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2024年第一季度盈利稳定增长;高质量发展持续推进
国泰君安证券· 2024-04-26 05:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Telecom (00728 HK) with a target price of HKD 5.00, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.7x/11.7x/10.8x for the years 2024-2026 [1]. Core Insights - China Telecom's service revenue and net profit for Q1 2024 were RMB 124.347 billion (up 5.0% year-on-year) and RMB 8.597 billion (up 7.7% year-on-year), respectively, aligning with market expectations [1]. - The company added 3.88 million mobile users and 2.06 million broadband users in Q1 2024, with mobile ARPU and broadband mixed ARPU increasing by 0.9% and 2.1% year-on-year, respectively [1]. - The report highlights a 10.6% year-on-year growth in industrial digitalization revenue due to ongoing investments in digitalization [1]. - Future dividends are expected to grow steadily, with a proposed increase in the payout ratio to over 75% over the next three years, leading to projected dividend yields of 6.5%, 7.2%, and 8.0% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 service revenue: RMB 124.347 billion (5.0% YoY growth) [1] - Q1 2024 net profit: RMB 8.597 billion (7.7% YoY growth) [1] - New mobile users: 3.88 million; new broadband users: 2.06 million [1] - Mobile ARPU growth: 0.9% YoY; broadband mixed ARPU growth: 2.1% YoY [1] Dividend Outlook - Proposed increase in payout ratio to over 75% starting in 2024 [1] - Projected dividend yields: 6.5% (2024), 7.2% (2025), 8.0% (2026) [1]
2024年第一季度业绩超预期,降本增效持续推进
国泰君安证券· 2024-04-24 09:02
Investment Rating - Maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 78.00, corresponding to 10.4x/9.9x/9.6x P/E for 2024-2026 and dividend yields of 7.0%/7.5%/8.0% [1] Core Views - China Mobile's Q1 2024 performance exceeded expectations, driven by cost control and efficiency improvements, which are expected to enhance profitability and support higher-than-expected dividend payouts [1] - The company's high-growth and high-dividend characteristics are expected to persist, supported by sustained industry growth [1] - Despite slightly lower-than-expected Q1 2024 profit growth, full-year profit and dividend growth remain optimistic, with service revenue and net profit reaching RMB 219.3 billion (+4.5% YoY) and RMB 29.6 billion (+5.5% YoY), respectively [2] - Mobile and home broadband users increased by 4.63 million and 6.83 million, respectively, with stable ARPU expected to continue in 2024 [2] - The company plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to over 75% starting from 2024, with dividend growth expected to outpace profit growth [2] Cost Efficiency and Capital Expenditure - 5G network construction has reached a moderate scale, with future capital expenditure expected to slow down as 5G demand becomes more fragmented [3] - China Mobile's 5G network capital expenditure is projected to decrease by 21.6% YoY in 2024, with total capital expenditure down 4% YoY, leading to healthier cash flow and reduced depreciation pressure [3] - The company adjusted the depreciation period for 5G wireless and related transmission equipment from 7 to 10 years, reducing annual depreciation by approximately RMB 18 billion [3] Dividend and Shareholder Returns - Based on the closing price as of April 22, 2024, China Mobile's estimated dividend yields for 2024/2025/2026 are 7.8%, 8.3%, and 8.9%, respectively, supported by stable profit growth [3] - The company's high and stable dividend growth is expected to provide a strong margin of safety for its stock price [3] Industry Comparison - China Mobile's valuation metrics (P/E and dividend yield) are competitive compared to peers in Hong Kong, the US, Japan, South Korea, and Europe, with a 2024F P/E of 9.8x and a dividend yield of 7.4% [7][10] - The company's capital expenditure is shifting towards computing power, with a focus on reducing costs and improving efficiency [7]
政策刺激下的内需复苏,“收集”
国泰君安证券· 2024-04-24 07:02
h 股 c r 票 a e s e R 研 y [Table_Title] Muyang Zhao 赵沐阳 究 tiu Company Report: Haitian International (01882 HK) 中文版 q (852) 25095375 E 公司报告: 海天国际 (01882 HK) Chinese version muyang.zhao@gtjas.com.hk 23 April 2024 政[Ta策ble刺_Su激mm下ar的y] 内需复苏,“收集” tr  我们维持“收集”评级,并上调目标价上调26.65港元。预计中国将通过扶持 公 o p 政策加大对制造业的支持力度。我们维持海天国际(“公司”)2024-2026年 [RTaabtlien_gR:a nk] Accumulate 司 e R y 股东净利润预测分别为人民币27.61亿元/人民币29.84亿元/人民币32.22 Maintained 报 n a 亿元。我们预计公司 2023 年/2024 年/2025 年的每股盈利分别为人民币 评级: 收集 (维持) p 告 m 1.730 元、人民币1.870元和人民币2.019 ...
