Group 1 - The bond market is expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival, with a potential shift in market logic after the holiday, as economic recovery and policy expectations may influence bond market sentiment [1][12] - The 10-year government bond yield may drop below 1.80%, with a possible gradual decline in the volatility center from around 1.85% to approximately 1.80% in February [1][12] - If the 10-year government bond yield breaks below 1.80%, it is advisable to consider taking profits near 1.77%, while a rebound to 1.84%-1.85% could present a small-scale buying opportunity [1][12] Group 2 - The stock market is experiencing early and rapid spring momentum, but regulatory guidance is leading to a more rational market [2][15] - Due to increased volatility in asset prices, some funds are adopting a more cautious trading approach, and profit-taking intentions are rising [2][15] - It is recommended to consider taking profits or shifting to a more conservative style before the Spring Festival, with potential opportunities in low-valuation sectors like consumption and real estate after the holiday [2][15] Group 3 - The overseas market shows earnings support, but stock volatility risks remain, with approximately 78% of S&P 500 companies exceeding earnings expectations [15][26] - Concerns over the "AI" bubble may lead to volatility in the U.S. stock market, especially if labor market data continues to show weakness [15][26] - The upcoming release of key economic data, including U.S. non-farm payrolls and inflation figures, will be crucial for market direction [30]

证券研究报告——宏观策略月报 理性降温，风格暂回稳健 ——2026年2月资产配置报告 HWABAO SECURITIES 2026年2月5日 分析师： 蔡梦苑（执业证书编号：S0890521120001） 分析师： 郝一凡（执业证书编号：S0890524080002） 分析师： 刘 芳（执业证书编号：S0890524100002） ► 请仔细阅读报告结尾处风险提示及免责声明 宏观主线梳理 | | | 宏观主线梳理 | | --- | --- | --- | | | Ø | 美国劳动力延续疲弱，美联储短期或维持利率不变，缩表落地概率较低 美国劳动力市场疲软，通胀温和 | | | u | 12月新增非农人数走弱、前期数据下修，与失业率"虚低"并存，这共同指向劳动力市场状况正在仍在恶化。 | | | u | 12月通胀温和，反映了先前市场担忧的关税传导效应，其影响可能是"一次性"的。未来通胀更多取决于租房价格服务业和能源 | | 海外宏观 | | 价格，整体相对温和可控。 | | | Ø | 美联储短期或维持利率不变，缩表落地概率较低 | | | u | 美联储在1月FOMC会议上维持政策利率不变，且表态偏鹰。考虑 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The scale of bank wealth management products continues to shrink, with a significant reduction in the number of banks and the total value of existing products [3][10]. - There is a growing consensus in the market regarding the transformation towards agency sales, as banks face regulatory pressures to reduce their wealth management business [10][11]. - The phenomenon of "high-yield product ranking" is likely to attract regulatory scrutiny, as some wealth management companies may manipulate yields to attract funds [13][14]. Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - As of the end of 2025, there were 159 banks and 32 wealth management companies with existing products, a decrease of 59 banks from the end of 2024. The total scale of bank wealth management products reached 2.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 29.12% [3][10]. - The market share of bank wealth management products fell from 12.2% in 2024 to 7.8% in 2025, indicating a simultaneous contraction in the number of entities, scale, and market share [10]. - Regulatory measures are tightening, with a focus on standardizing information disclosure for asset management products to prevent misleading marketing practices [14][15]. Peer Innovation Dynamics - Ningyin Wealth Management has actively participated in the new stock offline subscription business, with 7 products involved in inquiries for 40 new stocks, achieving a 90% success rate [17][19]. - The company has established a professional equity research team to support its investment strategies, focusing on key sectors such as technology and manufacturing [17][18]. Yield Performance - For the week of January 26 to February 1, 2026, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.28%, a slight increase of 1 basis point from the previous week [20][22]. - In contrast, the annualized yield for money market funds decreased to 1.15%, resulting in a yield differential of 0.13% between the two product types [20][22]. Net Value Tracking - The net value loss rate for bank wealth management products was 0.61%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points from the previous week [29][32]. - The credit spread narrowed by 1.96 basis points, indicating a potential correlation between net value loss rates and credit spreads [29][32].