应,短期内物价水平或仍处于较为低迷的状态。因此,尽早通过进一步的货币宽松,降 2024年02月21日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观点评 降息背景二：银行资金成本下行为 LPR 调降挪出空间 . 入市雷速倾 证券研究报告 [证券研究报告] 综上,从稳物价、稳信贷、稳经济以及稳妥有效防范化解重点领域金融风险等多方 面需求来看，本次调降政策利率是必要的，也是及时的。央行行长潘功胜在 2024 年 1 月召开的国新办新闻发布会上表示,2024年,人民银行在货币政策工具的使用中,将强 化跨周期和逆周期调节，为经济增长和物价稳定营造良好的货币金融环境。在内需不足 的基本面没有得到根本扭转的前提下,年内稳增长政策发力离不开货币政策的支持。另 一方面,从近年来的 LPR 走势来看,1年期 LPR 自 2022年以来调整了3次,5年期及 以上 LPR 则是下调了 4 次，基本上保持每年调整 2 次的节奏。因此年内政策利率或仍 有进一步调整的空间。 风险提示:国内政策推行不及预期;地缘政治事件超预期;海外流动性收紧超预期; 国内需求端恢复速度显著偏慢 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 证券研究报告 图2 我国实际利率水平处于较高 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 2910.544, while the CSI 300 Index was at 3403.8078, and the Shenzhen Component Index reached 8902.3337, reflecting overall market growth[4] - Northbound capital showed a net inflow of 16.082 billion RMB, indicating increased market activity[6] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a total of 1.316 trillion RMB in reverse repos, with 1.733 trillion RMB maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 417 billion RMB for the week[39] - The upcoming tax payment deadline on February 23 is expected to impact liquidity, despite February not being a traditional tax month[53] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The U.S. January CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.9%, while the PPI increased by 0.9% year-on-year, also above the forecast of 0.6%[38] - In China, January's new RMB loans totaled 4.92 trillion RMB, and the social financing scale increased by 6.5 trillion RMB, both surpassing market expectations[38] Sector Performance - The healthcare, defense, and beauty sectors outperformed, with gains of 10.31%, 9.26%, and 9.01% respectively, while construction and comprehensive sectors saw declines of 0.69% and 0.58%[6] - The average ticket price for movie tickets during the Spring Festival dropped to 50 RMB from 52.3 RMB last year, indicating a trend towards lower prices in the entertainment sector[74] Future Outlook - The expectation for U.S. interest rate cuts has been pushed back, with the Federal Reserve indicating a need for patience regarding rate adjustments[12] - The report suggests that the current economic recovery phase may continue, with a focus on stable monetary policy and support for the real economy[53]

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Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The automotive industry is undergoing a transformation towards electrification, intelligence, and digitalization, with intelligent chassis systems becoming a key focus for development [2][3] - The intelligent chassis consists of perception, decision-making, and execution layers, which are essential for achieving high-level autonomous driving [3][6] - The market for intelligent chassis products is expected to grow significantly, with the electric vehicle intelligent chassis aftermarket projected to reach 37.84 billion by 2023, up from 12.77 billion in 2021, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 64.56% [12] Summary by Sections Intelligent Chassis - Intelligent chassis is crucial for high-level autonomous driving and consists of perception, decision-making, and execution layers [3][6] - The execution layer includes systems like electronic brake control and intelligent suspension, which are essential for vehicle performance [3][9] - The market for intelligent chassis is expected to expand as electric vehicle ownership increases, driving demand for component maintenance and replacement [12] Key Recommendations - Recommended companies include: Berteli, Top Group, Baolong Technology, Zhongding Holdings, and Jingwei Hengrun, which are leading players in the intelligent chassis sector [2][12] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on domestic suppliers that are well-positioned to benefit from the shift towards intelligent chassis systems [9][12] Industry Tracking - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking several key industries, including lithium battery equipment, photovoltaic equipment, battery swapping, energy storage, semiconductor equipment, automation, hydrogen energy, and engineering machinery [2][13][14] - The lithium battery equipment sector is expected to see average annual demand exceeding 100 billion from 2021 to 2025, with domestic companies showing significant advantages [2][13] - The photovoltaic equipment sector is experiencing growth due to technological advancements and price adjustments, which are expected to stimulate downstream demand [13][14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating that the growth level of the industry is expected to be higher than that of the CSI 300 index over the next six months [10][53]. Core Insights - During the Spring Festival, pig prices remained low, which is expected to continue driving industry capacity reduction. The price of piglets has risen significantly, and the overall supply-demand situation remains loose. The report suggests focusing on leading companies with cost advantages in large-scale farming, such as Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs [3][10]. - The price of broiler chicks has shown strength, with a significant increase compared to earlier in the year. The report anticipates continued strong performance in the white chicken sector due to upstream breeding disruptions and efficiency factors [6][10]. - The prices of major feed raw materials have continued to decline, improving profit expectations for the feed sector. The report highlights the potential for improved profitability in the feed industry due to easing cost pressures [6][10]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry - In January 2024, the total sales volume of pigs from ten listed companies was 7.1157 million heads, a slight decrease of 0.71% month-on-month. The average price of pigs was 14.27 yuan/kg, down 0.49% from the previous month [7][8]. - The report indicates that the industry is experiencing ongoing losses, with self-breeding and purchased pig farming profits at -108.15 yuan/head and 34.62 yuan/head, respectively [7][10]. Broiler Industry - The price of broiler chicks reached 5.4 yuan each as of February 17, 2024, a 145.5% increase from the beginning of the year. The report suggests that the white chicken sector is likely to see continued strong performance [6][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on integrated companies in the white feather broiler industry, such as Shengnong Development and Yisheng Biotechnology [6][10]. Feed Industry - The USDA's February report indicated a global increase in soybean and corn inventories, leading to a decline in feed raw material prices. As of February 15, 2024, the closing price for soybean meal was 333.2 cents/bushel, down 4.0% from the previous week [6][10]. - The report suggests that the feed sector's profitability is expected to improve due to the downward trend in raw material prices, recommending attention to leading feed companies like Haida Group [6][10]. Industry Trends - The report notes that the overall livestock industry is under pressure, with ongoing capacity reduction expected. It highlights the potential for investment opportunities in the pig farming sector, particularly for companies with clear cost advantages [10][19]. - The report also discusses the impact of geopolitical factors on global grain supply and demand, emphasizing the need for attention to agricultural technology advancements and the potential for domestic seed industry growth [11][19].

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