Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Insights - Amer Sports reported Q4 and full-year results for 2025, exceeding market expectations with revenue and net profit growth of 27% and 489% respectively, with Greater China revenue increasing by 43.4% [3][15] - Jiangnan Buyi's FY2026H1 revenue, net profit, and operating cash flow were 3.376 billion, 676 million, and 996 million CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 7.0%, 11.9%, and 21.1% respectively [4][16] - The report highlights a strong expectation for upstream price increases in manufacturing, particularly for wool and cotton, with recommendations for specific companies benefiting from these trends [5][17] Summary by Sections Company Performance - Amer Sports' brand performance showed significant growth, with Arc'teryx, Salomon, and Wilson revenues increasing by 30%, 31%, and 13% respectively [3][15] - Jiangnan Buyi declared an interim dividend of 0.52 HKD per share, yielding a 5.18% dividend rate [4][16] Market Trends - The report notes a strong expectation for price increases in raw materials, including wool and cotton, with recommendations for companies like Baolong Oriental and New Australia [5][17] - The easing of tariffs is expected to positively impact the industry, with a potential reduction of 5%-10% in tariffs on Chinese goods exported to the U.S. [4][16] Online Sales Data - Sales data from Taobao and Tmall for January 2026 showed a year-on-year increase in sportswear sales by 15.81%, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [5][17] - The outdoor category saw significant growth, with sales for outdoor climbing and camping gear increasing by 25.63% [5][17] Raw Material Prices - As of February 27, 2026, the Chinese cotton price index rose to 16,731 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3.88% increase [8][32] - Wool prices have increased by 4.13% year-to-date, with the Australian wool market index at 1,716 AUD/kg [8][39] Export Data - In 2025, textile and apparel exports decreased by 2.26% year-on-year, with textile exports growing by 0.5% and apparel exports declining by 5% [51][52] - Vietnam's footwear exports showed a positive trend, with a year-on-year increase of 7.79% in January 2026 [60][61]

2025 年中国高端消费市场初显回暖信号，呈现理性复苏与结构性分化特征。全年境内个人奢侈品市场同比降幅收窄至 3%-5%，虽仍处调整期，但相较 2019 年仍保持 50% 以上增长体量，长期成长韧性凸显。市场复苏呈 "前低后高" 的 J 型修复，3Q25 起受资本市场回暖与政策发力带动，景气度持续回升，4Q25 销售额同比转正至 1%-3%。 品类方面，消费结构从 "物质占有" 向 "体验优先" 转型。高端服务消费表现亮眼，奢华酒店 RP 持平、入境邮轮游客同比激增 210%，健康保健、旅游等体 验类消费成为高净值人群支出增长重点；商品端呈 K 型分化，美妆个护逆势增长 4%-7%，珠宝品类降幅收窄至 0%-5%，而皮具箱包、腕表分别下滑 8%-11% 和 14%-17%。 复苏动力源于多因素共振：境内外奢侈品价差显著收窄至 12% 左右，叠加消费回流趋势，为内地市场带来增量；促消费政策落地、海南封关与离岛免税新 政拓宽消费渠道；楼市企稳与股市慢牛释放财富效应，高净值人群消费信心修复；外资品牌加强本土化适配，产品与营销更贴合中国市场需求。 人群特征呈现代际分化：Z 世代以悦己消费和文化自信为核心，偏好国潮与线 ...

【导读】2026年春节消费市场提"质"增"趣"，服务消费成核心增长引擎 2026年春节假期，一份超预期的成绩单勾勒出消费新图景。必选消费稳步回暖，服务消费全面爆发，文 旅、餐饮、出行服务等赛道热度攀升，消费市场不仅实现了从"量"到"质"的进阶，更涌现出文化打卡、 冰雪体验、AI+消费等多元新玩法。 根据调研数据，多位业内人士表示，2026年春节的消费数据整体上比市场预期更好，呈现出必选消费温 和复苏、服务消费如火如荼的景象。 对于今年春节消费市场的亮点，鹏扬消费主题基金经理曹敏表示，必选消费方面：白酒龙头的动销恢复 增长，速冻、调味品等餐饮链公司的出货明显复苏，餐饮连锁包括火锅龙头和快餐在节日期间的翻台率 为近两年内最佳水平。 出行服务消费方面：在各地区支持服务消费的政策加持下，热门景区（长白山（603099）、三峡、九华 等）的客流增长明显加速，国内航空客流及票价温和增长，尤为超预期的是上市酒店集团的RevPAR （衡量客房收入指标）水平回到个位数增长。 今年春节，不同消费类目表现也有所差异。汇丰晋信消费红利基金基金经理费馨涵分析指出，从大类来 看，服务性消费的表现好于商品消费，这一趋势从2025年四季度到 ...

