Market Overview - The sales volume of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased significantly by 139.15% week-on-week, but decreased by 12.02% year-on-year during the week of October 7-13, 2024[2] - The transaction area for first, second, and third-tier cities increased by 153.63%, 83.62%, and 266.97% respectively on a week-on-week basis[2] Policy Measures - The central government has shifted its regulatory stance from "risk prevention" to "stabilizing the market," indicating a more proactive approach to support the real estate sector[2] - The Ministry of Finance announced on October 12, 2024, that it will utilize special bonds and tax policies to support the stabilization of the real estate market[12] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on state-owned enterprises in infrastructure, such as China State Construction and China Power Construction, as support policies continue to strengthen[3] - Large state-owned real estate companies like Vanke and Poly are expected to see marginal improvements in sales due to ongoing demand stabilization efforts[3] Risks - There is a risk that the effectiveness of the policies may fall short of expectations, potentially leading to a spread of credit risks among real estate companies[3] Housing Market Dynamics - As of October 13, 2024, the cumulative transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 33.35% year-on-year, indicating a continued low absolute volume[2] - The cumulative sales area of commercial housing nationwide from January to August 2024 was approximately 606.02 million square meters, down 18.0% year-on-year, with sales revenue decreasing by 23.6%[17]

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Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 3.56% last week, closing at 3217.7 points[16] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 4.45%, ending at 10060.74 points[16] - The ChiNext Index dropped by 3.41%[16] - The Hang Seng Index declined by 8.00%[11] Fund Performance - The stock fund index increased by 16.47% over the past 60 days and 4.24% year-to-date[3] - The mixed fund index rose by 12.82% in the last 60 days and 3.00% year-to-date[3] - The bond fund index showed minimal growth of 0.19% over the last 60 days and 2.48% year-to-date[3] New Fund Issuance - A total of 21 new funds are set to be issued this week, with a total fundraising target exceeding 31 billion yuan[9] - The types of new funds include 4 ordinary stock funds and 9 mixed equity funds[9] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% year-on-year in September, with food prices increasing by 3.3%[8] - The 1-year government bond yield increased to 1.4179%, while the 10-year yield decreased to 2.1441%[13] Capital Flows - Net inflow of southbound funds reached 10.94 billion HKD last week[14] - The ETF inflow for the CSI 300 exceeded 20 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest[15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The battery market continues to experience rapid growth, with production and sales maintaining a strong upward trend. The oversupply situation is gradually improving, and leading companies in the industry chain excel in technology, scale, cost, and customer relationships [7] - The report highlights key companies to focus on within the battery industry chain, including CATL, EVE Energy, Tianneng Battery, Keda Technology, Hunan YN, and Zhongke Electric [7] Summary by Sections Battery Production and Sales Data - In September, China's battery production reached 111.3 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 9.9% and a year-on-year increase of 43.3% [5][6] - The cumulative battery production from January to September was 734.4 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.3% [5] - The sales volume of batteries in September was 103.9 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 11.9% and a year-on-year increase of 44.8% [5] Battery Types and Market Share - In September, lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 75.6% of the total battery production, while ternary batteries made up 24.2% [5] - The report indicates that lithium iron phosphate batteries remain the mainstream battery type due to their low cost and high safety, with a steady increase in market share [5] Export and Installation Data - Battery exports in September totaled 20.2 GWh, with a month-on-month increase of 20.7% and a year-on-year increase of 37.8% [5] - The domestic battery installation volume reached 54.5 GWh in September, with a year-on-year increase of 49.6% [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Linglong Tire (601966.SH) [1][2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 16.50 billion to 17.50 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 72% to 82% [5] - The overall sales volume of the company has shown a growth trend, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 11% in the first three quarters [5] - The company plans to invest an additional 4.62 billion yuan in expanding its Serbia base, which is expected to become a significant growth point for future performance [5] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Current price is 19.62 yuan with a market cap of 28,910.52 million yuan [2] Financial Performance - Forecasted revenue for 2024 is 225.64 billion yuan, with net profits of 22.56 billion yuan [4][5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.53 yuan for 2024, increasing to 2.20 yuan by 2026 [4][5] Sales and Profitability - The company received approximately 300 million yuan in anti-dumping tax refunds, which is expected to enhance non-recurring income [5] - The gross profit margin is projected to improve, with a net profit margin of 25.20% expected in 2024 [7] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively optimizing product upgrades and making structural adjustments in domestic and international retail and supporting markets [5] - The Serbia factory is entering a phase of capacity release, supporting rapid growth in overseas markets [5]

