证券研究报告 目 录 CATALOGUE 生产投资向好，地产成交回暖 地产 消费 价格 生产&基建 出行 04 05 01 02 03 00 政策 中观数据周报 投资要点 KEY POINTS 1 • 国内政策：专项债收储工作规范明确；发展消费金融提振消费。中央层面，国务院常务会议讨论通过《国务院2025年重点工作分工方 案》，李强总理在国务院第八次全体会议上强调更加注重加大政策力度和激发市场力量良性互动、协同发力。实施好更加积极有为的宏 观政策。产业层面，《促进环保装备制造业高质量发展若干意见》印发。金融财税层面，自然资源部就做好运用地方政府专项债券支持 土地储备有关工作出台通知，在发债要求、申报审核等方面做出明确要求。国家金融监督管理总局要求金融机构大力发展消费金融，助 力提振消费。 • 生产&基建：高频指标呈现向好态势。本周高炉、螺纹钢、涤纶长丝开工率持续提高，PTA、沥青开工率反弹，动力煤日耗相对稳定，但 建筑资金到位率仍处于低位。总体上看生产、基建相关高频指标有向好趋势。 • 地产：新房、二手房成交回暖。本周30城新房成交面积季节性回升，一线城市回升明显。9城二手房成交面积短暂回落后转向上行，体现 ...

行业周报 | 煤炭 证券研究报告 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 03 16 相关研究 2025.3.2- 2025.3.8 -2025.03.09 2025 - 2025.03.05 2025.2.23- 2025.3.1 -2025.03.02 分析师：王锟 S0190521010002 wangkun89@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：李冉冉 S0190525010002 liranran@xyzq.com.cn 煤炭行业周报（2025.3.9-2025.3.15）—— 产地煤价回升，静待非电需求复苏 投资要点： 3 9 2742.0 880.3/1211.4/650.3 -1.9/+6.8/-5.0 ⚫ 3 14 1400 / 20 / 1430 / 5# 870 / 5# 1050 / 5 / 3 14 1241 / 43 / 1371 / 21 / 130 / 22 / ⚫ 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/14 ⚫ ⚫ | | 4 | | --- | --- | | | 4 | | | 8 | | | 9 | | | 10 | | 11 | | | 2025.3.10-2025.3.14 | ...