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The scale of bank wealth management products continues to shrink, with a significant reduction in the number of banks and the total value of products, indicating a market consensus on the transition to distribution models [3][10] - There is a growing concern regarding the "high yield showcase" phenomenon in wealth management products, which may attract regulatory scrutiny due to the manipulation of short-term yields to attract investments [3][13] - The report highlights the active participation of Ningyin Wealth Management in the new stock subscription market, indicating a strategic focus on equity investments to enhance returns [3][17] Summary by Sections Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - As of the end of 2025, there were 159 banks and 32 wealth management companies with active products, with a 29.12% year-on-year decline in the total value of bank wealth management products to 2.58 trillion yuan, reducing their market share from 12.2% in 2024 to 7.8% in 2025 [3][10] - The trend of banks transitioning to distribution models is becoming a consensus, especially among small and medium-sized banks, as they face restrictions on their wealth management operations [11][12] Peer Innovation Dynamics - Ningyin Wealth Management has actively engaged in the new stock subscription market, with 7 products participating in inquiries for 40 new stocks, achieving a 90% success rate in allocations, totaling over 15 million yuan [3][17] - The establishment of a professional research team by Ningyin Wealth Management supports its investment strategies in the equity market, particularly in the hard technology sector [18] Yield Performance - For the week of January 26 to February 1, 2026, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.28%, a slight increase of 1 basis point, while money market funds saw a decrease to 1.15% [20][23] - The report notes a general decline in yields across various fixed-income products, influenced by market volatility and changes in monetary policy [24][31] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of bank wealth management products was reported at 0.61%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points, indicating potential pressure on the products if credit spreads continue to widen [29][32]

2026 年 02 月 03 日 证券研究报告 | 财富生态周报 ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报 2026/2/3 分析师：卫以诺 分析师登记编码：S0890518120001 电话：021-20321014 邮箱：weiyinuo@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 分析师：薛婧怡 分析师登记编码：S0890525070001 电话：021-20321092 邮箱：xuejingyi@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 2026/1/27》2026-01-27 2、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2026/1/20》2026-01-20 3、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2026/1/14》2026-01-14 4、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2026/1/6》2026-01-06 5、《ETF 及指数产品网格策略周报— 2025/12/30》2025-12-30 投资要点 分析师：程秉哲 ◆网格交易策略概述：简单来说，"网格交易"本质上是一种 ...

Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week (2026.01.26 - 2026.01.30), the A - share market was volatile and differentiated, with high trading volume, extreme differentiation, and rapid rotation. The market's driving logic shifted from macro - cycle trading to micro - performance verification, and it's advisable to focus on mid - stream industries with profitability repair and ROE improvement [2][3][11][12][13] - The bond market was volatile last week, and the current environment is favorable for the bond market. The 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to gradually decline towards 1.80%. In the context of increased volatility in the equity market, the relative value of bond coupon allocation has increased [4][14] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission released a draft for public comments on amending the information disclosure rules for public funds, aiming to guide the industry to focus on the concepts of "long - term investment and value investment" [5][17] Weekly Market Observation 1.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.1%, the CSI 500 fell 2.6%, and the ChiNext fell 0.1%. The market was characterized by extreme differentiation and rapid rotation under high trading volume, with more stocks falling than rising [2][11] - Market funds were in a fierce game between inflation trading and the technology growth theme. "Price trends" were the guiding principle in the first half of the week, and later, policies and performance became the main drivers of style switching. The annual performance forecast disclosure was a key factor for individual stock trends [3][12] - The market's driving logic shifted from macro - cycle trading to micro - performance verification. Funds tended to seek more balanced and performance - supported allocations, and it's recommended to focus on mid - stream industries [13] 1.2 Pan - Fixed - Income Market Review and Observation - Last week, the bond market was volatile. The 1 - year Treasury yield rose 1.80BP to 1.30%, the 10 - year yield declined 1.86BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year yield rose 0.19BP to 2.29%. The 10 - year yield is expected to gradually decline towards 1.80% [4][14] - The current environment is favorable for the bond market. The central bank maintains stable liquidity, and the cautious economic growth targets in many places ease the market's expectations of strong fiscal stimulus. The bond market sentiment is gradually improving [4][14] - Last week, the U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened. The 1 - year yield declined 5BP to 3.48%, the 2 - year yield declined 8BP to 3.52%, and the 10 - year yield rose 2BP to 4.26%. The appointment of Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chairman affected the U.S. Treasury yield curve [15] - The CSI REITs Total Return Index rose 0.47% last week, with municipal environmental protection and highways leading the gains. Ten new public REITs made progress in the primary market [15] 1.3 Public Fund Market Dynamics - On January 30, 2026, the China Securities Regulatory Commission released a draft for public comments on amending the information disclosure rules for public funds. The new rules require adding the medium - to - long - term performance of the past 7 and 10 years, no longer disclosing the past 1 - month performance, and adding disclosure requirements such as fair trading, employee fund - holding, and trading unit leasing [5][17] Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1 Equity Strategy Theme - Based Index - **Active Stock Fund Selection**: The index selects 15 funds each period, with equal - weight allocation. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability, and balance the style according to the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index. The performance benchmark is the CSI Equity - Oriented Fund Index [21][22] 2.2 Investment Style - Based Index - **Value Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index [25] - **Balanced Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 10 relatively balanced and value - growth style funds. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 [25][26] - **Growth Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth Index [29] 2.3 Industry Theme - Based Index - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 15 funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the pharmaceutical industry. The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index [32][33] - **Consumer Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 10 funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the consumer industry. The performance benchmark is the consumer theme fund index [33][34] - **Technology Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 10 funds with an average purity of no less than 60% in the technology industry. The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index [37] - **High - End Manufacturing Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 10 funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the high - end manufacturing industry. The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index [42][43] - **Cyclical Stock Fund Selection**: It selects 5 funds with an average purity of no less than 50% in the cyclical industry. The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index [45][46] 2.4 Money - Market Enhancement Index - **Money - Market Enhancement Strategy**: The index aims for liquidity management, pursues a curve that exceeds money - market funds and is smoothly upward. It mainly allocates money - market funds and inter - bank certificate of deposit index funds. The performance benchmark is the CSI Money - Market Fund Index [48] 2.5 Pure Bond Index - **Short - Term Bond Fund Selection**: It selects 5 funds with stable long - term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute - return ability. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short - Term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% * Ordinary Money - Market Fund Index [52] - **Medium - and Long - Term Bond Fund Selection**: It selects 5 medium - and long - term pure bond funds with both return and drawdown control, and adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit bond and interest - rate bond funds according to the market [54] 2.6 Fixed - Income + Index - **Low - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection**: The equity center is 10%. It selects 10 funds with an equity center of less than 15%. The performance benchmark is 10% CSI 800 Index+90% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [57] - **Medium - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection**: The equity center is 20%. It selects 5 funds with an equity center between 15% - 25%. The performance benchmark is 20% CSI 800 Index+80% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [60] - **High - Volatility Fixed - Income + Selection**: