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公募基金权益指数跟踪周报(2025.12.15-2025.12.19):外部担忧缓解,延续震荡格局-20251222
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-22 09:03
Report Summary 1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View of the Report - The market continued its high - level oscillation last week (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.19), with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.03% and the CSI 300 falling 0.28%. The value style outperformed the growth style. In the short term, the market is expected to continue its structurally differentiated market, and broad - based indices may maintain high - level oscillations. In the long term, industrial innovation changes and long - term capital inflows are still expected to support the market [3][12][13]. - Domestic policies are focused on boosting domestic demand and consumption. There may be continuous policies in the future to optimize the implementation of relevant policies, clear unreasonable restrictions in the consumption field, and release the potential of service consumption. Attention should also be paid to whether the expanded national subsidy policy will be introduced after New Year's Day to further boost consumption [5][13]. - The Hong Kong stock market was under pressure last week due to factors such as the rise of US bond yields and concerns about the reversal of yen carry - trades. In the short term, market risk appetite may be under pressure, but it still has certain valuation advantages if short - term suppressing factors are eliminated [5][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Market Review and Observation - **Market Performance**: The market continued high - level oscillation last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.03% and the CSI 300 down 0.28%. The value style was stronger than the growth style. The financial and consumption sectors performed relatively well, while the growth sector was weak. The average daily trading volume of the whole market was 17,465 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [12]. - **Overseas Market**: After the concern about the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike was alleviated and the US non - farm payrolls report and inflation data were weaker than expected, the risk appetite of the financial market was restored, and overseas technology assets rebounded from oversold conditions. However, there are still concerns about US re - inflation, and US bond yields remained strong [12]. - **Domestic Market**: Benefiting from the elevation of domestic demand expansion to a strategic level, various ministries and official media have continuously emphasized domestic demand expansion and consumption promotion. The market has switched to cyclical sectors dominated by service consumption. Since December, there have been many market hotspots but no clear main line [12][13]. - **Domestic Demand Policy**: The core of the policy is to adhere to the strategic base point of domestic demand expansion, promote the in - depth integration of people's livelihood improvement and consumption promotion, and stimulate market vitality. There may be continuous policies in the future, and attention should be paid to whether the national subsidy policy will be expanded after New Year's Day [13]. - **Hong Kong Stock Market**: The Hang Seng Index fell 1.10% and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.82% last week. Most sectors pulled back. The rise of US bond yields and concerns about the reversal of yen carry - trades suppressed the liquidity of the Hong Kong stock market. In the short term, market risk appetite may be under pressure, but it has certain valuation advantages in the long run [14]. 3.2 Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking | Index Classification | Last Week (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.19) | Last Month (2025.11.19 - 2025.12.19) | Since the Beginning of This Year (2025.01.02 - 2025.12.19) | Since Inception | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Strategy Theme: Active Stock Fund Preferred | 0.09% | 1.95% | 39.19% | 40.32% | | Investment Style: Value Stock Fund Preferred | 1.02% | 0.67% | 19.97% | 20.06% | | Investment Style: Balanced Stock Fund Preferred | - 0.11% | 0.32% | 30.61% | 27.74% | | Investment Style: Growth Stock Fund Preferred | - 1.02% | 1.61% | 52.89% | 39.15% | | Industry Theme: Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred | - 2.04% | - 2.88% | 33.86% | 15.96% | | Industry Theme: Consumption Stock Fund Preferred | 0.03% | - 0.33% | 11.14% | 3.98% | | Industry Theme: Technology Stock Fund Preferred | - 1.45% | 1.21% | 45.92% | 48.21% | | Industry Theme: High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred | - 3.24% | - 2.33% | 30.77% | 24.46% | | Industry Theme: Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred | 1.68% | 2.82% | 29.40% | 20.26% | [15] - **Active Stock Fund Preferred**: Each period selects 15 funds with equal - weight allocation. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness, style stability, etc., and balance the style distribution according to the CSI Active Stock Fund Index. The performance benchmark is the Active Stock Fund Index (930980.CSI) [16]. - **Value Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds of deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 Value Index (H30356.CSI) [18]. - **Balanced Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds of relatively balanced and value - growth styles. The performance benchmark is the CSI 800 (000906.SH) [20]. - **Growth Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds of active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles. The performance benchmark is the 800 Growth Index (H30355.CSI) [22][23]. - **Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 15 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). The performance benchmark is the pharmaceutical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [23][27]. - **Consumption Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). The performance benchmark is the consumption theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [27]. - **Technology Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Electronics, etc.). The performance benchmark is the technology theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [32]. - **High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 10 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Construction, etc.). The performance benchmark is the high - end manufacturing theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [34]. - **Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred**: Selects 5 funds based on the intersection market value ratio of the fund's equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical, etc.). The performance benchmark is the cyclical theme fund index (fitted by Huabao Fund Research and Investment Platform) [34][35].