2026 年春节期间消费市场表现强劲，社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长 8.7%，显示出消费活力的显著提升，为相关行业带来积极影响。 黄金珠宝行业在春节期间表现出色，老铺黄金等古法金品牌增速翻倍， 周大福、潮宏基等龙头品牌也实现 15%以上的增长，表明消费者对黄金 珠宝的需求依然旺盛。 免税行业符合预期，海南离岛免税销售额同比增长 20.9%，购物人数增 长 25.7%，中国中免在海口和三亚的销售额也保持稳定增长，反映出免 税消费市场的持续繁荣。 酒店业表现超出预期，全国酒店 RevPAR 同比增长 30%，ADR 同比增 长 13.5%，OCC 同比增长 8.1%，表明旅游市场的复苏带动了酒店业的 增长。 餐饮业整体经济状况良好，头部企业价格提升，翻台率创新高，客流量 实现双位数增长，表明餐饮消费市场的活力得到有效释放。 尽管港股中免税板块近期表现较弱，但长期来看，高端消费复苏将驱动 免税行业增长，因此仍然看好整个免税行业的发展前景。 美国关税调整降低了出海成本，提高了风险偏好，为安克创新、小商品 城等出海企业带来较好的买入时机，预计其估值和增速将在后续季度持 续提升。 Q&A 2026 年春节假期的整体消费数 ...

证券研究报告 可选消费 海外看中国：高端消费复苏启示录 可选消费 增持 (维持) 樊俊豪 研究员 SAC No. S0570524050001 SFC No. BDO986 fanjunhao@htsc.com +(852) 3658 6000 曾珺 研究员 SAC No. S0570523120004 SFC No. BTM417 惠普 研究员 SAC No. S0570524090006 SFC No. BSE005 孙丹阳 研究员 SAC No. S0570519010001 sundanyang@htsc.com SFC No. BQQ696 +(86) 21 2897 2038 张霜凝* 研究员 SAC No. S0570525070015 zhangshuangning@htsc.com 华泰研究 复盘 2025 年海外集团在华经营表现，我们认为我国高端消费初显回暖信号。 以 LVMH 为例，FY3Q25 中国区销售额回正，录得中-高个位数同比增长 （vs1H25 亚太区：-9%），改善趋势逐步显现。品类上看，消费者重视价 值与体验，从面子走向里子，高端服务消费领先复苏，高端商品表现分化。 拉长看 ...

白酒春节反馈总结：关注高端及大众价位超预期表现 大众价位带（今世缘等）则受益于#超长假期走亲访友及大众聚饮宴席需求的爆发。 茅台：#动销量超预期，春节飞天线下渠道动销增长20%，考虑i茅台投放增长超30%，主因春节期间#个人消费群 体对散茅的需求爆发（往年茅台备货节前大部分提前完成）。 预计1-2月茅台任务完成度将达45%（比往年快10个点），一季度达50%，将压力前置。 当前库存几乎为零，为后续批价坚挺提供基础，但由于非标系列缩量明显（同比下滑20-30%），需关注后续酒厂 供给端调整。 总体情况：量的层面预计动销整体下滑10%左右，考虑价格因素下滑15-20%，略好于预期，其中高端及大众价位 带表现较优。 具体来看，高端（茅、五）#降价后需求弹性凸显，激发了大众消费热度，相应弥补政商场景的缺失，此外#禁酒 令压制的礼赠需求也在春节有一定释放。 大众价位带（今世缘等）则受益于#超长假期走亲访友及大众聚饮宴席需求的爆发。 白酒春节反馈总结：关注高端及大众价位超预期表现 总体情况：量的层面预计动销整体下滑10%左右，考虑价格因素下滑15-20%，略好于预期，其中高端及大众价位 带表现较优。 具体来看，高端（茅、 ...

