hjn 2025 年 11 月 03 日 证券研究报告 | 公募基金周报 ETF 策略指数跟踪周报 2025/11/3 分析师：卫以诺 分析师登记编码：S0890518120001 电话：021-20321014 邮箱：weiyinuo@cnhbstock.com 分析师登记编码：S0890522110001 电话：021-20321297 邮箱：chengbingzhe@cnhbstock.com 邮箱：zhangjunrui@cnhbstock.com 021-20515355 1、《风险因素缓解，海内外市场保持震荡 上行趋势—公募基金量化遴选类策略指 数跟踪周报（2025.10.26）》2025-10-28 2、《指数创新高，风格再均衡—公募基金 权 益 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （2025.10.20-2025.10.24）》2025-10-27 3、《股债跷跷板效应再现，债市窄幅震荡 — 公 募 基 金 泛 固 收 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （2025.10.20-2025.10.24）》2025-10-27 4 、《 ETF 策 略 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 — 2025/10/27》2025-10-2 ...

Market Overview - The report indicates that market sentiment remains high, with a potential shift in investment style towards small-cap stocks due to high valuations and performance pressures on large-cap growth stocks [4][16] - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 4000 points, driven by improved Sino-U.S. relations and the release of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [13][16] Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to focus on tactical operations, with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) resuming government bond purchases, which is seen as a positive signal for market stability [12][14] - The report suggests a configuration value around 1.85% for bonds, recommending moderate increases near the upper range and timely profit-taking near the lower range of 1.75% [3][14] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes a structural opportunity in the market, advising investors to focus on sectors with reasonable valuations and clear industrial trends while being cautious of high-positioned large-cap stocks [4][16] - It highlights the potential for small-cap stocks to outperform during the earnings vacuum period in November, as funds may flow from large-cap stocks to lower-valued, more elastic small-cap targets [4][16] Economic Indicators - The report notes that the U.S. Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, which is expected to provide a supportive liquidity environment for the market [10][14] - It also mentions that the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China fell to 49.0% in October, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [11][12] Performance Metrics - The domestic macro multi-asset model has achieved a year-to-date return of 13.10%, outperforming its benchmark by 4.26% [24] - The report indicates that the average daily trading volume in the A-share market has increased to 23,253.35 billion yuan, reflecting heightened market activity [22]

Group 1: New Stock Issuances - Multiple new stock issuances are scheduled for October 31, 2025, including Jiangbolong (301308) and Shikong Technology (605178) [1] - A total of 30 companies have announcements related to stock issuance or trading on this date [1] Group 2: Trading Alerts - Jiangbolong (301308) reported severe abnormal fluctuations in trading [1] - Other companies such as ST Wanfang (000638) and Yashichuangneng (603378) also have trading alerts on the same date [1] Group 3: Recent Announcements - Recent announcements include companies like Tianpu Co. (605255) and Kangsheng Co. (002418) with updates on October 31, 2025 [1] - The announcements cover various sectors, indicating a broad market activity [1]

Group 1: Stock Issuance and Trading Alerts - Multiple stocks experienced significant abnormal fluctuations, including 香农芯创 (300475) and 天普股份 (605255) with announcements on October 24 and 21 respectively[1] - 盈新发展 (000620) and *ST宝鹰 (002047) had announcements on October 30 indicating potential trading alerts[1] - A total of 30 stocks were flagged for abnormal trading activities on October 30, indicating a heightened market volatility[1] Group 2: Recent Announcements - 许多公司如 ST万方 (000638) and 农心科技 (001231) had their announcements published on October 27, indicating ongoing corporate activities[2] - The report includes links to detailed announcements for 30 different stocks, providing transparency and access to information for investors[2] - The announcements cover a range of sectors, highlighting the diverse nature of the market and the potential for investment opportunities[2]

