Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the fiscal paradigm of the EU and Germany, with significant military and infrastructure spending planned, suggesting a positive outlook for related sectors [7][25][38]. Core Insights - The EU and Germany are initiating a substantial fiscal expansion, driven by external threats and internal political instability, aiming to enhance defense capabilities and stimulate economic growth [7][20][25]. - The EU's "Rearm Europe" plan is projected to create €800 billion in fiscal support over four years, equivalent to 4.5% of the EU's nominal GDP in 2024 [25][31]. - Germany's proposed reforms include exemptions from debt brakes for defense spending exceeding 1% of GDP and a €500 billion infrastructure fund, potentially generating €1 trillion in economic stimulus over the next decade [38][39]. Summary by Sections 1. "All-Out Effort" Moment - The EU and Germany are responding to geopolitical pressures by significantly increasing defense spending, with the EU's military expansion plan expected to create €800 billion in fiscal space over four years [7][25]. - Internal political crises, including the rise of far-right movements and government instability in Germany, are pushing for a change in fiscal policy [20][22]. 2. Content and Progress of European Fiscal Expansion - The "Rearm Europe" plan allows member states to increase defense budgets without triggering excessive deficit procedures, potentially creating €6.5 billion in fiscal space [25][26]. - The German government is set to reform its debt brake, allowing for increased military and infrastructure spending, with a focus on modernizing various sectors [38][39]. 3. Economic and Asset Impact - Economic growth expectations are revised upward, with a potential 0.5% increase in real GDP for the Eurozone if fiscal expansion begins in Q2 [52]. - The market sentiment is shifting, with the need for catalysts to sustain the euro's appreciation and a focus on structural trends in the stock market, particularly in defense and industrial sectors [61][63]. 4. Challenges of European Fiscal Expansion - The ability of EU member states to execute fiscal expansion varies, with countries like France and Italy facing political resistance due to high debt levels [65]. - The effectiveness of military spending in stimulating economic growth is contingent on domestic production and innovation in the defense sector [70].

行业跟踪报告 | 非银金融 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 18 日 相关研究 【兴证非银】全球养老金图鉴：日本 篇，低利率背景下的出海之路- 2025.03.17 【兴证非银】2024H2 公募基金保有量点 评：指数基金成为保有规模增长胜负手- 2025.03.16 【兴证非银】海外养老金资讯跟踪半月 刊（250215-250228）：未来澳大利亚养 老金在美投资将突破万亿澳元- 2025.03.09 分析师：徐一洲 S0190521060001 xuyizhou@xyzq.com.cn 研究助理：李思倩 lisiqian@xyzq.com.cn 资产管理产业链跟踪十一：全球被动化发展进 程行至何处？ 投资要点： | 一、 美国：主动基金超额收益收敛和独立投顾兴起共振 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 二、 日本：央行宽松货币政策成为被动化发展主导力量 | 7 | | 三、 中国台湾：低利率环境下以 ETF 为财富存储工具 | 10 | | 四、 韩国：风险偏好两极化为杠铃两端产品孕育土壤 | 14 | | 五、 中国：窄基和宽基交替推动 ETF 步入发展黄 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of fertility subsidy policies since 2023, which are expected to boost children's clothing consumption [11][15] - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" was released, aiming to enhance consumer spending through various measures, including increased income and support for service consumption [16][18] - The textile and apparel sector is experiencing a recovery, with a focus on brand apparel and textile manufacturing, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [4][21] Summary by Sections 1. Fertility Subsidy Policy - The report outlines various fertility-related policies implemented at national and local levels, indicating a trend towards increased financial support for families [11][15] - Specific examples include one-time subsidies for childbirth and monthly allowances for child-rearing in regions like Ningxia and Hohhot [11][15] 2. Consumption Promotion Plan - The plan consists of eight chapters focusing on income growth, consumer capacity support, and improving the consumption environment [16] - It emphasizes the importance of enhancing consumer confidence and spending, particularly in the textile and apparel sectors [16][18] 3. Market Review - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with a weekly increase of 3.17% compared to 1.59% for the index [21] - Key stocks in the sector showed varied performance, with notable gains in companies like Meirya and Annail [21] 4. Raw Material Prices and Industry Tracking - Cotton prices are reported at 14,919 RMB per ton, with a weekly increase of 0.24%, while nylon POY prices decreased by 1.06% to 14,025 RMB per ton [27][28] - The report tracks export data, indicating a 17.4% year-on-year increase in yarn and product exports from China [32][36] 5. Domestic and Overseas Apparel Consumption - Domestic retail sales showed a 3.7% year-on-year increase, while apparel sales experienced a slight decline of 0.3% [38] - The report also highlights the growth in U.S. apparel wholesale sales, which increased by 8% year-on-year [40][42]

