02 billion and total debt of $10.6 billion [10]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for the third quarter amounted to $4.6 billion, a 12% decrease year-on-year, reflecting a 13% decline in Brent prices [3][4] - Adjusted EBITDA reached approximately $1.4 billion, showing a sequential increase of over 20% while remaining flat compared to the previous year [3][4] - Free cash flow was negative at $759 million, primarily due to the acquisition of shale assets and the impact of the mature field exit strategy [8][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shale production increased by 35% year-on-year, reaching 170,000 barrels per day, with preliminary figures indicating a further 12% increase in October [4][14] - Total hydrocarbon production averaged 523,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, down 4% sequentially and 6% year-on-year [11] - Downstream segment achieved the highest processing level since 2009 at 326,000 barrels per day, a 9% increase year-on-year [7][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Crude oil realization price averaged $60 per barrel, flat sequentially but down 12% year-on-year [12] - Natural gas prices increased by 6% quarter-over-quarter to an average of $4.3 per MBTU [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on operational efficiency and the development of unconventional resources, with 70% of CapEx directed towards shale activities [5][18] - YPF aims to become a 100% pure shale player with a competitive lifting cost structure of around $5 per BOE in the near future [18] - The Argentina LNG project is progressing, with a Technical FID signed for a fully integrated LNG project expandable to 18 million tons per year [9][27] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining profitability despite international price contractions, driven by an improved production mix and operational efficiencies [3][4] - The company anticipates a clean year in 2026, with improved visibility on results and shareholder value creation [72][74] Other Important Information - Net debt increased to $9.6 billion, with a net leverage ratio of 2.1x, but pro forma adjustments would show a lower ratio [8][29] - The company successfully issued $500 million in international bonds at an 8.25% yield, the lowest interest rate for an international bond in recent years [9][33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Production growth outlook for 2026 and 2027 - Management expects production to average around 215,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 290,000 barrels per day in 2027 [38] Question: Development of the Refinor asset and refining portfolio - Refinor provides logistical advantages, and management is focused on maximizing shareholder value through strategic decisions [39] Question: Future M&A activities and capital allocation - The company will remain active in portfolio management but does not foresee major acquisitions in the near term [43] Question: Working capital losses and future expectations - Negative working capital was driven by seasonality and longer collection days, with normalization expected in the coming quarters [53] Question: Lifting costs trajectory and leverage comfort level - Management is working to reduce unit costs and aims to maintain leverage at comfortable levels, with a reduction expected in 2026 [59] Question: Update on downstream pricing and divestment of MetroGAS - The company is implementing a dynamic pricing model and is in the process of negotiating divestments from conventional assets [61][65]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues amounted to $4.6 billion, a 12% decline year-on-year, in line with a 13% decrease in Brent prices [3][4] - Adjusted EBITDA reached approximately $1.4 billion, reflecting a sequential increase of over 20% while remaining flat compared to the previous year [3][4] - Free cash flow was negative at $759 million, primarily due to the acquisition of shale assets and the impact of the mature field exit strategy [8][29] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shale production increased by 35% year-on-year, reaching 170,000 barrels per day, with preliminary figures indicating a further 12% increase in October [4][12] - Downstream segment achieved the highest processing level since 2009 at 326,000 barrels per day, a 9% increase year-on-year [7][22] - Oil production reached 240,000 barrels per day, down 3% sequentially and 6% year-on-year, while natural gas production totaled 38.4 million cubic meters per day, down 3% sequentially [11][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Crude oil realization price averaged $60 per barrel, flat sequentially but down 12% year-on-year [12] - Natural gas prices increased by 6% quarter-over-quarter to an average of $4.3 per MBTU [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on shale operations, with 70% of total quarterly investment directed towards developing unconventional resources [5][10] - The strategy includes divesting mature conventional fields and enhancing operational efficiency in shale production [17][18] - The Argentina LNG project is progressing, with a technical FID signed for a fully integrated LNG project expandable to 18 million tons per year [9][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining profitability despite international price contractions, driven by an improved production mix [4][10] - The company anticipates a clean year in 2026, with expectations for improved results and shareholder value [72] Other Important Information - Net debt increased to $9.6 billion, with a net leverage ratio of 2.1 times, but pro forma adjustments would show a lower ratio [8][29] - The company successfully issued $500 million in international bonds at an 8.25% yield, the lowest interest rate for an international bond in recent years [9][33] Q&A Session Summary Question: Production growth outlook for 2026 and 2027 - Management expects production to average around 