证券研究报告 | 海外宏观 【兴证宏观 | 经济脉搏】海外周报 2025.03.10-2025.03.16 风险偏好下降 分 析 师：.段 超（S0190516070004） 卓 泓（S0190519070002） 研究助理：王祉凝 报告日期：2025年3月16日 投资要点 KEY POINTS 美国：经济软指标继续降温但就业暂保持韧性，美元与美债利率继续震荡，关税不确定性压制美股。周三发布的美国CPI全面弱于预期后，市场对 滞胀担忧或有所缓和，推动美债利率、美元上涨；后半周公布的初请失业金人数下降，绝对水平仍较低，3月消费者信心指数继续下滑。2月末3月 初市场的衰退担忧暂缓，美元与美债利率横盘震荡；而关税不稳定性继续抑制风险偏好，美股下跌、黄金上涨，现货黄金一度涨破3000美元/盎司。 政策反复与政府裁员动摇居民收入和企业投资预期，美国经济短期内或继续偏弱运行，但由于失业率等硬指标仍存韧性，市场对下周FOMC会议上 降息预期微弱，关注新一期点阵图对未来通胀、利率走势的指引以及鲍威尔表态。财政方面，截至周五，众议院提出的新一版持续决议（用于将联 邦政府自由裁量支出维持到本财年结束，详参《 美国财政整顿 》）赶 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the coal industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal prices in production areas have rebounded, while seasonal declines in daily consumption are observed. The industry is awaiting a recovery in non-electricity demand [6] - The prices of coking coal and coke are under downward pressure [20] - Steel production remains stable, but downstream steel prices continue to decline [25] - Futures prices for coking coal have slightly rebounded, and the price gap between coking coal and coke has narrowed [29] - Shipping rates for both sea and land transport continue to rise [32] Weekly Data Tracking - **Thermal Coal**: Production area coal prices have increased, with daily consumption showing seasonal decline [6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices are under pressure, with specific price data indicating fluctuations [20] - **Downstream Changes**: Daily average pig iron production across 247 sample steel mills is stable, but steel prices are decreasing [25] - **Futures Market**: Coking coal futures prices have seen a slight increase, indicating a narrowing price gap [29] - **Transportation Situation**: Both sea and land freight rates are on the rise, reflecting increased transportation costs [32] Weekly Market Review - The report provides a performance overview of major indices and coal-related stocks, highlighting a 4.97% increase in the coal sector [37] - Specific stock performances include significant weekly gains for companies such as Daya Energy and Meijin Energy [37] Weekly Perspectives - The report includes detailed stock ratings and price targets for various coal companies, indicating a mix of "Buy" and "Increase" ratings [40]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector continues to show strong performance, with notable increases in stock prices for companies such as Kerry Properties (+7.5%), Swire Properties (+6.5%), and Link REIT (+2.1%) [3][4] - The report highlights a significant policy support from the central government aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including measures to lower reserve requirements and interest rates, as well as adjustments to housing purchase restrictions [3][40] - The report recommends focusing on real estate and property management sectors, specifically suggesting stocks like Beike, Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and others for investment [3][41] Market Overview - The main indices showed varied performance, with the Hang Seng Property Index declining by 0.9% this week, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.1% [7] - The cumulative sales area in 30 major cities reached 3.13 million square meters in March 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [34] Company Performance - Notable performers in the domestic property sector include China Jinmao (+8.5%), Shenzhen Holdings (+5.9%), and Greentown China (+3.4%) [8][9] - In the property management sector, Greentown Service (+3.6%), New City Joy Service (+3.5%), and Greentown Management (+2.8%) showed strong performance [11][12] Stock Holdings and Short Selling - The report indicates an increase in Hong Kong Stock Connect holdings for companies like Greentown China and Sunac China, with respective increases of 0.50 percentage points [13][16] - The top three companies by short selling volume in the property management sector were Beike, Greentown Management, and China Overseas Development, with short selling ratios of 34.5%, 30.2%, and 27.6% respectively [19][20] Policy Support - The central government's recent meetings emphasized the need for stronger support for the real estate market, including a combination of fiscal and monetary policies aimed at stabilizing the market [3][40] - The report anticipates further policies to promote a stable and healthy development of the real estate market [40][41]

行业周报 | 轻工制造 证券研究报告 | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | 相关研究 【兴证轻工】轻工 AI+专题（一）：AI 风 口到来，轻工领域有哪些投资机遇？- 2025.03.14 【兴证轻工】周观点：两会释放政策端 积极信号，看好内需消费主线稳中求进- 2025.03.09 【兴证轻工】周观点：木浆系浆纸价格 延续上行，建议积极关注两会与三八大 促进展-2025.03.02 分析师：林寰宇 S0190524080006 linhuanyu@xyzq.com.cn 研究助理：储天舒 chutianshu1@xyzq.com.cn 周观点：家居国补陆续展开，继续看好内需消 费主线 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/11 | 图 1、 | 本周轻工制造指数跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.18pct | | 3 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 图 2、 | 本周轻工各子行业表现 | | 3 | | | | | 图 3、 | 本周轻工个股涨跌幅前 ...

相关研究 【兴证海外地产】海外地产周报 （2025.03.03-2025.03.09）：地产板块继 续表现强势-2025.03.09 海外行业周报 | 地产建筑业 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 【兴证海外地产社服】海外地产周报 （2025.02.24-2025.03.02）：地产板块接 力上涨-2025.03.02 【兴证海外地产】海外地产周报 （2025.02.17-2025.02.23）：2 月 LPR 维持不变-2025.02.23 分析师：宋健 S0190518010002 BMV912 songjian@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：严宁馨 S0190521010001 请注意: 严宁馨并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 yanningxin@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：孙钟涟 S0190521080001 请注意: 孙钟涟并非香港证券及期货事务 监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从 事受监管的活动。 sunzhonglian@xyzq.com.cn 海外地产周报（2025.03.10-2025.0 ...