The equity center is 30%. It selects 5 funds with an equity center between 25% - 35%. The performance benchmark is 30% CSI 800 Index+70% ChinaBond New Composite Full - Price Index [63] 2.7 Other Pan - Fixed - Income Index - **Convertible Bond Fund Selection**: It selects 5 convertible bond funds based on an evaluation system from multiple dimensions. The sample space requires a high proportion of convertible bond investment [66] - **QDII Bond Fund Selection**: It selects 6 QDII bond funds with stable returns and good risk control based on credit and duration [69] - **REITs Fund Selection**: It selects 10 REITs funds with stable operation, reasonable valuation, and certain elasticity based on the underlying asset type [70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents several ETF strategy indices constructed by Huabao Research and tracks their performance and positions on a weekly basis, aiming to help investors convert quantitative models or subjective views into practical investment strategies [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 ETF Strategy Index Tracking - **Overall Performance**: The table shows the performance of various ETF strategy indices last week. The Huabao Research Quantitative Windmill ETF Strategy Index had the highest weekly excess return of 2.56%, while the Huabao Research SmartBeta Enhanced ETF Strategy Index had the lowest weekly excess return of -2.76% [12] 3.1.1 Huabao Research Size Rotation ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It uses multi - dimensional technical indicator factors and a machine - learning model to predict the return difference between the Shenwan Large - Cap Index and the Shenwan Small - Cap Index. It outputs weekly signals to predict the strength of the indices in the next week and determines positions accordingly to obtain excess returns [13] - **Performance**: As of 2026/1/30, the excess return since 2024 was 29.34%, the excess return in the past month was 5.89%, and the excess return in the past week was - 1.86%. The index's positions include 50% in the CSI 500ETF and 50% in the CSI 1000ETF [13][17] 3.1.2 Huabao Research SmartBeta Enhanced ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It uses price - volume indicators to time self - built Barra factors and maps timing signals to ETFs based on their exposure to 9 major Barra factors to achieve market - outperforming returns. The selected ETFs cover mainstream broad - based index ETFs and some style and strategy ETFs [17] - **Performance**: As of 2026/1/30, the excess return since 2024 was 20.15%, the excess return in the past month was - 2.11%, and the excess return in the past week was - 2.76%. The index's positions are mainly in several science - innovation and growth - style ETFs [17] 3.1.3 Huabao Research Quantitative Windmill ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It starts from a multi - factor perspective, including the grasp of medium - to - long - term fundamentals, tracking of short - term market trends, and analysis of the behavior of various market participants. It uses valuation and crowding signals to indicate industry risks and multi - dimensionally digs out potential sectors to obtain excess returns [20] - **Performance**: As of 2026/1/30, the excess return since 2024 was 51.39%, the excess return in the past month was 6.51%, and the excess return in the past week was 2.56%. The index's positions are mainly in commodity - related and financial - related ETFs [20][25] 3.1.4 Huabao Research Quantitative Balance ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It adopts a multi - factor system, including economic fundamentals, liquidity, technical analysis, and investor behavior factors, to construct a quantitative timing system for trend analysis of the equity market. It also builds a prediction model for market large - and small - cap styles to adjust the equity market position distribution and obtain excess returns through comprehensive timing and rotation [24] - **Performance**: As of 2026/1/30, the excess return since 2024 was - 10.24%, the excess return in the past month was 0.48%, and the excess return in the past week was - 0.36%. The index's positions include bonds and equity - based ETFs [24][27] 3.1.5 Huabao Research Hot - Spot Tracking ETF Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It uses strategies such as market sentiment analysis, tracking of major industry events, investor sentiment and professional opinions, policy and regulatory changes, and historical analysis to track and dig out hot - spot index target products in a timely manner, constructing an ETF portfolio that can capture market hot spots and providing short - term market trend references for investors [27] - **Performance**: As of 2026/1/30, the excess return in the