ab 16 May 2025 Global Research First Read Alibaba Group 4QFY25 slight miss; thesis unchanged despite short-term margin fluctuation 4QFY25 slight missed Revenue +7% YoY, and adj. EBITA +36% YoY. Both missed by 1-2% (quick take). Key focuses 1) Taobao Tmall (TTG) outlook (mixed): Topline (+ve): CMR accelerated to +12% YoY (Dec Q's +9%), beat by 3%. For Mar Q, the take rate improvement (0.6% software service fee, and improving sitewide promotion tool adoption) and GMV mix shift to higher-commissioned Tmall (TT ...

ab Global Research First Read JD.com 1Q25 results quick take: solid beat, but focus on mgmt outlook & food delivery investment Q: How did the results compare vs expectations? A: Solid beat all across. Revenue beat at Rmb301bn, +16% YoY. Adj. OP +31% (beat 11%), and adj. NP +43% YoY (beat 20%) grew stronger on share of asso profits. Positive highlights: 1) Accelerating momentum in electronics and home appliances growth; 2) accelerating general merchandise (GM) growth at +15% (benefiting from deepened SKU & n ...

ab Global Research owered by UBS Evidence Lab YES P 13 May 2025 U.S. Transportation Weekly Tracker: Late May Import Volume UBS Weekly Import Tracker provides early read on domestic freight demand This note uses UBS Evidence Lab's Global Maritime Trade Monitor (> Access Dataset) to track weekly container imports into the United States. Using real-time data on ship location, capacity, and draft depth, UBS Evidence Lab calculates a modified deadweight tonnage (MDWT) metric to approximate the amount of containe ...

Global Research ab 12 May 2025 Semiconductors Three things we learnt at a major power semiconductor conference We attended PCIM in Nuremberg We spent two days in Nuremberg at PCIM '25 - a major power electronics trade show - meeting with a variety of companies including STM, Rohm, Semikron, Power Integrations, Starpower, Basic Semiconductor, Navitas, Monolithic Power Systems, United Nova and Innoscience. We highlight our key takeaways: 1) The competitive threat from China is even more visible: many of the c ...

ab 12 May 2025 Global Research Infineon Technologies AG Further signs an upcycle is incoming. Buy. Conservative guide with idiosyncratic drivers still largely intact Infineon has conservatively baked in some tariff impact into its new FY'25 guide, which we think increases margin for error. It also raises the chance of upgrades through the year when the cycle turns, of which we see initial signs, with revenues up y-o-y for the first time in two years in FQ325. With the evidence of the cycle turning along wit ...

ab 9 May 2025 Global Research China Equity Strategy 1Q25 investor positioning update - investors turned less underweight overall Divergent views among Asia/Global/EM mandated funds International investors have reduced their China underweight position from -1.9% to - 1.5% in 1Q25 likely cheered by the DeepSeek launch. Interestingly, Asia-mandated funds turned overweight (from underweight previously) and global funds reduced their underweight position, while EM funds have maintained their underweight position ...

Historically equity market volatility in China rose mostly due to external shocks (e.g. COVID in 2020 and ADR delisting in 2022) and has typically seen negative returns with MSCI China down 6% during these periods of rising volatility (see Figure 1). That said, the market typically overshot in times of uncertainty and as volatilities declined in the ensuing period, the index actually delivered a positive return of 5% on average. Using the option implied volatility in the HSI as a proxy, we found that invest ...

ab 30 April 2025 Global Research First Read China Property Top 100 developers' sales in April weaken by 9% YoY The first month of contract sales after trade tariff tensions Despite the trade tariff tension, Top 100 developers' contract sales dropped by 9% YoY in April 2025, narrowed from -12% YoY in March 2025, due to a lower base. On a sequential basis, top 100 developers' contract sales decreased by 10% MoM, worse than -5% MoM on average from 2020 to 2024 (see Figure 2Top 10devloprs' cntales dcraby5% Moin ...

The US raised "reciprocal tariffs" on China to 125% on April 9, but announced a 90-day pause on such tariffs on other economies, replacing it with a broad 10% tariff hike. The "reciprocal tariffs" is in addition to the 20% tariff hikes (related to fentanyl control) that have already been implemented by the Trump administration since early February this year, and on top of the tariffs added during the first Trump administration and Biden era. China has retaliated with similar tariff hikes on US goods since t ...

ab 15 April 2025 Global Research China Economic Perspectives China Economic Outlook: Bracing For More Tariffs More US tariffs on China and China retaliated Electronics imports are excluded from "reciprocal tariffs" for now On April 11, US CBP posted a notice that exempted smartphones, computers, semiconductors and other electronics goods from the US reciprocal tariffs, which we think also includes those related imports from China. These latest exemptions added an estimated $64 billion of US imports from Chi ...