2024年 04月 30日 证券研究报告 | 产业周报 钢企利润好转刺激钢厂生产积极性， 铁水产量增加，铁矿石价格震荡走强 铁矿行业周度报告 钢铁 投资要点 投资评级：推荐（维持） 供应：本周（4.20-4.26）铁矿石发运量增加，到港量有所减少。由于台风天 气影响减弱海外发运整体增加，澳洲、巴西海外发运量季节性回增，澳巴两国 分析师：张锦 发运量均有增量。澳洲、巴西发货量分别为1706.1万吨、641.2万吨，环比分 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 别为4.32%、18.3%。然而到港方面本周有所减少，中国北方港口、中国26港 电话：021-20321304 到港量分别为1134.4万吨、1866.1万吨，环比分别为-1.38%、-17.35%。 邮箱：zhangjin@cnhbstock.com 库存：海外发运积极，港口库存维持累增趋势。根据钢联数据，本周（4.20-4.26） 进口铁矿石库存（45个港口总计）、进口铁矿石库存（247家钢铁企业）分别 销售服务电话： 为1.48亿吨、9380万吨，环比分别为1.37%、0.16%。海外发运积极，港口 021-20515355 库存维持累增 ...

2024年 04月 29日 证券研究报告 | 产业周报 库存持续走低，钢价震荡上行，螺纹 消费小幅改善 钢铁行业周度报告 钢铁 投资要点 投资评级：推荐（维持） 供应：本周高炉开工率回升，螺纹、线材、中厚板产量均有增量，热卷、冷 轧产量小幅回落。本周高炉开工率（样本数247家）79.73%，环比增加0.87 分析师：张锦 个百分点；日均铁水产量228.72万吨，环比增加1.1%。螺纹钢、线材、中厚 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 板、热轧板卷、冷轧板卷的周度产量分别为222.05万吨、87.41万吨、253.55 电话：021-20321304 万吨、315.6万吨、85.37万吨，环比分别为1.92%、8.06%、0.5%、-2.34%、 邮箱：zhangjin@cnhbstock.com -0.47%。整体反应钢铁供应持续释放，但近期多地暴雨或将对钢铁供应造成一 定的负面影响。 销售服务电话： 库存：本周库存整体走低，螺纹、线材下滑幅度最大。根据钢联数据，本周 021-20515355 螺纹钢、线材、中厚板、热轧板卷、冷轧板卷的总库存（社库+厂库）分别为 行业走势图（2024年4月29日 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel industry is experiencing a slight improvement in consumption, with inventory levels continuing to decline and steel prices showing a fluctuating upward trend [1][4] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Data Changes in the Steel Industry - The average daily pig iron output increased to 2.2872 million tons, up 1.1% week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 79.73%, an increase of 0.87 percentage points [4][10] - Weekly production figures for various steel products are as follows: rebar at 2.2205 million tons (+1.92%), wire rod at 874,100 tons (+8.06%), medium-thick plate at 2.5355 million tons (+0.5%), hot-rolled coil at 3.156 million tons (-2.34%), and cold-rolled coil at 853,700 tons (-0.47%) [4][10] 2. Weekly Data Trends in the Steel Industry - Total inventory for rebar, wire rod, medium-thick plate, hot-rolled coil, and cold-rolled coil decreased by 6.5%, 9.07%, 0.82%, 1.88%, and 0.66% respectively [4][11] - Apparent consumption of the five major materials totaled 9.5788 million tons, a decrease of 0.18% week-on-week, with rebar consumption increasing by 2.28% [4][11] 3. Price and Profitability Trends in the Steel Industry - The comprehensive steel price index rose to 106.78, an increase of 0.16% week-on-week, with rebar prices at 3,803.78 yuan/ton (+1.06%) [4][11] - The profitability rate for 247 steel companies increased to 50.65%, up 2.17 percentage points from the previous week [4][11] 4. Industry News and Company Dynamics - South Steel Co. reported a 5.73% decline in revenue for Q1 2024, but a 47.24% increase in net profit year-on-year [19] - Nucor Corporation reported Q1 2024 revenue of $8.14 billion, with a net profit of $845 million [19] - Ling Steel Co. produced 5.407 million tons of steel in 2023, a 6% increase year-on-year, despite a revenue decline [19]

