参会密码： 838385 02 主 题：新能源龙头的新机会系列之3 时间： 11月19日（周三）15 : 30 主讲：刘强 院长助理&电新首席分析师 参会密码： 413833 03 主 题：人形机器人的爆款时刻 时间： 11月19日（周三）19 : 30 主讲：刘虹辰 汽车首席分析师 参会密码： 357025 01 主题：行业配置模型回顾与更新系列（十五） 时间：11月18日（周二）21:30 主讲：刘晓锋 金工首席分析师 识别二维码立即参; 04 主题： 工程机械近况更新及展望 时间： 11月20日（周四）15 : 00 主讲： 张凤琳 机械分析师 参会密码： 175397 05 主题：高端消费有所复苏，挖掘低位改善品种 时间： 11月20日（周四）15 : 00 主讲： 郭梦婕 食饮首席分析师 参会密码：041024 人形机器人的爆款时刻 会议号码: +86-4001888938 (中国大陆) +86-01053827720 (全球) +886-277083288 (中国台湾) +852-51089680 (中国香港) 参会密码: 838385 新能源龙头的新机会 11 . 19 疊 / 15 : 30 ...

菜百股份 20251113 摘要 饰品市场逐步复苏，四季度受金价上涨影响，饰品金增幅较弱，整体消 费旺季或不及来年一季度，需关注市场和金价变化，对股票交易策略有 影响。 黄金税改对菜百股份影响有限，首饰金提价消费者接受度高，投资金业 务上游顺畅，下游销售调整小，回收业务稳定，代理回购模式未变动价 格。 税改后金条销售经历两波波动，消费者担忧和金价上涨导致投资需求增 加，但公司上游和直营销售影响小，电商调整，总体影响不大。 2025 年春节较晚或延迟消费至明年一季度，公司已备货贺岁产品和新 品，金价波动对投资类产品占比影响营收，需关注。 祥云小镇门店经营业绩持续提升，效益优于营收排名，得益于优质客群 和饰品占比高，长期处于爬坡期，盈利能力持续提升。 二季度毛利率较低因金价上涨导致投资类产品占比增加，拉低整体毛利 率，ROE 指标更能反映公司经营状况，需关注。 公司全国扩张计划谨慎，税改限制加盟模式，优先加密北京市场，直营 深耕其他区域，具体节奏待十五五规划确定，北京区域收入将在年报披 露。 Q&A 请介绍一下菜百股份在 2025 年第三季度的市场表现及未来预期。 2025 年第三季度，饰品市场表现良好。消费者对 ...

Company Overview - Ying Tong Holdings is a leading high-end perfume brand management company in China, providing distribution and market deployment services for 73 external brands as of FY25 [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of high-end consumption and the increasing penetration rate of perfumes and fragrances [1][2] - Ying Tong's brand matrix is continuously expanding, with plans to enhance self-operated retail stores and proprietary brands, which are anticipated to create new revenue and profit growth points [1][3] Industry Insights - The Chinese perfume market is projected to reach 26.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 15.1% from 2019 to 2024, significantly higher than the global expected growth rate of 3.5% during the same period [2] - Currently, over 50% of the domestic perfume market is dominated by overseas luxury brands, indicating a substantial opportunity for domestic brands to increase their market share [2] - The demand for perfumes in China has considerable room for growth compared to Europe and the United States, particularly in the extension from perfumes to fragrances, which could enhance market education and expand the "olfactory economy" [2] Competitive Advantages - Ying Tong has established a rich brand matrix ranging from affordable to luxury, covering various categories including skincare, home fragrances, and personal care [2] - The company maintains stable long-term relationships with its top two suppliers, EuroItalia and Yite, which accounted for 59.4% of total procurement in FY25 [2] - Ying Tong has a comprehensive channel layout with 8,302 offline sales points in China as of FY25, alongside steady growth in online channels [2] Growth Opportunities - The company is launching self-operated retail stores, such as the multi-brand perfume and fragrance collection store "Shi Fen Qi He," to enhance customer experience and increase sales [3] - Ying Tong is actively developing its proprietary brand, Santa Monica, which is expanding into eyewear, perfumes, and fragrances, with a projected CAGR of 41% for brand revenue from FY24 to FY25 [3] - The company is also exploring external acquisitions to diversify its brand matrix and deepen its channel layout [3] Market Positioning - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of the brand management model; however, historical analysis of leading overseas perfume management companies suggests that local distributors are essential for rapid market coverage and scale operations [3] - Ying Tong's operational experience and channel resources provide a unique advantage for sustainable development in the domestic market [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 261 million yuan, 327 million yuan, and 412 million yuan for FY26E, FY27E, and FY28E, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.19 yuan, 0.24 yuan, and 0.30 yuan [4] - A target price of 2.86 HKD is set, corresponding to a 14X FY26E PE, reflecting the company's growth potential and market positioning [4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The high-end beauty market in mainland China is showing signs of recovery, with several foreign beauty brands such as La Perla, L'Oréal, and Estée Lauder reporting performance growth, reversing previous declines. This recovery is primarily driven by high-end consumer demand rather than currency fluctuations [1][2][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Market Recovery**: LVMH achieved mid-single-digit growth in mainland China for the first time in the third quarter, exceeding market expectations. La Perla reported double-digit growth, a performance not seen in years [2][3]. - **Long-term Trends**: Despite short-term uncertainties, companies like Shiseido and L'Oréal expect the trend of high-end beauty market recovery to continue. Shiseido has adjusted its business metrics to reflect double-digit growth when combining travel retail and domestic sales [1][4]. - **Consumer Demand**: The demand for beauty and health remains strong, with companies like L'Oréal and Puig seeing significant performance in medical-grade skincare and fragrance categories [1][5][6]. - **E-commerce Growth**: Online channels are crucial for sales growth, with L'Oréal's e-commerce channel in China experiencing double-digit growth. Offline sales in high-end malls are also showing signs of recovery [8]. Additional Important Points - **Promotional Strategies**: During the recent Double Eleven shopping festival, foreign brands like Lancôme and Helena Rubinstein achieved significant online growth, primarily through discount strategies, which impacted profit margins [9]. - **Local Brand Advantage**: Chinese local brands have advantages in supply chain responsiveness and understanding rapidly changing consumer demands. This positions them well for long-term market share growth [13][15]. - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment in 2024 is low, but the beauty sector shows resilience. Companies like L'Oréal have begun to recover after experiencing negative growth in previous quarters [5][11]. - **Competitive Landscape**: The competition between foreign and local brands is characterized by foreign brands leveraging online discounts while local brands focus on supply chain agility and consumer responsiveness. This dynamic is expected to continue without significantly hindering local brands' growth [15]. Conclusion - The high-end beauty market in China is on a recovery path, driven by strong consumer demand and effective sales strategies across various channels. While the overall market sentiment remains cautious, the resilience of the beauty sector and the competitive advantages of local brands suggest a promising outlook for future growth.