更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 高端消费回暖了吗 20260104 摘要 Q&A 2025 年下半年以来,高端消费市场是否出现了复苏迹象?具体表现如何? 高端消费复苏的背后有哪些主要支撑因素? 高端消费复苏的核心支撑因素主要来自于高净值人群。从 2024年的数据来看, 国内高端消费规模约为1.6 万亿元,同比小幅下滑 2%。尽管与 2021 年的峰值相 比仍有一定差距,但整体韧性较强。传统奢侈品、高端烟酒茶等商品的收缩是导 致下滑的主要原因。然而,高净值人群对奢侈品行业贡献度从2019年的 30%提 升至 2024-2025年的 45%-47%,接近 50%。这部分人群数量相对稳定,其财富来 源主要包括投资收益、分红和少量工资收入。在投资方向上,他们更早增持黄金 并减持地产投资,这些变化对其财富有一定支撑效益。此外,高净值人群边际消 费倾向较中产阶级更强,这也是高端消费持续增长的重要动力。 高端消费结构发生了哪些变化?未来有哪些增长点? 高端消费结构正在从传统商品向体验型服务转变。疫情前全球奢侈品行业中 40% 由商品贡献,45%由体验型商品贡献,仅15%来自纯体验服务。而疫情后,传 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of service consumption in 2026, highlighting a year of strategic layout and potential improvements in specific sectors and cycles [4][6][8] - The overall recovery of the service sector is characterized by a moderate rebound and structural prosperity, with service consumption growth outpacing that of goods consumption [11][12] - The report identifies three key changes affecting demand, policy, and technology, including a shift towards more rational consumer behavior, the impact of policy and globalization on corporate decisions, and accelerated technological iterations [11][4][6] Group 2 - The investment strategy for 2026 focuses on boosting domestic demand, with significant potential for service consumption in China compared to developed countries [19][26] - The report outlines specific sub-sectors such as duty-free, hotels, and education, which are expected to perform differently based on demand and supply dynamics [7][8][34] - Recommendations include focusing on cyclical recovery and sector-specific prosperity, with suggested investments in companies like China Duty Free Group, Huazhu Group, and Meituan [4][34][8] Group 3 - The report notes that the service sector has underperformed compared to the broader market, with a year-to-date increase of 14.55%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index [14][12] - Structural trends indicate that leading companies in tea drinks and hotels have outperformed, while duty-free and hotel stocks have shown strength in the fourth quarter [14][12] - The report highlights the importance of policy measures aimed at enhancing service consumption, including various initiatives to stimulate demand and improve the consumer environment [26][28][27]

消息面上，里昂近期研报称，展望中国消费板块将聚焦于细分领域的发展机遇，以及高端消费市道受惠 于货币政策放松、股市改善及离岸融资增加的复苏进展，预期居民消费情绪与CPI数据将维持温和，预 期企业将捕捉细分市场规模化、全球化扩张及高端消费复苏的机会，列新秀丽为三大首选股之一。 高盛此前指出，新秀丽管理层相较8月业绩电话会议，最新一次电话会议对业务展望看来更为乐观，并 预期9月推出的新产品及进入旺季前加码广告活动推动下，第四季度净销售增长将较第三季度改善。高 盛认为，新秀丽明年潜在的美国双重上市，以及股份回购以减轻稀释影响，将成为该股未来进一步价值 重估的催化剂。 智通财经APP获悉，新秀丽(01910)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.14%，报20.36港元，成交额1亿港元。 ...

Company Summary - Yuanyuan Group (00551) experienced an intraday increase of over 4%, with a current rise of 3.04%, trading at HKD 16.94, with a transaction volume of HKD 49.26 million [1] - On December 10, Yuanyuan Group announced a projected net operating income of approximately USD 660 million for November 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% [1] - For the first eleven months, the cumulative net operating income was approximately USD 7.38 billion, down 1.6% year-on-year [1] - Retail business revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was USD 1.79 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.9%, impacted by a weak retail environment and intensified competition [1] - Same-store sales experienced a double-digit decline, while the number of offline direct-operated stores decreased by 3.5% to 3,338 [1] - Online revenue, however, grew by 13% year-on-year, accounting for 33% of total revenue, with live-streaming income more than doubling [1] Industry Summary - According to Credit Lyonnais, the outlook for the Chinese consumer sector will focus on development opportunities in niche markets, with high-end consumption benefiting from monetary policy easing, stock market improvements, and increased offshore financing [1] - It is anticipated that consumer sentiment and CPI data will remain moderate, with companies poised to capture opportunities in market scaling, globalization, and the recovery of high-end consumption [1] - Credit Lyonnais forecasts that the retail sales of sports apparel in China will grow by 3% to 4% year-on-year next year, believing that major brands are optimizing retail channels and enhancing product functionality innovation [1]

