Investment Rating - The report provides a "Neutral" rating for BP and Eni, while it assigns a "Buy" rating to Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, TotalEnergies, GALP, OMV, and Cenovus Energy, indicating a positive outlook for these companies [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the global oil and gas sector is expected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.5% from 2024 to 2027, driven by increasing demand and recovering prices [10]. - The Brent front month price is projected to stabilize around $65.99 per barrel in 2025, while WTI is expected to be at $62.13 per barrel, reflecting a recovery from previous lows [7]. - Refining margins are anticipated to fluctuate, with European composite margins expected to average around $5.00 per barrel in 2025, indicating a challenging environment for refiners [7]. Summary by Sections Company Ratings and Projections - BP: Current price at 393.0, target price 400, with a 2% upside and a Neutral rating [10] - Chevron: Current price at 148.19, target price 177, with a 19% upside and a Buy rating [10] - ExxonMobil: Current price at 113.19, target price 130, with a 15% upside and a Buy rating [10] - Shell: Current price at 2,698, target price 2,900, with a 7% upside and a Buy rating [10] - TotalEnergies: Current price at 54.90, target price 60.0, with a 9% upside and a Buy rating [10] - Eni: Current price at 14.26, target price 13.0, with a -9% downside and a Neutral rating [10] - Cenovus Energy: Current price at 14.64, target price 25, with a 71% upside and a Buy rating [10] Market Assumptions - The report outlines macro assumptions for commodity prices, with Brent and WTI prices expected to stabilize in 2025 [7]. - The report also discusses refining margins, indicating a challenging environment for refiners with European margins projected at $5.00 per barrel [7]. Performance Metrics - The report includes performance metrics such as EV/DACF, FCF yield, and P/E ratios for major oil companies, providing a comprehensive view of their financial health and market positioning [10].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the China property sector, but it indicates a continued pessimistic outlook for housing prices and suggests the need for government intervention to stimulate the market [4]. Core Insights - The latest China Housing survey shows a subdued intention to buy property, with 48% of respondents indicating no intention to purchase, up from 36% in September 2024 [7]. - There is a divergence in sentiment among cities, with stable purchase intentions in tier 1 cities (32% intention to buy) compared to declines in tier 2 (20%) and tier 3 cities (19%) [16]. - The survey indicates that 42% of respondents expect further declines in housing prices over the next 12 months, with 47% of homeowners reporting paper losses, particularly in tier 2 and 3 cities [4][9]. Summary by Sections Housing Market Sentiment - The intention to buy property has decreased, with a notable increase in respondents who do not plan to purchase [7]. - In tier 1 cities, purchase intentions have increased slightly, while tier 2 and 3 cities have seen declines [16]. Factors Influencing Purchase Confidence - The top three factors boosting household confidence to buy properties are job promotions/salary increments, lower mortgage rates, and lower down-payment requirements [3][23]. - The report suggests that interest rate cuts may be the most effective measure to improve confidence, with expectations of a 20-30 basis point cut for the remainder of 2025 [3]. Price Expectations and Market Dynamics - The survey indicates a continued pessimistic outlook for housing prices, with 42% of respondents anticipating further declines [4]. - Secondary listings across 50 cities have increased by 7.1% year-over-year, indicating a potential downward trend in property prices [29]. Government Intervention - The report highlights the need for government intervention through pro-growth policies, mortgage rate cuts, and financing support to stimulate the market [4]. - Project completion is identified as a critical priority for the government to restore confidence in new home sales [3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Tariff uncertainty is significantly influencing the economic outlook, with a notable impact on inflation and fiscal policy [4][10][18] - The tariffs imposed are expected to show a clearer effect on core inflation data starting from July 2024, with projected increases in inflation rates across various countries [10][16] - The net effect of tariffs is anticipated to lift the Federal Funds rate, indicating a tightening of monetary policy [27][29] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The report outlines various tariffs imposed on sectors such as steel, aluminum, autos, and auto parts, detailing their base rates and exemptions [8] - The first-round impact of tariffs on US core PCE prices is estimated at 1.48%, with specific contributions from different tariff categories [16] Inflation Projections - Inflation rates are projected to rise, with the US experiencing a significant increase from 