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Recommended (Maintain) [2] Core Insights - The flexibility transformation of thermal power is essential for enhancing the adaptability of the power grid to the rapid development of renewable energy [2][34] - The transformation of thermal power is driven by national energy policies, aiming to shift coal power from a conventional main power source to a dual role of basic security and system regulation [2][42] - The demand for flexibility transformation in thermal power remains significant during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, with small units being more feasible than large units [2] Summary by Sections 1. New Power System Needs Flexibility Resources - The ability of the power grid to absorb renewable energy is determined by the system's balancing and regulation capacity [20] - Different power sources have varying peak regulation capabilities, impacting the integration of renewable energy [21][22] 2. Necessity of Thermal Power Flexibility Transformation - China's power structure, dominated by thermal power, necessitates that the main source of future flexibility comes from thermal power [34] - In 2023, thermal power installed capacity reached 1.39 billion kW, accounting for 45% of total installed capacity and 70% of total generation, but with a peak regulation capability of only around 50% [34] 3. Policy Support for Thermal Power Flexibility Transformation - Policies are enhancing the positive outlook for thermal power flexibility transformation, with a focus on improving the regulation capacity of coal power [42][44] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have emphasized the importance of enhancing grid peak regulation and storage capabilities [42]

投资要点 图表目录 2）避险属性：在发生地缘风险等重大风险事件，或长期不确定风险显著加大时，黄金避 险属性往往能推动其价格上涨。 电话：021-20321004 风险提示：美联储超预期连续加息。 策略周报 的增量主要来自于中东、土耳其、俄罗斯等受地缘风险扰动增加的国家和地区。 021-20515355 金价下跌，反而是配置良机？ 分析师：蔡梦苑 邮箱：caimengyuan@cnhbstock.com 由于黄金实物需求变化对金价的影响力提升，逐渐对传统分析框架中的下行 压力形成对冲。从实物需求的购买习惯来看，并非金价快速上涨的"助推器"， 但对"抗跌"的解释力较强，主要起到"稳定器"的作用。 研究助理：郝一凡 中长期来看，在全球不确定性增加、实物需求较强的背景下，金价仍有较高 的配置价值。根据实物需求的购买节奏来看，趁着金价下跌做定投或是当下更 适合的配置方式。 销售服务电话： 敬请参阅报告结尾处免责声明 华宝证券 1/8 内容目录 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|----------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Recommended" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - Global crude steel production decreased by 4.3% year-on-year in March 2024, with notable increases in production from Turkey and India [5][9] - The manufacturing PMI in developed economies shows signs of recovery, suggesting support for future steel demand, with expected growth in steel demand of 1.3% and 2.7% in 2024 and 2025 respectively [11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring changes in the global steel supply-demand structure and its impact on resource allocation within the industry [13] Summary by Sections Global Steel Production Trends - In March 2024, global crude steel production was 161.2 million tons, down 4.3% year-on-year, while overseas production was 72.92 million tons, up 2.45% [5][6] - The average daily crude steel production globally was 5.1997 million tons, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 1.31% [5] - Asian crude steel production saw a significant decline of 5.14%, with China, Japan, and South Korea experiencing substantial decreases [8][9] Country-Specific Production Insights - China produced 88.27 million tons of crude steel in March, down 7.8% year-on-year, while India saw an increase of 11.37% to 1.2709 million tons [9][10] - Turkey's crude steel production rose by 18% to 320,000 tons, indicating a positive trend in certain regions [10] Economic Indicators and Future Demand - The manufacturing PMI for major developed economies remains below the growth line, but there are signs of recovery since the fourth quarter of 2023 [11] - The World Steel Association forecasts a robust growth rate of 3.5% for global steel demand (excluding China) over the next two years, indicating resilience in overseas demand [12]