ETF策略指数跟踪周报-20251222
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-22 08:20
Report Overview - The report provides a weekly tracking of the performance and positions of several ETF strategy indices developed by Huabao Research, covering the period up to December 19, 2025 [12]. 1. ETF Strategy Index Tracking 1.1. Huabao Research Size Rotation ETF Strategy Index - Utilizes multi - dimensional technical indicators and a machine - learning model to predict the return difference between the Shenwan large - cap and small - cap indices, determining positions weekly to gain excess returns [14]. - As of December 19, 2025, the excess return since 2024 is 20.03%, the excess return in the past month is - 0.48%, and the excess return in the past week is 0.07% [14]. - The current position is 100% in the CSI 300ETF [19]. 1.2. Huabao Research SmartBeta Enhanced ETF Strategy Index - Uses price - volume indicators to time self - built barra factors and maps timing signals to ETFs based on their exposure to 9 barra factors, aiming for market - outperforming returns [19]. - As of December 19, 2025, the excess return since 2024 is 19.82%, the excess return in the past month is - 0.33%, and the excess return in the past week is - 2.33% [19]. - The current positions include 25.05% in the ChiNext ETF, 25.03% in the ChiNext Large - cap ETF, 24.98% in the STAR Market - ChiNext ETF, and 24.95% in the STAR 50ETF [23]. 1.3. Huabao Research Quantitative Fire - Wheel ETF Strategy Index - Adopts a multi - factor approach, including fundamental analysis, short - term trend tracking, and market participant behavior analysis, using valuation and crowding signals to identify risks and potential sectors for excess returns [23]. - As of December 19, 2025, the excess return since 2024 is 34.96%, the excess return in the past month is - 1.12%, and the excess return in the past week is 1.47% [23]. - The current positions are 21.32% in the Securities and Insurance ETF, 20.08% in the Chemicals ETF, 19.97% in the Oil and Gas ETF, 19.51% in the Steel ETF, and 19.12% in the New Energy ETF [27]. 1.4. Huabao Research Quantitative Balance ETF Strategy Index - Builds a quantitative timing system with four types of factors (economic fundamentals, liquidity, technicals, and investor behavior) to judge equity market trends and adjust positions between large - and small - cap styles for excess returns [27]. - As of December 19, 2025, the excess return since 2024 is - 9.79%, the excess return in the past month is - 0.93%, and the excess return in the past week is 0.39% [27]. - The current positions include 9.32% in the 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF, 5.95% in the CSI 500 Enhanced ETF, 5.80% in the CSI 1000ETF, 32.60% in the CSI 300 Enhanced ETF, 23.18% in the Policy Financial Bond ETF, and 23.14% in the Short - Term Financing ETF [30]. 1.5. Huabao Research Hot - Spot Tracking ETF Strategy Index - Tracks market sentiment, industry events, investor sentiment, policies, and historical trends to capture hot - spot index products and build an ETF portfolio for short - term market trend reference [30]. - As of December 19, 2025, the excess return in the past month is - 1.31%, and the excess return in the past week is - 0.05% [30]. - The current positions are 37.33% in the Non - Ferrous Metals 50ETF, 23.72% in the Bosera Hong Kong Stock Dividend ETF, 19.94% in the Hong Kong Stock Connect Pharmaceutical ETF, and 19.01% in the Short - Term Financing ETF [34]. 1.6. Huabao Research Bond ETF Duration Strategy Index - Uses bond market liquidity and price - volume indicators to select timing factors and predicts bond yields through machine learning, reducing long - duration positions when expected yields are low to improve long - term returns and control drawdowns [34]. - As of December 19, 2025, the excess return in the past month is 0.29%, and the excess return in the past week is 0.07% [34]. - The current positions include 50.00% in the 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF, 25.00% in the Policy Financial Bond ETF, and 24.99% in the 5 - to 10 - Year Treasury Bond ETF [37].