2.2% in January 2025 to 7.0% in April 2025, reflecting the impact of tariffs [10][29] - Core PCE inflation is expected to reach 3.3% in 2025, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [29] Fiscal Policy - US fiscal policy is described as net contractionary due to the impact of tariffs, with significant increases in the deficit projected from 2025 to 2034 [18][23] - The report highlights the expected fiscal deficits in the Eurozone, which are less than half of those in the US, suggesting a different fiscal landscape [76] Economic Growth - The report anticipates a modest growth in real GDP, with projections of 1.0% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, reflecting the broader economic conditions influenced by tariffs [29] - Unemployment rates are expected to rise slightly, indicating potential labor market challenges [29] Market Sentiment - There is a noted shift in capital flows from the US to Europe, driven by changing investor sentiment and economic conditions [97][99] - Despite high policy uncertainty, European confidence indicators have not deteriorated as significantly as those in the US, suggesting a relative resilience in the Eurozone [35][70]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating on Titan due to demand uncertainty in FY26E caused by elevated gold prices and rich valuation [5][41]. Core Insights - UBS's Basic Materials team forecasts gold prices to rise to US$3,500 in 2026, driven by tariff uncertainty, weak growth, high inflation, and geopolitical risks [2][9]. - India's gold demand is expected to moderate to approximately 725 tonnes in FY26, a 7% year-on-year decline, before recovering to 800 tonnes in FY27 as household consumption stabilizes [4][23]. - Indian households hold the largest stock of gold globally, estimated at 25,000 tonnes, valued at around US$2.4 trillion, which is 56% of FY26 nominal GDP [3][13]. Summary by Sections Gold Price Forecast - Gold prices are projected to increase significantly, with annual averages expected to reach US$3,500 in 2026, reflecting a 23% increase from previous estimates [12]. Consumer Demand for Gold - Consumer demand for gold in India is anticipated to soften in FY26, particularly in jewellery, which constitutes 70% of total demand, expected to decline by 5-10% year-on-year [4][23]. - Retail investment demand remains strong, with a notable increase in gold bars and coins, driven by gold's performance as a safe-haven asset [20]. Economic Context - India's net gold imports are projected to remain high at US$55 billion to US$60 billion in FY26/27, accounting for 1.2% of GDP, despite a manageable current account deficit [40]. - The report highlights that the upcoming pay boost of approximately US$55 billion could support household consumption and stabilize gold demand [39][23]. Gold Mobilization Efforts - Policy initiatives aimed at mobilizing gold for productive uses have seen limited success, with households primarily using gold as collateral for loans [42][45]. - The Gold Monetization Scheme and Sovereign Gold Bonds have not achieved significant participation, leading to a discontinuation of some programs [44][45]. Company-Specific Insights - Titan is expected to pursue aggressive network expansion to capture market share as the market transitions from unorganised to organised [5][41]. - The report notes that while Titan's long-term proposition is favorable, the current demand uncertainty warrants a Neutral rating [5][41].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies within it Core Insights - The FOMC left rates unchanged but revised projections for GDP growth and inflation, indicating a more comfortable stance on inflation than previously anticipated [2][3] - The median projected GDP growth was marked down for 2025 and 2026, with a return to trend growth expected in 2027 [3] - Unemployment rates are projected to remain at 4.5% for 2025 and 2026, dipping slightly to 4.4% in 2027 [2][8] - Core PCE inflation is expected to decrease from 3.1% in 2025 to 2.1% in 2027, but neither headline nor core inflation is projected to return to target levels [2][8] Summary by Sections Economic Projections - Change in real GDP is projected at 1.4% for 2025, 1.6% for 2026, and 1.8% for 2027, with long-run growth also at 1.8% [8] - Unemployment rate projections are 4.5% for 2025 and 2026, and 4.4% for 2027, with a long-run projection of 4.2% [8] - PCE inflation is projected at 3.0% for 2025, 2.4% for 2026, and 2.1% for 2027, with a long-run projection of 2.0% [8] - Core PCE inflation is projected at 3.1% for 2025, 2.4% for 2026, and 2.1% for 2027 [8] - Federal funds rate projections are 3.9% for 2025, 3.6% for 2026, and 3.4% for 2027, with a long-run projection of 3.0% [8]