Core Insights - The high-end beauty market is showing signs of recovery, with L'Oréal and Estée Lauder reporting positive sales growth and improved profitability in their recent financial results [1][2][4] Group 1: Financial Performance - L'Oréal achieved sales of €44.05 billion (approximately ¥360 billion) in 2025, marking a 4% year-on-year increase, with the North Asia region, including China, showing a 0.5% growth after two years of decline [1] - Estée Lauder reported a 6% increase in sales to $4.229 billion for the second fiscal quarter of 2026, significantly improving its net profit to $162 million from a loss of $590 million in the previous year [1][3] - L'Oréal's professional hair products segment led the growth with a 7.5% comparable increase, surpassing €5 billion, while the skincare segment grew by 5.5% to €7.2 billion [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recovery in the beauty sector is attributed to restored consumer confidence and proactive adjustments in product structure and channel efficiency by major brands [2][4] - Both L'Oréal and Estée Lauder's recovery signals a cyclical turnaround in the beauty industry and reflect the resilience and potential of the Chinese consumer market [2][4] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - Estée Lauder has restructured its organization to treat the Chinese market as a strategic core, reporting a full-year sales figure of $2.741 billion (approximately ¥19.6 billion) for the mainland China market, which accounts for nearly 20% of the company's overall sales [6][7] - L'Oréal emphasized its leading position in the Chinese market, with e-commerce sales surpassing 30% of total sales for the first time in 2025, highlighting the importance of digital channels [7] Group 4: Consumer Trends - The demand for high-end and ultra-high-end skincare products is stabilizing, driven by higher frequency of use and emotional value associated with these products [4][6] - The overall cosmetics market in China reached a transaction value of ¥1.104245 trillion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.83%, solidifying its position as the largest cosmetics market globally [7]

Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector in A-shares has outperformed the broader market since February, with the textile manufacturing segment rising by 3.6% compared to a 2.0% increase in brand apparel [11] - The Hong Kong textile and apparel index has increased by 4.4% since February, also outperforming the market [11] - Notable companies with significant stock price increases include Under Armour (14.9%), Amer Sports (9.7%), and Jiangnan Buyi (9.6%) [11] Brand Apparel Insights - In December, the year-on-year growth of clothing retail sales was 0.6%, with a slowdown in growth compared to previous months [5] - January saw a 32.5% decline in operating income for sports retailer BaoSheng International, indicating pressure on overall clothing retail [5] - E-commerce sales rebounded in January, driven by promotional activities and pre-Spring Festival purchasing [5] - Outdoor apparel categories showed strong growth, with year-on-year increases of 17% for outdoor clothing and 5% for sports apparel [5] - Leading brands in growth include Lululemon (47%), Descente (29%), and Adidas (16%) in the sports apparel segment [5] Textile Manufacturing Insights - Vietnam's textile exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year in January, while footwear exports rose by 7.8% [5] - The macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals, with PMI in Indonesia and India rising, while Vietnam's PMI decreased slightly but remains above 50 [5] - Wool prices have increased by 15.3% since the beginning of the year, with a year-on-year increase of 54.9% as of February 5 [5] - Taiwanese companies are experiencing short-term revenue pressure but show optimistic growth prospects, particularly with the upcoming 2026 World Cup driving demand for football-related products [5] Company Performance Forecasts - Several companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Bailong Dongfang and Tianhong International, are expected to see net profit growth of over 40% [2] - Key drivers for profit growth include increased order volumes, improved capacity utilization, and lower raw material costs [2] - Le Xin Outdoor, a leading global fishing gear manufacturer, is projected to maintain a 23.1% market share in 2024 [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brands that are likely to benefit from the Spring Festival sales surge and the performance elasticity of upstream suppliers [5] - High-end consumer recovery is anticipated, particularly in the light luxury sports and outdoor segments [5] - Companies such as Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International are recommended for their strong positioning in the market [5] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming 2026 World Cup in driving orders for sports apparel and footwear [5]