Company Summary - Yuanyuan Group (00551) experienced a stock price increase of over 4% during trading, with a current price of HKD 16.94 and a trading volume of HKD 49.26 million [1] - On December 10, Yuanyuan Group announced a projected net operating income of approximately USD 660 million for November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% [1] - For the first eleven months, the cumulative net operating income was approximately USD 7.38 billion, down 1.6% year-on-year [1] - Retail business revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was USD 1.79 billion, a decline of 7.9% year-on-year, attributed to a weak retail environment and intensified competition [1] - Same-store sales experienced a double-digit decline, while the number of offline direct-operated stores decreased by 3.5% to 3,338 [1] - Online revenue, however, grew by 13% year-on-year, accounting for 33% of total revenue, with live-streaming revenue more than doubling [1] Industry Summary - According to Credit Lyonnais, the outlook for the Chinese consumer sector will focus on opportunities in niche markets, with high-end consumption benefiting from relaxed monetary policy, improved stock markets, and increased offshore financing [1] - It is expected that consumer sentiment and CPI data will remain moderate, allowing companies to capture opportunities in market scaling, globalization, and the recovery of high-end consumption [1] - Credit Lyonnais forecasts that the retail sales of sports apparel in China will grow by 3% to 4% year-on-year next year, with major brands optimizing retail channels and enhancing product functionality [1]

Company Overview - Yuanyuan Group (00551) saw its stock price increase by 3.22% to HKD 16.97, with a trading volume of HKD 53.59 million [5] - The company announced a net operating income of approximately USD 660 million for November 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1% [5] - Cumulative net operating income for the first 11 months was approximately USD 7.382 billion, down 1.6% year-on-year [5] Retail Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, retail revenue was USD 1.79 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.9% due to a weak retail environment and intensified competition [5] - Same-store sales experienced a double-digit decline, while the number of offline direct-operated stores decreased by 3.5% to 3,338 [5] - Online revenue, however, grew by 13%, accounting for 33% of total revenue, with live-streaming revenue more than doubling year-on-year [5] Industry Outlook - According to Credit Lyonnais, the Chinese consumer sector is expected to focus on opportunities in niche markets, with high-end consumption benefiting from relaxed monetary policy, improved stock markets, and increased offshore financing [5] - It is anticipated that consumer sentiment and CPI data will remain moderate, allowing companies to capture opportunities in market scaling, globalization, and high-end consumption recovery [5] - Credit Lyonnais forecasts a 3% to 4% year-on-year growth in China's sportswear retail sales for the coming year, believing that major brands are optimizing retail channels and enhancing product functionality [5]

Macro Economic Group - The US November Services PMI is reported at 52.4%, slightly below the expected 52% and down from October's 52.6%. New orders decreased by 3.1 percentage points to 52.9%, while the price index fell by 4.6 percentage points to 65.4%. The employment index is at 48.9%, indicating contraction for the sixth consecutive month [3][4] - The ADP employment data for November shows a decrease of 31,000 jobs, contrary to the expected increase of 5,000 jobs. The previous month's data was revised from an increase of 42,000 to 47,000. This report is significant as it is the last employment data available before the Federal Reserve's meeting on December 10, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut [4] Industry Comprehensive Group - LME copper reached a historical high of $11,500 per ton, with a daily increase of over 3.2%. LME three-month tin rose by 3.45% to $40,385 per ton. The prices of rare earths have rebounded over 5% in the past month, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices rising to the range of 595,000-598,000 yuan per ton. The price of tungsten APT has also surpassed 510,000 yuan per ton, with a more than 100% increase in the second half of the year [7] - The overall trend indicates a sustained increase in non-ferrous metal prices, driven by a long-term weakening of the dollar and the competitive pricing of Chinese industrial products in global markets, particularly in developing countries [7] Advanced Manufacturing Group - Recent research indicates a significant supply-demand mismatch for core solvents EC and additive VC, leading to price elasticity. The market is dominated by two companies, which control about 80% of the EC market share, and both have no plans for capacity expansion. The price of EC has risen from 4,300 yuan per ton to 6,200 yuan per ton [10] - The demand for VC has surged, pushing its price above 230,000 yuan per ton, which further constricts the supply of battery-grade EC, exacerbating the shortage. The lack of new capacity and the supply squeeze suggest that EC prices are likely to continue rising [10] Consumer Group - In the duty-free sector, sales growth in Hainan's offshore duty-free market reached double digits in October and November. New duty-free stores have opened in key cities like Xi'an and Changsha, supported by policies that expand eligible consumer groups and product categories [12] - High-end consumption is recovering, with notable performance from leading retailers like Hangzhou Tower and Henglong, which have seen significant revenue growth and improved profitability. This trend is reflected in the high demand for luxury goods and the robust performance of Macau's gaming sector [12]