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the textile and apparel industry, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 [1]. - The implementation of various consumer stimulus policies, including increased birth subsidies, is expected to boost consumption in the textile and apparel sector [3][15]. - The textile manufacturing segment is actively expanding into new materials and technologies, which may enhance growth prospects [3][17]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The acceleration of birth subsidy policies since 2023 is expected to benefit children's clothing consumption, with specific companies like Semir Apparel and Jin Hong Group recommended for investment [3][10]. - The "Consumption Promotion Action Plan" released on March 16, 2025, aims to enhance consumer spending through various measures, including increasing birth subsidies and improving service consumption [15][17]. - The report highlights that low-tier cities may see new commercial opportunities due to urban consumption facility improvements, suggesting investment in companies like Hailan Home [3][17]. Group 2: Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with a weekly increase of 3.17% compared to 1.59% for the index, indicating strong market momentum [20][21]. - The report notes that the textile manufacturing and brand apparel segments achieved respective weekly gains of 2.39% and 3.79% [20]. - Key stocks that performed well include Meierya and Annail, while companies like Nanshan Zhishang faced declines [20][21]. Group 3: Raw Material Trends - Cotton prices are stable, with a current spot price of 14,919 RMB per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.24% [27]. - The report indicates that the price of wool is on the rise, with the Australian Eastern Wool Index at 785 USD, up 2.61% week-on-week [28]. - Other raw materials, such as nylon POY and polyester POY, have shown slight declines in prices, indicating mixed trends in the raw material market [27][28]. Group 4: Export and Consumption Data - In December 2024, China's textile and apparel exports reached 13.135 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.4% [34]. - The report highlights that U.S. apparel wholesale sales in January 2025 were 13.839 billion USD, reflecting an 8% month-on-month increase [40]. - The retail sales index for the EU in January 2025 was reported at 101.60, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9% [44].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the construction and decoration industry, driven by increased government spending and infrastructure investment [3][4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the issuance of special bonds and an increase in the deficit ratio are expected to promote stable growth in infrastructure investment, which remains a crucial driver for economic stability [3][4]. - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 500 billion yuan, aimed at various investment projects [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market through targeted policies, including the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses, which is expected to boost demand for housing [4][6]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: debt reduction driving improvements in state-owned construction enterprises, the Belt and Road Initiative accelerating international engineering projects, and high-dividend state-owned construction enterprises presenting attractive investment opportunities [5][7][8]. Summary by Sections Important Events Tracking - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, with a focus on expanding effective investment [12]. - The report outlines plans for a more proactive fiscal policy, including a deficit target of 5.66 trillion yuan, up 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year [12]. Market Performance Tracking - The construction engineering sector (SW) experienced a decline of 0.22% from March 3 to March 7, 2025, while the overall A-share index rose by 2.43% [13][14]. - The report notes that the construction sector's PE (TTM) is 9.53, below its historical average, indicating