Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" [2] Core Viewpoints - Domestic power investment continues to grow, and overseas exports remain strong. In the first ten months of 2023, national power and grid investment maintained rapid growth, with power generation project investments reaching 718.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, and grid project investments reaching 450.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.7% [4][5] - The expected investment by the State Grid Corporation in 2024 is projected to reach 600 billion yuan, an increase of 71.1 billion yuan year-on-year, marking a historical high. This investment will focus on ultra-high voltage projects, enhancing connections between county-level grids and the larger grid, and upgrading grid digitalization and intelligence [4][5] - The new installed capacity of power generation equipment in the first ten months of 2023 was 279 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, with solar power equipment contributing 181 million kilowatts, a 27.2% increase [5] Summary by Sections Investment Trends - In the first ten months of 2023, the total investment in power generation and grid projects was 1,168.3 billion yuan, with significant year-on-year growth in both sectors [4][5] - The investment in power generation equipment is expected to continue to rise, driven by the increasing demand for renewable energy sources [5] Export Dynamics - Solar cell exports in the first ten months of 2023 amounted to 26.84 billion USD, a year-on-year decrease of 31.6%, while the quantity exported increased by 32% [6][9] - Transformer exports reached 5.29 billion USD, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 27.42% [9][10] Key Companies to Watch - Weisheng Information (688100) is highlighted for its strong growth in electric meter exports [10] - Jinbei Electric (002533) is noted for its leadership in electromagnetic wire production, benefiting from transformer exports and electric vehicle sales [10] - Changgao Electric (002452) is recognized for its advancements in high-voltage products and a full order book [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In Line with the Market" [2] Core Viewpoints - In October 2024, the total electricity consumption reached 774.2 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, but a decline of 4.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year [5] - The warm weather in October 2024 led to a slowdown in electricity consumption growth, with the average national temperature being 11.6°C, which is 1.0°C higher than the same period in previous years [6] - For the first ten months of 2024, total electricity consumption was 8183.6 billion kWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, which is an improvement of 1.8 percentage points compared to the previous year [7] Summary by Sections Investment Ratings for Key Stocks - Yunnan Energy Investment: EPS of 0.64, 2023 PE of 18.44, 2024E PE of 11.92, rated "Increase" [2] - Sheneng Co., Ltd.: EPS of 0.81, 2023 PE of 10.48, 2024E PE of 9.33, rated "Buy" [2] - Zhongmin Energy: EPS of 0.36, 2023 PE of 17.34, 2024E PE of 13.12, rated "Buy" [2] Electricity Consumption Analysis - Breakdown of electricity consumption in October 2024: - Primary industry: 10.6 billion kWh (+5.1% YoY) - Secondary industry: 533.7 billion kWh (+2.7% YoY) - Tertiary industry: 136.7 billion kWh (+8.4% YoY) - Urban and rural residential consumption: 93.2 billion kWh (+8.1% YoY) [5] Recommendations - Focus on thermal power: Recommend stable performance companies like Zhejiang Energy, Anhui Energy, and Sheneng Co., Ltd. for the winter peak season [7] - Hydropower recommendations include Guotou Power, Chuan Investment Energy, and Huaneng Hydropower [7] - Nuclear power recommendations include China Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [7] - New energy recommendations include Yunnan Energy Investment and Zhongmin Energy [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market has shown a downward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3267.19, down 3.06%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10438.72, down 3.52% [1] - The total market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 620360 billion, with a PE ratio of 11.45 and a PB ratio of 1.21 [1] Economic Insights - The Ministry of Finance reported a 1.3% year-on-year decline in national public budget revenue from January to October, with tax revenue down 4.5% [8] - Non-tax revenue increased by 15.3%, indicating potential concerns regarding rapid growth in non-tax income [8] Industry Dynamics - The National Medical Products Administration has issued a new centralized procurement document for 62 types of drugs, indicating stricter entry requirements for companies [23] - The renewable energy sector is experiencing rapid growth, with solar power capacity increasing by 27.2% year-on-year [24] - Trendforce predicts that TSMC's CoWoS capacity will double by 2025, driven by rising demand for customized chips in AI applications [25] Company Updates - Qiaqia Food plans to repurchase shares for employee stock ownership plans, with a repurchase amount between 40 million and 80 million [30] - Aojing Medical's subsidiary has received a medical device registration certificate for absorbable collagen hemostatic sponges, enhancing its product portfolio [31] - Sanxin Medical has obtained medical device registration for blood dialysis filters and disposable right heart suction heads, expanding its product offerings [32]