Core Insights - The A-share market has entered a phase of upward momentum driven by the "924" policy package and the September Politburo meeting, with a significant trend reversal occurring within just five trading days [2][7][9] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September exceeded expectations, with an increase of 254,000 jobs, indicating resilience in the U.S. labor market and enhancing expectations for an economic "soft landing" [2][7][9] Equity Market - A-shares are expected to maintain an upward trend post-National Day, but caution is advised regarding potential volatility due to rapid price increases, suggesting a strategy of profit-taking at highs and re-entering during corrections [2][7][9] - Key sectors to focus on include brokerage firms, internet finance, consumer goods, real estate, and technology, which are likely to benefit from the recent policy changes and market recovery [2][7][9] Bond Market - The bond market is experiencing a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with a notable decline in the attractiveness of bond investments due to historical low interest rates and recent policy shifts, leading to a cautious outlook for the short term [2][8][9] - The bond prices are expected to fluctuate downward from high levels, with a gradual return to fundamentals as market sentiment stabilizes [8][9] Commodity Market - The improvement in liquidity is positively impacting commodity prices, with a broad increase across the sector, particularly in coal, iron ore, and natural gas [3][17][18] - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile due to concerns over weak demand and oversupply, while gold prices are supported by improved liquidity following the Fed's unexpected rate cuts [3][17][19] High-frequency Data Tracking - The AH share premium has decreased to 8.82%, remaining above the historical median, indicating a potential adjustment in market valuations [20] - The risk premium for the entire A-share market is at 4.25%, suggesting a favorable risk-return profile compared to historical averages [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for leading companies in the semiconductor and PCB sectors, including Huadian Co., Pengding Holdings, and Shenghong Technology [1][2]. Core Insights - The semiconductor equipment sales remain high, with a promising outlook for domestic substitution. The semiconductor sales in China showed a year-on-year increase of 19.5% in July, while global semiconductor sales increased by 18.7% [1][15]. - The PCB industry is expected to recover in 2024, with high multi-layer boards, HDI boards, and packaging substrates likely to maintain high growth rates in the medium to long term [2][44]. - The report highlights the strong performance of Taiwan's PCB industry, with a 15% year-on-year revenue growth in August, driven by AI server and FPC-related companies [2][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The report period saw the Shenwan Electronics Index increase by 9.1%, ranking 24th among Shenwan's first-level industries. The PCB Index rose by 3.9%, ranking 15th among Shenwan's third-level industries [7][12]. 2. Semiconductor Market Tracking - Semiconductor sales in China reached $152 billion in July, up 19.5% year-on-year, while global sales totaled $513 billion, up 18.7% [15][18]. - The sales of semiconductor equipment in China increased significantly, with a 61.7% year-on-year growth in Q2 2024 [22][24]. 3. PCB Industry Tracking - The PCB industry is experiencing a recovery, with Taiwan's PCB manufacturers reporting a 15% year-on-year revenue increase in August, totaling 720 billion NTD [2][44]. - The report emphasizes the growth in AI server-related multi-layer boards and FPC boards, with companies like Jincheng Electric achieving a 30% year-on-year revenue increase in August [46]. 4. Company Dynamics - Pengding Holdings reported an 8-month revenue increase of 25.56% year-on-year, while Shenghong Technology announced a share buyback plan [3][5].

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证券研究报告 晨会纪要 晨会纪要 2024 年 10 月 10 日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-------|----------|-------|-------|-------|--------| | | | | | | | | | 市场数据 | | | | | | | | 指数名称 | | 收盘 | | | | 涨跌 % | | 上证指数 | | 3258.86 | | | | -6.62 | | 深证成指 | | 10557.81 | | | | -8.15 | | 创业板指 | | 2280.10 | | | | -10.59 | | 科创 50 | | 997.85 | | | | -2.55 | | 北证 50 | | 965.37 | | | | -12.11 | | 沪深 300 | | 3955.98 | | | | -7.05 | A 股市场概览 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-----------------|-------------- ...

Market Overview - The sales volume of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 66.56% week-on-week and 18.27% year-on-year during the period from September 30 to October 6, 2024[12] - First-tier cities showed a significant improvement, with sales area increasing by 35.16% year-on-year[12] - From January 1 to October 6, 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities decreased by 33.93% year-on-year, indicating a continuous narrowing of the decline[12] Policy Impact - Following the September Central Political Bureau meeting, a series of supportive measures for the real estate market were introduced, including adjustments to housing loan policies and the cancellation of purchase restrictions in major cities[12][13] - Guangzhou announced the cancellation of all housing purchase restrictions effective September 30, 2024, to promote market stability[13] Investment Recommendations - Continued focus on state-owned enterprises in infrastructure, such as China State Construction and China Power Construction, is advised due to ongoing real estate support policies[3] - Large state-owned real estate companies like Vanke and Poly are expected to see marginal improvements in sales as demand stabilizes[3] - Private enterprises on the financing "white list," such as Longfor and Gemdale, may experience credit recovery amid ongoing financing coordination mechanisms[3] Risks - The effectiveness of policies may fall short of expectations, and there is a risk of credit issues spreading among real estate companies[4]