- The report tracks various market environment factors, including stock market factors, commodity market factors, options market factors, and convertible bond market factors [1][7][11] - **Stock Market Factors**: - **Market Style**: The style of large-cap and small-cap stocks was balanced, while the value-growth style leaned towards growth [11][13] - **Market Style Volatility**: Both large-cap/small-cap and value-growth style volatilities increased [11][13] - **Market Structure**: Industry excess return dispersion increased, industry rotation speed decreased, and the proportion of rising constituent stocks increased [11][13] - **Trading Concentration**: The transaction amount of the top 100 stocks slightly decreased, while the transaction amount of the top 5 industries remained unchanged compared to the previous period [11][13] - **Market Activity**: Market volatility increased, and market turnover rate decreased [12][13] - **Commodity Market Factors**: - **Trend Strength**: Precious metals and agricultural products showed a decline in trend strength, while other sectors experienced an increase [26][32] - **Basis Momentum**: Basis momentum increased across all sectors [26][32] - **Volatility**: Volatility rose in all sectors except for the black sector [26][32] - **Liquidity**: Liquidity decreased in precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and agricultural products [26][32] - **Options Market Factors**: - **Implied Volatility**: Implied volatility for the SSE 50 and CSI 1000 indices decreased, reflecting a moderation in market expectations regarding Trump's tariff policies [35] - **Implied Discount Rate**: The implied discount rate for CSI 1000 narrowed, but the market did not turn fully optimistic [35] - **Option Holdings**: Both put and call option holdings increased, indicating persistent market uncertainty [35] - **Convertible Bond Market Factors**: - **Market Recovery**: The convertible bond market showed slight recovery last week [37] - **Valuation**: Pure bond premium rates remained stable, while the premium rate for 100-yuan convertible bonds steadily increased [37] - **Low Premium Convertible Bonds**: The proportion of low premium convertible bonds decreased significantly [37] - **Market Turnover**: Market transaction volume stabilized without further contraction [37]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - The banking wealth management market has shown a steady growth in the third quarter of 2025, with a total market size of 32.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.76% [3][11] - The dominance of fixed income products continues, accounting for 97.14% of the total wealth management product size, while mixed products have seen slight growth [12] - The report highlights a shift towards technology-driven services in the wealth management sector, with major firms partnering with Tencent's "Wutong" platform to enhance investor education and customer service capabilities [16] Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The China Banking Wealth Management Registration and Custody Center released the "Quarterly Report on the Banking Wealth Management Market" for Q3 2025, indicating a robust growth in the number of wealth management products and their total size [11] - Several banks have signed agreements with Tencent's "Wutong" platform to leverage technology for improving financial services and investor education [15][16] - The successful implementation of a new data exchange protocol by Agricultural Bank and its wealth management arm marks a significant step towards standardizing and enhancing the efficiency of the wealth management industry [17] Performance Metrics - Cash management products recorded a 7-day annualized yield of 1.27%, a decrease of 4 basis points from the previous week, while money market funds saw a slight increase to 1.17% [19] - The net asset value (NAV) of banking wealth management products has shown a decrease in the breaking net rate to 1.12%, down 0.74 percentage points, indicating a potential pressure on the products' performance [27][29] - The report notes a convergence in credit spreads, which decreased by 3.44 basis points, suggesting a tightening in the credit market [29]

New Stock Issuance - Multiple companies are experiencing significant abnormal fluctuations in stock prices, including 香农芯创 (300475) with a notice date of 2025-10-24[1] - 天普股份 (605255) reported on 2025-10-21[1] - 生益电子 (688183) and 达华智能 (002512) both reported on 2025-10-29[1] Trading Alerts - 21 companies have been flagged for abnormal trading activities as of 2025-10-29, indicating potential volatility in the market[1] - ST新华锦 (600735) and 汇绿生态 (001267) are among those with recent alerts on 2025-10-29[1] - The report includes links to detailed announcements for each company, providing transparency and further information for investors[1] Market Trends - The report highlights a trend of increased scrutiny on companies with abnormal stock price movements, suggesting a potential shift in regulatory focus[1] - Investors are advised to monitor these stocks closely due to the heightened risk associated with abnormal fluctuations[1]

New Stock Issuance - Zhongcheng Consulting (920003) issued at a price of 14.27[1] - Delijia (732092) issued at a price of 46.68[1] - Heyuan Biological (688765) issued at a price of 29.06[1] - Bibete (688759) issued at a price of 17.78[1] - Xian Yicai (688783) issued at a price of 8.62[1] - Taikaiying (920020) issued at a price of 7.50[1] Market Alerts - Offer period for Shangwei New Materials (688585) from September 29 to October 28, 2025[1] - Severe abnormal fluctuation reported for Xiangnan Chip (300475)[1] - Multiple companies including ST Yuancheng (603388) and Tianpu Co. (605255) reported various announcements on October 24 and 28, 2025[1]

分析师：李亭函 分析师登记编码：S0890519080001 电话：021-20321017 邮箱：litinghan@cnhbstock.com 分析师：黄浩 分析师登记编码：S0890524110001 电话：021-20321391 邮箱：huanghao@cnhbstock.com 2025 年 10 月 28 日 证券研究报告 | 公募基金周报 风险因素缓解，海内外市场保持震荡上行趋势 公募基金量化遴选类策略指数跟踪周报（2025.10.26） 021-20515355 1、《指数创新高，风格再均衡—公募基 金 权 益 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （ 2025.10.20- 2025.10.24）》2025-10-27 荡 — 公 募 基 金 泛 固 收 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 （ 2025.10.20-2025.10.24 ）》 2025-10- 27 3 、《 ETF 策 略 指 数 跟 踪 周 报 — 2025/10/27》2025-10-27 4、《关税担忧再起，常青低波再发挥降 波作用—公募基金量化遴选类策略指数 跟踪周报（2025.10.17）》2025-10-21 5、《外部扰动不断，债市 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the effectiveness of grid trading strategies, which capitalize on price fluctuations rather than predicting market trends, making them suitable for volatile markets [4][12]. - The report identifies key characteristics for suitable grid trading targets, including low trading costs, good liquidity, and significant volatility, suggesting that equity ETFs are particularly appropriate for this strategy [4][12]. Group 2 - The report highlights three specific ETFs for grid trading: - The Computer ETF (159586.SZ) aligns with China's 14th Five-Year Plan, focusing on AI applications and digital infrastructure, indicating long-term growth potential driven by strategic policy support [4][13]. - The Saudi ETF (159329.SZ) aims to capture opportunities from Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, which seeks to diversify the economy away from oil dependency, with over 40% of its holdings in the financial sector [5][16]. - The Bank ETF (159887.SZ) offers a high dividend yield of 4.40%, making it an attractive option for long-term capital allocation, particularly for insurance companies looking to mitigate interest rate risks [6][18].