Investment Rating - UBS maintains a bearish outlook on the dollar, forecasting significant further weakness by year-end, with EUR/USD expected to reach 1.23 and JPY/USD at 130 [2][17]. Core Insights - The report identifies both cyclical and structural reasons for the continued weakness of the dollar, including high US net foreign debt, over-ownership of the dollar in global reserves, and potential policy actions that could further devalue the dollar [4][21][33]. - A weaker dollar is generally seen as positive for global equities, easing financial conditions and leading to earnings upgrades [5][74]. Summary by Sections Why Should the Dollar Continue to Weaken? - The dollar is expected to remain in a bear market due to long-term cycles and structural issues, including US net foreign debt nearing 90% of GDP and significant unhedged dollar positions held by foreign investors [4][21][23][33]. Tactical Factors Pointing to a Weaker Dollar - UBS forecasts US GDP growth to slow from 1.7% YoY in Q2 to 0.9% YoY in Q4, with expectations of four rate cuts by year-end, which contrasts with market expectations of only two [3][42][46]. Investment Implications - A weaker dollar is projected to positively impact global equities, with a 10% decline in the dollar potentially adding approximately 2% to MSCI AC EPS growth [5][79]. - Emerging markets are expected to be the clear winners from a weaker dollar, with significant relative performance improvements [6][83][90]. Regional Insights - Emerging markets and the Eurozone are expected to outperform in unhedged terms when the dollar weakens, while the US is likely to underperform [6][84][90]. - In local currency terms, Japan and the UK are projected to be the worst performers, while emerging markets are anticipated to be the best [84][90]. Sector and Stock Recommendations - In Europe and the UK, sectors such as retailing and budget airlines are expected to benefit from a stronger Euro, while pharma is seen as an underperformer [12]. - In the US, sectors like software, telecoms, and household products are expected to perform well if the dollar weakens [14]. Emerging Market Opportunities - Specific companies in emerging markets, such as Cathay and CTBC, are rated as buys and are expected to benefit significantly from a weaker dollar [13][121].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several A-share stocks, including PetroChina, Yangtze Power, and NAURA Technology, among others, indicating a positive outlook for these companies [5]. Core Insights - The report anticipates a 6% year-over-year growth in CSI 300 A-share EPS for 2025, driven by a low base effect and potential policy easing, despite deflationary pressures limiting upward revisions [2][27]. - A-share valuations are expected to remain range-bound in the near term due to uncertainties surrounding US-China trade relations, but medium-term catalysts could arise from stronger policy easing and structural reforms [2][40]. - The "national team" (Central Huijin) has played a significant role in stabilizing the A-share market, particularly during periods of market correction, with substantial investments in CSI 300 ETFs [3][60]. Fund Flows and Market Styles - The report identifies five types of fund flows impacting market styles amid macro uncertainties, including significant inflows from the "national team," medium/long-term investors favoring high-dividend stocks, and retail investors driving small-cap outperformance [3][60]. - The report notes that high-dividend stocks have attracted long-term investors, particularly insurers, as they seek to mitigate risks associated with falling risk-free rates [65][66]. Sector Preferences and Investment Themes - The report outlines sector preferences based on different macro scenarios, suggesting that export-oriented sectors may benefit from trade friction de-escalation, while defensive sectors could be favored in adverse conditions [4]. - It highlights that consumption and property sectors may see the most benefit from stronger policy stimulus, while AI and services sectors could attract inflows under modest easing conditions [4]. Top A-share Picks - The report lists top A-share picks within UBS-S coverage, including PetroChina, Yangtze Power, and NAURA Technology, with respective price targets and expected upside percentages [5].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for Chevron, ExxonMobil, Shell, TotalEnergies, GALP, OMV, and Cenovus Energy, while BP and Eni are rated as "Neutral" [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for major oil companies, driven by expected increases in free cash flow and production growth rates. The average expected production growth for 2025-2027 is projected at 7% for the global sector [10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of refining margins, with European composite margins expected to stabilize around 5.00 in 2025, while US composite margins are projected to be around 15.67 [7][10]. - The macroeconomic assumptions indicate a gradual recovery in commodity prices, with Brent crude oil expected to average $65.99 per barrel in 2025, reflecting a slight increase from previous years [7]. Summary by Relevant Sections Company Ratings - BP: Current price at 380.7, target price 400, with a 5% upside, rated as Neutral (CBE) [10]. - Chevron: Current price at 144.97, target price 177, with a 22% upside, rated as Buy (CBE) [10]. - ExxonMobil: Current price at 109.73, target price 130, with an 18% upside, rated as Buy (CBE) [10]. - Shell: Current price at 2,615, target price 