策略周报:继续耐心布局高景气-20251221
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-21 13:02
2025 年 12 月 21 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 继续耐心布局高景气 策略周报 分析师:郝一凡 分析师登记编码:S0890524080002 电话:021-20321080 邮箱:haoyifan@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码:S0890524100002 电话:021-20321091 邮箱:liufang@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 相关研究报告 1、《由守转攻,布局高景气方向等风起 —策略周报》2025-12-07 2、《全球共振高位调整,耐心等待情绪 企稳 —策略周报》2025-11-23 3、《沪指围绕 4000 点震荡整固,轮动 有所加快 —策略周报》2025-11-09 4、《波动再度放大,如何应对? —策略 周报》2025-10-12 5、《长假期间国内外大事一览—策略周 报》2025-10-09 投资要点 分析师:刘芳 【债市方面】做多情绪有所回升,但仍以震荡思维对待。年末市场利空或已 被充分计价,在收益率处于近期偏高水平的阶段,市场做多情绪有所回升,对 降息、公募基金费率新规落地的预期回暖。但当前债市利好落地后兑现速度较 快,预计 10 ...
新股发行及今日交易提示-20251219
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-19 07:40
| 新股发行及今日交易提示 | 2025/12/19 | 星期五 | 2025/12/19 | 新股发行 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 发行价格 | 787809 | 强一股份 | 85.09 | | | | | 001396 | 誉帆科技 | 22.29 | 001369 | 双欣环保 | 6.85 | | | | | 2025/12/19 | 新股上市 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 发行价格 | | | | | | 688807 | 优迅股份 | 51.66 | 2025/12/19 | 内地市场权益提示 | | | | | | 类别 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 权益日期 | 最新公告链接 | http://www.cninfo.com.cn/new/disclosure/detail?stockCode=300087&announcementId=122486854 | 要约申报期:2025年12月4日至2026年1月5日 | 300087 | 荃银高科 | | 0 ...
市场环境因子跟踪周报(2025.12.12):A股调整稳固,商品趋势度提升-20251218
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-18 09:29
- The report covers the period from December 8, 2025, to December 12, 2025[2][10] - The A-share market showed limited incremental funds and a characteristic of stock game due to seasonal tightening of funds towards the end of the year[3][10] - In the stock market, the style was biased towards small-cap and growth, with decreased volatility in the small-cap style and increased volatility in the growth style[11][13] - The market structure showed a decrease in industry excess return dispersion, industry rotation speed, and the proportion of rising constituent stocks[11][13] - The trading concentration increased for the top 100 stocks but decreased for the top 5 industries[11][13] - Market activity showed a decline in both market volatility and turnover rate[12][13] - In the commodity market, trend strength increased, especially in precious metals and non-ferrous metals, while the basis momentum rose in the energy and chemical sectors but fell in others[26][33] - Volatility increased in all sectors except energy and chemicals, with precious metals maintaining high volatility, and liquidity rose slightly in all sectors except black metals[26][33] - In the options market, the implied volatility of the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 further declined to historical lows, with the put skew decreasing for the SSE 50 and increasing for the CSI 1000[37] - In the convertible bond market, the market showed low volatility, with the premium rate of bonds convertible at par remaining high, the pure bond premium rate decreasing, and the proportion of low premium convertible bonds declining[41]
新股发行及今日交易提示-20251218
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-18 08:15
New Stock Issuance - New stock listing for Yuan Chuang Co., Ltd. at an issuance price of ¥24.75[1] - Offer period for Qian Yin Gao Ke (stock code: 300087) from December 4, 2025, to January 5, 2026[1] - Offer period for Tian Pu Co., Ltd. (stock code: 605255) from November 20, 2025, to December 19, 2025[1] Market Alerts - Guo Sheng Technology (stock code: 603778) reported severe abnormal fluctuations[1] - ST Li Fang (stock code: 300344) and ST Su Wu (stock code: 600200) are in the delisting arrangement period with 9 and 7 trading days remaining, respectively[1] - ST Ao Wei (stock code: 002231) and ST Hu Ke (stock code: 600608) have reported recent trading activity with prices at ¥3 and ¥0, respectively[1] Trading Updates - Bai Da Group (stock code: 600865) has a trading price of ¥64[1] - Longzhou Co., Ltd. (stock code: 002682) and Fei Wo Technology (stock code: 301232) both have trading prices of ¥3[1] - Multiple companies, including ST Yan Shi (stock code: 600696) and Bo Na Film (stock code: 001330), have reported trading prices of ¥7 and ¥3, respectively[1]
利率风险管理迎重要突破,理财打新再添硕果
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-17 11:53
