Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintained)" [1] Core Insights - The report focuses on the non-bank financial sector, particularly pension management and investment strategies [6][7] - Key players in the pension management space include CalSTRS, Brookfield, and NYSRF, with specific investment strategies and performance metrics highlighted [8][9] Summary by Sections Pension Management - CalSTRS has implemented risk-mitigating strategies with a target return of 7.7% for 2024 [6] - Brookfield Wealth Solutions is noted for its significant assets under management, with a focus on occupational pension funds [7] Pension Investment - The report highlights various pension funds' performance, including CalSTRS at 7.7%, HOOPP at 9.7%, and 407 ETR at 7.51% [8][9] - The investment strategies of major pension funds are discussed, emphasizing their allocation to public equities and other asset classes [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the aerospace electronics sector, focusing on aerospace electronic information and unmanned systems equipment, with a significant emphasis on military products following the divestiture of its wire and cable business [3][9] - The demand for small and medium-sized drones is increasing, particularly in the context of modern warfare, where they play a crucial role in reconnaissance, attack, and communication [33][39] - The company has a comprehensive product line in small and medium-sized drones, with over 30 models across various categories, indicating a strong market position [51] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Aerospace Electronic Technology Co., Ltd., is the listed platform for the Ninth Research Institute of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, specializing in aerospace electronic technology [9] - The main business segments include aerospace electronic information and unmanned systems equipment, with a focus on military applications [10] Demand for Small and Medium-Sized Drones - The budget for small and medium-sized drones in the U.S. military procurement has increased significantly, especially post the Russia-Ukraine conflict, indicating a growing market opportunity [3][39] - The company is positioned to develop and produce small and medium-sized drones, having established a dedicated unit for this purpose [47] Financial Performance - The company expects a recovery in net profit from 2024 to 2026, with projected net profits of 602 million, 903 million, and 1.135 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [3] - The company's revenue and net profit have shown a compound annual growth rate of 8.10% and 3.47% from 2019 to 2023, respectively [24] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "Buy" rating based on the company's strong market position, growth potential in unmanned systems, and the expected increase in military spending on aerospace electronics [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, Aiyingshi (603214.SH) [1] Core Insights - Aiyingshi, a leading maternal and infant retail chain, is expanding into the trendy toy market in partnership with Bandai Namco, aiming to initiate a new growth cycle [2][3] - The company has been focusing on its core business, enhancing operational efficiency, and integrating acquisitions to achieve stable growth [3][5] - The report highlights the potential for growth driven by favorable government policies aimed at increasing birth rates, despite the current demographic challenges [3][5] Summary by Sections 1. Aiyingshi: Maternal and Infant Leader Entering Trendy Toy Market - Aiyingshi operates a comprehensive business model providing quality maternal and infant products and services, with a focus on member engagement [14] - The company has successfully integrated acquisitions to expand its market presence, with a total of 463 stores by September 2024 [14][18] 2. Growth Opportunities from Birth Policies - The report notes a significant decline in birth rates, with the national population decreasing for the first time since 1961, indicating a demographic challenge [43] - Government initiatives to enhance birth incentives are expected to provide a supportive environment for the company's growth [53][55] 3. Partnership with Bandai Namco - Aiyingshi has secured authorization from Bandai Namco to operate Gundam base stores, expanding into the trendy toy market [3][5] - The potential revenue from Gundam base stores is estimated to reach between 1.5 to 4.5 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 15% to 25% [3][5] 4. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to open new maternal and infant stores and trendy toy stores, with expected net profits of 1.09 billion yuan in 2024, increasing to 1.58 billion yuan by 2026 [3][5] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to grow from 0.79 yuan in 2024 to 1.14 yuan in 2026, reflecting a positive outlook for profitability [3][5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the fiscal paradigm of the EU and Germany, with significant military and infrastructure spending planned, suggesting a positive outlook for related sectors [7][25][38]. Core Insights - The EU and Germany are initiating a substantial fiscal expansion, driven by external threats and internal political instability, aiming to enhance defense capabilities and stimulate economic growth [7][20][25]. - The EU's "Rearm Europe" plan is projected to create €800 billion in fiscal support over four years, equivalent to 4.5% of the EU's nominal GDP in 2024 [25][31]. - Germany's proposed reforms include exemptions from debt brakes for defense spending exceeding 1% of GDP and a €500 billion infrastructure fund, potentially generating €1 trillion in economic stimulus over the next decade [38][39]. Summary by Sections 1. "All-Out Effort" Moment - The EU and Germany are responding to geopolitical pressures by significantly increasing defense spending, with the EU's military expansion plan expected to create €800 billion in fiscal space over four years [7][25]. - Internal political crises, including the rise of far-right movements and government instability in Germany, are pushing for a change in fiscal policy [20][22]. 2. Content and Progress of European Fiscal Expansion - The "Rearm Europe" plan allows member states to increase defense budgets without triggering excessive deficit procedures, potentially creating €6.5 billion in fiscal space [25][26]. - The German government is set to reform its debt brake, allowing for increased military and infrastructure spending, with a focus on modernizing various sectors [38][39]. 3. Economic and Asset Impact - Economic growth expectations are revised upward, with a potential 0.5% increase in real GDP for the Eurozone if fiscal expansion begins in Q2 [52]. - The market sentiment is shifting, with the need for catalysts to sustain the euro's appreciation and a focus on structural trends in the stock market, particularly in defense and industrial sectors [61][63]. 4. Challenges of European Fiscal Expansion - The ability of EU member states to execute fiscal expansion varies, with countries like France and Italy facing political resistance due to high debt levels [65]. - The effectiveness of military spending in stimulating economic growth is contingent on domestic production and innovation in the defense sector [70].