potential undervaluation [17][20]. Industry Data Tracking - The report tracks the issuance of special bonds, noting that 609.76 billion yuan in new special bonds were issued by March 7, 2025, accounting for 13.86% of the annual plan [25][27]. - The report highlights that the majority of special bond funds are directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, as well as transportation projects [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. as a leading supplier in the global reducer market, suggesting active monitoring of the company's performance despite short-term financial pressures [3]. Core Insights - Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. has a strong historical presence in the motion control industry, with a focus on innovative products such as miniature reducers for humanoid robots and applications in aerospace and medical equipment [3]. - The company is expected to recover from a low point in its business cycle, with projected revenues of 55.8 billion JPY for FY2024, where reducer revenue constitutes approximately 70% of total income [3]. - The robotics segment is the largest contributor to the company's revenue, with expectations of a 4% CAGR in the industrial robot sector, while the Chinese robotics market is experiencing rapid growth [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. specializes in harmonic drive reducers, known for their lightweight, compact design, and high torque capacity, with a global sales presence [3][4]. Financial Performance - For FY2024, the company anticipates a revenue of 55.8 billion JPY, with an overall gross margin of about 28% and an operating profit target of 12.5 billion JPY for FY2026 [3]. - The company has seen a consistent increase in order data, indicating a gradual recovery from previous lows [3]. Market Dynamics - The company’s revenue composition for FY2024 includes 31% from robotics, 23% from automotive, and 15% from semiconductors, highlighting the importance of the robotics sector [3]. - The Chinese robotics market has grown significantly, with sales increasing from 140,000 units in 2019 to 277,000 units in 2023, and the company’s supply of reducers to local robotics has surged [3][8]. Order Data - The report provides detailed quarterly order data for various sectors, indicating a positive trend in new orders for robotics and other segments [9][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes Japan's response to "super-aging" with a focus on the deepening trends of population and labor force aging [5][10] - It highlights the establishment of a multi-tiered pension system to address aging challenges [10][16] - The Japan Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) is introduced, showcasing its efficient and transparent operational mechanism [17][19] Summary by Sections Section 1: Aging Population and Labor Force Trends - Japan's population aged 65 and above reached 28.6% in 2020, with projections indicating further increases [5][8] - The labor force is experiencing a decline, with a negative growth rate of -4.3‰ in 2020 [5] Section 2: Multi-Tiered Pension System - The report outlines the three pillars of Japan's pension system: National Pension, Employees' Pension Insurance, and Defined Contribution plans [14][15] - Coverage statistics indicate that 97.4% of the labor population is involved in the pension system [15] Section 3: Japan Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) - GPIF's investment strategy focuses on long-term returns while minimizing risks, with a target return of 1.7% [19][39] - The fund has achieved an annualized return of 8.8% since its inception in 2001, outperforming its target [39][44] - Asset allocation is primarily passive, with a balanced mix of domestic and foreign equities and bonds [49][66] Section 4: Risk Management and Investment Strategy - GPIF employs a diversified investment approach to enhance risk-return characteristics [19][30] - The fund has established a multi-manager strategy to optimize asset management and mitigate risks [30][33] Section 5: Performance Metrics - GPIF's performance metrics indicate a cumulative investment return of 245.98 billion yen from 2001 to 2023, with a significant portion attributed to equity investments [39][67] - The report notes a shift in asset allocation towards alternative investments, particularly in developed markets [71]