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The banking wealth management industry has achieved a significant breakthrough in interest rate risk management, allowing wealth management companies to independently participate in the interbank market for interest rate derivatives, enhancing product net value stability [4][12][13] - Wealth management companies are increasingly active in IPO allocations, with notable participation in high-tech sectors, reflecting a strategic shift towards equity investments to enhance returns in a low-interest-rate environment [14][15][16] - The introduction of the "Zhaoyin Wealth Management ETF Covered Call Strategy Index" indicates a trend towards strategy-based and tool-oriented transformations within wealth management firms, aiming to provide transparent benchmarks for evaluating performance [17][18] Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - Shanghai Clearing House has facilitated the entry of Xinyin Wealth Management and Zhongyin Wealth Management as the first batch of wealth management companies to obtain qualifications for centralized clearing of interbank market interest rate derivatives, marking a shift to independent participation [4][12] - The restructuring of the relationship between wealth management companies and their parent banks has transformed wealth management companies into independent decision-making entities in the interbank interest rate derivatives market [13] Peer Innovation Dynamics - Ningyin Wealth Management and Xinyin Wealth Management have successfully allocated shares in the IPO of Muxi Co., with a total of 42,300 shares across 10 wealth management products [14] - The launch of the "Zhaoyin Wealth Management ETF Covered Call Strategy Index" aims to present the risk-return characteristics of covered call strategies in a standardized manner, enhancing transparency for investors [17][18] Yield Performance - Cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.27% for the week of December 8-14, 2025, a decrease of 1 basis point from the previous week, while money market funds saw a slight increase to 1.17% [19][20] - The overall yield in the bond market has shown fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 1 basis point to 1.84% during the same period [22][23] Net Value Tracking - The net value of banking wealth management products decreased to 2.64%, down 0.38 percentage points from the previous week, indicating a potential pressure on the liability side if the net value exceeds 5% [30][36]
ETF及指数产品网格策略周报-20251217
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-17 10:22
Group 1: Overview of Grid Trading Strategy - The grid trading strategy is essentially a high buy low sell trading approach, focusing on price fluctuations rather than predicting market trends, making it suitable for volatile markets [3][12] - Characteristics of suitable grid trading targets include: selecting on-market targets, stable long-term trends, low transaction costs, good liquidity, and high volatility, with equity ETFs being particularly appropriate [3][12] Group 2: Analysis of ETF Grid Strategy Targets - The military industry ETF (512710.SH) is expected to benefit from a new round of military procurement driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan," with China's defense budget for 2025 projected at 1.81 trillion yuan, a 7.2% increase year-on-year [3][13] - The Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892.SZ) focuses on innovative drugs, with China's pipeline of 7,041 projects, accounting for 29.5% of the global total, and a year-on-year growth of 15.1%, indicating strong development in the pharmaceutical sector [4][16] - The Hong Kong Automotive ETF (520600.SH) is positioned to benefit from the trends of electrification and globalization in the automotive industry, with domestic sales of new energy vehicles reaching 10.929 million units, a 25.7% increase year-on-year, and exports growing by 90.4% [5][18] - The Gaming ETF (159869.SZ) is supported by the normalization of game license approvals, with 1,624 licenses issued from January to November 2025, and overseas sales of Chinese-developed games reaching $9.501 billion, an 11.07% increase year-on-year [6][21]
新股发行及今日交易提示-20251217
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-17 07:55
New Stock Issuance - New stock listing for Muxi Co., Ltd. at an issuance price of 104.66 CNY[1] Tender Offer Periods - Tender offer period for Quanyin High-Tech from December 4, 2025, to January 5, 2026[1] - Tender offer period for Tianpu Co., Ltd. from November 20, 2025, to December 19, 2025[1] Delisting and Trading Alerts - Guandao Co. is in the delisting arrangement period with 10 trading days remaining[1] - Suwu Co. is in the delisting arrangement period with 8 trading days remaining[1] Stock Price Fluctuations - Significant abnormal fluctuation reported for Guosheng Technology with a price of 0 CNY[1] - Abnormal fluctuation reported for *ST Yanzhen with a price of 81 CNY[3] - Abnormal fluctuation reported for Guangxi Broadcasting with a price of 61 CNY[3]
新股发行及今日交易提示-20251216
HWABAO SECURITIES· 2025-12-16 08:44
New Stock Issuance - Jiangtian Technology (920121) issued at a price of 21.21[1] - Angrui Micro (688790) issued at a price of 83.06[1] Tender Offer Periods - Tender offer for Quanyin High-Tech (300087) from December 4, 2025, to January 5, 2026[1] - Tender offer for Tianpu Co., Ltd. (605255) from November 20, 2025, to December 19, 2025[1] Delisting and Trading Reminders - Guandao Tui (920680) has 11 trading days remaining until the last trading day[1] - Delisting period for Suwu (600200) has 9 trading days remaining[1] Abnormal Fluctuations - Severe abnormal fluctuations reported for *ST Lifang (300344)[1] - Abnormal fluctuations noted for *ST Yaping (600678)[2]