2024年 04月 23日 证券研究报告 | 产业月报 钢铁需求偏弱，储能需求偏好，关注钒供需结构再匹配 钒行业月度报告 有色金属 投资要点 投资评级：推荐（维持） 上游：3月钒钛粉价格回调，主要钢企高炉铁水产量增加，推动钒渣供给增加。 3月国内攀枝花和承德地区钒钛粉价格出现回调-2.76%和-16.21%，整体跟随铁矿 分析师：张锦 石价格变动。3月钒钛磁铁矿主要冶炼企业攀钢和河钢承钢的铁水产量分别环比上 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 升7.86%和32.51%，这对3月的钒渣供给增加形成支撑。4月以来高炉开工率持 电话：021-20321304 续回升，预计将带来钒渣供给持续释放。 邮箱：zhangjin@cnhbstock.com 中游：节后复工推动供给释放，下游需求偏弱，导致五氧化二钒、钒铁、钒氮合 金、偏钒酸铵价格出现不同程度下跌。节后复工推动供给释放，3月23家样本企 研究助理：张后来 业五氧化二钒产量10730吨，环比增加7.73%；钒铁、钒氮合金、偏钒酸铵产量 邮箱：zhanghoulai@cnhbstock.com 均有环比较大增长。但价格均出现不同程度回调，其中四川片状 ...

总结：系落实新"国九条"及"1+N"政策体系重要一环，引领资管行业服 务化改革高质量发展。《规定》系围绕新"国九条"的"1+N"的政策文件体系 的重要构成，是落实"稳步降低公募基金行业综合费率"部署的关键举措，规 范了公募基金、证券公司交易合作模式，改变金融机构"以规模为考核、以销 售换佣金"等卖方销售导向模式，进而改变券商财富管理内部考核、队伍管理 与管理架构的机制。针对公募行业交易佣金的规范约束，对其他银行理财、信 托产品等具有较强信号作用，资管行业迎来全新的服务化改革：金融机构真正 以投资者利益为重，提升投资者服务体验，抛弃"牌照意识"，拿起"能力意识" 的机构才能实现高质量发展。 敬请参阅报告结尾处免责声明 华宝证券 1/9 | --- | |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 1. 公募基金证券交易费用管理规定的正式稿领布… | | 2. 主要内容:四方面规范交易佣金费用,完善落实信被及追责机制. | | 2.1. 费率水平: 测算市场平均股票交易佣金 ...

2024年 04月 22日 证券研究报告 | 产业月报 镁产品需求市场回暖，陕西将打造镁合金千亿产业链 镁行业月度报告 有色金属 投资要点 投资评级：推荐（维持） 金属镁生产成本下行，市场开工恢复，镁锭价格趋稳：从原料端来看，3月 我国兰炭开工率44.55%，环比下降9.62%，生产成本1300.71元/吨，环比下 分析师：张锦 降 13.57%，陕西兰炭中料主流价939.06元/吨，环比下降13.05%；未煅烧白 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 云石进口1.49万吨，环比提升11%，已煅烧/未煅烧白云石出口5176吨/10万 电话：021-20321304 吨，环比提升6.25%/9.41%；硅铁产量42.6万吨，环比提升0.35%，兰州硅 邮箱：zhangjin@cnhbstock.com 铁价格6335.71元/吨，环比下降2.4%。供应端，3月我国生产原镁7.73万吨， 环比提升5.8%，平均镁锭价格1.97万元/吨，环比下降8.4%。预计4月金属 研究助理：张后来 镁开工率有望进一步恢复，金属镁价格预计将保持偏稳运行。 邮箱：zhanghoulai@cnhbstock.com 下游 ...

2024年 04月 22日 证券研究报告 | 产业月报 月整体需求不及预期，钢价震荡下行 3 钢铁 3 月月报 钢铁 投资要点 投资评级：推荐（维持） 3月供给修复快于需求，钢价震荡下行：3月钢铁及成品材产量升降并存。3 月粗钢产量8827万吨，同比-7.8%；从成材端的产量来看，3月份钢材产量12337 分析师：张锦 万吨，同比0.1%，五大材产量合计4221.07万吨，同比-11.9%。3月螺纹钢、 分析师登记编码：S0890521080001 线材、中厚板、热轧板卷、冷轧板卷的表观消费量分别为1032.22万吨、415.79 电话：021-20321304 万吨、740.94万吨、1567.97万吨、436.23万吨，同比分别为-38.3%、-35.4%、 邮箱：zhangjin@cnhbstock.com -1.5%、-1.5%、3.7%，螺纹钢、线材下滑较为严重，冷轧板卷有一定增量。3 月受地产销售不佳、基建投资增速缓慢、需求偏弱、库存压力较大等因素的影 销售服务电话： 响，钢材价格整体震荡下行。3月钢材综合价格指数为108.25，环比-3.5%，同 021-20515355 比-9%。 行业走势 ...