行业跟踪报告 | 非银金融 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 18 日 相关研究 【兴证非银】全球养老金图鉴：日本 篇，低利率背景下的出海之路- 2025.03.17 【兴证非银】2024H2 公募基金保有量点 评：指数基金成为保有规模增长胜负手- 2025.03.16 【兴证非银】海外养老金资讯跟踪半月 刊（250215-250228）：未来澳大利亚养 老金在美投资将突破万亿澳元- 2025.03.09 分析师：徐一洲 S0190521060001 xuyizhou@xyzq.com.cn 研究助理：李思倩 lisiqian@xyzq.com.cn 资产管理产业链跟踪十一：全球被动化发展进 程行至何处？ 投资要点： | 一、 美国：主动基金超额收益收敛和独立投顾兴起共振 | 4 | | --- | --- | | 二、 日本：央行宽松货币政策成为被动化发展主导力量 | 7 | | 三、 中国台湾：低利率环境下以 ETF 为财富存储工具 | 10 | | 四、 韩国：风险偏好两极化为杠铃两端产品孕育土壤 | 14 | | 五、 中国：窄基和宽基交替推动 ETF 步入发展黄 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of fertility subsidy policies since 2023, which are expected to boost children's clothing consumption [11][15] - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" was released, aiming to enhance consumer spending through various measures, including increased income and support for service consumption [16][18] - The textile and apparel sector is experiencing a recovery, with a focus on brand apparel and textile manufacturing, supported by favorable policies and market conditions [4][21] Summary by Sections 1. Fertility Subsidy Policy - The report outlines various fertility-related policies implemented at national and local levels, indicating a trend towards increased financial support for families [11][15] - Specific examples include one-time subsidies for childbirth and monthly allowances for child-rearing in regions like Ningxia and Hohhot [11][15] 2. Consumption Promotion Plan - The plan consists of eight chapters focusing on income growth, consumer capacity support, and improving the consumption environment [16] - It emphasizes the importance of enhancing consumer confidence and spending, particularly in the textile and apparel sectors [16][18] 3. Market Review - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with a weekly increase of 3.17% compared to 1.59% for the index [21] - Key stocks in the sector showed varied performance, with notable gains in companies like Meirya and Annail [21] 4. Raw Material Prices and Industry Tracking - Cotton prices are reported at 14,919 RMB per ton, with a weekly increase of 0.24%, while nylon POY prices decreased by 1.06% to 14,025 RMB per ton [27][28] - The report tracks export data, indicating a 17.4% year-on-year increase in yarn and product exports from China [32][36] 5. Domestic and Overseas Apparel Consumption - Domestic retail sales showed a 3.7% year-on-year increase, while apparel sales experienced a slight decline of 0.3% [38] - The report also highlights the growth in U.S. apparel wholesale sales, which increased by 8% year-on-year [40][42]

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the textile and apparel industry, indicating a positive outlook for 2025 [1]. - The implementation of various consumer stimulus policies, including increased birth subsidies, is expected to boost consumption in the textile and apparel sector [3][15]. - The textile manufacturing segment is actively expanding into new materials and technologies, which may enhance growth prospects [3][17]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The acceleration of birth subsidy policies since 2023 is expected to benefit children's clothing consumption, with specific companies like Semir Apparel and Jin Hong Group recommended for investment [3][10]. - The "Consumption Promotion Action Plan" released on March 16, 2025, aims to enhance consumer spending through various measures, including increasing birth subsidies and improving service consumption [15][17]. - The report highlights that low-tier cities may see new commercial opportunities due to urban consumption facility improvements, suggesting investment in companies like Hailan Home [3][17]. Group 2: Market Performance - The textile and apparel sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, with a weekly increase of 3.17% compared to 1.59% for the index, indicating strong market momentum [20][21]. - The report notes that the textile manufacturing and brand apparel segments achieved respective weekly gains of 2.39% and 3.79% [20]. - Key stocks that performed well include Meierya and Annail, while companies like Nanshan Zhishang faced declines [20][21]. Group 3: Raw Material Trends - Cotton prices are stable, with a current spot price of 14,919 RMB per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.24% [27]. - The report indicates that the price of wool is on the rise, with the Australian Eastern Wool Index at 785 USD, up 2.61% week-on-week [28]. - Other raw materials, such as nylon POY and polyester POY, have shown slight declines in prices, indicating mixed trends in the raw material market [27][28]. Group 4: Export and Consumption Data - In December 2024, China's textile and apparel exports reached 13.135 billion USD, marking a year-on-year increase of 17.4% [34]. - The report highlights that U.S. apparel wholesale sales in January 2025 were 13.839 billion USD, reflecting an 8% month-on-month increase [40]. - The retail sales index for the EU in January 2025 was reported at 101.60, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9% [44].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the construction and decoration industry, driven by increased government spending and infrastructure investment [3][4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the issuance of special bonds and an increase in the deficit ratio are expected to promote stable growth in infrastructure investment, which remains a crucial driver for economic stability [3][4]. - The government plans to issue 4.