2024年第一季度经营利润同比增30.8%至4.32亿港元,维持“买入”
国泰君安证券· 2024-04-24 06:32
股 h c r a 票 e s e 研 R y 究 Etiu q [ FT la ab sle h_T Nitl oe] t e: CSC Development (00830 HK) 中文版 Gary Wong 黄家玮 (852) 2509 2616 快讯: 中国建筑兴业 (00830 HK) Chinese version gary.wong@gtjas.com.hk 23 April 2024 2[T0ab2le4_年Sum第ma一ry]季度经营利润同比增30.8%至4.32亿港元,维持 “ 买 入” e 快 to N 讯 h  重申“买入”评级,目标价维持在3.10港元。我们维持中国建筑兴业(“公司”)2024/ 2025/ 2026年每股盈利 s a lF 预测分别为0.338港元/ 0.445港元/ 0.541港元。我们维持目标为3.10港元,相当于7.7倍/ 6.0倍/ 4.8倍2024/ 2025/ 2026年EV/EBITDA。  2024年第一季度新签合同同比增4.9%至36.97亿港元。1)2024年第一季度收入为20.31亿港元(+17.7%), 经营利润为4.32亿港元(+30. ...
2024财年第一季度盈利增长稳健;折旧期结束预计为股息增长提供空间,“买入”
国泰君安证券· 2024-04-23 13:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for China Tower (00788 HK) with a target price of HKD 1.20 [1]. Core Insights - China Tower recorded a robust performance in Q1 2024, with revenue of RMB 23.974 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.784 billion, up 11.1% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [1]. - The depreciation of a significant number of towers is expected to end in Q4 2025, which will enhance net profit. The report anticipates that the company will not reduce its dividend payout ratio, leading to a substantial increase in dividends in 2026 [2]. - The report highlights that the company's tower business revenue saw slight growth due to an increase in the number of tower sites and tenants, driven by strong indoor coverage demand and robust growth in the smart tower business [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 2024, China Tower's revenue was RMB 23.974 billion, a 3.3% increase year-on-year, while net profit was RMB 2.784 billion, reflecting an 11.1% year-on-year growth [1]. - The depreciation expense accounted for 52.2% of total revenue in 2023, indicating its significant impact on profitability [2]. Future Outlook - The depreciation of the acquired tower assets from 2015 will conclude in Q4 2025, providing a strong impetus for profit growth in 2026 [2]. - The report expects double-digit net profit growth for the company in 2024 due to effective cost control and increasing demand for services [1]. Dividend Expectations - The report anticipates a significant increase in dividends for 2026, as the company is expected to maintain its dividend payout ratio [1][2].
2024年第一季度盈利略低于预期,但预计全年将保持高增,维持“买入”评级
国泰君安证券· 2024-04-23 13:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Unicom with a target price of HKD 7.66, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 10.2x/9.3x/8.5x for the fiscal years 2024-2026 and dividend yields of 6.0%/7.1%/8.3% for the same periods [1][2]. Core Insights - The first quarter of 2024 saw earnings slightly below expectations, but the company is expected to maintain double-digit profit growth for the full year. Service revenue and net profit for Q1 2024 were RMB 89.043 billion (up 3.4% year-on-year) and RMB 5.613 billion (up 8.9% year-on-year), respectively. The slight miss in profit growth was attributed to a decrease in net income from joint ventures and other income, while operating profit increased by 22.3% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is expected to continue improving shareholder returns and maintain high dividend payouts, with a projected dividend yield of 6.2% for 2023 and expected yields of 7.6%, 9.0%, and 10.6% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, China Unicom's service revenue was RMB 89.043 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.4%, while net profit was RMB 5.613 billion, up 8.9% year-on-year. Operating profit showed a significant increase of 22.3% year-on-year [1][2]. Capital Expenditure and Efficiency - The company plans to reduce capital expenditure by 12% year-on-year to RMB 65 billion in 2024, which is expected to alleviate depreciation pressure. The depreciation and amortization expenses accounted for 23.7% of total operating expenses in 2023. Efforts to enhance operational efficiency are also underway, with good control over employee benefits and sales expenses [2]. Dividend Policy - The report anticipates that China Unicom will continue to enhance shareholder returns through increased dividends, with a projected payout ratio of approximately 60% for 2024, which is expected to rise in 2025 and 2026 [1][2].