Market Overview - The textile and apparel sector in A-shares has outperformed the broader market since February, with the textile manufacturing index rising by 3.6% and the brand apparel index by 2.0% [11] - The Hong Kong textile and apparel index has increased by 4.4% since February, also outperforming the market [11] - Notable companies with significant stock price increases include Under Armour (14.9%), Amer Sports (9.7%), and Jiangnan Buyi (9.6%) [11] Brand Apparel Insights - In December, the year-on-year growth of clothing retail sales was 0.6%, with a slowdown in growth compared to previous months [5] - January saw a 32.5% decline in operating income for sports retailer BaoSheng International, attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival [5] - E-commerce sales in January rebounded, driven by promotional activities and pre-holiday purchases, with outdoor apparel leading growth at 17% year-on-year [5] - Key brands showing strong growth in the sports apparel category include Lululemon (47%), Descente (29%), and Adidas (16%) [5] Textile Manufacturing Insights - Vietnam's textile exports increased by 8.3% year-on-year in January, while footwear exports rose by 7.8% [5] - The macroeconomic environment shows mixed signals, with PMI in Indonesia and India rising, while Vietnam's PMI slightly decreased but remains above 50 [5] - Wool prices have increased by 15.3% year-to-date, with a year-on-year increase of 54.9% as of February 5 [5] - Companies like RuHong and GuangYue are experiencing revenue growth due to order continuity and optimized production structures [5] Annual Performance Forecasts - Several companies in the textile and apparel sector, including Bailong Dongfang and Tianhong International, have issued profit forecasts indicating over 40% growth in net profit [2] - Factors contributing to this growth include full order books, improved capacity utilization, and declining raw material costs [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brands that are likely to benefit from the Spring Festival sales surge and the performance elasticity of upstream suppliers [5] - High-end consumer recovery is anticipated, particularly in the light luxury sports and outdoor segments [5] - Key recommendations include Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Xtep International, which are well-positioned to capture market growth [5] Key Company Earnings Forecasts - Anta Sports is rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 4.72 for 2025 and 4.98 for 2026 [6] - Li Ning is also rated "Outperform" with an expected EPS of 1.01 for 2025 and 1.08 for 2026 [6] - Other companies such as Xtep International and 361 Degrees are similarly rated "Outperform" with positive earnings forecasts [6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The notes focus on the Macau gaming industry, highlighting the recovery of high-end consumption and its impact on gaming revenue growth [1][1]. Key Points - **Macau Gaming Revenue**: In January, Macau's gross gaming revenue reached MOP 22.63 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 24%, significantly exceeding market expectations of 18.5% [1][1]. - **High-End Consumer Trends**: The growth in the gaming industry is primarily driven by high-end clientele, confirming the trend of high-end consumption recovery that has been noted since Q2 of the previous year [1][1]. - **Comparison with Sands Q4 Performance**: Sands' Q4 performance indicates that high-end (VIP + premium mass) segments continue to lead industry growth, while the recovery rate for the mass market is only at 95% of 2019 levels, compared to a 117% recovery rate for the premium mass segment, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6 percentage points [1][1]. - **February Outlook**: The upcoming Chinese New Year in February is expected to be dominated by the mass market, which may lead to a situation where visitor numbers increase but revenue does not, potentially causing a downward fluctuation in gaming revenue growth [1][1]. Investment Strategy - **Supply-Side Focus**: The investment strategy emphasizes a supply-driven approach, identifying Galaxy and Sands as the main winners in the next 1-2 years due to the benefits from new high-end supply, with both companies showing upward market share in Q4 [1][1]. Additional Insights - **Sands Q4 Margin**: Although Sands' Q4 margin was below expectations, management anticipates a potential slowdown in rebate marketing competition in 2026, which could lead to an upward trend in margins [2][2]. - **Other Beneficiaries**: Attention is also drawn to other companies benefiting from the high-end consumption recovery, including China Duty Free Group, Zhuhai Duty Free Group (key players at the Zhuhai-Macau border), and Zhongsheng Holdings [3][3].