Group 1 - The report highlights a short-term market weakness influenced by increased geopolitical risks and a temporary vacuum in domestic policy, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.91% and the ChiNext Index by 3.03% during the week [16][20][26] - The report suggests that despite short-term volatility, macroeconomic policy remains stimulative, and the overall market trend has not been invalidated, indicating potential structural opportunities in the market [16][26] - The report emphasizes the importance of long-term value recovery for companies trading below their net asset value, particularly focusing on state-owned enterprises in sectors such as banking, real estate, and transportation [21][24] Group 2 - The report notes that the technology growth sector is expected to remain a strong market theme, driven by advancements in AI applications and supportive policies for platform economies [19][26] - It mentions that the precious metals sector is stabilizing, with geopolitical risks and the potential for a U.S. interest rate cut contributing to its attractiveness [26] - The report indicates that the economic recovery is still fragile, with various tax revenues declining, suggesting that the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid [20][26] Group 3 - The report provides insights into market valuations, stating that the overall valuation of A-shares is relatively cheap, with the Shanghai Composite Index's P/E ratio at 14.03 times, which is in the lower historical percentile [37] - It highlights that the technology sector, particularly the STAR Market, is experiencing high valuations, with a P/E ratio of 83 times, indicating a significant divergence in market segments [37] - The report also discusses the trend of increasing foreign capital inflows into the market, which is expected to enhance market liquidity and support valuations [42][43]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][5][7] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector experienced a significant decline in October, with the index dropping by 9.44%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 6.29 percentage points, ranking last among 31 primary industries [21][24] - The sector's current PE (TTM) is 21.51, indicating a rebound to near the -1X standard deviation level, positioned at the 16.21% percentile since 2010 [29][31] - The report anticipates marginal improvements in fundamentals and valuations as economic policies take effect, suggesting a focus on companies with valuation advantages and those expected to exceed inventory preparation for the Spring Festival [7][9] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Monthly Review - The food and beverage sector saw a deep decline in October, with the index down 9.44%, significantly lagging behind the CSI 300 index [21][24] - Only the snack segment showed positive performance, while beer, liquor, and processed foods experienced declines exceeding 10% [24][28] 2. Important Economic Data Tracking - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 45,396 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations [35] - The CPI increased by 0.3% year-on-year in October, with food prices rising by 2.9% [38][60] - Retail sales of essential food items showed resilience, with a year-on-year growth of 10.1% in October [50][52] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the liquor sector such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as high-dividend stocks like Yangyuan Beverage and Qiaqia Food [9] - Growth-oriented stocks in the snack sector, including Jinzhai Food and Yanjin Food, are recommended, along with beverage companies like Dongpeng Beverage [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an industry rating of "in line with the market" [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The beauty market is showing significant recovery due to extended promotional periods, low base effects from the previous year, and increased consumer bundling behavior. Domestic brands, particularly Proya, are solidifying their leading positions, although competition is intensifying as international brands return to the market [11][22]. - The report highlights the strong performance of the skincare and cosmetics categories, with notable growth in GMV across major platforms like Tmall, Douyin, and Kuaishou [10][22]. - The medical aesthetics sector is benefiting from favorable policies aimed at high-quality development, with leading companies expanding their international presence [23]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - The report maintains an "in line with the market" rating for the beauty industry, noting a significant recovery in the beauty market driven by promotional activities and consumer behavior [11][22]. - Domestic brands are gaining strength, with Proya leading in both Tmall and Douyin channels, while international brands are also making a comeback [22]. 2. Market Performance Review - The beauty and personal care index rose by 4.92% from October 16 to November 15, 2024, outperforming the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 indices [26]. - Among the sub-sectors, cosmetics saw an 11.91% increase, while personal care products and medical aesthetics rose by 7.92% and 8.3%, respectively [26]. 3. Industry Information Tracking - In October 2024, the combined GMV for skincare and cosmetics on Tmall, Douyin, and Kuaishou reached 241.47 billion yuan, 251.99 billion yuan, and 55.45 billion yuan, reflecting substantial month-on-month growth [10][42]. - The report notes that the skincare category experienced a remarkable growth rate of 232.8% on Tmall, while cosmetics also saw significant increases [10][42]. - The competitive landscape is shifting, with a concentration of market share among top brands, particularly Proya, L'Oreal, and Lancôme in skincare, and brands like Shiseido and NARS in cosmetics [10][42].