行业周报 | 建筑材料 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 相关研究 【兴证建材】周观点：淡季需求转弱，关 注玻璃左侧机会-2024.12.29 【兴证建材】周观点：淡季静待政策发酵， 关注行业底部机遇-2024.12.24 【兴证建材】周观点：地产利好政策持续 发力，关注玻璃底部机会-2024.12.15 S0190522100003 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/28 分析师：季贤东 jixiandong@xyzq.com.cn 施工旺季临近，关注建材提价行情 地产贝塔因素更为积极，积极布局零售建材先手。我们认为，随着新一轮地产利好政策 持续加码，对建材业绩至关重要的贝塔因素已经转向。从长期维度来看，消费建材龙头 企业依托渠道结构优化+零售品类拓展，实现经营质量和市场份额的持续提升，或将在 未来存量为主的市场中铸就长牛基础。基于此，我们认为消费建材拐点已现，建议积极 布局以获先手。从竞争格局来看，在零售市场占主导地位的消费建材龙头有望长期制胜， 推荐三棵树、东鹏控股、兔宝宝，建议关注北新建材、东方雨虹、伟星新材。 2024 年，水泥需求延续去年 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Great Wall Motors is focusing on steady progress in exports, particularly with the Tank series, while the Haval and Wey brands are undergoing updates to enhance their market presence [2] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 173.21 billion in 2023 to 310.26 billion in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.6% [3] - The net profit is expected to increase significantly from 7.02 billion in 2023 to 18.28 billion in 2026, with a notable growth of 81.0% in 2024 [3] - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 10.3% in 2023 to 18.6% in 2026 [3] Export Growth - The report indicates that Great Wall Motors is expanding its export markets, particularly in Russia, South America, and right-hand drive markets, with a focus on increasing sales volume [7] - The South American market is projected to reach approximately 5.15 million units in 2024, with Brazil being a key focus for expansion [8] Product Competitiveness - The Tank series is noted for its strong competitive edge in off-road capabilities, with the Hi4Z technology enhancing its performance [26] - The company has maintained a market share of over 45% in the pickup segment since 2022, with stable profitability from models like the Cannon and Windrunner [31] Brand Strategy - The report emphasizes that Haval and Wey brands are improving their margins through product adjustments and channel reforms, with new models expected to drive sales growth [37] - The company plans to increase its dealership network significantly, aiming for around 1,200 stores by the end of 2024, focusing on direct sales of Tank and Wey products [41]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Insights - The A-share electricity index increased by 1.77% during the period from March 10 to March 14, 2025, with a TTM PE valuation of 17.0x. The gas sector index rose by 1.72%, with a TTM PE valuation of 13.3x. The sub-sectors of electricity, including thermal, hydropower, and renewable energy, saw changes of +3.74%, +1.06%, and +1.28% respectively [1][2] - The Jiangsu offshore wind power project, the largest in terms of single unit capacity, has entered full construction phase, with a total investment of approximately 10.6 billion yuan, expected to be fully connected to the grid by 2025 [2][3] - The Southern regional electricity market is set to begin continuous settlement trial operations by the end of June 2025, as part of the national unified electricity market construction [2][3] Electricity Sector Summary - The coal price as of March 14, 2025, is 690 yuan/ton, down 1.43% from March 7. The coal inventory at Qinhuangdao port is 7.2 million tons, down 3.9% week-on-week but up 40.6% year-on-year [2][9] - The average utilization hours for thermal power in 2024 are projected to be 4,400 hours, a decrease of 66 hours compared to the previous year [19][21] - The total installed capacity of thermal power in China reached 1,444.45 GW by the end of 2024, with an additional 57.71 GW added during the year [15][19] Hydropower Sector Summary - The total installed capacity of hydropower in China reached 435.95 GW by the end of 2024, with an increase of 13.78 GW during the year. The hydropower generation for 2024 is expected to be 1,274.2 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [26][31] - The inflow and outflow rates of the Three Gorges Reservoir on March 14, 2025, were 0.85 and 0.78 million cubic meters per second, respectively, showing increases of 54.55% and 12.94% year-on-year [24][25] Renewable Energy Sector Summary - The total installed capacity for wind and solar energy in China reached 520.68 GW and 886.66 GW respectively by the end of 2024, with new installations of 79.34 GW for wind and 277.17 GW for solar during the year [36][41] - The price of domestic monocrystalline solar modules (PERC, 310W) is 0.70 yuan/watt, up 1.45% from March 7, 2025 [41][43] Gas Sector Summary - The LNG ex-factory price index in Shanghai as of March 14, 2025, is 4,557 yuan/ton, down 1.41% from March 7. The average ex-factory price for domestic gas is 4,303 yuan/ton, down 2.92% [50][53] - The national LNG import price is 13.45 USD/million BTU, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 54.46% [50][55]