2,900, with an 11% upside, rated as Buy (CBE) [10]. - TotalEnergies: Current price at 54.74, target price 60, with a 10% upside, rated as Buy (CBE) [10]. - Eni: Current price at 13.86, target price 13.0, with a -6% downside, rated as Neutral (CBE) [10]. - Cenovus Energy: Current price at 14.42, target price 25, with a 73% upside, rated as Buy [10]. Financial Metrics - The report provides various financial metrics for the companies, including EV/DACF, FCF Yield, and P/E ratios, indicating strong financial health and potential for growth in the coming years [10]. - The average expected free cash flow yield for the sector is projected at 7.4% for 2025, reflecting robust cash generation capabilities [10]. Market Trends - The report notes a trend towards increased investment in renewable energy sources among major oil companies, which may impact their long-term strategies and market positioning [10]. - The refining sector is expected to see improvements in margins, particularly in the US and Europe, as demand recovers post-pandemic [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a 12-month target price of Rmb175.00, while the stock price as of June 12, 2025, was Rmb111.13 [4][20]. Core Insights - The company, Keda Li, is focusing on the humanoid robotics sector by collaborating with a humanoid robot industry chain company to establish a joint venture for dexterous hands, which is expected to inject new growth momentum into the company [2][3]. - The company's current product layout in humanoid robotics includes harmonic reducers, joint components, and dexterous hands, indicating a strategic move towards innovation in this emerging field [3]. Financial Summary - The projected revenue growth from Rmb8.65 billion in 2022 to Rmb27.12 billion by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17.5% [6]. - The expected net profit is projected to increase from Rmb901 million in 2022 to Rmb3.47 billion by 2029, indicating strong profitability growth [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from Rmb3.84 in 2022 to Rmb12.79 by 2029, showcasing significant growth potential [6]. Valuation Metrics - The company is expected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 16.4x in 2025, decreasing to 8.7x by 2029, suggesting an attractive valuation as earnings grow [6]. - The projected return on invested capital (ROIC) is expected to improve from 18.9% in 2025 to 24.6% by 2029, indicating efficient capital utilization [6]. Market Outlook - The forecasted stock price increase of 57.5% and a dividend yield of 2.2% contribute to an overall expected return of 59.7%, significantly above the market return assumption of 6.7% [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an overweight (OW) rating on AA/A and rising-star credits while underweighting (UW) single-B credits [9]. Core Insights - Emerging Market (EM) credit is facing conflicting macroeconomic factors, with weakening fiscal dynamics and expensive valuations, while US portfolio reallocations may provide some support [2]. - The report anticipates a widening of EM credit spreads by 40-50 basis points (bps) by year-end, with total returns expected to be around 3%-4% due to gains from U.S. Treasuries and carry [3]. - The gap between nominal GDP growth and effective interest rates in EM is expected to narrow significantly, which may slow credit rating improvements [4][31]. - Oil prices present a specific risk to EM, with expectations of Brent averaging $62 per barrel in the second half of 2025, potentially leading to underperformance in EM if prices fall below $60 [5][7]. - The relative size of the EM credit market compared to the U.S. suggests that even small reallocations could have a significant impact on EM debt flows [8][54]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Dynamics - The gap between nominal GDP growth and effective interest rates is projected to decrease to 2.7 percentage points (ppt) in 2025/26 from 14.6 ppt in 2021/22, indicating a normalization of fiscal conditions [4][31]. - Countries with significant primary balance deficits, such as Bahrain, Brazil, and Romania, are highlighted as more exposed to these fiscal dynamics [4]. Oil Price Impact - The report notes that a recent rally in oil prices has benefited EM credit, but a decline in prices could lead to a direct impact of 8-21 bps on an index level [5][49]. - The weight of oil-related credits in the EMBI index is expected to decrease, which may mitigate some risks associated with falling oil prices [7][42]. U.S. Portfolio Flows - U.S. investors' allocation to EM government bonds is currently below historical averages, suggesting potential inflows of $85 billion to $90 billion if allocations return to previous levels [8][56]. - Specific countries like Argentina and Mexico are identified as having low allocations compared to historical data, indicating opportunities for increased investment [8][64]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on AA/A rated credits with low issuance pressures and fiscally strong stories, while being cautious with single-B rated credits due to their exposure to oil price fluctuations [9].