Domestic Market Insights - The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China approved a decision to deepen ecological civilization reforms, emphasizing the establishment of a green and low-carbon development mechanism[1] - The plan includes implementing financial, investment, and pricing policies to support green and low-carbon development, aiming to optimize government procurement and improve the green tax system[13] International Market Developments - The UK government mandated that 2% of all jet fuel must be sustainable starting January 1, 2025, with targets to increase this to 10% by 2030 and 22% by 2040[5] - Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is projected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 85% compared to traditional fuels, although supply and cost challenges remain[37] ESG Index Performance - The top-performing ESG index for the week was the 中证 ECPI ESG 可持续发展 40 Index, achieving an excess return of 1.53%[26] - Among the top 10 ESG indices, 5 were ESG leading and 5 were ESG integrated, indicating a balanced performance across strategies[26] ESG Bond Market Dynamics - A total of 31 new ESG-related bonds were issued during the week, with a planned issuance scale of CNY 27.604 billion and an actual issuance of CNY 26.804 billion[29] - The existing ESG bond market comprises 7,165 bonds with a total balance of CNY 13,235.966 billion, with green bonds making up 66.36% of the total[59] Risk Factors - There are concerns regarding incomplete ESG-related information disclosure and the potential for ESG policies to be implemented slower than expected[7]

撰写日期：2024 年 07 月 29 日 策略周报（20240722-20240726） 7 月 25 日，《关于加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干 措施》发布。1）家电以旧换新补贴力度大幅提升。本轮中央支持力度由此 前的 80%提升至 90%，同时目前家电正直换新高峰期，预计在新一轮的刺激 下将显著刺激需求。2）汽车以旧换新政策力度加大。本轮乘用车以旧换新 补贴力度翻倍，预计将助力下半年乘用车销量边际向上。 过去一周资金流入趋势有所放缓，净流入 203.41 亿元，较上期大幅下 降 90.49%，其主要原因为资金供给大幅下滑。随着股票分红季接近尾声， 本周股票分红数额大幅降低至 657.14 亿元，为资金供给回落主要原因。资 金需求为 704.71 亿元，同比上升 51.65%。 ⚫ 风格板块流动性跟踪 本周仅周期与稳定风格板块北向资金小幅净流入 16.50 亿元与 7.73 亿元，其余三大风格板块延续此前流出态势。本周五大风格指数均呈现下 跌态势。近一周周期、消费与成长板块的日均成交额占比与日均换手率相比 于中长期均出现回落，交投情绪与市场热度有所下降。 麦高证券 研究发展部 策略周报 | - ...

风险提示：量化结论基于历史统计，如若未来市场环境发生变化时，存在失效风险。 【重要声明】 本公司与作者在自身所知情范围内，与本报告中所评价或推荐的证券不存在法律法规要求披 露或采取限制、静默措施的利益冲突。本公司或关联机构可能会持有报告中提到的公司所发行的 证券并进行交易，并在法律许可的情况下不进行披露；可能为这些公司提供或争取提供投资银行 或财务顾问服务。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|--------|--------------------|-------|-------|---------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | 沈阳 | | | | 上海 | | 地址 | | | 沈阳市沈河区热闹路 | | | 上海市浦东新区滨江大道 257 弄 10 号 | | 邮编 | | 110014 | | | | 陆家嘴滨江中心 T1 座 801 室 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|- ...

Price Trends - As of July 26, 2024, Shanghai gold price closed at 555.50 CNY per gram, with a weekly decline of 1.14%[1] - COMEX gold closed at 2,386.70 USD per ounce, down 0.51% for the week[1] - London spot gold was priced at 2,386.10 USD per ounce, reflecting a weekly drop of 0.72%[1] Investment Outlook - Long-term investment opportunities in gold remain favorable due to potential shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy, with expectations of a downward trend in long-term U.S. Treasury yields[2] - Global political and economic risks are increasing, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset[2] - Uncertainties in the global economy and geopolitical landscape are likely to support gold prices through heightened risk aversion[2] ETF Holdings - As of July 26, 2024, SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 3.16 tons to approximately 843.17 tons[8] - iShares Gold ETF holdings rose by 1.41 tons, totaling around 381.45 tons[8] Market Sentiment - The S&P 500 volatility index (VIX) recorded 16.39 points, a decrease of 0.13 points from the previous week, indicating reduced market panic[11] - As of July 26, 2024, the market's expectation for a July interest rate cut stands at 6.20%, with a 93.80% probability of maintaining current rates[30]

证券研究报告—宏观研究周报 撰写日期：2024 年 07 月 30 日 7 月 25 日，为维护月末银行体系流动性合理充裕，人民银行以固定利 率、数量招标方式开展了 2351 亿元逆回购操作。此外，以利率招标方式开 展 2000 亿元中期借贷便利（MLF）操作,中标利率为 2.3%，较前次下降了 20BP。同天，为了调解净息差逐步收窄的压力，六大国有银行下调存款利 率，此次下调与央行此前的降息密切相关。二十届三中全会后各中央部委 积极响应号召，出台各项宏观政策，助力经济高质量发展。 麦高证券 研究发展部 分析师：钟奕昕 资格证书：S0650524030001 联系邮箱：zhongyixin@mgzq.com 联系电话：15800464258 《黄金周度观察——2024 年第 31 周》 2024.07.29 《宏观市场周报（20240722- 20240728）》2024.07.29 《宏观市场周报（20240715- 20240719）》2024.07.24 《央行降息加大逆周期调节，稳增长政 策继续发力宏观经济高频数据周报 （2024 年 7 月 15 日-7 月 21 日）》 2024.07.24 | ...