215,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 290,000 barrels per day in 2027 [38] Question: Development of the Refinor asset and refining portfolio - Refinor provides logistical advantages, and management is focused on maximizing shareholder value through strategic decisions [39] Question: Future M&A activities and capital allocation - The company will remain active in portfolio management but does not foresee major acquisitions in the near term [43] Question: Working capital losses and future expectations - Negative working capital was driven by seasonality and longer collection days, with expectations for normalization in the coming quarters [53] Question: Lifting costs trajectory and asset costs for 2026 - Management is working to reduce unit costs and expects to maintain low lifting costs [59] Question: Update on MetroGas divestment - The company is in the process of negotiating the divestment and aims to exit conventional assets to focus on unconventional operations [65]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues for the third quarter amounted to $4.6 billion, a 12% decrease year-on-year, reflecting a 13% decline in Brent prices [3][4] - Adjusted EBITDA reached approximately $1.4 billion, showing a sequential increase of over 20% while remaining flat compared to the previous year [3][4] - Free cash flow was negative at $759 million, primarily due to the acquisition of shale assets and the impact of the mature field exit strategy [7][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Shale production increased by 35% year-on-year, reaching 170,000 barrels per day, with preliminary figures indicating a further increase to 190,000 barrels per day in October [4][12] - The downstream segment achieved the highest processing level since 2009 at 326,000 barrels per day, a 9% increase year-on-year [6][21] - Oil production averaged 240,000 barrels per day, down 3% sequentially and 6% year-on-year, while natural gas production totaled 38.4 million cubic meters per day, down 3% sequentially [11][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Crude oil realization price averaged $60 per barrel, flat sequentially but down 12% year-on-year [12] - Natural gas prices increased by 6% quarter-over-quarter to an average of $4.3 per MBTU [12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company continues to focus on developing unconventional resources, with 70% of total quarterly investment directed towards shale operations [5][8] - YPF aims to become a 100% pure shale player with an efficient lifting cost structure of around $5 per BOE in the near future [18] - The Argentina LNG project is progressing, with a technical FID signed for a fully integrated LNG project expandable to 18 million tons per year [9][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in maintaining profitability despite international price contractions, driven by an improved production mix and operational efficiencies [3][4] - The company anticipates a clean year in 2026, with improved visibility on results and value creation for shareholders [53] Other Important Information - Net debt increased to $9.6 billion, with a net leverage ratio of 2.1 times, but pro forma adjustments would show a lower ratio [8][28] - The La Plata Refinery was recognized as the Refinery of the Year in Latin America, reflecting operational excellence [6][24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Production growth outlook for 2026 and 2027 - Management expects production to average around 215,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 290,000 barrels per day in 2027 [34] Question: Developments regarding the Refinor asset and refining portfolio - The Refinor asset provides logistical advantages, and management is focused on maximizing shareholder value through strategic decisions [35] Question: Future M&A activity and capital allocation - The company will remain active in portfolio management but does not foresee major acquisitions in the near term [36][37] Question: Working capital losses and future expectations - Negative working capital was driven by seasonality and longer collection days, with normalization expected in the coming quarters [42][44] Question: Lifting costs trajectory and leverage comfort level - Management aims to reduce unit costs and is comfortable with the current leverage ratio, expecting a reduction in 2026 [45][46]

Core Insights - YPF Sociedad Anonima reported a revenue of $4.64 billion for the quarter ended September 2025, reflecting a 12.4% decrease year-over-year and a surprise of -7.99% compared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.05 billion [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $0.84, significantly lower than the $3.75 reported in the same quarter last year, but slightly above the consensus estimate of $0.82, resulting in an EPS surprise of +2.44% [1] Financial Performance - Total production in the upstream segment was 523.10 Kboed, slightly below the two-analyst average estimate of 524.56 Kboed [4] - Upstream operating revenues were reported at $1.97 billion, exceeding the two-analyst average estimate of $1.92 billion [4] - Operating revenues from crude oil in the upstream segment were $1.32 billion, marginally below the average estimate of $1.33 billion [4] - Midstream and downstream operating revenues totaled $3.72 billion, which was below the two-analyst average estimate of $3.78 billion [4] - Other upstream operating revenues were reported at $33 million, significantly lower than the average estimate of $74.19 million [4] - Upstream operating revenues from natural gas reached $611 million, surpassing the average estimate of $521.97 million [4] Stock Performance - YPF Sociedad Anonima's shares have returned +37.4% over the past month, contrasting with a -0.2% change in the Zacks S&P 500 composite [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Group 1 - YPF, Argentina's state-controlled energy company, reported a net loss of $198 million in the third quarter [1]