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 500 billion yuan, aimed at various investment projects [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the real estate market through targeted policies, including the renovation of urban villages and dilapidated houses, which is expected to boost demand for housing [4][6]. - The report identifies three main investment themes: debt reduction driving improvements in state-owned construction enterprises, the Belt and Road Initiative accelerating international engineering projects, and high-dividend state-owned construction enterprises presenting attractive investment opportunities [5][7][8]. Summary by Sections Important Events Tracking - The government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, with a focus on expanding effective investment [12]. - The report outlines plans for a more proactive fiscal policy, including a deficit target of 5.66 trillion yuan, up 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year [12]. Market Performance Tracking - The construction engineering sector (SW) experienced a decline of 0.22% from March 3 to March 7, 2025, while the overall A-share index rose by 2.43% [13][14]. - The report notes that the construction sector's PE (TTM) is 9.53, below its historical average, indicating potential undervaluation [17][20]. Industry Data Tracking - The report tracks the issuance of special bonds, noting that 609.76 billion yuan in new special bonds were issued by March 7, 2025, accounting for 13.86% of the annual plan [25][27]. - The report highlights that the majority of special bond funds are directed towards municipal and industrial park infrastructure, as well as transportation projects [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. as a leading supplier in the global reducer market, suggesting active monitoring of the company's performance despite short-term financial pressures [3]. Core Insights - Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. has a strong historical presence in the motion control industry, with a focus on innovative products such as miniature reducers for humanoid robots and applications in aerospace and medical equipment [3]. - The company is expected to recover from a low point in its business cycle, with projected revenues of 55.8 billion JPY for FY2024, where reducer revenue constitutes approximately 70% of total income [3]. - The robotics segment is the largest contributor to the company's revenue, with expectations of a 4% CAGR in the industrial robot sector, while the Chinese robotics market is experiencing rapid growth [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Harmonic Drive Systems Inc. specializes in harmonic drive reducers, known for their lightweight, compact design, and high torque capacity, with a global sales presence [3][4]. Financial Performance - For FY2024, the company anticipates a revenue of 55.8 billion JPY, with an overall gross margin of about 28% and an operating profit target of 12.5 billion JPY for FY2026 [3]. - The company has seen a consistent increase in order data, indicating a gradual recovery from previous lows [3]. Market Dynamics - The company’s revenue composition for FY2024 includes 31% from robotics, 23% from automotive, and 15% from semiconductors, highlighting the importance of the robotics sector [3]. - The Chinese robotics market has grown significantly, with sales increasing from 140,000 units in 2019 to 277,000 units in 2023, and the company’s supply of reducers to local robotics has surged [3][8]. Order Data - The report provides detailed quarterly order data for various sectors, indicating a positive trend in new orders for robotics and other segments [9][10].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes Japan's response to "super-aging" with a focus on the deepening trends of population and labor force aging [5][10] - It highlights the establishment of a multi-tiered pension system to address aging challenges [10][16] - The Japan Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) is introduced, showcasing its efficient and transparent operational mechanism [17][19] Summary by Sections Section 1: Aging Population and Labor Force Trends - Japan's population aged 65 and above reached 28.6% in 2020, with projections indicating further increases [5][8] - The labor force is experiencing a decline, with a negative growth rate of -4.3‰ in 2020 [5] Section 2: Multi-Tiered Pension System - The report outlines the three pillars of Japan's pension system: National Pension, Employees' Pension Insurance, and Defined Contribution plans [14][15] - Coverage statistics indicate that 97.4% of the labor population is involved in the pension system [15] Section 3: Japan Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) - GPIF's investment strategy focuses on long-term returns while minimizing risks, with a target return of 1.7% [19][39] - The fund has achieved an annualized return of 8.8% since its inception in 2001, outperforming its target [39][44] - Asset allocation is primarily passive, with a balanced mix of domestic and foreign equities and bonds [49][66] Section 4: Risk Management and Investment Strategy - GPIF employs a diversified investment approach to enhance risk-return characteristics [19][30] - The fund has established a multi-manager strategy to optimize asset management and mitigate risks [30][33] Section 5: Performance Metrics - GPIF's performance metrics indicate a cumulative investment return of 245.98 billion yen from 2001 to 2023, with a significant portion attributed to equity investments [39][67] - The report notes a shift in asset allocation towards alternative investments, particularly in developed markets [71]