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.07% to close at 3370.40 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.07% to 10819.88 points [5][11] - The total market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 638576 billion, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 11.79 and a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.25 [5][11] - The overall trading volume in the market was 16558.26 billion, an increase of 42.49 billion compared to the previous trading day [5][11] Economic Insights - From January to October, China's non-financial direct investment abroad grew by 10.6% year-on-year, totaling 1158.3 billion USD [11] - The People's Bank of China conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 4701 billion for a 7-day term to maintain liquidity in the banking system [12] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need for increased R&D investment, focusing on computing power, models, and data to strengthen key technological foundations [13][15] Industry Dynamics - NVIDIA reported a revenue of 35.1 billion USD for the third quarter of fiscal year 2025, a 17% increase from the previous quarter and a 94% increase year-on-year [19] - STMicroelectronics announced a collaboration with Huahong Semiconductor for 40nm process MCU production, enhancing service capabilities for mainland China clients [19][22] - The Ministry of Commerce is planning to advance next year's vehicle trade-in policies, with over 400 million applications for vehicle scrapping and replacement recorded [23] Company Updates - Dongpeng Beverage announced progress in external investments, signing a land use rights transfer contract for an industrial site of 119,200 square meters [24] - Enhua Pharmaceutical received a drug registration certificate for its Mivacurium injection, enhancing its product pipeline in the anesthesia field [25] - Midea Group is set to acquire controlling interest in Toshiba Elevator China, with the transaction expected to complete within the year [26] Regional Economic Developments - Hunan Province is implementing zero-based budgeting reforms to enhance fiscal management and improve the efficiency of financial policies [30] - Sains plans to sign a cooperation agreement with Jilin Zijin Copper Industry for the construction and operation of a rhenium ammonium production line [27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market" [2][6] Core Insights - The beauty and personal care industry showed significant recovery during the Double Eleven shopping festival, with domestic beauty brands performing exceptionally well. The estimated GMV for beauty products reached 123.78 billion yuan, representing a 27% increase compared to last year's Double Eleven [5][6] - Tmall remains the dominant platform for beauty sales, capturing 50.6% of the market share, followed by Douyin at 26.6% and JD at 11.8%. The growth rates for these platforms were 25.8%, 21.6%, and 10.5% respectively [5][6] - Domestic brand Proya led the beauty sales rankings on both Tmall and Douyin, with sales growth of over 10% and 60% respectively. Other domestic brands like Han Shu also performed well, surpassing international brands in sales [6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The beauty and personal care sector experienced a notable rebound during the Double Eleven event, with a significant increase in sales compared to previous periods [4][5] - The overall performance of the beauty sector compared to the CSI 300 index showed a decline of 11.67% over 12 months, while the index itself increased by 10.80% [4] Key Stocks - Proya: EPS for 2023 is 3.01 yuan with a PE ratio of 30.66; projected EPS for 2024 is 3.82 yuan with a PE of 24.16; and for 2025, EPS is expected to be 4.75 yuan with a PE of 19.43, rated as "Buy" [4] - Runben: EPS for 2023 is 0.56 yuan with a PE of 43.21; projected EPS for 2024 is 0.73 yuan with a PE of 33.15; and for 2025, EPS is expected to be 0.91 yuan with a PE of 26.59, also rated as "Buy" [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and the rating has been maintained [2][9]. Core Viewpoints - The battery market continues to show rapid growth, with production and sales maintaining a strong upward trend. The oversupply situation is gradually improving, and leading companies in the industry are excelling in technology, scale, cost, and customer relationships [9]. - In October 2024, China's total battery production reached 113.1 GWh, representing a month-on-month increase of 1.6% and a year-on-year increase of 45.5%. The cumulative production from January to October was 847.5 GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 38.3% [5]. - The market remains an effective incremental market, with a focus on leading companies such as CATL, EVE Energy, Tianneng Battery, Keda Technology, and Zhongke Electric [9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The new energy battery sector has shown a significant year-on-year sales growth of 47.4% in October, with total sales reaching 110.3 GWh. The sales of power batteries accounted for 79.1 GWh, which is 71.7% of total sales [6]. - The export of batteries in October increased by 38.6% year-on-year, totaling 19.9 GWh, with power battery exports at 10.8 GWh [6]. Production and Market Share - In October, lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 79.1% of total battery production, benefiting from low costs and high safety, indicating a steady increase in market share [5]. - The domestic power battery installation volume reached 59.2 GWh in October, with a year-on-year growth of 51.0% [7]. Key Stocks and Valuation - Key stocks in the industry include CATL, Zhongke Electric, Keda Technology, and EVE Energy, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth and favorable price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2023A, 2024E, and 2025E [4][9].

证券研究报告 晨会纪要 晨会纪要 2024 年 11 月 21 日 | --- | --- | |------------|--------| | | | | 市场数据 | | | 指数名称 | 涨跌 % | | 上证指数 | 0.66 | | 深证成指 | 0.78 | | 创业板指 | 0.50 | | 科创 50 | 0.45 | | 北证 50 | 3.07 | | 沪深 300 | 0.22 | A 股市场概览 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-----------------|--------------------|-----------|-----------| | 类别 | 总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 流通市 值 ( 亿元 ) | 市盈率 PE | 市净率 PB | | 上证指数 | 638219 | 495750 | 11.80 | 1.25 | | 深证成指 | 223406 | 190612 | 22.10 | 2.25 | | 创业板指 | 60393 | 49008 | 33.09 | 4.17 | | 科创 50 | 35 ...