Core Viewpoint - Ying Tong Holdings (06883) reported a mixed performance in its interim results, with a slight decline in total revenue but an increase in net profit, indicating resilience in a challenging market environment [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the period ending September was approximately 1.028 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 3.4% [1] - Net profit reached 133 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 15.3% [1] - The company plans to declare an interim dividend of 4.6 HK cents per share and a special dividend of 3.4 HK cents per share [1] Market Position and Outlook - Ying Tong Holdings is recognized as a leading high-end perfume brand management company in China [1] - Huatai Securities has issued a report suggesting that the company is likely to benefit from the recovery in high-end consumption and the increasing penetration rate of perfumes and fragrances, which will drive demand growth [1] - On the supply side, the company is expanding its multi-brand strategy across various channels, which allows for broad product coverage [1] - There remains potential for growth in markets below first-tier cities [1] - The company plans to continue expanding its brand matrix and strengthen its leading position, with a focus on self-operated retail stores and proprietary brands, which are expected to create new revenue and profit growth points [1]

Core Viewpoint - Ying Tong Holdings (06883) reported a mixed performance in its interim results, with a slight decline in total revenue but an increase in net profit, indicating resilience in a recovering high-end consumer market [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the period ending September was approximately 1.028 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 3.4% [1] - Net profit reached 133 million RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 15.3% [1] - The company plans to declare an interim dividend of 4.6 HK cents per share and a special dividend of 3.4 HK cents per share [1] Market Position and Outlook - Ying Tong Holdings is recognized as a leading high-end perfume brand management company in China [1] - Huatai Securities forecasts that the company will benefit from the recovery in high-end consumption and the increasing penetration of perfumes and fragrances, leading to demand growth [1] - The company is expanding its multi-brand strategy across various channels, with significant growth potential in markets below first-tier cities [1] - Future plans include expanding the brand matrix and focusing on self-operated retail stores and proprietary brands, which are expected to create new revenue and profit growth points [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Duty Free Group (601888) is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the recovery of high-end consumption and the long-term growth potential of Hainan's offshore duty-free market, especially with the optimization of policies and the expansion of retail networks [2][3][4] - The sales of offshore duty-free products in Hainan have seen rapid growth, with a 28.52% year-on-year increase in sales amounting to 1.325 billion yuan from November 1 to November 17 [3] - High-end consumption is showing signs of recovery, supported by strong performance in the gaming sector and luxury brands in the Asia-Pacific region [4] - The Sanya International Duty-Free City Phase III is progressing as planned, with the first phase expected to be completed by August 2026, enhancing the commercial landscape in Hainan [5] - The report has adjusted the revenue forecasts for the company, expecting revenues of 55.468 billion, 61.242 billion, and 70.777 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.114 billion, 5.091 billion, and 6.150 billion yuan [6] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The company held an investor open day in Sanya, showcasing its retail network and business operations, indicating a positive outlook for profit growth due to high-end consumption recovery and policy optimization in Hainan [2] Analysis and Judgment - The report notes significant improvements in the offshore duty-free shopping policies, which have contributed to increased sales and consumer engagement [3] - High-end consumption is rebounding, with notable growth in luxury brand sales and positive trends in the gaming sector, indicating a favorable market environment [4] Investment Recommendations - The report has revised its earnings forecasts upward, reflecting the strong performance in Hainan's duty-free sales and the anticipated growth in high-end consumption [6]