行业周报 | 电力设备 证券研究报告 【兴证电新】积极布局固态电池、AIDC 电气、人形机器人三条主线-2025.03.02 【兴证海外新能源】行业跟踪报告：光 伏供给侧有望出清，行业拐点可期- 2025.02.24 分析师：王帅 S0190521110001 wangshuai21@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：武圣豪 S0190524030007 wushenghao@xyzq.com.cn 英伟达年度 GTC 大会在即，有望助力 AIDC 电气景气度 | 行业评级 | 推荐（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 03 月 16 日 | 相关研究 【兴证电新】继续深耕三大未来产业— —固态电池、AIDC 电气、人形机器人- 2025.03.09 投资要点： 推荐标的 | AIDC 电气设备 明阳电气、金盘科技、科士达 | | | --- | --- | | 机器人 | 科达利 | | 锂电 | 宁德时代、亿纬锂能、科达利、中伟股份、璞泰来、特锐德、厦钨新能 | | 电力设备 | 许继电气、平高电气、中国西电、思源电气、明阳电气、望变电气 | | 光伏 | 通威股份，阿特 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the positive momentum in the real estate market, with key cities showing improved transaction volumes and price stability [4] - The introduction of national subsidies for home furnishings is expected to boost demand, with leading companies like Oppein and Sophia participating [4] - The report suggests that the home furnishing sector is currently undervalued, with a price-to-earnings ratio between 10-15x, and anticipates a recovery in performance for leading companies [4] - In the paper industry, prices for various types of paper are experiencing fluctuations, with some categories seeing price increases due to rising costs and demand recovery [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI technology in the home furnishing sector, recommending companies that are integrating AI into their products [4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The light industry sector outperformed the market, with a weekly increase of 1.76% compared to the 1.59% rise in the CSI 300 index [6] - Sub-sectors such as home furnishings and paper showed positive performance, with home furnishings up by 2.66% [6] 2. Paper Sector Tracking - The average price of waste paper is 1522 CNY/ton, up 1.7% week-on-week [14] - Prices for various paper products, including corrugated paper and boxboard, have shown slight declines, while cultural paper prices have seen some increases [18][25] 3. Home Furnishing Sector Tracking - The report notes a significant drop in housing transactions in major cities, with a 28.78% decrease in sales [28] - Retail sales in the home furnishing sector reached 100.5 billion CNY in February 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.6% [36] 4. Other Sector Tracking - The report provides insights into the performance of various commodities, including oil and polyethylene, with Brent crude oil priced at 70.05 USD/barrel [45][47]

行业周报 | 建筑材料 证券研究报告 行业评级 推荐（维持） 报告日期 2025 年 03 月 16 日 【兴证建材】周观点：淡季静待政策发酵， 关注行业底部机遇-2024.12.24 【兴证建材】周观点：地产利好政策持续 发力，关注玻璃底部机会-2024.12.15 S0190522100003 投资要点： 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1/28 分析师：季贤东 jixiandong@xyzq.com.cn 施工旺季临近，关注建材提价行情 地产贝塔因素更为积极，积极布局零售建材先手。我们认为，随着新一轮地产利好政策 持续加码，对建材业绩至关重要的贝塔因素已经转向。从长期维度来看，消费建材龙头 企业依托渠道结构优化+零售品类拓展，实现经营质量和市场份额的持续提升，或将在 未来存量为主的市场中铸就长牛基础。基于此，我们认为消费建材拐点已现，建议积极 布局以获先手。从竞争格局来看，在零售市场占主导地位的消费建材龙头有望长期制胜， 推荐三棵树、东鹏控股、兔宝宝，建议关注北新建材、东方雨虹、伟星新材。 2024 年，水泥需求延续去年下滑态势，供需矛盾持续加剧，水泥价格重心继续下移。 展望 2025 年，我们认为，在地 ...