高股息率可持续,维持“买入”
国泰君安证券· 2024-04-19 05:32
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The target price has been revised down to HK$2.85, corresponding to 3.8x/3.6x/3.7x P/E for 2024/2025/2026 [1][3]. - The company's net profit for 2023 decreased by 9.0% year-on-year to RMB 873 million, which was below expectations [1]. - Total revenue for 2023 was RMB 10.362 billion, a slight decline of 0.7% year-on-year, with design, surveying, and consulting revenue increasing by 9.1% to RMB 4.867 billion, while construction contracting revenue fell by 8.0% to RMB 5.495 billion [1][2]. - The company has maintained a dividend payout ratio of 27% over the past two years, resulting in a current dividend yield of 9.9% based on the current share price [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the gross profit margin was 18.2%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, while the expense ratio rose to 15.8%, up by 1.2 percentage points [1]. - The weighted ROE for 2023 was 12.3%, down by 2.5 percentage points, and the total debt ratio was 69.3%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points [1]. - The net operating cash flow for 2023 decreased significantly to RMB 329 million from RMB 1.149 billion in 2022 [2]. - New contracts signed in 2023 fell by 30% year-on-year to RMB 6.168 billion, with a notable decline in EPC contracts by 52.0% [2]. Future Earnings Forecast - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been adjusted downwards by 12.0% and 13.1% to RMB 0.683 and RMB 0.721, respectively, with a new forecast for 2026 set at RMB 0.704 [1][5]. - The projected total revenue for 2024 is RMB 10.33 billion, slightly down from 2023 [5].
期待2025年复苏,维持“买入”
国泰君安证券· 2024-04-19 05:32
Investment Rating - Maintained "Buy" rating with a revised target price of HK$2.90, equivalent to 10.8x/8.0x/5.8x 2024/2025/2026 EV/EBITDA [10][16] Core Views - 2023 revenue was RMB 2.201 billion, down 1.4% YoY, with PC component manufacturing revenue at RMB 1.913 billion, down 5.5% YoY [2] - 2023 gross margin improved to 24.3%, up 7.6 percentage points, while expense ratio decreased to 33.9%, down 4.4 percentage points [2] - 2023 net operating cash flow increased to RMB 580 million, up from RMB 423 million in 2022, with combined net operating and investment cash flow at RMB 476 million [21] - 2023 new contract value reached RMB 2.969 billion, up 25.3% YoY, driven by a 35.9% increase in PC component manufacturing contracts [11] Financial Performance - 2023 net loss narrowed to RMB 389 million from RMB 808 million in 2022, with basic EPS improving to RMB -0.815 from RMB -1.677 [29] - 2024/2025/2026 EPS forecasts revised to RMB -0.217/RMB 0.037/RMB 0.393, respectively [10] - 2023 accounts receivable decreased by 5.8% to RMB 2.628 billion, with impairment losses down 95.3% to RMB 4 million [21] Business Highlights - Digital EPC revenue surged 871.3% YoY to RMB 160 million in 2023, reflecting strong growth in digital construction solutions [2] - The company implemented over ten digital full-assembly projects, including Beijing University of Chinese Medicine and Changde Economic Development Zone [11] - Expanded international market presence with over 300 overseas client engagements and 40+ projects in design and contract stages, including successful deployments of customized "Magic Cube" building products in Saudi Arabia and Los Angeles [11] Industry and Market Performance - The stock price declined 52.9% over the past year, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 34.1 percentage points [3] - Average share price over the past year ranged between HK$2.3 and HK$2.7 [3] Future Outlook - Revenue is expected to grow to RMB 3.875 billion by 2026, with net profit projected to reach RMB 187 million [29] - The company continues to focus on integrating digital technology with its CPS+ intelligent management platform to enhance efficiency in smart construction solutions [11]
2024年盈利前景稳健,“买入”
国泰君安证券· 2024-04-19 05:32
股 票 研 究 [Table_Title] Peter Shao 邵俊樨 Company Report: China Power International (02380 HK) 中文版 (852) 2509 5464 公司报告: 中国电力 (02380 HK) Chinese version peter.shao@gtjas.com.hk 17 April 2024 2[T0ab2le4_年Sum盈ma利ry]前 景稳健,“买入” Chinese version 公  2023年盈利不及预期。中国电力(“公司”)公布2023年利润为人民币26.6亿 [RTaabtlien_gR:a nk] Buy 元,低于我们预期,主要是由于录得人民币6.5亿元的资产摊销以及水电部门亏 司 Maintained 损人民币8.26亿元所致,两者均高于我们预期。公司宣布2023年每股股息DPS 报 为人民币0.13元(2022年为人民币0.11元)。中国电力将2023年派息率提高 评级: 买入 (维持) 告 至61%(高于2022年的55%),每股股息为人民币0.13元(高于2022年的人 民币0.11元)。我们认为,这反映 ...
Strong FY24 Earnings Outlook, “Buy”
国泰君安证券· 2024-04-18 06:32
h 股 c r 票 a e s e R 研 y [Table_Title] Peter Shao 邵俊樨 究 tiu Company Report: China Power International (02380 HK) (852) 2509 5464 q E 公司报告: 中国电力 (02380 HK) peter.shao@gtjas.com.hk 17 April 2024 S[Ttarbolen_Sgu mFmYa2ry4] Earnings Outlook, "Buy"  2023 earnings missed. CPID (the "Company") reported 2023 earnings of 公 tr o RMB2,660 mn, missing our expectation, primarily due to asset amortisation of [RTaabtlien_gR:a nk] Buy p e RMB650 mn and loss of RMB 826 mn booked by the hydro segment, both Maintained 司 R 报 y ...