past month was 6.21%, and the excess return in the past week was 3.21%. The index's positions are mainly in commodity, Hong - Kong - stock, and short - term financing ETFs [27][30] 3.1.6 Huabao Research Bond ETF Duration Strategy Index - **Strategy**: It uses bond market liquidity and price - volume indicators to screen effective timing factors and predicts bond yields through machine - learning methods. When the expected yield is below a certain threshold, it reduces the long - duration positions in the bond investment portfolio to improve long - term returns and drawdown control [30] - **Performance**: As of 2026/1/30, the excess return in the past month was 0.40%, and the excess return in the past week was 0.14%. The index's positions are mainly in bond - related ETFs [30][33]

Group 1 - The report indicates that market volatility has significantly increased, suggesting a return to a more stable investment approach as the market approaches the holiday season [4][14] - The bond market is showing signs of support, with the central bank's clear stance on maintaining liquidity, which is expected to help stabilize the market during the holiday period [3][13] - The report highlights that the 10-year government bond yield is anticipated to gradually decline to around 1.80%, emphasizing the importance of high-yield bond allocations [3][13] Group 2 - The equity market is experiencing increased volatility, with a shift towards more defensive sectors such as liquor and real estate, indicating a potential end to the current market rotation [4][14] - The report notes that the A-share market has shown a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.44% and the Wind All A Index down by 1.59% [11] - The report suggests that investors should consider reducing exposure to sectors lacking earnings support and increase holdings in high-dividend stocks to mitigate portfolio volatility [4][14] Group 3 - The report provides a review of significant events, including the announcement of the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, reflecting a cautious approach to economic conditions [10] - It also mentions that the profit of large-scale industrial enterprises in China increased by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a stable economic environment [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring upcoming economic indicators, such as the European Central Bank's interest rate decision and U.S. non-farm payroll data [27]

银行理财周度跟踪（2026.1.19-2026.1.25） 分析师：蔡梦苑 分析师登记编码：S0890521120001 电话：021-20321004 邮箱：caimengyuan@cnhbstock.com 分析师：周佳卉 分析师登记编码：S0890525040001 电话：021-20321070 邮箱：zhoujiahui@cnhbstock.com 2026 年 01 月 28 日 证券研究报告|银行理财周报 2025 年报：规模高增，结构优化，增配基金和存款 021-20515355 期 新 品 亮 相 — 银 行 理 财 周 度 跟 踪 （2026.1.12-2026.1.18）》2026-01-21 2、《公募销售新规正式落地，理财子深化 推进新直联系统上线—银行理财周度跟 踪（2025.12.29-2026.1.4）》2026-01-07 3、《信披统一框架正式落地，苏银理财深 耕持有型不动产 ABS 实践—银行理财周 度 跟 踪 （ 2025.12.22-2025.12.28 ）》 2025-12-31 4、《理财共议高质量发展新路径，首单科 创债 ETF 质押式回购交易落地—银行理 财周 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The banking wealth management market reached a total scale of 33.29 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting an 11.15% growth from the beginning of the year, with an annual increment of 3.34 trillion yuan [2][9] - The product structure shows a clear trend of "cash management contraction, fixed income dominance, and mixed asset expansion" [10] - The report highlights a significant increase in allocations to public funds and bank deposits, while reducing allocations to credit bonds and interbank certificates of deposit [11][12] Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The banking wealth management market demonstrated resilience with multiple growth drivers, including the "deposit migration" narrative, proactive market layout by wealth management companies, and strong net value management capabilities [9] - The product structure optimization indicates a shift towards fixed income products, which contributed significantly to the growth, while cash management products saw a decline in both scale and attractiveness [10] - By the end of 2025, public fund investments reached 1.82 trillion yuan, marking a historical high, while cash and bank deposits also increased to 10.06 trillion yuan [11] Yield Performance - The average yield of wealth management products fell below 2% for the first time, recorded at 1.98%, down from 2.12% in the first half of 2025 and 2.65% in 2024 [13] - Recent weekly data shows cash management products had a 7-day annualized yield of 1.27%, a decrease of 1 basis point [14][18] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio of banking wealth management products was 0.55%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points from the previous week, with credit spreads also narrowing [25][26]