证券研究报告—流动性跟踪周报 撰写日期：2024 年 07 月 29 日 流动性跟踪周报（20240720-20240726） 摘要 上周（2024 年 7 月 20 日—2024 年 7 月 26 日）央行公开市场净投放 17.50 亿元，其中 7 天逆回购 9847.50 亿元，7 天逆回购到期 11830 亿元， 逆回购到期维持 1.80%利率水平；本周（2024 年 7 月 27 日—2024 年 8 月 2 日）央行公开市场净回笼 9847.50 亿元，其中 7 天逆回购到期 9847.50 亿 元。 R001 均值为 1.80%，较前一周下行 14.00BP，DR001 均值为 1.73%， 较前一周下行 16.00BP。DR007 加权均价的均值为 1.82%，较前一周下行 6.00BP。R007 加权均价的均值为 1.91%，与前一周基本持平。二者收盘价利 差（R007-DR007）收于 7BP，较前一周上行 2BP。交易所回购利率上行，GC007 均值为 1.92%，较前一周上行 4.00BP。 上周同业存单到期量增加，为 8048.20 亿元（前一周为 5735.40 亿 元），发行数量有 ...

Domestic Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of interest rate cuts, reducing the 1-year and 5-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 basis points to 3.35% and 3.85% respectively, marking the second adjustment this year[14] - The PBOC also conducted a rare month-end Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, injecting 200 billion yuan at a rate of 2.30%, down 20 basis points, the first cut since August 2023[21] - In the first half of 2024, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises reached 35,110.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%[23] Market Performance - Major indices in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets experienced a downward adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 3.07% to 2,890.90 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index down 3.44% to 8,597.17 points[26] - Average daily trading volume remained low at over 600 billion yuan, with northbound capital seeing a significant outflow of 11.417 billion yuan[34] - The market is expected to continue its volatile trend, influenced by upcoming policy support from the Central Political Bureau meeting and the release of semi-annual reports in August[34] International Economic Context - The U.S. second-quarter GDP annualized growth rate was reported at 2.8%, exceeding market expectations of 2%[25] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index in the U.S. rose by 2.9% in the second quarter, with June's year-on-year increase holding steady at 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021[25] - The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting concluded with commitments to enhance international tax cooperation and address global challenges[26]

Group 1: Market Operations - The central bank's net injection in the open market last week was 1.75 billion yuan, while this week saw a net withdrawal of 98.475 billion yuan[1] - The 7-day reverse repo maturity was 118.3 billion yuan, maintaining an interest rate of 1.80%[8] - The total issuance of interbank certificates of deposit was 800.85 billion yuan, with an average coupon rate declining to 1.94%[12] Group 2: Interest Rates and Spreads - The average R001 rate was 1.80%, down 14 basis points from the previous week, while the DR001 rate was 1.73%, down 16 basis points[11] - The weighted average of DR007 was 1.82%, down 6 basis points, and R007 was 1.91%, remaining stable[11] - The spread between R007 and DR007 closed at 7 basis points, up 2 basis points from the previous week[11] Group 3: Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy exceeding expectations and financial regulation being more stringent than anticipated[53]

Profit Growth - In the first half of 2024, the cumulative year-on-year profit growth rate of industrial enterprises increased by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5% compared to the first five months[1] - The profit growth rate for June alone was 3.6%, up by 2.9 percentage points from the previous month[1] Revenue and Inventory - The cumulative year-on-year revenue growth rate for industrial enterprises in the first half of 2024 was 2.9%, consistent with the growth rate from January to May, indicating stable profitability[2] - The year-on-year growth rate of finished goods inventory was 4.7%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points, marking six consecutive months of recovery[2] Industry Performance - Manufacturing profits grew by 5.0% year-on-year, while mining profits remained in negative territory but improved by 5.4 percentage points to -10.8%[10] - The water, electricity, gas, and heating industries saw a profit growth of 23.1%, despite a decline of 6.4 percentage points from previous values[10] Accounts Receivable - Accounts receivable increased by 8.6% year-on-year, with the average collection period extending to 66.2 days, which is historically high[2][44] Economic Outlook - The overall industrial enterprise performance remains strong, but insufficient effective demand poses a significant challenge[46] - Central government policies are expected to enhance market demand gradually, with industrial profits likely to stabilize and improve in the second half of the year[46]

撰写日期：2024 年 07 月 29 日 1. 央行打出"降息"组合拳，加大金融支持实体经济力度。 2. 央行罕见月末增开 MLF，利率下调 20 个基点。 3. 人民币对美元 7 月 25 日突然大涨，在岸、离岸人民币涨幅超 600 个基点，随后有所回落。 4. 国家统计局公布上半年全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 35110.3 亿元。 上周沪深两市周初连续四天向下调整，周五反弹，全周各主要指数均 收跌，两市收出调整的周阴线，量能方面持续萎缩，日均成交量维持在 6000 亿以上的较低水平，北向资金仍然大幅流出，目前来看市场仍缺乏增 量资金，市场调整的主要原因可能是受全球股市的拖累。上周，美国出台 了核心 PCE 物价指数数据，二季度上升 2.9%，其中 6 月份同比升幅持平于 2.6%，为 2021 年 3 月以来最低水平，整体 PCE 数据也为五个月以来最低水 平，受此影响，美联储 9 月加息预期增强，从而拖累美股及美元的走势， 外围市场的走弱波及 A 股走势。但从国内方面来看，上周央行分别调降了 1 年期和 5 年期 LPR 利率 10 个基点，同时在月末罕见增开 MLF，利率调降 20 个基点，满 ...